EBC Props
@EBCPropLocks
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After putting out AFL player props for a few rounds, I’ve decided to create a seperate account for Australian based sports (
@EBCPropLocksAUS
). The majority of player markets aren’t available in the US, which means a lot of plays are only relevant to my Aussie followers.
4
2
31
Fox (SAC) O27.5 points ($1.87, -115)
Fox comes into this game averaging 29/9 points per game on the season. He is over this line in 7/10 games, putting up 18, 39, 37, 28, 28, 43, 30, 14, 26 and 36 points. Across this span, hes seen 18+ FGAs in 9/10 and 22+ in 5/10. He is the
2
10
339
Ausar Thompson (DET) O11.5 reb + ast ($1.87, -115)
Shoutout
@ActuaryBetsHub
for getting on this first.
Ausar comes into this one averaging 9.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. This is on 14.8 rebound chances per game, (
#2nd
out of all guards) and 4.8 potential assists per
10
16
322
SGA (OKC) O10.5 RA ($1.84, -119)
SGA comes into this one averaging 12.4 reb + ast on the season. He’s over this line in 7/L9, recording 14, 13, 12, 11, 11, 9, 13, 7 & 17 RA. His two misses came in blowouts against GSW (9 RA, 29 min) and POR (7 RA, 23 min). Over the last nine
7
10
313
Jokic (DEN) O12.5 rebounds ($1.83, -120) (Lads)
Jokic comes into this one averaging 13.7 rebounds per game on 21.5 rebound chances per game. He’s covered the line in 7/L10, recording 13, 12, 14, 10, 10, 14, 16, 14, 13 and 21 rebounds.
He now comes up against the Clippers, a
3
7
297
Jokic (DEN) O12.5 rebounds ($1.90, -110)
Jokic comes into this one averaging 13.9 rebounds per game, on a league high 22 rebound chances per game. He’s covered this line in 8/11 on the season and 6/L6, hauling in 13, 12, 14, 10, 10, 14, 16, 14, 13, 21 and 16 rebounds.
He comes
0
10
289
Aaron Gordon (DEN) O20.5 PR ($1.80, -125) (PB)
Pretty much a system play without Murray and seeing a good matchup. He’s covered this line in 8/L10, recording 26, 27, 27, 25, 24, 25, 22, 15, 20 & 25 PR. Across this span he’s averaging 12.6 rebound chances per game.
He’s covered
2
16
283
Kristaps Porzingis (BOS) O2.5 3PM ($2.45, +145) (Bet365)
Porzingis (BOS) O3.5 3PM ($4.40, +340) (0.25U)
Porzingis comes into this one averaging 1.9 3PM on 4.8 3PT attempts a game. He’s only covered this line in 2/9 on the season, but this matchup suits Tingis Pingus perfectly.
6
7
268
Paul George (LAC) O8.5 reb + assist ($1.80, -125) (PB)
PG comes into this one averaging 5.8 rebounds per game and 3.7 assists per game. He’s covered this line in 7/L10, recording 14, 7, 10, 8, 5, 14, 10, 11, 11 & 11 RA.
Since Russ was moved to the bench, he’s covered in 3/3,
1
9
269
Anthony Davis (LAL) O23.5 points ($1.95, -105)
Davis comes into this averaging 22.1 points per game on the season. He’s over this line in 4/L9 games, putting up 18, 30, 19, 9, 16, 27, 26, 10 & 32 points. Across this span he’s attempts 15+ FGs in 4/9 games. His unders came
4
12
260
Luka Doncic (DAL) O7.5 assists ($1.80, -125) (TAB)
Doncic comes into this one averaging 8.1 assists per game this season. He’s over this line in 8/12 games and 7/L10, dishing out 12, 10, 8, 9, 6, 8, 6, 9, 2 & 10 assists. He’s averaging 15.5 potential assists on the season.
This
5
5
251
Randle (NYK) O12.5 reb + ast ($1.74, -135) (Bet365)
Randle has covered the line in all three games this season, recording 18, 21 and 16 RA. Over this stretch, he’s averaging 18 reb chances per game (12th highest) and 9.7 potential assists per game (2nd highest team wide).
1
7
251
Brandon Ingram (NOP) O5.5 assists ($1.88, -113) (Dabble)
Ingram comes into this one averaging 5.2 assists per game on the season. He’s over in 3/L6, dishing out 6, 5, 5, 7, 8 & 4 assists. Over this stretch he’s averaging 12.8 potential assists.
CJ is obviously out, so Ingram
7
7
241
Jabari Smith Jr (HOU) O23.5 PRA ($1.90, -110)
Smith Jr comes into this one averaging 23.4 PRA on the season. He’s covered this line in 9/L10 games, logging 28, 29, 32, 27, 24, 22, 25, 24, 26 & 31 PRA. Scores this span he’s attempted 10+ FGAs in 6/10 games.
He comes up against
5
9
233
Domantis Sabonis (SAC) O12.5 rebounds ($1.90, -110)
Sabonis comes into this one averaging 15 rebounds per game on the season, covering in 2/L3. He’s hauled in 12, 18 and 15 rebounds, averaging 23.3 rebound chances per game (tied highest in the league alongside AD).
He gets a
1
9
231
Jokic (DEN) O9.5 assists ($1.92, -108) (Dabble)
Jokic comes into this one averaging 9.8 assists per game on 14.7 potential assists per game. He’s coveted this in 5/L7 games, dishing out 12, 8, 9, 15, 16, 14 & 10 assists.
Like many others, Jokic at home is a bit of a system play
6
12
224
Scottie Barnes (TOR) O33.5 PRA ($1.87, -115) (PB)
Barnes comes into this one averaging 35.8 PRA, on 10 potential assists (2nd highest team wide) and 15.5 rebound chances (team high) per game. He’s covered this line in 30, 42, 37, 34, 38, 40, 47, 35 & 19 PRA. His recent miss came
5
4
211
Haliburton (IND) O10.5 assists ($1.80, -125) (Bet365)
Haliburton (IND) 12+ assists ($2.25, +125) (PB) (0.25U)
Hali comes into this one averaging 12.2 assists per game on the season, on a league high 20.3 potential assists per game. He’s covered this line in 7/L9, dishing out
2
5
208
De'Aaron Fox (SAC) O26.5 points ($1.87, -113)
Fox comes into this one averaging 30.5 PPG on the season. He’s covered this in 3/L4 games, putting up 18, 39, 37 & 28 points. Across this span he’s attempted 18, 28, 24 & 20 FGAs.
He now comes up against the Lakers, who he recently
2
11
206
Sengun (HOU) O9.5 rebounds ($1.76, -131) (Bet365)
Sengun comes into this game covering in just 1/3 games, but I think this is a great spot for him to be crashing the glass. This season, he’s had 8, 14 and 5 rebound games, averaging 16 potential rebounds per game.
He gets a
0
9
204
Gobert (MIN) O11.5 rebounds ($1.77, -129) (PB)
Gobert comes into this one averaging 13.6 rebounds per game on 23.4 rebound chances. He’s covered this line in 6/L7 games, recording 13, 14, 13, 12, 10, 12 & 21 rebounds.
He comes up against a Spurs team who have been struggling
1
4
201
Zion Williamson (NOP) O30.5 points + assists ($1.95, -105)
Zion comes into this averaging 27.6 PA on the season. He’s covered this line in 4/L7 and 4/L4, recording 25, 22, 24, 32, 31, 31 & 37 PA. Across this span he’s averaging 11 potential assists per game.
He now comes up
7
8
196
Mitchell (CLE) O28.5 points ($1.83, -120) (Bet365)
Mitchell comes into this one averaging 28.7 ppg on the season. He’s over this line in 4/L9 games, putting up 27, 43, 26, 30, 38, 31, 20, 21 & 22 points. His recent misses have come against the Knicks (3rd best def rating), OKC
3
4
194
Maxey (PHI) O32.5 PRA ($1.83, -120)
Maxey comes into this one averaging 37.6 PRA on the season. He’s covered this line in 6/L7, putting up 43, 47, 40, 23, 37, 34 & 39 PRA. Over this stretch he’s averaging 11.9 potential assists and 8.0 rebound chances per game.
He gets a great
2
4
195
Sabonis (SAC) O19.5 RA ($1.77, - 130) (PB)
Sabonis comes into this one averaging 19.9 RA on 19.8 rebound chances and 13 potential assists per game. He’s covered this line in 4/L10, recording 19, 19, 13, 20, 26, 19, 23, 21, 19 and 18 RA. Last game, he had 18 RA on a combined 32
4
7
192
Jalen Brunson (NYK) O23.5 points ($1.82, -122) (Dabble)
Brunson comes into this one averaging 24.1 ppg on the season. He’s covered this line in 7/L8, putting up 26, 24, 32, 32, 25, 24, 35 & 12 points. I spoke this over with
@Travis_Frase
earlier and we both like the spot for
3
6
187
Ayton (POR) O13.5 points ($1.80, -125)
Ayton comes into this one averaging 12.6 points per game this season, not really living up to the self proclaimed ‘DominAyton’ nickname he gave himself. While he started off the season slow, he’s picked up as of late covering this line in
5
6
187
LaMelo Ball (CHA) O9.5 assists ($1.80, -125) (Bet365)
Ball comes into this one averaging 9.3 assists per game on the season. He’s covered the line in 3/L6, dishing out 10, 9, 8, 5, 11 & 13 assists.
He’s averaging 13.7 potential assists, however, Rozier is out again. Last game,
0
6
183
Aaron Gordon (DEN) O23.5 PRA ($1.80, -125) (PB)
Gordon comes into this game averaging 22.6 PRA on the season. He’s over this line in 4/L7, recording 27, 15, 14, 30, 8, 32 & 32 PRA.
Jamal Murray is out in this one. In the last 10 games where Murray has missed, Gordon is
3
9
184
Franz Wagner (ORL) O22.5 points ($1.88, -113)
Wagner comes into this averaging 20.1 ppg on the season. He’s only over this line in 3/L9 games, logging 20, 14, 27, 19, 17, 8, 15, 29 & 24 points. However, I like this as a buy low spot after a stretch of tough defences.
His
5
5
182
SGA (OKC) U31.5 points ($1.85, -117)
SGA comes into this one averaging 29.6 points per game on the season. He’s under this line in 5/L9 games, putting up 20, 30, 43, 33, 35, 28, 24, 40 & 28 points. His overs game against the Cavs (most points to opp PGs), Kings, Suns (11th worst
2
8
178
Siakam (TOR) O20.5 points ($1.80, -125) (Bet365)
Siakam comes into this one averaging 19.8 points per game on the season. While he’s only over in 5/L11 (31, 17, 39, 11, 23, 23, 16, 36, 18, 18 & 17 points), I think this is a matchup that very much suits his skill set. His recent
5
2
180
Anthony Towns (MIN) O7.5 rebounds ($1.82, -122) (Lads)
KAT comes into this one averaging 10 rebounds per game, on 16.7 potential rebounds per game. He’s covered the line in 3/3 games on the season, hauling in 10 rebounds in all three games.
He comes up against the Nuggets, who
1
13
178
Jalen Green (HOU) O19.5 points ($1.91, -109)
Green comes into this averaging 19.1 points per game on the season. He’s covered this line in 7/L10 games, putting up 10, 22, 21, 23, 10, 23, 28, 25, 9 and 20 points. He’s seen 15+ FGA in 6/L8 and 3/L4 games.
He comes up against the
5
4
179
Embiid (PHI) O27.5 points ($1.74) (365)
This line just simply seems to low for someone who has attempted 21+ FGA in all three games this season. He’s covered this line in 2/3 games (24, 34, 35).
He comes up against the Raptors, who are allowing the 6th most points to
1
7
179
Haliburton (IND) O11.5 assists ($1.85, -117) (TAB/DK)
Hali comes into this one averaging 11.6 assists per game on a league high 19.9 potential assists per game. He’s covered the line in 6/L8 games, dishing out 13, 13, 12, 8, 13, 10, 17, 15 & 3 assists.
This is the perfect buy
3
4
180
Tatum (BOS) O25.5 points ($1.86, -115) (365)
Tatum is coming off a 22/23 season where he averaged 30.1 ppg on 21.1 FGA (46.6% FG). He cleared this line last season close in close to 74% of his games. This season, he has covered this line in 2/3 games, putting up 34, 22 and 33
1
7
173
Sabonis (SAC) O31.5 PR ($1.87, -114) (PB)
Sabonis comes into this averaging 31.9 PR on the season, on 20.4 rebound chances per game (3rd highest). He’s over this line in 6/L10 games, putting up 34, 37, 27, 33, 26, 16, 38, 30, 32 and 45. His misses have come against the Lakers
2
3
167
Sexton (UTA) O19.5 points ($1.86, -115) (Bet365)
Averaging 17.5 PPG. Covered in 8/L9 games, putting up 22, 20, 27, 30, 31, 28, 22, 11 & 24 points. He’s seen 17+ FGAs in 4/L6 games.
He faces a Nets team allowing the 12th most points and 10th most 3PM to opposition Point Guards.
4
5
168
James Harden (LAC) U6.5 assists ($1.86) (Bet365)
Harden comes into this game averaging 4.2 assists per game post the Clippers trade. Across this span he’s under this line in 5/5 this season, dishing out 6, 5, 3, 3 & 4 assists. Across this span he’s averaging just 9.8 potential
3
2
166
Paolo Banchero (ORL) O19.5 points ($1.87, -114) (PB)
Comes into this one averaging 18.3 points per game on the season. Has covered this line in 4/L8, putting up 30, 25, 22, 17, 26, 19, 17 & 13 points.
He comes up against a Pacers team allowing the 8th most points to opposition
1
9
168
Banchero (ORL) O22.5 points ($1.83, -120)
Banchero comes into this averaging 20.7 ppg on the season. He’s covered this line in 5/L9, logging 28, 19, 42, 24, 20, 14, 36, 10 & 23 points.
His misses came against:
- BKN (8th least Pts to opp PFs)
- CLE (11th least Pts to opp PFs +
6
4
163
Tatum (BOS) O25.5 points ($1.88, -113)
Tatum comes into this one averaging 27.5 ppg on the season. He’s covered this line in 4/L10 (17, 20, 45, 23, 26, 34, 21, 21, 32 and 25 points, hence the discounted line. Across this span, he’s attempted 16+ FGs in 8/10 and 18+ in 5/10.
He
5
6
162
Butler (MIA) U10.5 RA ($1.80, -125) (PB)
Butler comes into this one averaging 9 RA on the season, on 9.2 rebound chances and 8.5 potential assists per game. He’s under in 9/L9 games, recording 8, 10, 9, 10, 5, 10, 9, 8 & 5 RA.
He comes up against the Bulls, who he just had 5
3
5
158
Aaron Gordon (DEN) O26.5 PRA ($1.95, -105) (Bet365)
Running this back after Gordon dropped 33 PRA last game. Murray should be out again.
#GamblingTwitter
Aaron Gordon (DEN) O23.5 PRA ($1.80, -125) (PB)
Gordon comes into this game averaging 22.6 PRA on the season. He’s over this line in 4/L7, recording 27, 15, 14, 30, 8, 32 & 32 PRA.
Jamal Murray is out in this one. In the last 10 games where Murray has missed, Gordon is
3
9
184
2
8
156
Jimmy Butler (MIA) U5.5 assists ($1.73, -136)
Jimmy comes into this one averaging 3.7 assists per game on the season. He’s under the line in 8/9 games on the season, dishing out 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, 6, 2, 4 & 5 assists. He’s averaging just 8.3 potential assists per game on the
1
7
148
Dennis Schroder (TOR) O12.5 points ($1.83, -116) (Bet365)
Schroder comes into this team, replacing a Van Vleet sized hole in this team. Last season, FVV attempted over 16 field goals a game, leaving a ton of shots to be re-distributed amongst the team.
In his first game,
2
6
149
Jalen Duren (DET) O10.5 rebounds ($1.85, -117) (TAB)
Duren comes into this game on the back off an off game, recording just seven rebounds and playing only 23 minutes. Prior to this game, he had played 32+ minutes in all previous games, hauling in 14, 17 and 15 rebounds. This
0
9
148
OG Anunoby (NYK) O14.5 points ($1.86, -115)
Still feels weird seeing OG in a Knicks jersey, but he is exactly what this team needed. He’s covered this line in 3/L4 and in his first game as a Knick, putting up 17 points (7/12 FG) in 36 minutes.
He comes up against the Bulls, who
4
8
143
Pittman (IND) O6.5 receptions ($1.77, -130) (Bet365)
Pittman has covered this line in 5/L5 and 6/L7, logging 9, 2, 8, 8, 8, 10 and 11 receptions. Across this span he has seen incredible volume, having 14, 5, 13, 8, 12, 13 and 16 targets. He’s been an elite WR this year, ranking
0
8
144
Luka Doncic (DAL) O31.5 points ($1.86, -115) (PB)
Averaging 33.6 PPG. Covered in 4/L6 games, putting up 39, 19, 41, 34, 31 & 33 points. 21+ FGAs in 6/L6 and 24+ in 3/L6 games.
Playing a home game, where he has better output and splits:
- Home: 34.8 PPG, 49.5% FG
- Road: 32.4
3
6
143
Quickley (TOR) O5.5 assists ($1.80, -125) (PB)
Covered in 5/L9 games, dishing out 5, 8, 10, 5, 6, 3, 9, 3 & 11 assists. Since the Siakam trade, he’s averaging 12 potential assists per game.
He faces a Memphis team allowing the 3rd most assists to opposition point guards over
2
5
135
Brown (BOS) O20.5 pts ($1.82, -122)
Brown comes into this one averaging 22.5 ppg on the season, covering in 2/4 games (11, 27, 36 & 16 points). Last game, he played just 25 minutes due to blowout. White is also out in this one.
Brown has covered this in 3/L3 (34, 26 & 35
3
4
134
Jalen Johnson (ATL) O28.5 PRA ($1.86, -115)
Johnson comes into this averaging 26.1 PRA on the season. He’s slowly built to be an integral part of this offence. In games where he’s seen 30+ minutes, he’s covered in 8/12, putting up 20, 36, 30, 30, 22, 23, 30, 30, 16, 35, 41 & 39
2
3
134
Luka Doncic (DAL) O33.5 points ($1.86, -115) (Bet365)
Averaging 33.6 PPG this season, clearing in 2/L6. Across this span he’s put up 19, 41, 34, 31, 33 & 33 points. He’s seen 20+ FGAs in his last six games and 24+ in three out of his last six.
He now faces the Suns and the
4
8
133
Adebayo (MIA) O10.5 rebounds ($1.83, -120)
Adebayo comes into this averaging 10.4 rebounds per game on 16.6 rebound chances per game. He’s covered this line in 5/L7 and 5/L5, grabbing 6, 7, 11, 15, 11, 16 & 15 rebounds. His misses came against the Timberwolves (least reb to
3
4
132
Anthony Davis (LAL) O22.5 points ($1.83, -120) (PB)
Going back to AD at a lower line. Last game he had 8 points in the first quarter before finishing on 17 in a blowout with no 4th quarter minutes.
AD comes into this one averaging 21.8 ppg on the season. He’s only covered in
Anthony Davis (LAL) O23.5 points ($1.95, -105)
Davis comes into this averaging 22.1 points per game on the season. He’s over this line in 4/L9 games, putting up 18, 30, 19, 9, 16, 27, 26, 10 & 32 points. Across this span he’s attempts 15+ FGs in 4/9 games. His unders came
4
12
260
5
3
131
Harden (LAC) O7.5 assists ($1.80, -125) (Bet365)
Slowly integrating into this Clippers offence, averaging 11.1 potential assists since joining. While he’s only over in 2/7 games since the trade (6, 5, 3, 3, 4, 7 & 10), I love this spot for him to go over.
Since Russ has gone to
0
4
130
LaMelo Ball (CHA) 25+ points ($1.75, -133) (TAB)
Averaging 24.9 PPG, he is over in 2/L3 since returning from injury, putting up 28, 21 and 29 points. He’s seen 14, 24 and 19 FGAs across this span.
He faces the Spurs, who have the 7th worst defensive rating and will be without
10
3
128
Evan Mobley (CLE) O25.5 points + rebounds ($1.90, -110) (Bet365)
Mobley comes into this one averaging 27 PR on the season, on 17.5 rebound chances per game (8th highest league wide). He’s covered this line in 6/L8, putting up 24, 29, 27, 24, 28, 33, 28 & 26 PR.
He now comes up
2
2
130
Giannis (MIL) O26.5 points ($1.87, -115) (PB)
Giannis comes into this one averaging 24.4 points per game on the season. He’s covered this line in just 2/7 games, putting up 23, 26, 33, 16, 22, 36 & 15 points. He’s coming off a game where he played just 22 minutes against Detroit
2
4
123
Bogdanovic (DET) 20+ points ($1.80, -125) Bet365)
Bogdanovic comes into this one averaging 20.6 ppg on the season. He’s covered this line in 4/7 games, logging 22, 22, 9, 17, 33, 17 and 24 points. Across this span he’s seen 14+ FGAs in 5/7 games.
He gets a great matchup against
4
8
123
Julius Randle (NYK) O19.5 points ($1.90, -110)
Randle comes into this averaging 15.6 points per game on the season and to be put bluntly, he is shooting tour dates currently. So far, he’s shot 5/22, 4/10, 4/15, 5/14, 3/15, 5/20 & 9/21. On the season, he’s shooting 29.9% FG and
4
3
124
Schroder (TOR) U6.5 assists ($1.90, -110) (Dabble) / (1.83, -125) (PB)
Schroder comes into this one averaging 7.3 assists per game in the season. However, after his hot start he’s actually under this line in 6/L7, dishing out 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 6 & 7 assists. While he’s averaging
2
4
123
Duren (DET) O26.5 PRA ($1.83, -120) (Bet365)
Averaging 27.4 PRA this season on 18.8 potential rebounds and 4.1 potential assists. He’s cleared this line in seven straight games, putting up 31, 31, 37, 27, 30, 27 & 29 PRA.
Cade is out in this game. Duren is over in 2/L4 games
1
5
120
Tyreek Hill (MIA) O104.5 receiving yards ($1.80, -125) (Bet365)
About as square of a play as it’ll get, but Hill is on a mission for 2k yards. He’s covered this line in 7/L12, putting up 215, 40, 157, 58, 181, 163, 88, 112, 62, 146, 102 & 157 receiving yards. Across this span,
2
12
117
Brown (BOS) O22.5 points ($1.95, -105) (PB)
Averaging 22.6 PPG. Over in just 2/L9 (10, 32, 21, 13, 13, 34, 18, 8 & 22 points), but I love this as a bounce back spot.
He faces the Pacers, who are allowing the 5th most points to opposition small forwards over their last fifteen
2
8
118
Melton (PHI) O16.5 PA ($1.86, -115)
Going back to Melton again after he cashed this just a couple days ago. Embiid out again. He’s now covered in all four games without Embiid this season, logging 19, 23, 23 & 20 PA. In games without Embiid, he’s seen 30+ minutes in 4/4 (30, 37,
Melton (PHI) O15.5 PA ($1.86, -115)
- Embiid out
- Covered in all three without Embiid (19, 23 & 23 PA)
- In games without Embiid, has seen 30+ min in 3/3 (30, 37, 30) and 11+ FGAs in 3/3 (11, 14, 19)
- Heat allowing 7th most points & 14th most assists to opposition SGs
2
0
28
5
6
115
Lillard (MIL) O25.5 points ($1.87, -114) (PB)
Averaging 25.1 PPG. Covered in 5/L10, putting up 21, 27, 29, 17, 45, 17, 28, 22, 26 and 18 points. He’s attempted 19+ FGAs in 6/L10 games.
He heads back to Portland for the first time post trade. Over their last fifteen games, the
4
7
117
Trae Young (ATL) O33.5 PA ($1.86, -116) (PB)
Trae comes into this averaging 32.1 PA on the season. He’s covered the line in 32, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34 and 33 PA. Across this stretch, it’s actually his scoring which has let him down. He’s gone 4/19, 4/16, 5/14, 9/22, 7/18, 7/15 &
0
5
114
Fox (SAC) O25.5 points ($1.90, -110) (PB)
Averaging 27.7 PPG. Covered in 5/L9 games, putting up 26, 19, 21, 32, 33, 24, 12, 29 & 34 points. He’s also had 20+ FGAs in 5/L9 games.
Recent PGs points v Memphis:
- Luka (31)
- McBride (19)
- Curry (26, 11/30 FG)
- Conley (17)
-
6
3
114
Kuzma (WAS) O22.5 points ($1.83, -120) (PB)
Averaging 22.6 PPG, Kuz is only over this line in 4/L10 games (32, 7, 17, 14, 26, 38, 16, 9, 27 & 22 pts), but this is the perfect bounceback spot for him. His misses have come against top tier defences:
- Warriors: 11th least points
2
3
112
Jaylen Brown (BOS) O19.5 points ($1.86, -115) (Bet365)
Brown is coming off a great 22/23 campaign, where he averaged 26.6 ppg on 20.6 FGA and 49.9% FG.
This season, Brown has covered this line in 1/2 games, scoring 11 and 27 pts. The opening game was a bit of an anomaly imo
1
4
114
OG Anunoby (TOR) O17.5 PA ($1.90, -110)
@DoctorProfit
on this first.
OG comes into this averaging 17.5 PA this season. He’s covered in 4/L9 games, putting up 29, 15, 31, 25, 11, 7, 12, 15 & 23 PA.
He comes up against a Washington team that plays at the fastest pace and has
3
4
110
Booker (PHX) O27.5 points ($1.87, -115)
Averaging 27.8 PPG. Over in 4/L10, putting up 52, 26, 16, 46,62, 44, 22, 22, 24 and 14 points. He has seen 23+ FGAs in 6/L10 games.
He gets the Bucks, who are a perfect matchup for his scoring profile. They're allowing the 4th most
Booker (PHX) O27.5 points ($1.87, -115) (PB)
Writeup to come
1
0
35
6
6
109
Melton (PHI) O15.5 points ($1.85, -117)
Melton comes into this covering in 1/L3 games without Embiid, logging 15, 22 & 15 points. Across this span he’s shot 5/17, 8/13 and 5/12 FG. He’s seen 36+ min in all three games.
He comes up against the Bulls, who implement a defensive
3
5
111
Jaylen Brown (BOS) O21.5 points ($1.82, -122) (Dabble) / ($1.71, -140) (Bet365)
Brown comes into this averaging 21.3 points per game on the season. He’s covered this line in 6/L9 games, putting up 23, 26, 11, 28, 29, 22, 23, 12 and 13 points. He’s attempted 16+ FGA in 7/9 of
2
5
108
Fox (SAC) O5.5 assists ($1.80, -125) (Lads)
Can also get for slightly worse price at PB.
Averaging 5.8 APG. He’s actually only over in 4/L10, dishing out 6, 7, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 6 & 6 assists. Averaging 11.2 potential assists on the season, I like this matchup for him.
He
1
2
106
Zion (NOP) O4.5 assists ($1.77, -129) (Lads)
Can also get this at Caesars for the Americans.
Averaging 4.6 assists per game this season. He’s covered in 5/L8, dishing out 5, 6, 1 (19 min), 7, 5, 3, 9 & 1 assists.
He faces the Jazz, who are allowing the 9th most assists to
4
4
105
Bijan Robinson (ATL) O79.5 rushing + receiving yards ($1.85, -117) (Dabble)
Bijan is coming off two big games after the Falcons publicly said they wanted to get him more involved. Over the last two weeks, he’s had:
- 22 rush attempts, 2 targets
- 16 rush attempts, 6 targets
5
6
103
AJ Brown (PHI) O74.5 receiving yards ($1.88, -113)
Brown comes into this one covering the line in just 2/L6, recording 66, 8, 37, 114, 94 and 56 yards. His misses have come against:
- Cowboys (Top 6 pass defence)
- Chiefs (Top 5 defence)
- Bills (Top 10 pass defence)
- Seattle
2
5
104
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) O25.5 points ($1.88) (Lads)
Giannis comes into this one averaging just 24 ppg on the season, clearing in just 2/5 (23, 26, 33, 16 & 22). Despite Lillard coming to the Bucks, Giannis still has decent volume. He’s attempted 10, 11, 21, 14 & 21 FGA,
2
4
102
Giannis (MIL) U6.5 assists ($1.80, -125) (PB)
Giannis comes into this averaging 5.5 APG, on 11.2 potential assists per game. He’s under this line in 7/L10 games, dishing out 6, 3, 6, 3, 16, 6, 7, 6, 8 & 5 assists.
He comes up against a Pacers squad allowing the least assists to
4
2
103
Amon-Ra St Brown (DET) O81.5 receiving yards ($1.88, -113) (Dabble)
Simply put, St Brown is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL and has clearly shown that this season. He’s covered this line in 7/L9 games, recording 102, 102, 56, 124, 102, 108, 156, 77 & 95 receiving yards.
4
4
100
Embiid (PHI) O28.5 points ($1.80, -125) (PB)
Still love this line for someone who has attempted 21+ FGA in all four games this season. He’s covered this line in 2/4 games (24, 34, 35 & 28).
He comes up against the Suns who have been very vulnerable to opposition skilled bigs.
1
2
100
Zion (NOP) O22.5 points ($1.90, -110)
Averaging 22 PPG this season. Covered the line in 5/L8 games, putting up 19, 30, 30, 13, 24, 17, 23 and 26 points. Across this span he has attempted 17+ FGs in 4/8 games.
He faces a Rockets team who are allowing the 4th most points to
1
4
97
Jalen Johnson (ATL) O28.5 PRA ($1.82, -120)
Covered in 6/L10 games, putting up 31, 34, 33, 27, 44, 21, 38, 28, 30 & 23 PRA. Capela and Ogunkwu out are out in this one.
He faces the Hornets, who are allowing the 7th most PITP and 6th most ATB 3PM. Johnson attempts over 67% of
1
2
99
Middleton (MIL) O21.5 PRA ($1.86, -115) (PB)
Few people in the space already on Middleton in some form or another, including
@Travis_Frase
and
@aus_bets
. Worth reading their writeups too.
He’s covered this line in just 3/L8 (21, 20, 19, 31, 24, 13, 27 & 15 PRA), however, he has
1
6
94
Steph Curry (BOS) O26.5 pts ($1.80, -125) (Dabble)
Line also available at Bet365/Caesars or DK/MGM (juiced though).
Steph comes into this averaging 28 ppg on the season. He’s covered this line in 5/L10, logging 35, 29, 26, 22, 31, 34, 24, 17, 37 and 7 points. Across this span
4
3
94
Jokic (DEN) O12.5 rebounds ($1.76, -131) (Bet365)
Should still also be available across MGM, Caesar’s and DK.
Jokic comes into this averaging 12.7 rebounds per game on 19.9 rebound chances per game. He’s cleared this line in just 4/L9 games, recording 11, 10, 5, 13, 15, 16, 8,
3
6
95
Zion Williamson (NOP) O29.5 points + assists ($1.95, -105)
Zion comes into this averaging 26.5 PA on the season. He’s yet to cover this line on the season (26, 26, 22, 28, 28 & 29), yet I think this is a great spot for him to buck this trend.
CJ is out for an extended period
0
0
94
Aaron Gordon (DEN) O20.5 PR ($1.86, -120)
Gordon comes into this averaging 20.1 PR. He’s covered this line in 4/L7 games, logging 24, 14, 9, 30, 21, 15 and 25 PR. Across this span he’s attempted 9+ FGAs in 6/7 and 10+ in 4/7 games.
The Mavs are allowing the 4th most points and
2
5
93
Alvin Kamara (NOP) O100.5 rush + rec yards ($1.86, -115)
Kamara comes into this covering the line in 5/L7 games, logging 104, 153, 110, 70, 75, 119 and 109 rush + rec. Across this span he’s had 14+ rush attempts in 5/7 and 7+ targets in 3/6.
He comes up against a Panthers team
0
3
91
Scoot Henderson (POR) O5.5 assists ($1.83, -120) (Bet365)
Averaging 4.8 APG, however, Simons is out. Across his last five games, he’s dished out 5, 5, 10, 6 & 4 assists. His last game, he played just 25 minutes and was a poor matchup against the Rockets (2nd least assists to
2
1
91
Coby White (CHI) O25.5 PA ($1.90, -110)
White comes into this one averaging 21.2 PA on the season, but has seen a significant uptick since Lavine’s injury. He’s covered this line in 5/6 since Lavine’s injury, putting up 30, 37, 24, 30, 37 and 35 PA. Across this span he’s
1
5
91
Barnes (TOR) U14.5 reb + ast ($1.80, -125) (Bet365)
Barnes is under in four straight games post the trade, logging 11, 10, 10 & 5 RA. Across this span, he’s averaging 8 rebound chances and 7.8 potential assists per game. I just have to play a 14.5 RA line when Barnes is
2
2
89
Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) O16.5 points ($1.80, -125) (Bet365)
Avg 16.9 PPG this season. Hes cleared this line in 8/L10 games, putting up 24, 38, 20, 10, 17, 18, 11, 19, 17 & 18 pts.
He faces a Bulls team allowing the most CnS 3PM on the season and the 4th most over the last
2
6
91
Herro (MIA) O21.5 points ($1.86, -115) (Bet365)
Averaging 22.5 PPG, he’s covered in 4/L8, putting up 21, 9, 28, 17, 21, 29, 16 & 25 points. Jimmy has been back for a few games now. With Jimmy in, Herro has covered in 9/L10, putting up 25, 16, 29, 25, 25, 22, 24, 30, 35 and 28
4
3
90
Irving (DAL) U34.5 points ($1.87, -115) (PB)
Averaging 25.1 PPG, however, Luka remains doubtful for this one. Irving is under in 2/L3 without Luka, putting up 29, 44 & 33 points.
He faces the Pelicans, who are allowing the 7th least points to opposition point guards over
3
5
89
Hudson (CIN) O2.5 rec ($1.83, -120)
Back to the well again with Hudson. Comes into this covering in five straight, recording 4, 6, 4, 4 & 4 receptions. Across this span he had 5, 7, 4, 5 and 4 targets.
Recent TEs receptions v Colts:
⁃Engram (7)
⁃Njoku (5)
⁃Johnson (1)
Hudson (CIN) O2.5 rec ($2.45, +145) (Dabble)
Hudson (CIN) O3.5 rec ($4.60, +360) (0.25U)
Comes into this covering in four straight, recording 4, 6, 4 & 4 receptions. Across this span he had 5, 7, 4 and 5 targets.
He’s outperformed the other tight ends over the last four weeks
0
0
8
3
5
88