Michael Green
@profplum99
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Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of top ranked high yield ETF, $CDX. Not investment advice
Places unknown
Joined December 2012
Loved every one of the roughly 163 minutes. Really awesome to meet with Peter face to face.
Just recorded for 3 hours with Mike Green, @profplum99. If you havenāt read his three part series on his Substack looking at the poverty line, it is highly recommended.
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Itās not a hasty read, indeed.
I didn't think @profplum99 could top his prior 3 articles but he definitely has. Also do you know how much intellectual confidence it takes to write this line? š¤£ 'An entomologist knows a lot about Ents and little else.' Make this your first read of the week! Link š
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America needs you! Join U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement today.
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The much-repeated claim that lower interest rates lead to high growth and higher rates lead to lower growth is simply not true. Proclaimed by economists of most schools of thought for 200 years, no empirical evidence exists. In fact, the opposite is true.
High bond market returns mean lower economic growth (because bond prices go up when interest rates go down). So this is Trump's idiotic Treasury Department bragging about hurting the economy with tariffs. They really are that stupid.
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We sing secondā¦ but come in first! Well done Navy Swim and Dive! Army goes down
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šØ Why does the middle class feel so financially squeezed? @profplum99 joins @GestaltU to unpack the viral debate on Americaās affordability crisisāfrom flawed CPI metrics to the rise of āghost households.ā LLMs, economics & precarity. Watch now!
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Shouldn't this same argument extend to mortgages in general? If you've paid back the principal over 30 years, what's the big deal? Why is that dastardly bank demanding MOAR??? /s
"[Ackman] has argued that the government should forgive what it is owed, since itās already been paid well more than it originally put in" What a prick.
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Excellent
Japan hasnāt ālost controlā of anything. Rising JGB yields + a weaker Yen arenāt a crisis, theyāre the strategy. A central bank that: ā¢ owns ~50% of its own bond market ā¢ pioneered QE, ZIRP, NIRP & YCC ā¢ is quietly boosting exporters, pressuring China & still funding U.S.
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Gasoline is a battery. It stores ~12,000 Wh/kg chemically, but ICE engines are only ~30% efficientāso you get ~2,500 Wh/kg of usable work, minus 300ā600 kg of engine + transmission dead weight. System-level, thatās ~1,800ā2,000 Wh/kg. EVs are already ~300 Wh/kg, but electric
Batteries are going to win. Even though current battery technology is 100% good enough to dominate the economy, we're just at the beginning of figuring out what batteries can do.
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Even if you donāt follow @radigancarter for the life insights, just enjoy the reading! Warrior poets make me shake my head. The best of us all.
After stopping for tea at this hole in the wall karak place behind a gas station our local fixer knew about, we went through the last roundabout in town and accelerated out into the desert. The sun was coming up and the mist lingering on the desert floor between the spines of
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As bad as the defenses of status quo. No, everything has not gotten worse. But some critical choices ARE harderā¦ and unnecessarily so.
It's an empirical fact that basically everything in our day to day lives has gotten worse over the years. The quality of everything -- food, clothing, entertainment, air travel, roads, traffic, infrastructure, housing, etc -- has declined in observable ways. Even newer inventions
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Also ā weāve got mocha lattes. Never in human history have so many humans had access to mocha lattes.
Counterpoint (with data): - Global life expectancy rose from 52 years (1970) to 73 years (2023). -Under-5 mortality dropped from 140 deaths per 1,000 births (1970) to 38 per 1,000 (2022). -The share of people living on <$2.15/day fell from ~42% (1981) to ~8.5% (2019). -
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āFin broā ā nothing says āI totally understand this debateā like trying out new slang you just discovered.
Jeremy has more endurance than me (an out of shape Gen Xer), so he is fighting the successor fin bro to Michael Green, who is no more humble about the limits of his expertise.
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Quick trip to the Eiffel Tower!
Just had the best authentic Mexican fajitas!
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Just had the best authentic Mexican fajitas!
A surprising amount of Mexican cuisine in San Antonioā¦
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While we no longer have an easily accessible āCPI soup,ā our friends to the north in the 52nd state have the equivalent. It almost perfectly matches the Campbellās soup chart. Itās not that āCPI Liesā ā itās that a hedonically adjusted CPI tells us something different than many
āOne of the more straightforward ways to show debasement is via the price of Campbellās tomato soup. Rather than relying on a complex set of estimates and substitutions, itās just a history record of what the same can of soup cost over time.ā
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As the clinically hyperactive author who paused my life for 2 1/2 years to write, whatās most vexing is how FEW understand the modern-era politicization of the Fed began w/Alan Greenspan. Powell had a chance to break the cycle & chose not to, which has landed us in the 3rd world.
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Loving this credit-focused account
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Weāve only just begun to āfullyā (in a complex adaptive world this is impossible) understand the implications. Some great new work is coming. Weāre tentatively calling it, āThe Worst Study of Passive Investing Everā
A succinct summation of a body of work that keeps improving via @profplum99 Heās methodically mapped out how passive structurally operates for years. He notes itās worse than ever His work backs my two mantras: The Flows Are All That Know. Trade the Narrative. Own the Truth.
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