Cullen Roche
@cullenroche
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Founder & CIO @disciplinefunds 📊 | Author @pragcap 📖| PM of DSCF 💰| Defined Duration Investing ⌛| Board at Cambria ETFs 💸
Encinitas, CA
Joined February 2009
1) PCE at 2.3%, below historical average. 2) Labor market softening. 3) Trump about to appoint Fed Chief who will want to cut rates. I'll take the under on this one.
DIMON: I WOULD PRICE IN A 40%-50% CHANCE OF HIGHER U.S. INTEREST RATES.
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The June budget SURPLUS should be about $60B. Since February the budget DEFICIT in 2025 is coming in at around $460B vs $740B in 2024. Is Trump having a big impact on the budget deficit?
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I'll be on live today at 5PM ET with @michaelbatnick - should be a great show.
TONIGHT ON A SPECIAL EDITION OF WAYT?🚨🎙️. @michaelbatnick will be joined by @cullenroche, @EricBalchunas, and @Kantrowitz live at 5pm ET to discuss who can replace the dollar, will the deficit crush us, the most successful ETF ever, will Apple buy Perplexity, Meta vs OpenAI, and
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Eh. Not as robust as headlines appear. It was mostly govt jobs. Pvt sector employment missed bigly (75k vs 105k estimate). And wages were really soft at 3.7% (3.9% est). It's not a recessionary report at all. But this is still a softening labor market.
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If I were elected mayor of NYC I would seize the means of production and then place a Dominos Pizza and a leg press machine on every block.
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Fixed this for you Zohran:. "Wealth inequality is real. But worth noting: the top 1% of earners pay about 42% of all federal income taxes, and the companies billionaires create fund a huge portion of the economy and government revenue and employ millions. Maybe the goal isn’t to.
ZOHRAN MAMDANI: “I don't think that we should have billionaires.”
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HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE!.
JUST IN: President Trump says Fed Chair Powell is a 'stubborn mule and a stupid person'.
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Endorse. These instruments prey on people's desire for income, but instead of providing income more efficiently they are typically just charging huge fees and creating tax inefficient distributions.
Good one from @jasonzweigwsj on single-stock option-income ETFs. Like Jason, I think these ETFs are a rotten deal for investors. I wrote about it previously on my Substack here Also tweeted about it here: .
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Me: "That Canary Palm they're cutting down was probably older than most people alive. It's so sad to see it die.". My 5 year old daughter: "Daddy, that's not sad because it means he got to be happy for a really long time"
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To make this more appealing to you New Yorkers - I was surprised to see that we have 2.5X more locations for the best pizza in NY. NY has just 240 Dominos Pizzas, but CA has 595.
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It sounds like many in New York City are struggling with the prospect of higher taxes. Don't worry. We would welcome you in California where the taxes are lower.
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I handed in the final manuscript for my new book last night. I dumped everything I know about investing into 260 pages and of course added a few reminders not to miss leg day. I can't wait to publish this later this year.
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In 2024 we had a very restrictive 5.33% effective Fed Funds Rate and a rate of inflation of 2.1% that had been falling. Now we have a less restrictive 4.33% effective Fed Funds Rate and inflation has been rising and/or sideways. I do agree the Fed should be leaning towards.
I’d love to hear an argument for why Powell cut rates 50 points right before an election but can’t do it now with inflation lower.
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Wouldn't be surprised if Bessent slid to Fed. Waller probably the front-runner for now though since he's saying all the stuff Trump wants to hear.
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I suspect the job interview for the next Fed Chair nominee will go as follows:. Trump: "Will you cut rates in 2026?". Interviewee: "Yes". Trump: "You're hired".
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Austin is such a great city. 9/10. I had to subtract 1 point based on the San Diego weather rating scale due to this thing called "rain" and temperatures over 85 degrees.
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Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there. Even the dads who skip leg day!.
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