Praise ꓘeK Capital
@PraiseKek
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PhD in Financial Illiteracy. u³o⁸ Cult Member. TA? Yes, I'm Totally Autistic. Meme Magic.
Kekistan
Joined January 2022
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Pinned Tweet
Exposing
#FinancialShenanigans
🚩
In the
#Uranium
⛏️ Sector
******
Pinned Threads:
$GREN Madison Metals🚩
90-post 🧵
$FUU 🚩
21-post 🧵
$SUU 🚩
50-post 🧵
$NXE 🚩
19-post Intro🧵
$NXE Financial Shenanigans🚩
Introduction Thread 1/19
A preview of my upcoming deep dive into $NXE's potential financial tricks, technical hurdles, and unique risks. We begin with a low-hanging fruit: Management compensation🚩
The full report will be released in due time...
8
5
101
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2
39
@Geologo_Trader
Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, are very European compared to the other South American nations...
43
3
381
Recently,
@hkuppy
was interviewed by
@JackFarley96
, discussing his views on
#uranium
. His strategy: direct exposure to physical uranium, a solid approach.
However, his analysis of the miners relies on flawed assumptions. This thread will present a few counterarguments.
1/14 🐸
29
31
295
$CCJ Grant Isaak:
"We haven't even hit replacement rate contracting yet, and we started at the highest
#Uranium
price ever in any previous cycle, this is very exciting for us."
"We need 5mlbs to 7mlbs purchasing this year to fulfill contracts. We will be buying in the market"
4
40
221
This is what the top
@chainlink
nodes are earning (gross profits) right now on a daily basis. Each node is a proper business run by an entity or individual.
Chainlink enables the Web 3.0 toolbox for others to become decentralized corporations.
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28
194
I can already smell some
#uranium
speculators are considering getting out of this trade soon, as spot prices come closer to $75/lb. Some actually pinpoint their exit on spot prices reaching xxx levels.
But let's consider a few important points first.
1/8
17
22
206
$FUU 🇨🇦 Financial Shenanigans🚩
1/21
Disclaimer: I have no position in $FUU, neither short nor long. All information provided has the sole intent of informing current shareholders and future investors. I have not done a deep dive; I have only focused on selected key issues. DYOR
25
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#Niger
🇳🇪 Junta agrees on transition to democratic rule. $GLO
@AtomicCorp
⛏️
Sanctions could be lifted soon opening up Benin port for exports & imports.
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25
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Thread 🧵 1/25
Warren Irwin's "Mathematical
#Uranium
model"
The following recent interview with
@bigdude6669
has raised some doubts among some retail investors regarding the supply vs demand model for uranium.
Let's dive in and dissect it.
Link:
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49
180
Mike Alkin on
@moneyofminepod
.
"Throw the kitchen sink at everything, bring on $NXE, ramp up $CCJ, $KAP to full capacity, brownfields, you still got a 180mlbs cumulative
#uranium
deficit by 2030."
Imagine the deficit if everything doesn't go smoothly...
12
26
179
#Uranium
Exit Strategy.
More & more people are starting to consider what the perfect exit strategy would look like. Today, a man I truly respect,
@trader_ferg
, with way more experience in the speculation field than me, gave his views & insights. Here are my counterpoints:
1/18
19
25
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Thread 🧵1/19
Why I picked
@AtomicCorp
over
@NexGenEnergy_
For the record:
I am biased: I hold $GLO & I don’t hold $NXE
Secondly, I have no hate towards $NXE and believe it has great potential to become an important
#uranium
producer for the Nuclear Industry.
Let's dive in:
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36
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Great find 🙌 $KAP
Main takeaways:
1. There is no considerable increase in
#uranium
production capacity before 2028.
2. New mines see some delays.
3. $KAP in no rush to expand production right now. Value over Volume strategy persists.
4. Acid imports from China are impossible.
💥A very detailed article in the Kazakh media on Kazatomprom - You must read it:
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10
28
168
$GLO 🇳🇪 My Risk/Reward Strategy
1/22 🐸
In March 2022, $GLO traded at a -53% jurisdictional discount compared with its 🇺🇸 peer, $UEC. Since the July 2023 Coup, that discount has grown to a -90% discount. Is this justified? Has
#Niger
become uninvestable? Will $GLO ever recover?
15
25
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$DYL I truly wonder how big funds managed to brainfart the idea to go short any
#uranium
stock company with a combined 50Bn market cap during the most foundational bull thesis cycle ever in this sector...
Let alone the company led by Vietnam veteran John Borshoff...
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15
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$CCJ 🇨🇦 Cigar Lake Extension (CLEXT)
The technical report has been published. Enjoyable Sunday reading.
Some first impressions. 1/11 🐸
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8
156
You are short millions of $DYL shares on the ASX. You expect them to announce a capital raise for any day. Natives threatening Mulga Rock? You are comfortable...
And then $KAP announces risk to production for '24 & '25. The whole u³o⁸ sector takes off, and the ASX is closed...
12
6
155
#Uranum
biography 2⃣
John Borshoff, CEO of
@DeepYellowLtd
Thread 🧵 1/25
When investing in the mining sector I believe there are 2 main factors one should consider when taking decisions:
1⃣ The Asset
2⃣ The Management
In these threads, we will concentrate on the CEO.
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32
150
Since I published my $FUU thread yesterday, many have questioned me: Why engage if I have no direct skin in the game? How about truth, honesty, decency, and justice? I know, I know, these words are quite rare in the realm of junior mining, particularly in the 🇨🇦 sector...
/1
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5
151
$GLO 🇳🇪 Niger, a
#uranium
producer for 50+ years, boasts a skilled workforce. Following Orano's Cominak shutdown,
@AtomicCorp
is tapping into this talent pool, currently employing 275 staff and planning to expand to 800. Skilled labor shortage isn't an issue in Africa...
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8
149
$GLO 🇳🇪
Pre-payment Agreements
"Any remaining equity required may be raised in the form of pre-payments on future uranium sales agreements, which would be put in place following banks’ board approval of the debt facility."
If successful this would signify no further dilution.
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12
149
How can anyone with a serious appreciation for his finances short any stock in the
#uranium
sector at this exact moment of the cycle? This is a $60bn sector. It's in a bull market. The biggest producer is in doubt. Equities still underperforming spot. The trend is your friend. 🙃
The prior
#uranium
rally was the one to safely sell. This one is the one to short. I've spoke of and referenced this moment for a while, anticipating a ridiculous upside rally that would not last. I just exited the last of my positions.
I'll be publicly posting my short
50
1
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19
7
144
"The Big Long"🧵story
Once upon a time, in 2017, the world was on the brink of a massive shift in energy production. This shift, driven by the urgent need to combat climate change & the push towards clean, reliable energy, paved the way for the rise of the
#Uranium
bull cycle.
8
22
145
In the coming days, I'll be sharing a new $NXE 🇨🇦 thread. Tonight, I'm sending out emails and giving management, along with other parties, a chance to respond. No, this isn't related to today's new debentures. Something else is brewing...
7
5
144
#Uranium
Quarterly G&A Expenses
$DYL 🇦🇺: AUD$1,120,000
$GLO 🇨🇦: CAD$2,199,211
$DNN 🇨🇦: CAD$3,584,000
$UEC 🇺🇸: US$4,895,000
((( $NXE 🇨🇦: CAD$17,498,000 )))
20
14
144
$GLO Court 2.0 & Permit FUD 2.0
Quick thread with my views on the recent developments in
#Niger
🇳🇪
A few weeks ago, 1,400kg of gold was intercepted without official documentation. This prompted the Junta to freeze all exploration permits as a precautionary measure.
1/11 🐸
9
20
143
I have not had the time to give my own views on the recent
@PauloMacro
's
#uranium
bear thesis. I just shared some quotes from the most recent Mike Alkin interviews up until now.
People who bring a solid bear thesis to the table are very appreciated. How solid is this one?
*1/25
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15
137
$GLO 🇳🇪 "Drill results from the 2021/22 16,000-meter drill program indicate that Zones 2, 2a, and 2b now represent a contiguous zone that joins up with Zone 3 and is estimated to be approximately three times larger than initially defined."
I will repeat: Three times larger
Global Atomic provides Q3 2023 results and corporate update including that the U.S. Government has expressed support for the project financing to proceed and both development banks have been authorized to re-engage with the Company and finalize funding.
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24
141
#Uranium
reminder 🐸
$KAP 🇰🇿 CEO: "We have no desire to "boost" production in the coming YEARS. We are not chasing production volumes."
Y E A R S (as in multiple)
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17
140
This was in nobody’s
#Uranium
models in 2019:
1. SPUT sequestering 60Mlbs
2. $KAP Alashankou warehouse building up 60Mlbs storage
3. $KAP revising down 2023 production by -5Mlbs
4. $KAP launching its own SPUT
5. Overfeeding
6. SMR revolution
7. Japan restarts
Did I miss any?
22
24
137
Exposing
@MadisonMetals
🚩 Shenanigans
A Deep Dive Story on Duane Bennet Parnham and His Eternal Quest for Cash 💵💵
Open-ended 🧵
#1
Thanks to the collaboration of
#Utwit
autists:
@toiletkingcap
@brianapple12
and
@GitzelsGreen
🙏
16
20
137
This is the second-best bullish breadcrumb in the
#uranium
sector at this moment, after $KAP news.
@brandon_munro
hinting at low dilutive financing options coming from utilities? Industry support for CAPEX?
Why Namibia 🇳🇦? Because they are shovel-ready projects? $BMN $DYL ⛏️
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10
135
#Uranium
Supply Deficit 🚨
We need 3 extra $NXE Rook deposits to be built and produce yellow cake by the year 2030.
We need 10 extra $NXE Rook deposits to be built and produce yellow cake by the year 2040.
Who is going to explore, develop, and build them?
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15
131
Mike Alkin on
@moneyofminepod
:
"By 2030, which is tomorrow in
#uranium
years, 23% of required pounds, have not been built, permitted, financed. The mines don't exist."
How much longer will the nuclear industry canabalize its strategic reserves for? 🤷♂️
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12
133
The 1 Billion Pound Mystery 👀
Thread 🧵1/17
In a previous thread, I tried addressing some of
@ItsWarrenIrwin
's claims made in a recent interview with
@Charlotte_McL
.
I also touched upon his claim that there are 1B lbs ready to drop on the market.
Let's dive in a bit deeper.
Thread 🧵 1/25
Warren Irwin's "Mathematical
#Uranium
model"
The following recent interview with
@bigdude6669
has raised some doubts among some retail investors regarding the supply vs demand model for uranium.
Let's dive in and dissect it.
Link:
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49
180
14
24
127
Our BIN $GLO 🇳🇪 Fear-of-Death-and-Uncertainty card is almost full !! 👊👊
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11
131
$GLO 🇳🇪 The Death of DASA 🧵1/25
@AtomicCorp
shareholders have been speculating on the debt package & expropriation since the Nigerien coup started a few weeks ago. Many believe DASA is dead in the water, and no other options are available.
Let's reduce the noise 📢
12
19
127
$GLO
@AtomicCorp
- Thread 🧵Court Order 1/25
Two days before the closing of a public equity offering, the judge of Agradez issued a court order against SOMIDA in the name of NGO's Tanakra & ACP Alher claims.
Let's dive in and discover more details:
14
26
131
@CruxInvestor
with Guy Keller:
#Lithium
stocks went up +1,000's of % based on future supply models and run ahead of time...
#Uranium
hasn't even solved past supply deficits, let alone present or future. And yet people call a +20% week as "overbought" 🤷♂️
4
19
131
$CCJ Q4 2023 Conference Call - 1/18 🧵
Following the latest $CCJ call, a flurry of speculation, defenses, and attacks erupted on
#Utwit
over the last few days. I feel compelled to express my views in a small thread because conversations on this platform are challenging to have.
6
13
130
$GLO -
#Uranium
Thread 🧵 - 1/10
After the recent DASA Phase 1 mine opening blast and the subsequent capital raise financing, let's have a look at the updated Corporate Presentation published by
@AtomicCorp
on the 25th of January, but also reassess its security in Niger.
7
16
123
John Borshoff has full permitting on Tumas 🇳🇦 and 1st production scheduled for 2026. 3.5mlbs pa. Mulga Rock fully permitted 1st production in 2028 3.5mlbs pa. Zero offtake agreements signed. JB will purchase 0lbs to give utilities guarantees. $NXE, this is a seller's market 🤷♂️
14
12
126
$NXE 🇨🇦 Skeletons in the Closet
1/25 🐸
In this thread, I'll share my initial findings on a matter related to
@NexGenEnergy_
. I'll provide facts, make assumptions, and draw some connections. Please note that I’m not a mining engineer or an environmental regulatory expert. DYOR.
10
14
126
#Uranum
biography 1⃣
Stephen G. Roman, CEO of
@AtomicCorp
.
Thread 🧵 1/25
When investing in the mining sector I believe there are two main factors one should consider when taking decisions:
1⃣ The Management
2⃣ The Asset
In these threads, we will concentrate on the CEO.
6
15
125
Why is everyone so super duper excited about $CCJ missing out on a few million lbs of
#uranium
production this year?
You guys don't understand. There's a billion lbs ready to drop on the spot market any day now. A super duper smart friend told me so, ok.
Buy nickel stocks, ok.
20
3
125
$KAP 🇰🇿 According to
@GlobalXETFs
, storms impeded operations at numerous
#uranium
mines. This has impacted the $CCJ JV Inkai mine & processing complex, as reagent delivery vehicles have been constrained.
#Inkai
should be able to resume normal operations within three months 👀
9
14
119
$NXE 🇨🇦 spent the equivalent of 1.4mlbs of
#uranium
in 2023 & 195,000lbs in Q1 2024 on G&A expenses. Combined 1.6Mlbs total in 15 months' time. It then raised the equivalent of 2.48mlbs from 🇦🇺 investors weeks before it got itself into debt at 9% interest to purchase 2.7mlbs.
14
5
119
Mike Alkin on
#uranium
:
"I can't emphasize enough: market structure & incentives; learn them, and you won't be guided by day-to-day spot prices. It's an upside-down market. It's broken. It's dysfunctional, with infrequent price discovery, which creates unbelievable asymmetry."
8
8
118
$KAP 🇰🇿 just made their (and all other's) business more valuable by announcing it will sell less
#uranium
in 2024.
$DYL & $BMN 🇳🇦 have not yet signed any off-take agreements. They will set the Term floor for all other companies to benefit from.
Spot: $100lb+
Term: $68lb 🤷♂️
Kazatomprom expects its 2024 production to be adjusted due to the challenges related to the availability of sulphuric acid. It’s only the beginning
#uranium
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11
117
$GLO 🇳🇪 u³o⁸-NPV⁸ Torque
Linearly extrapolated:
- At $106/lb: USD $1.61B
(IRR: 104.94%)
- At $120/lb: USD $1.90B
(IRR: 118.8%)
- At $130/lb: USD $2.11B
(IRR: 128.7%)
- At $140/lb: USD $2.32B
(IRR: 138.6%)
- At $150/lb: USD $2.53B
(IRR: 148.5%)
$GLO Market Cap: USD $586M
8
11
116
Everyone aspires to be labeled a contrarian investor until their portfolio is cut in half. Then, doubt and fear grip 99% of people. If you loved a stock at $5, surely you'd adore it at $2, right? Right?!
26
4
117
Now that $KAP will likely produce less
#uranium
in 2024, and with $CCJ also missing targets in 2023, and with spot price breaching the $100lb, I wonder if John Borshoff is ready to get out of bed and pick up the phone next week to sign a few off-take agreements with utilities...
6
0
115
$KAP 🇰🇿 "NO DESIRE TO BOOST PRODUCTION IN THE COMING YEARS"
VALUE OVER VOLUME 🧠
8
12
112
If the rumor becomes reality, and $KAP has understated their depletion rate and has hit a maximum production, then this will become a triple Cigar Lake flood event. But I still wonder, what if it's as simple as hidden supply discipline to max value in an expanding bull market?...
KAP needs 1.7MM tons of sulfuric acid per year to keep up its production rate. It produces 0.68MM tons itself. Rest must be imported. Doesn't seem like a $ amount that a company as profitable as KAP can't afford. There could be more reasons to miss production targets
#uranium
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17
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12
7
112
#Mali
🇲🇱
@BarrickGold
Expropriation?
1/13 🐸
@JfCollinso95293
, one of the critical voices that opposes some of my views was so kind to share a news update on Mali and reports signaling the Junta might be considering nationalizing producing gold miners.
Let's dissect this...
7
18
112
$GLO 🇳🇪 Did Roman just subtly suggest a potential joint venture with Russia, 🇷🇺 ready to cover the full capital expenditure for DASA's uranium project if Western banks withdraw their financing? 👀 Playing poker with 🇺🇲 and 🇨🇦?
@CruxInvestor
29
9
111
$GLO 🇳🇪 1/9
An
#uranium
junior can be considered undervalued when you can liquidate all of its assets today for more value than the current market cap.
$GLO's current MC is $316m USD.
Let's speculate on this idea while leaving out the risks of nationalization & failed states.
12
18
110
How can we claim the
#uranium
sector is retail-friendly when 30 insiders can know every move days before the public? Could price reporters like
@UxC_Nuclear
and
@U3O8TradeTech
be behind the information curve and easily manipulated? Does this result in inefficient markets?
13
7
110
$DYL 🇳🇦🇦🇺
@DeepYellowLtd
NPV Speculation
Thread 1/13
With Feasibility Studies done on the Tumas project in Namibia and the Mulga Rock project in Australia, Deep Yellow will work towards becoming a 7.1M/lbs producer in the coming years. Let's try and model the future values.
12
19
106
$FUU Facts:
1. $FUU has NO economically viable deposit. Yet...
2. Management paid themselves millions of 💵 right after 1st new discovery.
3. All shareholders are holding their 🥜 hoping they hit a real deposit while getting heavily diluted along the way.
4. Dev is a liar.
20
2
109
Crunching Numbers with
@FootnotesFirst
Thread 🧵1/22
In 2020
@SachemCove
presented a "confidential - not-for-distribution" deck on the
@MacroVoices
podcast. This document has been prepared by Lloyd Harbor Capital Management.
Let's dive in & go back to basics: Math is the Math.
3
22
106
“There was 160 million pounds put under contract last year in the term market. I’m not impressed with that. Show me 250 – it’s got to be more.”
-Dustin Garrow
Crux Investor: Jumping on the
#uranium
bandwagon before it was a bandwagon.
Uranium expert's couple of insights you won't have known...
5
27
101
3
12
106
$DYL 🇦🇺🇳🇦 Shorts vs Borshoff & Garrow
1/15
Shorts have been piling up against the ASX-listed
#uranium
developer
@DeepYellowLtd
. Are these shorts on the right side of the trade? Shorters are usually intelligent market players. Why are they short? And how could this impact $DYL?
12
12
104
#Niger
🇳🇪 & US 🇺🇲
"The United States welcomes CNSP interest in maintaining a strong bilateral relationship. The United States reaffirms our support for the Nigerien people as they combat terrorism, develop the country’s economy, and transition to democratic rule."
12
7
104
$GLO 🇳🇪 Compelling
#Uranium
Economics
@ $100lb = 99% after-tax IRR
( $NXE = 81.6% IRR )
$22lb AISC is equal to:
$KAP Inkai JV & $CCJ Cigar Lake
#DASA
in 2030:
1. Produced 24M/lbs
2. Debt-Free
3. Free cash-flowing
@ $100lb = US$1,500M at NPV8%
@AtomicCorp
Market Cap = US$430M
9
10
102
$GLO 🇳🇪 The Risk of Nationalization in Africa
🧶 1/12
A brief history of past nationalizations of Africa's mining sector & a brief analysis of more recent reforms & how these could affect the future of
@AtomicCorp
if the current Coup succeeds & establishes a new government.
10
8
101
#Uranium
price reporting services are experiencing temporary interruptions...
I literally think their servers are maxed out because so many people are refreshing haha
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0
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3
8
101
#Uranium
Insider Ownership
Thread 🧵 1/10
The recent short report on $UEC portrays it as a bunch of overpaid directors putting lipstick on a pig.
Opinions of all kinds have been shared on social media in the last few days.
I would like to focus on & compare Insider Ownership.
5
15
97
I have & keep enjoying the $GLO 🇳🇪 story. I have not seen sentiment as low as it is right now. I can smell the fear & hate through my phone screen. So much noise. I can only imagine the loathe & hate IF Western banks pull out. Would you buy that headline? USD$275m Market Cap...
28
3
101
Mike Alkin on the Spot Market:
1/2
"I buy physical
#uranium
in the spot market, so I'm in the spot market. The spot market is made up of about 7 or 8 physical traders who do not have balance sheets that last past a month or so. It's a game of hot potato, and that's all it is."
5
10
101
$CCJ 🇨🇦 Grant Isaac: Greenfield projects will suffer significant cost overruns & schedule delays, including those that propose using innovative technologies that have never been deployed before ( $NXE & $DNN). The market has yet to fully recognize the risk associated with this.
#Cameco
's Executive Vice-President & CFO, Grant Isaac, joined a virtual fireside chat with Andrew Wong, research analyst at RBC Capital Markets, to address misconceptions & recent volatility in nuclear fuel markets. WEBCAST REPLAY AT: $CCO.TO $CCJ
0
21
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13
12
101
$DYL
@DeepYellowLtd
🇳🇦🇦🇺 Mulga Rock
🧵 1/8
On the 29th of December 2023, a few Australian newspapers released articles with some volatile headlines regarding Deep Yellow's Mulga Rock project: NUKE & DESTROY, according to a "nuclear policy analyst."
14
10
101
Are
#Uranium
stocks overvalued? Great question coming from
@AlmostMongolian
. $CCJ looking like a tech stock right now? How should one value these equities? Especially those without cash flow. You can't really put any logical value on explorers. There are no economic resources.
1/
6
9
100
$NXE Financial Shenanigans🚩
Introduction Thread 1/19
A preview of my upcoming deep dive into $NXE's potential financial tricks, technical hurdles, and unique risks. We begin with a low-hanging fruit: Management compensation🚩
The full report will be released in due time...
8
5
101
Has there ever been a bigger shapeshifter than
@ItsWarrenIrwin
in the Uranium space? The dude literally went on a TV campaign calling the
#Uranium
super bulls "idiots", while proclaiming he knew a billion lbs would come on the market at higher prices & shilling Nickel. He🛑me.
18
2
98
$GLO 🇳🇪 has modified its ATM filling from November $350m (when the US 🇺🇸 officially called it a coup) to December $50m (after US 🇺🇸 gave Development Banks permission to finance
#DASA
). A sign that banking debt is on its way. ATM includes no warrants = less dilution overhang.
Global Atomic has entered into an ATM equity distribution agreement allowing it to issue up to $50M of shares providing the Company with another funding tool to potentially contribute to funding Dasa, along with several other options under consideration.
3
13
124
7
5
100
Harry has been doing some 🇳🇪 jurisdictional discount math. With full government support, the biggest hurdle left is the Development Banks financing. Credit committee decision should be close. Board meeting in June. Will $GLO recover from a -90% discount to its peers?
Paladin Energy $PDN is a great company and has done very well for its investors. It will continue to do so.
When comparing its valuation against Global Atomic $GLO $GLATF the disconnect in Global's valuation is exceptional.
#uranium
13
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136
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11
99
$GLO 🇳🇪: 3 Off-take Long-Term
#uranium
Agreements with North-American utilities.
$NXE 🇨🇦: 0
$DNN 🇨🇦: 0
$UEC 🇺🇲: 0
Global Atomic today reported the formalization of its 3rd off-take agreement with US utilities, timelines for the updated Phase 1 Feasibility Study, 500 days operating the Dasa Mine without an LTI and the promotion of Emre Toprak to VP Finance. $GLO $GLATF
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Orano 🇫🇷 reported aggregate production of about 18.6M/lbs
#uranium
for 2023 with the SOMAÏR processing plant producing about 2.6Mlbs instead of the expected 4.7Mlbs. U308 processing at SOMAÏR in Niger 🇳🇪 has resumed gradually after a hiatus of several months following the coup.
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@mineralstocks
I'm an open book. This is my
#uranium
book. It's a suicidal concentrated high-risk book. I pray every day for others to dig deep and find any 🚩 on my company's mgmt because maybe I missed something. I don't fear scrutiny, I embrace it, and anybody critizing it should reconsider.
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