Millennial Moron
@Mill_Moron
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Creator of Unpleasant Canadian Real Estate Content
Joined August 2023
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Compiled about 40 minutes of my yammering about the housing bubble into one big video for your convenience:
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I think I know why ur potatoes were so expensive bro
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Schrodinger's housing affordability. We need to decide as a society if we want primary residences to be an accessible essential need, or a vehicle to build wealth. It can't be both.
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Isn't it weird how there's a skilled labour shortage, but an engineering degree only gets you a small premium over minimum wage in one of the highest CoL cities in the country?
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Reminder: these are the people who are underperforming their own passively-managed benchmark portfolio that they created to justify their own jobs. So glad to see that we're spending hundreds of millions out of our pensions so they can have a nicer office.
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Told ya. Also, they're increasing the RRSP home buyer plan withdrawal limit from 35k to 60k, sending young people a clear message of "Screw your retirement, we can't let housing prices fall, otherwise boomers might be in financial trouble for THEIR retirement."
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The new line from realtors to deflect from the high cost of mortgage interest is "mortgages are 6% interest, rent is 100% interest," a claim so misleading that I honestly think it should result in disciplinary action.
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Realtors updating their projections after today's rate cut:
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This whole thread is a nightmarish example of the contrast between how much money people have been "investing" into housing and mortgage lending, and how much they understand about what they're doing.
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Reminder that temporary foreign worker permits are not some ultra-woke diversity policy, it's a ruthlessly capitalist ploy that was facilitated by both parties.
Here's a chart I watch closely.
Employers were approved to fill > 89K positions in the low-wage stream of the TFW program over the 12 months thru March 31, 2024.
The gap is closing with the agriculture stream.
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CPP Investment Board starts giving themselves value-added performance bonuses when the 5-year performance relative to the reference portfolio reaches negative twenty billion dollars:
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My guess: More access to debt via something like longer amortizations, which will do nothing for affordability and just push prices up further as people have more borrowed money to make offers with.
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I don't dislike Saretsky, but this is a little out of touch with what's happened to younger people. 20 years of cheap debt and the associated inflation of real estate has split our society into two classes: tenants and the landed gentry. There's barely a "middle" class any more.
The horrors of a middle class person buying a cottage 20 years ago and accruing a small amount of wealth.
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Reminder: Rate cuts are generally a sign of a weakening economy, not a "responsible economic and fiscal plan" as Freeland implies here.
We are budgeted for a $40B deficit this year, which is inflationary fiscal policy. Our fiscal and monetary policies have been mis-aligned.
Inflation in Canada fell to 2.7% in June.
For 6 months in a row, inflation has been within the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1%-3%.
In June, the Bank lowered interest rates, making Canada the first G7 country to do so.
Our responsible economic and fiscal plan is working.
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Not exactly a glowing endorsement of the temporary foreign worker program
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Toronto realtors are taking virtual staging to the next level using AI technology!
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Bank of Canada has started overnight repo operations again - not sure what the implications of this are when combined with expectations of a rate cut lol
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They're just figuring that out now?
American bank insiders are chattering about the situation in the Canadian Real Estate market as rivalling, if not dwarfing the GFC subprime crisis in the US.
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Hot take: Mortgages don't "build equity". They're just loans.
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TRREB reports 65,982 home sales in 2023, the lowest since 2000. Composite home price index dropped to 337.8, a 19.3% drop from the peak in March 2022 (approx 25% when adjusted for inflation - December CPI not out yet)
Please stop telling me the housing market is still strong lol
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Housing minister Sean Fraser claims the government is mulling an immigration target cut to address the housing crisis. My thoughts.
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If you still think our issues are only a result of the current government, look at this chart and the rest of the thread. We've been on the track of sacrificing the productive economy in favour of real estate for a good ~25 years now.
Now that ur all riled up about cap gains on housing, let me outline my thinking
No Im not advocating for tax on principal residences. Exact wording was "not entirely opposed" which means there's nuance here
IMO, a key issue in 🇨🇦 is investment in RE at expense of biz investment
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Property last sold in 2020 for $3.45M with a bungalow on it. Redeveloped as a luxury home, listed at $13.8M in Oct 2023. Fire crews battling large blaze at the property this morning. Way too early to say what happened, but will be interested to see the investigation results 🤔
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Based on data from the St Louis Fed, in the 1990s real estate crash in Canada, real house values dropped by 21.1% from peak to trough in 9.5 years.
Based on data from CREA and Statcan, real values have dropped 22.2% in the last 22 months.
Stop asking me when the crash is coming.
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Normally, after the December spike in credit card debt, it takes us until roughly September of the following year to top the previous peak. This year, we did it in April! Great work, team!
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Friday Update - August Housing Stats, GDP Per Capita, Underwater Mortgages, Federal Housing Plan
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As I've been saying, rate cuts aren't going to happen just because people want them - they'll be coming on the heels of a continued economic slump. I don't see this creating a massive price boom in housing, but let me check instagram first to see what the realtors think.
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@Helot_
People are trying to figure it out but neither the mom or the son actually know what the brother is doing. Could be that they took a HELOC to fund down-payment loans for other people buying houses, amd got caught out by falling prices.
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Oh look, it's exactly what I said would happen five months ago lol. For context: when the election date was extended one week, it meant that 20 of the 32 BQ MPs (including party leader YF Blanchet) would become eligible for their pensions - as long as no early election is called.
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Looks like Poilievre referenced my videos again in his mini-documentary. Seriously considering a video on how the CPC also contributed to the housing crisis while they were in power, and Poilievre didn't say a damn thing about it.
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With real estate agencies releasing their bullish projections for 2024 in anticipation of rate cuts, let's keep in mind that the average rate for existing 5-year mortgages is trailing the rate for new debt by about 270 points. Renewals are still coming at higher rates.
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While our low national mortgage delinquency rate of 0.17% is what makes the headlines about financial stress, I think the activity in the alternative lending market (as reported by the CMHC) is more of a leading indicator:
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I appreciate the barely-concealed shade, but I think you're overestimating my clout. The reason I was able to get this podcast together is that I began coordinating it in October, and used existing contacts, a specific pitch, and a portfolio of previous work on the subject.
I’m somewhat shocked to learn that an influencer, Millennial Moron, gets to interview everyone at the city while i get statements instead.
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One of the reasons I say we haven't even priced in the hikes yet. There's a lot of people out there who are currently able to pay their mortgage, but they can't afford it in the longer term:
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A friend recently said that we're not only too old to use Gen Z slang, we're too old to use our own generation's slang. I guess you die phat or live long enough to see yourself become wack.
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It me
Opinion: This social media prognosticator channels the angst of a housing-challenged generation
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Canadian Real Estate vs. Literal European Castles, Part 22
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According to a survey by 360Lending:
Almost half of Canadians (44.5%) would rather save the money for a down payment on a house or condo than 'be in love.'
What a perfect encapsulation of our society's unhealthy obsession with real estate, just in time for Valentine's Day!
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27k new jobs in May, unemployment up 0.1%, 27.7k increase in unemployment. Are we still pretending there's a labour shortage?
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Why I don't think the "labour shortage" in Canada is a real thing:
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As I discussed in a video back in April, the CPC's housing plan seems mainly designed to sound good, not to actually work. A lot of the ideas are counter-productive.
We need more housing policy discussions happening between citizens, not just handed down to us by politicians.
Pierre Poilievre has a housing plan ready for Ottawa's bureaucrats. Documents reveal some don't believe it's 'grounded in reality'
#cdnpoli
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@HanifBayat
So like... roughly 100B in mortgages in negative amortization at the big players?
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@ShaziGoalie
@jasongofficial
@ravi_chander
@Amangrewal1000
@ArowzLimited
@dennis_dacunha
@RishiKBakshi
@StraightFromDan
@therealhebrahim
@Darinb75
Note that $84k annually on a $2.35M investment is still a trash return even if you had no carrying costs lol
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@BenRabidoux
This is the angle that's largely missed in the discussion about immigration - we're absolutely exploiting people for cheap labour, and now treating them as disposable once they become politically inconvenient. It's terrible.
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Some super fun news from The Bureau about the Canada Border Service Agency being infiltrated by transnational criminal organizations
New from The Bureau: read this before the ISIS infiltration hearings in Ottawa; part 2 tomorrow
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One again, someone in the OPC office has decided they are now fully confident that the BoC will not be hiking rates this week, so they've given the go-ahead for an "open letter" on the subject, to create the illusion of actually doing something.
Ahead of this week’s decision on interest rates, I’ve written to the Governor of the Bank of Canada to again express my opposition to any further rate hikes. Higher interest rates are hurting people and businesses that are already struggling to pay their bills.
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Would you pay $6k a year to be a live-in maid for an old man in an "adult open lifestyle environment"? 🤔🤢🤮
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@mortgageagentsn
How are you supposed to bury yourself in debt like a true Canadian patriot without a good credit rating?
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@SteveSaretsky
Steve what you're forgetting here is the EQUITY, even if they lose money every month and prices have been going down, it's still a great investment because prices only go up.
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oh ok phew
Bank of Canada says economy is not heading for a ‘serious recession’
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Absolutely adoring the hand-wringing from crypto bros about a modest increase in the inclusion rate for capital gains in excess of $250k/year
@MasonVersluis
How are you actually supposed to get ahead in life if they just tax you to death.
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For people who think my usual assumption of 7% portfolio annual returns is unrealistic, here's a backtest of my own portfolio allocation over the last ten years - average annualized growth is just over 10%. I'm not a skilled investor, this is basic ETFs and dividend reinvestment.
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Pulled a lot of data from past CMHC rental market reports over the past 6 years. Seems convincing that housing supply is far more important than rent control, and suggests that rent controls may be stifling supply in the rental market in the longer term.
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I always forget that this platform auto-crops videos. Here's the full version of what I posted yesterday regarding the housing minister's comment on the immigration target.
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One of the most popular memes among young people today is "hawk tuah". But I'm trying to figure out how we get them to hawk tuah the polls and vote on that thang 🤔
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For reference, since some people think this is a serious issue and not just a silly meaningless gaffe, here's the unedited clip of Singh talking about potatoes/apples. Boulerice quickly corrects the error, Singh cracks a joke, and they have a laugh about it, then continue.
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As someone who writes this sort of content, I have significant doubts that Poilievre wrote much or any of it. If he did write it, then he understands and omitted how his own party contributed to this mess, and how his proposed solutions are basically more of the same.
I have no doubt Mr. Poilievre wrote much of this content himself.
I can't imagine Mr. Trudeau trying to do the same.
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They also decided that the CEO's performance - in this year where the performance was so bad that it wiped out triple the cumulative added value over the past 17 years - deserved not just a bonus, but an above-average bonus:
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Several people have been retweeting my criticisms of CPPIB as support for an Alberta Pension Plan.
I don't know who needs to hear this, but if the problem is an inefficient, ineffective, expensive system, the solution is not to duplicate that system and have two of them.
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Big 180 on messaging from Miller here. In October, he said that implementing a cap would be like doing "surgery with a hammer".
Canada’s international student cap is here. How will it work? |
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I was getting all geared up for a good news story on inflation for this week's Friday Update, as markets were anticipating a rise in headline inflation, but a drop in core inflation (which is more relevant). Turns out both are up, so it'll be your regularly-scheduled bad news. 🤷♂️
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Poilievre up in arms about $3.3 million in bonuses being paid to 45 executives at CBC.
Meanwhile, CPPIB paid out $16.98 million to their six top executives, in a year when they under-performed their reference portfolio by $64.1 billion.
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But don't worry, there's an absolute performance bonus as well, so they get a bonus if their investments return anything more than 0% overall:
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While he may seem non-committal on affordable housing for humans, Calgary city councillor Terry Wong is tackling the important questions: how will Calgarians make ends meet if a house for their hamburger costs 15 cents?
People shouldn't have to eat cold fries, or a burger off the floor, or drink a pop without worrying about spillage becuz they won't pay for a bag or not be given a straw. Some fear what they will hear from kids if they can't buy Happy Meals cuz if there is a single-use box fee.
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...and they still decided that because their relative performance was -63.7 billion dollars, it resulted in a bonus multiplier that was too low, so they gave their staff an upward adjustment. Accountability!
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This isn't really "new", they restarted overnight repo in July. Keep in mind that these loans roll over each day, so it's not cumulative - but it does represent about 30-35% of the market.
NEW
The Bank of Canada is injecting $16B (the max amount permitted)
EVERY. SINGLE. DAY
to try and hammer down interest rates to its 4.5% target.
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10.5% property tax hike is the headline everyone is talking about today.
My question: in the 2023 budget, property taxes represented 30% of tax/fee revenue, land transfer tax made up 6%.
RE dollar volume has fallen 42% since 2021. Does this new hike even cover that shortfall?
Toronto’s proposed budget includes property tax hike of 10.5 per cent
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Absolutely debtpilled and creditmaxxed
A reverse mortgage credit card exists.
No payments until you sell or pass away.
Anyone heard of this?
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Also: This post should not be construed as an endorsement of Trudeau or any other federal politician. I think they're all terrible.
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Good video, and not a unique situation either. Mandatory viewing for people who think more leverage is always and advantage in RE investing.
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An important leading indicator of chronic financial stress - demand for food bank services. Roughly quadruple in the last four years. (Image:
@TheLocal_TO
)
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Remember last month when I said once the YoY price trend turned negative (because of the brief price rise 12 months ago), the headlines would flip to focus on something else? Well, here you go:
The numbers for January are out from TRREB and the focus of the press release is number of sales because it’s the only positive metric right now 😉
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Due to my comment section's CONSTANT HARASSMENT, I have finally made a video on the subject of immigration:
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By the time Trudeau loses the next election, these lines may very well be converged again, as they were during the first five years of each admin. Does the next guy have a plan to actually change course, or is this rate of price growth just fine, like it was from 2006-2015?
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I bet most of them haven't even SEEN a real bear
The majority of licensed realtors in Canada haven’t worked through a real bear market.
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@ShaziGoalie
@jasongofficial
@ArowzLimited
@therealhebrahim
I'm sure this doesn't need to be said to this crowd, but $45k in gross income on a 1.8 million capital investment is a seriously trash return lol
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@Tablesalt13
Can we stop pretending like extending more debt magically makes housing more affordable lol
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