Michael Lowry
@MichaelRLowry
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Hurricane Specialist & Storm Surge Expert @WPLGLocal10 @ABC Miami. Alum @NWSNHC , @FEMA , @weatherchannel , @UCAR_CPAESS , @DeptofDefense , @FLSERT . Tweets my own.
Joined April 2012
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I'm not sure how many truly grasp what just happened tonight with Hurricane
#Ian
. It went through a full eyewall replacement cycle, hardly blinked, grew by 50% (as measured by its RMW), and delivered the 3rd highest storm surge since 1913 to Key West in the process. Just wow.
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Category 5 Hurricane
#Irma
closing in on the Leeward Islands with sustained 185 mph winds. Catastrophic damage expected along its path.
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We can squabble over what's behind the rapid Atlantic warming, but it's truly extraordinary to see waters in the Main Development Region of the tropics as warm in June as they typically are the first week of *September*. An undeniably big player this hurricane season.
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Hurricane
#Lee
is in elite company tonight. Fewer than 1% of all tropical cyclone "fixes" ever attain Category 5 strength. Lee is the farthest southeast we've ever observed a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since records began 172 years ago. Lorenzo (2019) the farthest east.
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I know others have tweeted something similar, but to see a catastophic Category 5 hurricane closing in our 3rd most populous state is wildly unnerving.
#Dorian
is already a disaster for so many tonight. Please, please heed the warnings of local officials in the hours ahead.
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The Gulf of Mexico this week is the hottest it's been at any point in any year on record by a wide margin. Weekly averaged Gulf sea surface temperatures have never broken 87°F but this week topped 88°F, an astonishing 1.4°C (2.6°F) above the 1991-2020 average.
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This is woefully dishonest. This was taken from a C-17 ~40 min from Oahu, not CA (and not by Peter Singer). The glow is from a sun angle below the horizontal plane illuminating shallow altocumulus clouds. Not fires. Not lava. Thankfully I don't believe everything on the twitters.
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The last frame of this satellite loop of rapidly strengthening Hurricane
#Otis
is numbing. It's intensifying at a rate I've not seen — faster than satellite estimates can keep up with using practical constraints. Nearing Cat 5 on approach to Acapulco, Mexico. Horrific scenario.
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Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) — where most of our Category 3 or stronger hurricanes form during the peak months of hurricane season — are as warm today in mid-February as they typically are in middle July. Incredible.
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The National Hurricane Center is calling
#Otis
a "nightmare scenario."
"This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area...There are
no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part
of Mexico."
Heavy words tonight from
@EricBlake12
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For only the third time on record (since 1851), 3 Atlantic tropical cyclones formed over 24 short hours (TD6, Emily, Franklin). The historic tropical cyclone outbreak this weekend was matched only by August 22, 1995, and August 15, 1893.
#hurricanes
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To put into perspective Ian's storm surge forecast from
@NHC_Surge
, here are monthly maximum water levels for two of our longest-running
@NOAA
tide gauges in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. In over 50 years, we've not observed anything resembling the surge flooding predicted.
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Who could've guessed Washington County, Maine — the easternmost point in the contiguous U.S. bordering Canada — would be in the
@NWSNHC
forecast cone more than any other county in the U.S. this hurricane season (162 hr)? No conefalls for South Florida or Louisiana so far in 2023.
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This radar loop (via
@markniss_
) is over 25 hours long. To face this duration of Category 4/5 hurricane conditions is inconceivable. My thoughts this evening are with all those devastated by this terrible storm.
#Dorian
#Bahamas
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The eye of still Cat 5 Hurricane
#Irma
now only 55 mi east-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. A rare, impressive, and dangerous sight.
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Of the 1,869 Atlantic storms recorded over the last 169 years, only 18 have recorded winds as strong or stronger than Hurricane
#Dorian
right now (175 mph). This is truly an historic storm.
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The videos from Ian's back side are stunning. Mike's done more severe weather coverage than almost anyone on this planet. That's quite a statement.
We were in the eye wall of Cat. 4
#Hurricane
#Ian
for over 5 hours and the back side was the worst.
I haven't experienced anything close to this in over 30 years
@weatherchannel
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20 years ago, this sunny day, high tide flooding wasn't a thing in Miami. Today, it happens a handful of times a year. By 2050 -- well within my lifetime --
@noaaocean
predicts fair weather flooding as often as 50-60+ days/year (once/week). This is our future.
#ClimateChange
Saltwater bubbling up from Biscayne Bay onto Miami’s streets. Not a drop of rain for the past several days.
#SaltLife
#KingTide
#sealevelrise
via
@TropicMotion
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To put Hurricane Lee's size into perspective,
@NWSNHC
estimates hurricane winds extend outward a remarkable 110 nm (127 miles) from its center. Since 2004, only four other hurricanes have had 64-kt wind radii as large — Ike (2008), Lorenzo (2019), Teddy (2020), and Sandy (2012)
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Evacuation plans are predicated on storm surge, not rainfall flooding. Rain evacuations difficult to impossible due to forecast limitations.
This is one reason why Houston didn't evacuate...they've tried that, and the costs were enormous.
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As native New Orleanian, tropical meteorologist, and emergency manager who spends every day planning for the next big hurricane, my heart sinks when I see this. I don't know what tomorrow brings, but I do hope everyone finds shelter from the storm in the weary hours ahead.
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The dearth of Saharan dust this June across the tropical Atlantic is exceptional. Compare the extent to a typical June, last June, or June 2020 for a recent dusty example. Dustiness explains ~35% of SST variability in the summer so less dust generally means a toastier Atlantic.
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David has been forecasting this stuff for decades with the National Weather Service and is one of the best in the business. His allusion to rainfall totals from Harvey and Florence shouldn't be taken lightly.
#Hilary
#cawx
#nvwx
@AliciaMBentley
The resultant 5 day QPF is as extreme as you’d imagine, given the above. Pixel of 10”+. Note the broad 2-5” area, which includes spots like Death Valley and Las Vegas. This is a year or so for rain for them, on average. The Western equivalent of a Harvey or Florence.
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Don't let anyone fool you. THE single biggest meteorological development today with
#Florence
is its now massive wind field. It's hard to overstate the significance of this. It will have major implications for the storm surge and damage potential. Do NOT let your guard down!
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(1/) Something really remarkable is happening off the coast of
#Peru
and here's why you should care...
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Despite all the Cat 5 chatter, this is the real headline in the hours ahead. An unthinkable
#surge
of saltwater will sweep ashore, causing widespread destruction across an incredible stretch of SE Texas and SW Louisiana -- the likes of which we haven't seen in a very long time.
Water levels are on the rise. Stations across Louisiana are currently reporting 1-3 foot storm surge
A 50 mph gust was recently recorded at the Freshwater Canal station
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David has covered a lot of devastating storms, including Katrina. He's one of the best. Please keep him and all of our friends back in New Orleans in your thoughts as you go to bed tonight. They're going to need the help not just tomorrow, but in the long months ahead.
This is the hardest day of my 30 year career. And tomorrow isn’t looking much better. We are being devastated.
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A weekly average Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature anomaly greater +2.0°C (relative to 1971-2000 climatology) is exceptional -- in fact, it's the highest (absolute) anomaly of the satellite record for the Gulf. The warmth this Spring in the southeast U.S. is no coincidence!
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When it comes to
#hurricanes
and tropical storms, there's
#Florida
and then there's everyone else.
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Can't stress this enough. Don't do it. The forecast is for 5-8 feet of life-threatening storm surge into Tampa Bay. The water will return!
ALERT: Water surrounding Tampa Bay is very low due to the storm. It is dangerous to be walking out there.
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Based on
#Irma
's satellite presentation and recent pressure estimates from Hurricane Hunters, it appears to be wasting no time reorganizing.
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Just 20 years ago, there was some question whether mesovortices even existed. Now we're seeing them regularly in splendid detail on satellite. Science is truly amazing.
Mesovortices in Barbara, a powerful category 4 hurricane.
Incredibly detailed satellite imagery.
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The western Caribbean can be a breeding ground for strong hurricanes in October. Waters typically peak this time of year and this week they're the warmest on record, topping 87°F (30.6°C) for the first time. Nothing in the models now, but a region to watch next month.
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Best analogy for
#GOESR
satellite upgrade is like going from 2007 iPhone to current iPhone 6. 2017 weather in HD burst mode. Bigly stuff.
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Last week the Gulf of Mexico recorded its warmest weekly anomaly on record at 1.5°C above the 1982-2011 average. That's some serious warmth.
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Video beginning to trickle in of the damage in Acapulco in the wake of Category 5 Hurricane Otis. The high-rise damage is extreme along with the defronding of hearty palms. Really sobering to see this level of hurricane damage in such a densely populated urban corridor.
#Mexico
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With this landfall statement,
#Dorian
's winds are estimated at an astounding 185 mph. Only 4 storms on record (since 1851) in the Atlantic have estimated winds of 185 mph or higher:
Allen (1980) - 190 mph
Wilma (2005) - 185 mph
Gilbert (1988) - 185 mph
1935 Labor Day - 185 mph
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From 1981-2002, daily average water temps in the tropical Atlantic never cracked 83°F. We've done it in 9 of 15 years since, including 2017.
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Out-of-season tropical formation is FAR more unusual in the eastern Pacific than in the Atlantic. No tropical system has ever been recorded prior to May in the eastern Pacific (since records began in 1949).
@NHC_Pacific
giving 50/50 odds of a January first.
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Here are first formations by year for tropical cyclones in the eastern North Pacific (east of 140°W) since recordkeeping began in 1949. Tropical Depression One-E this morning is easily the earliest eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record (by 2 weeks).
#hurricanes
#climatology
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It's wild just how warm the western Caribbean is headed into November. Weekly sea surface temperatures are about as warm today as any previous time of year prior to 2023. And we're a full month and a half removed from the typical mid-September climatological peak. Astounding.
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"...storm totals may reach 50 inches..." This could be the most rainfall ever observed from a tropical cyclone in United States history.
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For South Florida the time for hope has passed. A potentially catastrophic hurricane is headed your way. If ordered to leave, get out.
#Irma
You can't wait for more model runs and just hope things change. You have to prepare for a hurricane. It's as simple as that.
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No better way to celebrate
#EarthDay
than marrying your best friend and fellow meteorologist. I love you
@WeatherKait
! (photo:
@andy_brophy
)
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Extra special to be able to show our amazing little girl one of our favorite spots for the first time. Couldn't have asked for a more beautiful weekend!
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What an awful satellite picture to wake up to this morning. This is an extremely dangerous and potentially catastrophic
#hurricane
. For those in the path of
#Laura
, final preparations should be rushed to completion. My thoughts are with our friends in Louisiana and Texas today.
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The experienced forecasters
@NWSTallahassee
not mincing words on
#Idalia
in today's area forecast discussion. If you live in Florida’s Big Bend from Apalachicola east - including inland areas like Tallahassee or Perry - don't sleep on this one. Within about 24 hours of the worst.
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Still one of my favorite tropical climatology plots I've made. When shear is low and waters are warm, look for storms.
#hurricanes
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With 155 mph winds, Hurricane
#Ian
teetering on becoming only the fifth Category 5 hurricane to strike the mainland U.S. on record (Cat 5 starts at 157 mph). Whether it does or doesn't is of no consequence or comfort for communities in the path. Catastrophic impacts regardless.
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After 5 amazing hurricane seasons
@weatherchannel
I'll be taking a commercial break. THANK YOU for your trust and viewership over the years.
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#Irma
's satellite presentation has markedly improved over the past few hours. On the cusp of Cat 5 as it closes in on Cuba.
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With winds of 145 mph, Hurricane
#Lorenzo
really is in a league of its own for this time of year.
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Almost without precedent in the modern era is a northeastward moving Cat 2-3 hurricane coming ashore within 100 miles of Tampa. Gladys (1968), Easy (1950), and the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane all brought big surge flooding. Gently sloping seafloor nearby a big surgemaker.
#Ian
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Watching
@DrGregForbes
battle through cancer while steadfastly keeping you safe was marvelous and inspiring. He's a hero, plain and simple.
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A tale of two super El Niños. 18 years apart, can you spot the global warming?
#climatechange
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December no stranger to big time west Pacific typhoons. Cat 3/4 equivalent
#Nockten
#NinaPH
targeting Luzon for Christmas
#Philippines
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As of tonight, there have been 33 Category 5 hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, including
#Maria
. Here is where each peaked.
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Surreal photo from the Hurricane Hunters inside the eye of Category 5
#HurricaneDorian
#Dorian
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Happy to share I've been appointed to positions with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and
@FEMA
. More below 👇
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Took the liberty of combining the forecast cone and 3-day rainfall forecast for
#PTC3
. Notice the heaviest rainfall falls east of the cone.
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15 years later, the devastation
#Katrina
wrought to the beautiful Mississippi Gulf coast still resonates. An unimaginable 28-foot storm
#surge
upended lives and forever altered the coastline and its diverse ecosystem. The best we can do is learn for a stronger future.
#Katrina15
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Only ~15% of Cabo Verde hurricanes strike the U.S., but the ones that do are typically noteworthy.
Ivan (2004)
Isabel (2003)
Georges (1998)
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To reiterate, if the forecast verifies this would rival an all-time U.S. storm total rainfall record.
#houstonflood
#Harvey
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This is such a huge story.
#Michael
absolutely decimated crops in Georgia. Pecans, cotton, timber, vegetables. Some places 80-100% losses. It's going to take the better part of a decade to recover from some of this.
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There is a national disaster unfolding in Texas right now. The scale and scope is unimaginable. Thankful for our first responders, rescuers.
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From El Niño's peak last November-December to its impending demise. Anomalies across the main El Niño monitoring region haven't been this cool since last June. Headed toward neutral conditions this spring and into a potential La Niña into the summer.
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Today is Day One of the 183-day long Hurricane Season. Though hurricanes can happen anytime, 80% of hurricanes (and 90% of Cat 3+) form during the 81-day stretch between August 1st and October 20th.
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#Danielle
yesterday formed in a part of the north Atlantic smashing sea surface temperature records. For the first time since complete satellite coverage of oceans began in 1981, waters topped 80°F in the area near Danielle, rivaling the warmth of the deep tropics in summer.
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After a cool(ish) start to 2018, Gulf of Mexico waters are back to near record warmth 🔥
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*IF* you're being ordered to evacuate please do so NOW. This is a potentially devastating hurricane. Staying isn't worth the risk.
#Matthew
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The pattern of rising and sinking air across the tropics globally this July is intriguing compared to recent big, budding El Niños like 1997 and 2015 (or even 1982). We've seen more rising air west of the dateline than what we'd expect and sinking across areas of the NE Pacific.
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Since mid-June, weekly water temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico have soared, reaching record levels for the time of year. So far in 2023, the Gulf is the warmest it's been in the satellite record, surpassing 2020 for the warmest start to a year since at least 1981.
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#Florence
is now a borderline Category 4
#hurricane
. None of our forecast models saw this sort of strengthening in the face of 20-25 kt shear. We've made great strides in forecasting, but still a lot left to learn. (satellite via
@UWSSEC
, plots via
@HurricaneModels
)
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