Dr. Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Followers
102,891
Following
928
Media
4,160
Statuses
10,896
Owner/developer of . PhD in meteorology from FSU. Senior Scientist at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Opinions are mine alone.
Honolulu, HI
Joined July 2011
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Cohen
• 371258 Tweets
Liverpool
• 121043 Tweets
OpenAI
• 120675 Tweets
Lima
• 93807 Tweets
GPT-4o
• 80695 Tweets
Fábio
• 45517 Tweets
#WWERaw
• 35577 Tweets
#ラヴィット
• 26628 Tweets
Richas
• 25084 Tweets
Bronny
• 22906 Tweets
Goff
• 21687 Tweets
Garland
• 20942 Tweets
Diniz
• 19596 Tweets
QSMP
• 18553 Tweets
Gallardo
• 17108 Tweets
This is one of the most impressive rapid intensification episodes I've ever seen in the Atlantic. Hurricane
#Lee
went from having no eye this morning to possibly Cat 5 intensity this evening. Absolutely incredible.
192
2K
6K
I'm very happy to have defended my dissertation yesterday. It was a special moment to have so many people in my life supporting me. My heart is full :)
At long last, I can "officially" be a meteorologist on paper. Believe me, that feels weirder to me than it does to you lol.
437
113
4K
Personal update:
With a new year comes a new opportunity. I've accepted a position at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, where TCs around the world are monitored. I'm excited to make 2021 a new adventure! Thanks to my
@HRD_AOML_NOAA
colleagues who made 2020 a successful year. 🌀
280
74
3K
Weak steering currents & stalling storms should never be trusted.
With 72 hours before Dorian turns north, even a 1 mph error in the storm's speed until then could result in a 72 mile error in how far west Dorian gets.
Stay vigilant. More changes could occur. It's a tough one.
61
670
2K
My love said yes!
@kayla_beesting
if I'm the mean and you're the eddy, together we'll be true and steady. May interesting weather follow us wherever we go.
#OverbarPlusPrime
= 🧡
191
32
2K
New recon aircraft is measuring surface winds of 150-155 mph in the northeastern eyewall of Hurricane
#Laura
, very close to Category 5 intensity.
74
909
2K
I did a thing last week -- the best thing of my life, becoming
@drkaylabeesting
's husband in the middle of my Alaskan homeland. Pretty sure nothing can stop us now 🧡 May the skies above us never be dull ⛈️🌀
126
18
1K
Hurricane
#Lee
has been disrupted significantly by some mid-level wind shear in the past 24 hours, with max winds down to 115 mph after being as high as 160 mph at one point. Models suggest that the shear will subside by Sunday morning, probably allowing Lee to regain strength.
30
194
1K
Celebrating 10 years of with a significant expansion of ECMWF plots, a fresh coat of (optional) paint, and a new partnership.
Thread below for details 👇
65
103
1K
This is as extreme as it ever gets. Prayers for the Bahamas. And Florida, don't sleep on this one. We still cannot guarantee that
#Dorian
will stay offshore. Be ready just in case.
29
526
1K
Welp, that escalated VERY quickly. Hurricane
#Lee
may already be a Cat 5 hurricane, or darn close to it.
Live recon aircraft observations here:
45
233
1K
Most recent dropsonde in
#Dorian
's eye has a "V" signature that indicates sinking air almost all the way to the ocean surface. This is an extreme signature, and very rare.
The pressure when adjusted for surface wind is about 913mb.
27
472
1K
Thanks to your generous support this week, is being migrated to an upgraded webserver!
This migration will take a few hours. If you see a welcome message on the model page, you're on the new one! Let me know if you encounter problems. It should be faster
48
51
1K
No video tonight. The forecasting chapter of
#Dorian
is essentially over, with impacts being all that remain, and the ways in which I can be useful quickly diminish now. Listen to local officials and be safe!
144
44
978
NOAA plane went right back into the eye and found a 4mb fall to 909mb relative to its 913mb reading 40 minutes before that.
58
339
958
New plane has penetrated Hurricane
#Ian
, and is finding evidence that the secondary wind max observed earlier is intensifying, and evolving into an outer eyewall that now has stronger winds than the inner eyewall, at least in the SE quadrant. Eyewall replacement cycle underway.
33
267
1K
I must apologize for the lack of updates during the last couple days. I've come down with a severe case of COVID-19 which is making it difficult to do anything at all. I'll try to make some posts during the next couple days, but videos are definitely out until I recover.
222
20
994
Development of a double eyewall means that the core wind field of
#Ida
is broader, not a great development to see just before landfall. The storm has also begun to slow down, which was expected, but begins to reveal just how big a flooding threat Ida is.
14
278
957
🌀 The Atlantic hurricane season nears, and two key oceanic regions are flashing signs of above-average storm activity. Developing La Niña is beginning to spread cold water across the equatorial Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. This contrast generally
18
252
934
The back half of August will be the first test of the theory that a warm Atlantic can lead to periods of significant tropical activity despite El Nino.
A shift of large-scale convection (green in first image) into the western hemisphere favors the eastern Pacific first, but
24
169
904
Large waves will spread outward from Hurricane
#Lee
causing dangerous beach conditions and the possibility for coastal erosion along the U.S. eastern seaboard this week
26
244
857
It's that time during a major tropical event where I apologize for feeling slower than normal at times due to the flood of traffic on the site. I'm doing my best to keep it optimized, but at the end of the day I'm not Google. And no, I cannot go cloud ;)
58
29
845
Recon aircraft finding even stronger winds in
#Dorian
this evening. Data suggests maximum winds have increased to 155-160 mph.
25
346
777
What a gorgeous sight - I hope everyone is getting a good view! I only got 17.5% coverage at sunrise in Hawaii, but I got my totality experience during the 2017 eclipse.
Cheers to all fortunate enough to observe this phenomenon. It always puts the universe in perspective for me.
13
128
817
A swath of ferocious winds possibly gusting over 100 mph (purple colors) is nearing Wilmington, NC and the coastline surrounding Cape Fear very quickly. Do *not* be outside.
29
327
765
Cancun radar suggests that
#TD10
may be developing a more tightly wrapped circulation core, which is now drifting southwestward. If this structure remains over water for the next 24-36 hours, we are likely to see intensification.
Radar loop from
@conagua_clima
and
@BMcNoldy
20
171
774
Think is finally back. It's been an annoying day. Got some unhappiness flooding my inbox, but thanks to those of you who were patient.
Some products like sat imagery will take a few minutes to backfill.
67
16
755
The recon plane's pass just now through
#Laura
's northern eyewall once again measured winds of ~155 mph, right on the cusp of Category 5 intensity. Central pressure is down ~1 mb since the previous pass, indicating no reversal of the intensification trend yet.
27
302
733
Recon found an estimated pressure of 946mb just now, pending a dropsonde to get a more accurate reading. That's a rapid drop from 970mb about 6 hours ago.
73
265
722
Recon data indicates that Hurricane
#Ian
has continued intensifying and now has maximum winds of at least 155 mph. Catastrophic 12-16 ft storm surge is now expected from Bonita Beach to Englewood. Truly awful situation unfolding here.
20
232
751
Hurricane
#Ian
's outer eyewall has contracted from ~90 miles to ~60 miles wide during the past 6 hours, and the inner eyewall is beginning to disintegrate. Unfortunately, a quick completion of this eyewall replacement could lead to additional intensification prior to landfall.
25
215
747
Incredible wind velocities of 180 - 205 mph just above the ground were observed by a dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall of
#Laura
, helping to confirm the winds the plane observed. The surface winds would be lower due to friction, but still extreme.
35
273
719
Tropical Depression Three (
#TD3
, formerly Invest
#92L
) has formed in the central Atlantic, currently with max winds around 35 mph.
@NHC_Atlantic
predicts gradual intensification to hurricane strength with max winds of 80 mph prior to impacting the Lesser Antilles on
27
178
730
[
#NerdTweet
]
#Laura
's eye was there for a moment, but is now hidden. This isn't a sign of weakening here, but of intensification. Buoyant convective bursts (gray/pink) are spreading clouds over the eye while releasing heat inside the radius of maximum wind, causing pressure falls
29
172
720
Recon extrapolated pressure of 914mb and flight-level winds in the NW eyewall of 150 kt indicate that
#Dorian
has probably leveled off and stopped intensifying.
25
175
662
Meanwhile, a rare tropical cyclone has formed in the Mediterranean Sea, likely packing winds near 100 km/h or so right now. It will impact Greece tonight and Friday with strong winds and heavy rain.
21
184
688
Recon just found an estimated pressure of 973mb in Hurricane
#Dorian
, 13mb lower than earlier, and winds may be approaching 100 mph. Dorian is strengthening again, rather quickly this evening.
43
350
646
All indications are now that
#Ian
will make landfall well south of Tampa Bay, far enough that storm surge estimates from NHC have come down a whole lot today as a result, but have gone up dramatically from Charlotte Harbor to Naples. This will be a top-end event for this region.
50
189
686
Alright, big website addition: GOES-16 satellite imagery!
Your new source of static tropical loops and floaters. More products/regions may be added later depending on computational resources.
Oh and by the way, it works great on the phone! Check it out.
45
138
676
This is a terrifying radar signature. Two closed, concentric rings with the inner one holding the largest rain rates is a feature of only the very strongest TCs. Hoping the people in the Philippines make it through this supertyphoon.
Truly spectacular radar presentation. Looks like concentric eyewalls, but the inner one was clearly still dominant as Super
#Typhoon
#GONI
(
#RollyPH
) made landfall.
(Thx,
@IamthatrealJuan
, for the image.)
16
42
355
17
126
633
Model trends today are for
#Dorian
to get closer to Jacksonville, FL & Savannah, GA than previously forecast.
While still expected to be offshore, the storm core is now rather large, and risk of storm surge, rain flooding, and damaging winds is growing. Don't sleep on this one.
23
329
596
Second recon pass through
#Ida
shows a preliminary pressure drop of ~10-11 mb in an hour and a half. If verified by dropsonde, this indicates explosive intensification. NE eyewall winds were measured in ballpark of 130 mph at the surface, which would be on edge of Cat 4 strength.
25
260
621
Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 42 mph) with gusts to 56 mph are now being observed at Buoy 42056 just east of
#Idalia
's center. The buoy is located roughly at the yellow dot in the accompanying satellite image.
17
118
619
Another 5mb drop since the last center pass ~80 minutes ago.
#Laura
still intensifying at a rapid pace.
31
197
594
Website note: Apologies if occasionally slows down or fails to load this week. The site is receiving unprecedented amounts of traffic. I'll nurse it as best I can.
44
24
582
New plane entering
#Laura
is finding surface wind estimates of 130-135 mph, which would make Laura a Category 4 hurricane.
28
257
577
Crazy data continues to come in from hurricane hunter aircraft sampling Hurricane
#Ida
. Central pressure down to ~935mb, max winds in the ballpark of 150 mph. Truly sobering.
The eye is only a few hours from
#Louisiana
now. Recent radar motion is in direction of Grand Isle, LA
30
230
587
#Dorian
likely to weaken going forward due to islands & ocean cooling.
Floridians: 185mph vs 120mph shouldn't matter to you. Surge & rainfall flooding could be just as impactful regardless. And when eyewall winds weaken, winds outside eyewall (what FL is likely to see) may not.
26
179
554
While can handle 25% more traffic than last year, I know it doesn't feel like it right now.
Your generous support enables me to consider expensive solutions. I may even try something big this weekend. Your help goes a long way!
21
79
584
No video on
#Elsa
today. I usually stop these near landfall, as when the forecasting is done, my usefulness fades quickly. It's about local impacts now - I'm not the authority on that front. Emergency managers, NWS, and local media are the ones to go to. Be smart and safe!
22
18
584
Hurricane
#Lee
could bring a variety of hazardous conditions to the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada later this week, but how severe and widespread will depend on Lee's track and how quickly it approaches land.
An encouraging sign is that models expect Lee to slow down
15
99
578
Wishing the best to everyone in Louisiana in the aftermath of Hurricane
#Laura
today...the damage is sobering. Dangerous impacts are still occurring inland as the storm moves northward.
7
57
554
I will have a video update on Invests 97L and 98L out within the next couple hours.
22
26
552
We've seen an explosion of lightning within
#Dorian
's eyewall during the last 30-60 minutes. This is likely a reflection of the profound strength of the eyewall updrafts as the storm rapidly intensifies.
Loop from
@Weathernerds
17
255
538
As we enter the peak weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, it will be interesting to see where genesis events are produced. Sometimes, El Nino's suppressive influence on the Caribbean leads to a northward shift in the favorable zone.
In a year when the Gulf of Mexico + west
20
121
561
will load more slowly than normal at times this week due to Invests 97L and 98L generating traffic. I'm doing my best to keep the site performant during times like this, both now and in the future. Thanks for your patience.
34
28
546
Hurricane
#Iota
has rapidly intensified over the last several hours, with recon now finding max winds of ~145 mph and a central pressure that is still plummeting. Very sobering trend with many hours still remaining before landfall.
17
113
529
🌀Friday afternoon
#TropicalTidbit
video update on Hurricane
#Hilary
which will bring significant impacts to the southwestern U.S.
Second half of the video discusses Atlantic systems which may develop into tropical storms and impact the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
16
117
555
#Ian
's pressure continues to fall to 954mb as strengthening continues.
Radar and recon data show signs of a secondary wind max forming outside of the eyewall. This increases odds of an eyewall replacement cycle occurring in the near future, which would expand the core wind field
24
130
550
Radar imagery over the past 2 hours shows the first signs of
#Idalia
forming an inner core structure, with banding wrapping around a greater fraction of the center (red dot). If this structure persists overnight, a phase of quick intensification may be about to begin.
18
122
547
#Ida
is exhibiting a more coherent eyewall structure on satellite this morning, with multiple rotating convective bursts around the core. This suggests that a quicker pace of intensification will likely begin soon. Pressure is down 8mb since leaving Cuba.
15
128
550
Recon data indicates that Hurricane
#Ida
has finally leveled off in intensity during the last couple hours. Unfortunately, this is only a tiny comfort at this point. Hoping for everyone's safety as the eyewall nears shore.
4
92
549
New recon data shows that
#Ian
has strengthened into an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds over 140 mph. Unfortunately, Ian may make landfall near its peak intensity.
22
129
546
About to record a new video, will be out before we get too deep into the evening, hopefully
25
20
548
Recon is finding
#Ian
steadily strengthening, finding 90-100 mph in eastern eyewall and pressure down to 966mb. The western side still has a double wind max indicating that the inner core is not perfect, but the eyewall is becoming better defined on radar.
19
108
540
Wednesday
#TropicalTidbit
video discussion on Tropical Storm
#Lee
, expected to track north of the
#Caribbean
as a powerful hurricane. Some impacts to the northeastern Caribbean islands this weekend from the southern side of Lee cannot be ruled out, so be prepared.
I spend more
21
93
538
Animated visible imagery shows that Invest
#93L
is becoming better organized, with curved banding wrapping into a now closed circulation sitting in the Yucatan Channel. A tropical depression could be classified by
@NHC_Atlantic
at any time.
25
118
539
[
#NerdTweet
]
#Ida
has curved convective structures moving outward w/ time. These may be vortex Rossby waves that have a radial component of propagation, & can deposit momentum at various radii, modulating vortex structure. Such internal processes are important but hard to predict
47
75
527
#Dorian
's core has held together remarkably well compared to typical hurricanes that move up the east coast. The eyewall is now directly impacting the outer banks of North Carolina.
16
157
491
Latest air force pass through
#Dorian
's eye found an extrapolated pressure even lower, at ~907mb. Awaiting dropsonde for a more accurate measurement, but Dorian has strengthened yet again since the last pass.
24
205
494
As sunset approaches over Tropical Storm
#Idalia
, core thunderstorm activity near the circulation center remains concentrated on the eastern side. No significant progress in building an eyewall has yet been made, and the vortex remains a little tilted with height, which is
18
110
523
The GFS commonly develops fictitious storms in the western Caribbean. Typically, these arise from the aggregation of multiple small-scale vorticity perturbations (left panel) caused by and collocated with strong bursts of convection/precip (right panel).
While the GFS is not
21
82
524
Tropical Storm
#Idalia
has a strong convective burst occurring on the southeastern side of its center as sunset approaches. How quickly thunderstorms like this are able to fully encircle Idalia's center will determine how soon it strengthens into a hurricane. This will be a key
9
107
519
I've had the suspected faulty hardware replaced for the server, and the website seems to be back up. Hope it stays that way. Some data will take time to backfill and update. Thanks for your patience, again.
29
18
510
Recon update 9:15pm CDT: New Air Force plane is just now arriving, finding that
#Laura
's eastern eyewall remains as strong as it has ever been. No sign of weakening yet. Eye is now ~60 miles from Cameron, LA.
16
179
494
Truly saddened by how much
#Ida
impacted the northeast US through historic flooding. It's hard to be a meteorologist and see these things happen. Let's hope this is the last hurricane impact this season. Be safe, all.
16
31
512
An Air Force recon plane just measured 182 mph flight-level winds and 173 mph estimated surface winds in
#Irma
's NE eyewall. That's extreme.
17
559
487
This plane also found that
#Idalia
's central pressure is now falling at a faster pace than it had been in previous hours, indicating that the pace of strengthening may be quickening. This is unfortunately following the expectations of forecasters so far.
Near-surface winds hit about 100 mph in the eastern eyewall on this leg through
#Idalia
by a
@NOAA_HurrHunter
aircraft just now.
10
63
324
13
159
503
The
@NOAA_HurrHunter
aircraft investigating Tropical Storm
#Ian
is finding max surface winds of 60-65 mph now as a period of intensification has clearly begun.
Radar imagery from Grand Cayman shows an organizing inner core structure. Looks like Ian could become a hurricane soon.
20
95
499
Reconnaissance aircraft now finding winds in the ballpark of 105-110 mph in the eastern eyewall of Hurricane
#Idalia
. The storm's core structure continues to mature on radar imagery as rapid strengthening continues.
17
101
497
Hurricane
#Ida
has emerged north of Cuba with a slightly higher central pressure (~991 mb), but retains near-hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant at a small radius. This general structure is likely to facilitate a resumption of intensification fairly soon. Not the best news.
14
110
486
Here's what we know about
#Laura
:
* A strong hurricane w/ winds >100 mph, storm surge, & flash flooding is likely to strike between central TX & central LA coastlines on Wednesday
* Laura's potential peak strength has a high ceiling. While NHC forecasts Cat 2, prepare for Cat 4
26
193
476
Web update: the tremendous demand for satellite loops is starting to slow down since there is hard ceiling on how much data it can serve per second. Go easy on the refreshes😉
Today's video update on
#Ida
will be in a few hours once we have new recon data
22
45
498
Tonight's aircraft recon mission has found
#Idalia
's center underneath the deep convective burst that has been ongoing for the past few hours. Central pressure is down to 991mb, and surface winds of around 60 mph were found southeast of the center. Notably, the radius of max
9
97
490
Calcasieu Pass, LA reported a wind gust of 127 mph just before entering the eye of Hurricane
#Laura
a few minutes ago
6
156
476
Recon update 8:15pm CDT: central pressure estimate fell slightly again compared to the previous measurement.
#Laura
's intensification is still not over. Eye now ~75 miles from landfall.
18
158
471
2nd recon plane finds 910mb extrapolated pressure minutes after the first one found 913. It hasn't stopped falling yet.
29
166
462
Main message this morning:
So far,
#Dorian
has not made any unexpected moves toward Florida, which is good news.
Is there a way Dorian could still make landfall in central or northern FL? Yes, but chances are not high right now.
But, Hurricane Warnings are there for a reason.
15
161
452
A recon aircraft will enter Hurricane
#Eta
within the next half hour or so to measure just how strong it has become after rapidly intensifying all day.
NOAA reports data every 10 minutes, updated in real-time here:
14
84
467
New
@NHC_Atlantic
forecast update for Hurricane
#Ian
didn't get any better for the Tampa area. Hurricane Warning now up for parts of central Florida coastline. Up to 10 foot storm surge inundation forecast. Take coastal evacuation orders seriously!
17
117
471
Two weeks after Eta hit
#Nicaragua
, Hurricane
#Iota
is nearing landfall near the same location. Along with life-threatening conditions near the coast, flooding will occur throughout Central America. Let's all find a way to support the people in Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala.
11
111
456