Andy Hazelton
@AndyHazelton
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Associate Scientist at UM/CIMAS and NOAA AOML/HRD. This is a personal account and tweets do not represent the opinions of NOAA or UM. 3x FSU Alum #GoNoles
Miami, FL
Joined October 2012
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Time to break this out for the first time this year! Whole NOAA recon fleet getting ready to tackle
#98L
starting this weekend.
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Yeahhhh if these sorts of accounts are not only gonna get the blue check but get promoted by Twitter's algorithm it might be time to explore other options.
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About to do another mission into
#Ian
with the
@NOAA_HurrHunter
- the storm has been intensifying since yesterday and we'll see what it's up to tonight!
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Just landed from our NOAA mission into
#Idalia
. 2 main thoughts:
1) Thankfully being held back by Northwest shear for now, but I doubt that lasts long.
2) There's a large area of strong winds away from the center East. Entire West Coast of Florida likely to be impacted.
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HAFS is showing Lee approaching the limits of what an Atlantic hurricane could even theoretically be. This might be the strongest 850-hPa wind forecast I've ever seen from a numerical model not named the 3-km NAM 😂
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That semicircle of eyewall lightning in the north eyewall of
#Ian
as it moves north off Cuba is indicative of a healthy, strengthening core.
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Interesting to fly into a storm while the core is building. I was surprised at the pressure being that low on the first center sonde I did. Think
#Ian
means business. Tampa and the West Coast of Florida up into the Big Bend, now is the time to get ready.
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Another bumpy flight in
#HurricaneMichael
. What a monster. One of the most dynamically active storms I have ever seen, with eyewall mesovortices inside a small, steep eye.
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#Mawar
has turned into one of those Typhoons where you wonder "just how low would the pressure be if we had a plane out there to fly through it"? Basically maxing out the Dvorak Sale, with a perfectly symmetric CDO, classic eyewall stadium effect, and flawless outflow.
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So
#Ian
was definitely going through an eyewall replacement cycle during our mission today. Pretty fascinating to experience that on the plane as the bumps were spread over a much larger area than yesterday. Seems to be starting to complete - huge wind field with a surge threat.
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Pretty sure the 12Z Euro solution for the Gulf disturbance is just
@iCyclone
sitting on his porch in Mississippi with a giant fan pointed west to generate cyclonic vorticity 😆
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This is my creative interpretation of the state of our Atlantic waves this evening:
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This is a very concerning trend on the GFS for
#Idalia
over the last 5 cycles. When the global models start to go nuts with something, it makes the hurricane models harder to ignore. Seen several recent examples in the Gulf, unfortunately.
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This is absolutely nuts for an Atlantic hurricane.
This 2228 UTC GMI overpass of Hurricane
#Lee
is one of the most impressive microwave signatures I’ve ever seen in an Atlantic hurricane. Deep convection completely encircles the eyewall. Recon is about to find something wild.
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I think I just had the most Florida moment of all time: a love bug landed on my arm as I was walking out picking up food from Publix while the skies darken ahead of an approaching hurricane.
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Just got back from our mission - very interesting spiral band structure, and a very serious situation coming for Florida. Heed local officials, pay attention to changing forecasts, and stay safe!
About to do another mission into
#Ian
with the
@NOAA_HurrHunter
- the storm has been intensifying since yesterday and we'll see what it's up to tonight!
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The eyewall of Hurricane Ian continues to produce quite a bit of lightning. Also quite a bit of evidence for mesovortices in the eyewall (see the little notch features on both satellite and radar). Very dynamically active storm that is going to do a ton of damage :(
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Can't remember too many recon flights where basically the entire standard pattern finds hurricane force winds at flight level. Looks like the pressure in Lee is falling, but the maximum wind isn't increasing - it's just expanding its massive wind field even more.
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Seems likely
#95L
will be a strong hurricane in the SW Atlantic next week. Luckily for Florida, the 500-hPa pattern will be something we've seen a lot the last decade - ridge out west and trough out east. This acts as a "shield" keeping storms from approaching us from the East.
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In Lakeland getting ready to head to St. Croix for NOAA missions into
#Lee
starting tomorrow. Thinking we might see one of the stronger storms the Atlantic has ever produced by this weekend.
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Just landed after a long mission into
#Larry
. Interesting storm with a massive wind field. This bump in the NW eyewall (preserved for eternity by this plot from
@TropicalTidbits
) was one of the nastiest I have seen in a hurricane. Wondering if we hit a mesovortex.
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Tallahassee folks - even if
#Idalia
hits just to your east, I am concerned we might see an enhancement of the western eyewall as the storm interacts with the jet stream. Something similar in Ian last year generated some really nasty winds on the west side, so be careful.
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Jessica Grace Hazelton arrived at 9:24 am this morning! Mom and baby are doing well :)
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Having worked on HAFS for several years, including the retros for this operational version, the forecast for
#95L
is about as strong as I've seen it make a tropical cyclone. That doesn't necessarily mean it will happen for sure, but signal is there for a strong hurricanes.
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Pretty scary how well the short-term forecasts from yesterday from the hurricane models (e.g. HAFS and HWRF) captured the structure and intensification of Hurricane Ian as it approaches the coast of SW Florida.
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Unbelievable satellite image, with Hurricane Ian making landfall over Florida, with massive outflow into the jet streak to the NE.
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A June MDR hurricane and an Omega block walk into a bar...
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Another successful mission in
#Idalia
with
@NOAA_HurrHunter
. The storm has definitely gotten its act together in the last 24 hours, and may intensify all the way to landfall in Apalachee Bay tomorrow. Tampa, Tallahassee, Cedar Key, Jacksonville, and in between - be ready.
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"Since I stayed up to watch the FSU game might as well stay up for the 00z GFS" - lol what in the world?
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Getting ready to head into
#Idalia
on NOAA43! Looks like another attempt at eyewall formation is happening right now. Curious what this storm looks like when we're out there. Be safe and prepared everyone!
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Looks like a nasty convective burst in the NW eyewall of Hurricane Ian even post landfall. Likely seeing some strong winds mix down to the surface over Sarasota and Manatee counties with that feature.
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I guess tonight is showing us what happens in the rare climate state with a robust El Niño and near-record AMO.
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Wonder if it's some kind of interaction with the jet streak boosting
#Ian
? Seeing those winds on the NW side of the storm is nuts. HAFS from yesterday was predicting an evolution like this and I thought it was crazy.
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Wouldn't be surprised to see an eyewall replacement cycle in
#Ian
at some point. Several feeder bands, one of which seems to be wrapping into an outer eyewall with lightning. This can (temporarily) lower peak winds but make the storm larger, expanding impacts (including surge).
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I lived in Tallahassee for 7 years, met my wife and had our first child there. So it's an eerie feeling as I go to get a few hours of sleep before a landfall mission on the P3 into
#Idalia
. I hope everyone stays safe there and all through the Big Bend.
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If/when
#Idalia
becomes a storm research papers are written on, this will be one important aspect to look at - why did we see this trend away from land interaction with the Yucatan? Leads to a much higher ceiling for a storm in this part of the basin.
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Interesting evening flying in
#Lee
while it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. Very curious to see if HAFS is right and it completes the cycle and takes off, or whether the core continues to struggle to rebuild tomorrow?
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I think I'm gonna run for president just to issue an EO making it illegal to use a satellite picture from an old hurricane as a thumbnail in a story about a new (weak) storm.
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That might be one of the most defined supercells to ever show up on the Miami radar 😳 Thankfully it's out over water. Wonder if any boats have a view of that? Guessing there's a solid waterspout.
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You can see the eye mesovortices inducing convective bursts in the eyewall.Amazing what kinds of details we can see with satellite nowadays.
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#Ian
is looking like a very serious situation. The storm is a Category 3 over Western Cuba, and will move into the SE Gulf today. Models are locking in on a potential major hurricane landfall near or just south of Tampa tomorrow evening. Showing up on Key West radar now.
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The scales of tropical systems are so fascinating...
#Nicole
is clearly starting to "shed" its parent subtropical cyclone, with an increasingly-organized TC core starting to move towards Florida. If convection continues to wrap around the center, faster intensification possible.
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Looks like the entire eastern half of the U.S. is made up of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) tonight!
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I've seen the Hortense (1996) comparison made for
#Fiona
. Definitely some similarities on satellite near Puerto Rico.
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Little bit of a trend in GFS today for a stronger ridge to the north of
#Lee
as it moves north of the Antilles. Something to monitor because it could change the timing/angle on when and where it turns north.
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Getting ready for another mission with
@NOAA_HurrHunter
into
#Ian
to see what this thing is up to! Finalize preparations along the West Coast of Florida (and inland) for a rough couple days.
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The radar out of Cuba illustrates why
#Idalia
is only slowly intensifying for now. There is an offset (tilt) between the low/mid level circulations due to some northerly shear (saw it on the flight too). So the convective bursts aren't as effective at lowering the pressure. (1/2)
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The structure of
#Ian
has continued to improve since our flight last night. The small developing core has blossomed into a full CDO. The other thing I notice is the wind field is more symmetric - the south side was very weak last night, but now strong winds are wrapping around.
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Just got back from another
#Dorian
flight. This storm continues to strengthen, and I'm really worried for the Florida coast early next week. Hoping for a stall and turn, but people need to take this one very very seriously.
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#Otis
ended up basically being a worst-case scenario, with landfall near Acapulco as a Category 5 after a period of extreme RI yesterday. 2 things are true:
1) Models are way better than 20 years ago, including for RI.
2) Models whiffed badly here. Still so much for us to learn.
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Looks like dual-rotating mesovortices leading to convective burst formation in the eyewall of
#Fiona
as it moves close to the SW tip of Puerto Rico. This process led to TC intensification in the storms I studied during my PhD thesis.
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Starting to see an eye show up in the mesoscale visible imagery for
#Idalia
. Remarkable banding structure, with a huge surge of deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean. Just so ominous that a storm like this is yet again on a collision course with the Gulf Coast.
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Just from a pattern recognition perspective, this looks like a "ridge over troubled waters" setup in the Southern Caribbean next weekend. Sometimes you get air piling up there late season with continental high pressure to the north which can favor convection and sometimes TCs.
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Storm surge is such a devastating impact.
Big chunk of the Sanibel Causeway collapsed from
#Ian
. It is the only way on and off the island by car.
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Well that's something we haven't seen much of this year 😬 Caribbean islands definitely need to be on alert for 94L.
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One of the more insane debris signatures I've seen, near the Mississippi River North of Memphis.
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Breaking this out for the first time in two years. Getting ready for science missions into
#99L
this weekend with
@NOAA_HurrHunter
!
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Not gonna pretend to know much about damage indicators, but "water tower gets unbolted from the ground and folded over" isn't something you see too often.
Extreme damage in Rolling Fork, MS. Water tower was knocked over with bolts ripped out of the ground as well as multiple slabs. This was terrible.
#mswx
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This is one of the more passive-aggressive NHC headlines ever haha.
Tropical Storm
#Gert
Advisory 16: For the Second Month in a Row Gert Becomes a Tropical Storm.
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Looking behind
#Larry
, a few waves are over or moving off Africa. Larry's outflow will make things tough on the first. The middle one has a chance to develop but would likely turn north soon after moving off the coast. No imminent threats but some pieces to watch at peak season.
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#Otis
seems to be yet another in a long list of recent cases where a landfalling TC has a favorable interaction with a jet/trough leading to RI approaching land. Not sure if these are becoming more common, but it sure feels like we've had a lot lately in the EPAC and NATL.
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A ton of textbook TC structures going on in Laura right now as can be seen on vis imagery with the GLM lightning data:
-Diurnal pulse rainband (Dunion et al.) moving outward in outflow.
-Strong rain band wrapping inward.
-Eyewall convective bursts (sign of a deepening hurricane).
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Wave in the Central Atlantic has been tagged
#91L
. 30% chance of TC formation in 5 days. Some curvature and convection aided by upper-level divergence, but not clear if there's any kind of surface reflection yet. Right now the GFS ensemble shows some development, EPS not much.
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Few storms in the historical record close to what
#Idalia
is forecast to do. Closest analog is probably a Category 3 from 1896. Interesting that there are zero historical analogs doing what GFS/HWRF are, with a major hurricane right into Apalachee Bay. Rare event likely coming.
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That is quite an MCS with the wave slated to come off Africa this weekend. This one is probably a little too early relative to the MJO passage, but it's gonna be interesting to see when one of these tries to become our first significant Cabo Verde TC of the year.
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Obviously this one is way weaker, but seeing a hurricane headed for the Jupiter/Stuart/Fort Pierce area 6 weeks after Ian is bringing back Charley/Frances/Jeanne memories in this Central-Florida-raised weather nerd.
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Just finished our flight in
#Ida
. Interesting storm. Not quite as strong (yet) as I expected based on satellite, although recent trends suggest that may be changing. There were several "moat" areas between strong bands - wouldn't surprise me if it undergoes an ERC after peaking.
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Ummm is this accurate? If so best views in a passenger flight of all time 😬
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Western eyewall of
#Nicole
showing up on the Miami radar now. The east side doesn't show up due to attenuation and distance from the radar, but the Bahamas radar shows that side is looking fairly healthy too.
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@stormchasernick
@rebilasphoto
If your updraft lasts more than 4 hours, contact your doct...err...meteorologist.
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Core symmetry in
#Sam
right now is getting to that level you only see in the highest-end Atlantic hurricanes. Gonna be really interesting to see what kind of intensity recon finds. My personal guess would be *at least* mid-range Cat4 but after Iota last season you never know :)
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Starting to see some rightward adjustment in the GFS forecast for
#Ian
over the next couple days, partially due to a slightly weaker and further north initialization than it had been showing.
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Large-scale pattern near landfall for
#TD10
could favor intensification approaching the coast, with outflow enhanced by a strong jet streak. We saw similar setups with recent Gulf storms that rapidly intensified into landfall. Some shear may offset this, but something to watch.
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Almost looks like
#Ida
has a *triple* eyewall structure as it moves inland, with a strong band wrapping around the 2 concentric eyeballs and other bands further out as well. Our
@NOAA_HurrHunter
saw flight level hurricane force winds in 4-5 bands east of the center.
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18z HWRF is probably a "reasonable worst case" scenario for
#Nicole
if it's able to get its core going. In a track like this, worst weather would be in Palm Beach and Martin counties, with TS conditions extending up the coast. Broward would get some TS conditions. (1/3)
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Seeing evidence of secondary eyewall development in
#Idalia
right now. Probably won't have time to weaken the storm much before landfall, but the expansion of the wind field in the outer region (as seen on radar) could be important for places like Jacksonville and Tallahassee.
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Haiyan is one I'll always wonder what the minimum pressure really was (if we had recon). Sub 880? Sub 870?
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#Dorian
is a case that really illustrates how underdispersive the GFS ensembles tend to be. Just 24 hours apart, and virtually no overlap between any of the 2 solutions. Clearly one (or both) of these is not at all representing the possible range of outcomes.
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The operational hurricane models did really well overall with
#Idalia
's intensity evolution. Little bit of a weak bias from HAFS-A/HMON, but really solid forecasts overall, especially from HAFS-B/HWRF. Hopefully all the recon/TDR data assimilation helped with these forecasts.
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Complex and interesting meteorological setup with
#98L
. In a very divergent upper pattern east of the upper low, although the SW flow is bringing dry air near the developing center. The system will pivot around the upper low and try to get under a ridge by mid week. Odd track.
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New seasonal ECMWF, not surprisingly, continues to advertise a very busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for *double* the average ACE.
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TC-trough interactions always look majestic on satellite, with the long line of clouds stretching to the north.
#Sam
is weakening but decaying gracefully thanks to this trough interaction. It'll go fully extra tropical in a couple days. Remarkable classic Cabo Verde hurricane.
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#Lee
seems to be going for a repeat of the infamous Matthew 2016 "skull" satellite look. I guess we know what gives you that now - borderline Cat4/5 with a clear eye but asymmetric due to shear.
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Well, unfortunately the hurricane models were right about the pressure of
#Idalia
plummeting right before landfall. Very dangerous situation for the Big Bend with a Category 3-4 storm inbound in a matter of hours.
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I really hope that 0 deaths number from
#Idalia
holds. Good forecasts that allow people to prepare is why we do what we do in terms of research, development, etc. Unfortunately there's only so much that can be done to save property, but lives can be saved.
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Turns out turning the Atlantic ocean into a bath tub comes with some pretty crazy results.
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Worst case scenario doesn't really even cover how bad this is getting for SW Florida.
635 AM EDT 28 September -- Recent data from a
@NOAA_HurrHunter
aircraft indicate
#Ian
is rapidly intensifying & max sustained winds are now up to 155 mph.
This information will be reflected in a special advisory to be issued by 7 AM EDT (1100 UTC).
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You can see a bit of this stronger ridge trend for
#Lee
in the last two runs of the EPS too. Still plenty of clearance from the Leewards, but fewer members that escape north fast. Definitely keep an eye on this trend in the Turks/Caicos and SE Bahamas.
Little bit of a trend in GFS today for a stronger ridge to the north of
#Lee
as it moves north of the Antilles. Something to monitor because it could change the timing/angle on when and where it turns north.
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Latest CanSips trends towards an even warmer Atlantic and cooler ENSO for peak hurricane season. Honestly some of these climate model forecasts are starting to look silly with the favorable setup they're showing for the Atlantic. A few months to go, but definitely some 🚨
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#Ian
really is a messaging/preparation challenge for Florida. Storm moving parallel to a narrow Peninsula, slight deviations can make a huge difference in impacts. Plus the possibility it could weaken a lot if it's more north, but it's really hard to rely on that for preparation.
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It becomes increasingly clear that the surge forecasts for Laura were justified as survey teams reach some of the areas impacted by that Eastern eyewall.
Unsurvivable surge >15 feet drove water and mud nearly 2.5 feet deep into the 2nd floor bathroom. The SECOND floor.
@JeffLindner1
#HurricanLaura
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