Will McCreadie
@McCreadieWill
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Global Resilience @generalcatalyst - climate, defense and industrials | Prev @Lux_Capital
San Francisco, CA
Joined May 2019
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People don’t understand the difference between a million and a billion.
Unconventional way to grasp this:
1 million seconds ≈ 11 days
1 billion seconds ≈ 31 YEARS
ht
@APompliano
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@naval
In general:
You trust things created before you were 15.
You’re somewhat skeptical if it was built in years 15-45
If it’s created after you were 45, you’re likely to think it’s stupid or dangerous.
Applies to tech and culture.
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Takeaways from
@APompliano
’s podcast with Cramer.
1. Cramer’s relentless optimism is the key to his success. He’s had plenty of failures, but optimism ensures many shots on goal.
2. Pomp explaining BTC to someone with a legacy finance background is 👌.
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1/
47% of ALL active satellites in space are controlled by 4 companies.
35% are owned by SpaceX alone
Time for a 🛰🧵👇
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@micsolana
Great example of a scarcity and abundance dynamic. When most info is static, current, dynamic info was valuable. Now that most information is dynamic, immutable info and opinions are scarce and valuable.
Permanence has gone from feature -> bug -> feature
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@paulg
There’s going to be a competitive advantage in doing business as usual.
Everyone seems to want a snow day, shorter hours, more flexibility, and lower expectations.
Firms that focus on getting back to normal, putting the user first again, etc, should outperform here
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1/ On recent Real Vision,
@wolfejosh
makes a great point:
SPACs foster a deterioration of discipline.
Abundance of capital creates a sense of *scarcity* in the M&A landscape.
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@naval
Introduce a problem, supply a solution. This is business.
Introduce a problem, without a solution. This is news.
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@paulg
Tim Urban has a nice metaphor for this. You start out in a small stream, childhood. Everyone gets funneled into the river of adolescence, swept on mostly the same path, until college, where you’re in a lagoon of optionality (more freedom but less direction. Adulthood is the ocean
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@zebulgar
Lux Capital: What sucks, and how does this fix it?
Collaborative Fund: Is this good for me & good for the world?
SoftBank: Is this the most absurd way to torch $300 M?
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Few people on Twitter are having as much fun as
@APompliano
...intense positivity is refreshing
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@chamath
I really respect that you actually read them and followed through on this. It’s refreshing in a world where accountability is so rare.
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@paulg
Favorite stat from this era:
In 1989, based on comps, the land under Japan’s imperial palace was “worth” more than all the real estate in California COMBINED
Value is a fascinating psychological construct.
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@mckaywrigley
The science of longevity.
Healthspan hacks everyone can take (layers of abstraction over that science):
- exercise (strength and cardio)
- sleep
- limit sugar
- eat real food
- get uncomfortably hot and cold often
- skip breakfast occasionally
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@vcstarterkit
VC explaining fixed bedtime and the need to eat vegetables to child:
“those terms are standard”
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@patrick_oshag
Blood Meridian, Cormac McCarthy. He read 300 books to write it. It’s a dark, beautiful, and genius examination of evil.
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@APompliano
As long as you consider it in light of the old facts.
The easily swayed are not more intelligent than the stubborn.
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@patrick_oshag
The non-gaming uses of gaming engines are more interesting:
- immersive surgery training
- dramatic cellular bio lessons
- VR assisted architecture
- next level data visualizations
Major value to unlock by shrinking the gap between simulation and reality as
@wolfejosh
notes
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@patrick_oshag
Short:
@Navalmanack
Fiction: Blood Meridian - Cormac McCarthy
Sci: Lifespan - Sinclair
Business: Elon Musk - Vance
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@naval
Life is what happens when you’re busy planning for other things. Be present, but keep moving.
don’t be
1. depressed (living in the past) or
2. anxious (living in the future)
Take joy in everything, but don’t be complacent. That’s the theory anyway...
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@paulg
Similar: Germany mines coal with this Bagger 288. 315 ft high, 13,500 tons. Note the 90 ton bulldozer for scale in the left corner...
We need to approach decarbonization with the same intensity.
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@naval
Necessary to achieve any of these are:
1. time
2. effort
3. focus
Anything cool is hard.
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@micsolana
Creation is hard, criticism is easy. And that’s not even insightful criticism.
Really not sure what people get out of shitting on others’ work like this.
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Huge day for an important company.
In the wake of the Sandy Hook tragedy,
@bznotes
pledged to fight gun violence + helped form Evolv.
Almost a decade later, the world is safer because of this commitment to action.
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Early versions of Amazon, Apple, GoogleMaps, and New York Times websites.
You can see how some people missed how big the internet would be, even as late as the early 2000s.
Great things come from humble beginnings (images from
@VersionMuseum
)
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@naval
Curiosity is the path to getting over the hump in any subject, from running to cooking to piano or math...how far can I go with this?
“ What makes this interesting to the people who are great at it?” is a good question to ask.
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Hardware engineers deserve modern tools, and
@Nominal_io
is upstream of progress in everything from subsea drones to satellites.
So excited to partner with
@CameronLMcCord
,
@brycestrauss
,
@jrshoch
and the entire Nominal team!
Industrial resilience demands alignment of physical systems & digital breakthroughs. 🏭
Thrilled to lead
@Nominal_io
’s $20M Series A & welcome
@CameronLMcCord
,
@BryceStrauss
,
@jrshoch
, & team to the GC family!
By Paul,
@AlexaLiautaud
,
@McCreadieWill
↓
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All of
@EricJorgenson
’s Navalmanack is worth rereading each year...but if you could learn just one thing from it, my current pick is this:
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2/ One of the top 4 is incredible Lux portco Planet Labs, which helps people:
• track climate change + deforestation
• monitor crops
• guide nat. disaster response
• uncover human rights abuses + hidden Chinese missiles
More from
@wolfejosh
1/ "What It Looks Like From Space When Everything Stops"
Lux family co
@planetlabs
with STUNNING before + after
satellite photos...
Starting with Kaaba in Mecca...
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@naval
Social climbing is off putting, but the desire for status is a byproduct of evolution (safer in the group than on your own, safer at the top than st the bottom of a hierarchy).
It goes beyond obvious virtue signaling, often altruistic behavior is subconsciously status related.
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The most influential thinkers offer:
- concise, specific insights
- honesty
- humility
- data-driven predictions
@chamath
@wolfejosh
@profgalloway
@PeterZeihan
do this well
Together, these traits foster:
- credibility
- clarity
- audience loyalty
- differentiated views
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@mckaywrigley
@PeterAttiaMD
’s ketosis primer or
@waitbutwhy
’s Elon Musk series
Favorite public “long write”:
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@zebulgar
Real life: you bullied yourself in middle school and, doing some self reflection decided to schedule a catch up call with your subconscious
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3/ Here’s a detailed breakdown of the other large players in space.
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4/ People often think space is dominated by gov, but falling launch costs + rise of smallsats have changed the picture
Today, 71% of all active satellites are solely commercial.
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@zebulgar
Anything perceived as a secret path to a desired outcome is quickly discovered and the advantage is competed away.
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1. You can learn more in a dinner with
@bznotes
than in an entire semester of most classes.
2. The world needs more
@zareens_CA
Thanks BZ!
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The Lux-Gates portfolio is pretty stacked:
Kymeta (metamaterial-based mobile to satellite antenna)
Kallyope (using gut-brain axis to fight disease)
Evolv (next gen security)
Pivotal Commware (metamaterial-based communications + HBF)
Echodyne (metamaterial-based radar)
TECH enabling ART
If you enter
@MuseumModernArt
and many other iconic cultural institutions
You will pass thru
@EvolvTechnology
(backed by Lux + Bill Gates)
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@naval
Again, side product of evolution. The less you need, the more you can afford to give, the “fitter” you are in a Darwinian sense.
It’s Zahavi’s Handicap Theory
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@paulg
Potential scam form we’ll see in the future: someone creates a bot army shamelessly promoting an upstanding person.
As a form of extortion, the target would have to pay to prevent their social credibility from being eroded by the lame bots hyping them up
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Early versions of Amazon, Apple, GoogleMaps, and New York Times websites.
You can see how some people missed how big the internet would be, even as late as the early 2000s.
Great things come from humble beginnings (images from
@VersionMuseum
)
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@paulg
Scary story: WeWork SPACs from the grave with a new portfolio of Masa authored NFTs on its balance sheet after merging with Nikola, thunder rolls in the distance as the Reddit horde descends.
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@patrick_oshag
AMC hut-to-hut hiking in New Hampshire (low key, great views, adventure) -> nature + comfort
Stockholm (Vasa museum, island theme park, great history, ferry transport) -> strange, magical city
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@naval
People think original ideas are hard.
They’re actually easy, just go niche.
Original ideas that generalize well are harder.
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7/ Whole interview is great. Also touches on two major Lux focus areas:
1. A new foundational layer of scientific tools.
2. A new economic layer in space.
The future is bright.
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11/ All data is current through May 1st, 2021 (raw data is from the Union of Concerned Scientists)
Ownership % will shift month to month, but the point stands: satellite mega-constellations are a game changer.
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If you liked this, there are more original space data visualizations on the way. Follow along for updates!
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@paulg
Inspiration for v2, after you build the MVTree
…this one has a sauna, soaking tub, rain shower king bed, fireplace, and pizza oven.
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@hackerrdave
@justinhj
@paulg
And the companies that seek it have built a brand around it (Basecamp, Wordpress, etc).
Most companies are still asleep at the wheel here. Also, only a small percentage of people actually thrive remote in the LR...there’s an inertia to being at home
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@balajis
Good to look at nature as a model here.
Can you imagine if a forest was just a few giant trees? Cut one down and the whole ecosystem degrades.
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@paulg
Agreed. My 15 yo brother has a similar story: Strung together Shopify and two different on-demand t-shirt printers to ride Netflix hype making TV show themed shirts. On peak days he was doing $1,000 revenue/day at high margins
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@zebulgar
Imagine an off brand version of Twitter called Thunderdome...built entirely around debate. Top debates are ported into 1 v 1 clubhouse rooms, March madness bracket style tournament
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@micsolana
Related (in my limited experience):
Be uncommonly good at at least two normally unrelated things.
Much easier to add value through differentiation than brute force.
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Secrets to
@AtomLimbs
’s success building mind-controlled bionic limbs:
1. Confluence of tech (ML, small robotic actuators, 3D printing)
2. JHU research + $100 M in gov grants
3. Interdisciplinary founder
@eriktorenberg
’s podcast w/
@thetylerhayes
🦾
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5/ Just as int’g as the scale of the top 4 projects is their rollout SPEED
Planet Labs was the first of the top 4 to make it into space (2013)
Starlink + OneWeb didn’t launch their first satellites until *2019*
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Awesome list 👌
Most progress in society comes from opposing entropy in one of these ways:
7/ Whether that is
-producing art
-serving others
-treating patients
-teaching students
-promoting justice
-accelerating tech progress
-advancing cures + treatments
-educating or entertaining people
-empowering + inspiring others, reducing human suffering
Fierce focus on that..
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6/ There are a TOTAL of 4,084 active satellites in space.
Starlink hopes to build a constellation of 42,000.
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@paulg
@mckaywrigley
Love
@patrick_oshag
’s
learn -> create-> share
as the framework for personal & professional growth
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@paulg
“Son let me tell you the tale of Juicero, whose funding was broad and whose vision was narrow”
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@APompliano
Digital art isn’t worthless.
Value is about perceived utility.
The utility of this is a combination of:
a. Social signaling (display wealth and sophistication)
b. Ego validation (be part of history, exclusivity)
c. Aesthetic satisfaction
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@zebulgar
Sleep remains underrated.
Sleep < 6 hours for 1 week: you’re now insulin resistant.
Sleep < 6 hours on avg: you’re 70% more likely to get an athletic injury.
Sleep poorly for years: you’re more likely to develop Alzheimer’s, gain weight, have a heart attack, crash a car...
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@paulg
Related: When I was 7 I thought 80% seemed like a lot.
When I was 12 I thought 30% seemed like a lot.
At 17 5% seemed significant.
Now 2% seems like a lot.
What changed: Experience, math exposure, appreciation of scale.
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@chamath
Some other stats:
• 80% of all private European homes burning coal in are in Poland.
• 74% of the country’s electricity is coal-based.
• The country is home to 33 of Europe’s 50 most polluted cities.
This kind of asymmetry presents a major climate tech/policy opportunity
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@paulg
Austin feels too mainstream, regulatory climate in Miami is favorable.
My pick for the next “new valley”: Denver.
Inexpensive places to live nearby, great amenities, tons of land, huge airport, good weather and few competing VCs.
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8/ You can solve this by going lower, but the trade-off is that each sat can transmit to a smaller area on Earth.
Musk’s answer: more sats! (at far lower launch costs)
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1/ Excited to launch a “A Quick Look”, a blog I’m writing with
@bznotes
.
This “lab notebook” highlights lessons from the founders we meet, and our research in evolving fields.
Each post shares resources we’ve learned from, and raises new questions. Reach out w/ your answers!
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7/ Why so many?
Traditional satcomm used a few large, expensive sats 🛰 ($200 million +)
at high orbits to provide coverage to a large region.
BUT higher orbit -> higher data latency
Result: slow + expensive service
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@patrick_oshag
Dogecoin because it speaks to social dynamics and the power of Twitter to build audiences, manipulate markets, and redistribute influence (see Musk manipulation here)
Augur is another interesting one but haven’t seen it used at scale yet.
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9/
81% of satellites already live in low Earth orbit (LEO)...expect this to ⬆️ over time.
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@patrick_oshag
@ChipotleTweets
@zbfuss
@jspujji
This is a dream breakdown. Two of the best
@InvestLikeBest
guests in recent memory, bringing different perspectives on an awesome brand and business.
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@patrick_oshag
@AmericanExpress
Debt as a status symbol :)
Actually though, it’s the rewards program and how it offers differentiation, or the way they maintain high merchant fees in a crowded field.
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