"China is the pacing threat" - bipartisan U.S. policy going back to the first Trump Administration. I believe that *severely* understates the threat. China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are so connected, revisionist, and opportunistic, we need a new pacing threat. A 🧵... 1/10

Excellent haul from the used book store - including @aaronbateman22 ‘s fantastic book!

I think your article on SDI demonstrates otherwise. The Soviets paused their modernization programs for a couple years as they tried to figure out what SDI would become. They felt no panicked need to increase their offensive forces and were content with countermeasures. Not

…. Golden Dome can’t be “destabilizing” if it is “unrealistic.” Gotta pick one.

Awfully bold to say that Japan does not know what is good for its own security - especially on deterrence… It may not even be stationing U.S. weapons, just transiting. Japan has restrained itself for decades on this issue - and Chinese restraint is not a thing right now.

See @RealBobPeters @BalzerKyle and my article on the topic! 2/2

I just saw a nuclear weapons take I have never seen before (and that is saying something!) Any state that flight tests a nuclear delivery system is furthering the "arms race." If the term had not lost all meaning before (see below), it sure has lost all meaning now. 1/2

President Eisenhower on the first proclamation of Veterans Day:

Missile defense can protect and/or provide enough time for mobile forces (like SSBNs and bombers) to disperse - or, if not, limit damage. It can also defend critical NC3 nodes. All in the service of aiding secure second strike survivability.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said today that the world is in a "new nuclear age." In my latest, I make the case that the US should lead NATO into a new era of nuclear competition. https://t.co/XSuHevhQwV

It is simply not true that US missile defense is a 50/50 coin flip (Wolfsthal says without evidence it is even worse). Last three tests were against countermeasures and successful. Defense outlets must be better at requiring authors to cite credible evidence for such claims.

Happy Reformation Day everyone.

One reason why actual nuclear policy analysts have such trouble taking this movie seriously. How do you retaliate against… an unknown source? To what end?

I should also add that the “$500 billion” for strategic missile defense since Reagan is factually untrue - laughably. Even if you add MDA annual budget plus all its predecessors AND count all their $$$ in *regional* MD (the lion’s share) - you get a little over $200 billion.

It is difficult to express to people outside nuclear strategy fields just how incredibly stilted this movie is - the director said as much, it’s for disarmament. Builds the scenario to fit.

I wonder if the three star general the director used was the same three star who Annie Jacobsen used. It would go a long way in explaining why two self-serious works came out so flawed. Also, hang this conclusion in the Louvre.

China clearly thinks it’s minimum deterrence threats would not be credible for the future - so it built up its nuclear arsenal. But nuclear cut proponents want to move the U.S. toward minimum deterrence threats against a China moving away from that paradigm. Baffling.

Petition to adopt old flag designs that go way harder than current flags. Look at the Baltic area flag.

Officially entered the stage of life where the music I listened to growing up is called “classic rock” on the radio.

3 year old son throws a bouncy ball at the TV Me: “Did you just throw a ball at the TV?!?” Son: *looks around* Son: “Well… somebody did… hmm…”

Take some time to contemplate how 9/11 felt through the eyes of a mother in the towers, a father as a firefighter, a child who lost her parents, an airplane passenger wondering what’s next, the President who must act, those called to serve. We remember. 🇺🇸