Manifold
@ManifoldMarkets
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Bet on everything. Get accurate real-time odds on AI, politics, news, and more.
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Joined December 2021
This is a certified bad sign for a private bet at 1:1 odds
$10'000 Xmas wager on the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize: CEO David Budden of AI Startup PingYou seems to be onto something:
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Lightcone Infrastructure's 2026 fundraiser is live! We build beautiful things for truth-seeking and world-saving. We run LessWrong, Lighthaven, Inkhaven, designed AI-2027, and so many more things. All for the price of less than one OpenAI staff engineer ($2M/yr). More in 🧵.
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My internet friend @Bayesian0_0 did something shameful so my other internet friend Quroe ( https://t.co/yRcr95aI33) created an index and then bottled the shame and mailed it to me once I acquired a full share. Normal day on @ManifoldMarkets.
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The Game Awards are starting! Watch along on Manifold and see dozens of live questions update in realtime.
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The Game Awards are about to start! Manifold is streaming it live with dozens of questions for live prediction. Earn internet points and bragging rights!
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I wrote for Above the Fold @ManifoldMarkets on the drama around the TIME Person of the Year market resolutions:
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Important questions that could never be answered on a real money prediction market, every day on Manifold
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Manifold means any scientist in the world can make a market on whether or not their paper will replicate!
I wish I could create a prediction market after posting a preprint and then taking it through all the stages of review at @Nature and posting reviews, rebuttals, etc, until out for review/acceptance/rejection and see how the market responds.
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This is wild lol @ManifoldMarkets (honestly this is great - gives access to bet on us to all the investors who missed out!) https://t.co/boPbrkUCi4
manifold.markets
41% chance. Dome is an YC-funded (Fall 25) startup creating a unified prediction markets API. This is an experimental market format for predicting outcomes of interesting startups I'll probably...
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at Manifold we refer to opus 4.5 as employee of the month
in korea they refer to opus 4.5 as oppa
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How is AI detection supposed to exist if you can't even detect when I steal tweets
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Funny how when I'm betting on high probability events on Manifold, I'm exhibiting rare staistical discipline, and when I bet on low probability events, I'm showcasing my nuanced, alpha-seeking contrarian genius. (pic unrelated)
funny how when i rate something lower than my friends on letterboxd, i’m exhibiting a rare, higher level discernment, and when i rate something higher, i’m demonstrating a more textured, holistic appreciation than most;
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DeepSeek-V3.2 -- likely to disrupt the rankings? DeepSeek only has a 2% chance to be the end of year leader
manifold.markets
Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category,...
🚀 Launching DeepSeek-V3.2 & DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale — Reasoning-first models built for agents! 🔹 DeepSeek-V3.2: Official successor to V3.2-Exp. Now live on App, Web & API. 🔹 DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale: Pushing the boundaries of reasoning capabilities. API-only for now. 📄 Tech
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