Manifold
@ManifoldMarkets
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Bet on everything. Get accurate real-time odds on AI, politics, news, and more.
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Joined December 2021
As "the US Supreme Court hears one of the most consequential economic cases in decades", uncertainty looms regarding their decision
Through August, the government collected around $90 billion from the sweeping global tariffs that the Supreme Court is now considering
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See the future of New York City - What will Mamdani actually do? Many proposed policies are not so likely. Add your own answers for live betting:
manifold.markets
Resolves according to my personal opinion on whether each measure has been implemented, I will not trade in this market All options N/A if someone else becomes mayor Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI...
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Traders are welcome to add their own answers btw https://t.co/ipEEo9pIhU
manifold.markets
Add any NYC mayor election props. Time zone is EST
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They're calling it the Mamdani of election day prediction market newsletter posts https://t.co/B7CxJnnLS9
news.manifold.markets
Above the Fold covers an off-year election day
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The best projects are those with betting odds
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Well done, Mr. President! An amazingly hype finish to an all-too-specific over/under. Kudos to the creator who picked such a good line. This is where user made markets shine. Go and create your own lines for next month! https://t.co/LJb5iY2FzD
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Read about how markets reacted to OpenAI's restructuring in this week's newsletter.
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Who would have thought that these animations, and these animations alone, would add $150B to Google's market cap. Nothing else important happened today, right?
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The provisions are a fascinating glimpse into OpenAI and Microsoft's bets about the future of AI and AGI. So much potential for reading between the lines. I'm not sure what to make of these:
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It has been a wild ride, but I hope Sora comes out on top! Sincerely, a YES bag holder
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OpenAI is also reportedly planning on releasing a generative music tool. Still no word on AI-powered smell-o-vision, though
It looks like AI music is following the same path as AI text: 1) Appears to have passed the Turing Test, people are only 50/50 in identifying older Suno vs. human songs (but 60/40 when two songs are the same genre) 2) Same fast development, new models are getting better quickly.
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We'll let you know if He buys the odds way up. Maybe after some of those superbabies are born...
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