Manifold
@ManifoldMarkets
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The largest prediction market platform. Bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Create your own play-money market. Not crypto.
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Joined December 2021
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Pinned Tweet
Manifest 2024 is almost here!
You will miss out if you don't order your tickets now.
Events start from May 31st with LessOnline and Summer Camp leading up to Manifest.
Talks subject to change.
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Bet on OpenAI's spring update live in 1 hour on Manifold TV.
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What shirt is
@Polymarket
going to bring to Manifest this year?
Another of
@robinhanson
or will it be someone else?
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Manifold Retweeted
🚀 How Many
@SpaceX
Launches Will Occur During May 2024?
Predict On
@ManifoldMarkets
#PredictionMarket
#Launch
#Falcon
#Starship
@elonmusk
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having Tim sing this for us was like a bit like having Picasso paint our office walls
This soundtrack is honestly incredible; the most SF thing ever. 😂 I was wondering what
@MasterTimBlais
was up to, but this explains.
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Manifold Retweeted
I can’t make it this year bc I’ll be out of town, but Manifold was great last year and I recommend going if you like thinking about predicting the future and you can make it.
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Manifold Retweeted
I sent a letter with my colleagues to
@CFTCbehnam
regarding CTFC's proposed rule on event contracts. They should thoroughly consider stakeholder feedback and the impact their decisions have on markets. I look forward to engaging further as CFTC considers their proposed rule.
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Manifold Retweeted
Market: Will OpenAI *announce* a search competitor to Google / Perplexity by May 17, 2024? (URL: )
Change: 49.6% down
From: 70.5% to 20.8%
Duration: 1 hour
0
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.
@RepMTG
has triggered a vote to remove speaker Mike Johnson. Democrats are expected (95%) to support Johnson and avert further chaos in Congress.
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Manifold Retweeted
Join me in Berkeley for Less Online, with
@slatestarcodex
,
@ESYudkowsky
,
@TheZvi
,
@KatjaGrace
,
@cremieuxrecueil
,
@s_r_constantin
, and more! It's a week-long writer's retreat where we're gonna hang out and talk about nerd shit. There's still a few tickets left, link below
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New market from
@TheZvi
, will self-driving vehicles impact the BLS's growing driver employment projections?
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I don't know how to feel about these types of markets.
"Will Taylor Swift take 100 private jet flights before One Piece ends?"
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