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🚨 NEW | Poll points to SNP Holyrood minority 🟡 SNP – 61 seats (-3) ➡️ REF – 22 seats (+22) 🔴 LAB – 18 seats (-4) 🔵 CON – 10 seats (-21) 🟢 GRN – 9 seats (+1) 🟠 LD – 9 seats (+5) Estimate based on @Survation poll, 22 Sep-14 Oct

@FindoutnowUK *Sorry, date of this poll was 24 October, typo

Vote shares: -- FPTP -- 🟡 SNP – 35% (-13) 🔴 LAB – 17% (-5) ➡️ REF – 16% (new) 🟢 GRN – 9% (+8) 🟠 LD – 10% (+3) 🔵 CON – 8% (-14) -- PR -- 🟡 SNP – 21% (-19) ➡️ REF – 16% (+16) 🟢 GRN – 16% (+8) 🔴 LAB – 15% (-3) 🔵 CON – 11% (-12) 🟠 LD – 10% (+5) Via @FindoutnowUK, 14 Oct

🚨 NEW | Poll points to SNP Holyrood MAJORITY 🟡 SNP – 66 seats (+2) ➡️ REF – 16 seats (+16) 🟢 GRN – 15 seats (+7) 🔴 LAB – 14 seats (-8) 🟠 LD – 9 seats (+5) 🔵 CON – 9 seats (-22) My estimate based on @FindoutnowUK poll, 14 Oct

🔴 Catherine Connolly backed by: Sinn Féin (left) Labour (centre-left), Social Democrats (centre-left), People Before Profit (far left), Greens (centre-left), Solidarity (far left) 🔵 Heather Humphreys - Fine Gael (centre-right) 🟢 Jim Gavin - Fianna Fáil (centre-right)

🚨 NEW | Left-winger Catherine Connolly WINS election for President of Ireland* in a landslide. 🔴 Connolly (IND) – 63.4% 🔵 Humphreys (FG) – 29.5% 🟢 Gavin (FF) – 7.1% *Note: President of Ireland is the head of state but is NOT the head of government like in US/France etc.

🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 10pts ➡️ REF – 30% (-2) 🔴 LAB – 20% (-2) 🔵 CON – 18% (-) 🟠 LD – 12% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 12% (+2) Via @OpiniumResearch, 22-24 Oct (+/- vs 8-10 Oct)

My comrade @edenbound_ has launched a gofundme for FFS (facial feminisation surgery). Support trans people 🏳️‍⚧️ https://t.co/pSW5D0cS2V

https://t.co/Ir9zrHvPlA

This means that the modeling now has a built-in recency bias - if a bunch of polls were conducted this month in e.g. Scotland, the model gives overwhelming (99%+) weight to those polls. If no polls have been conducted in e.g. London for 6 months, the balance is more like 50-50

This features my new way of dealing with London/Wales/Scotland polling, where I weight the result from my model at 50% and give each poll a weight based on how recently the poll was conducted (reducing the weight by 10% each month).

🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 15pts ➡️ REF – 32% (-) 🔵 CON – 17% (-) 🔴 LAB – 16% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 15% (-) 🟠 LD – 12% (-) Via @FindoutnowUK, 22 Oct (+/- vs 15 Oct)

@techneUK Greens would win 11 seats: 🟢Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven 🟢Brighton Pavilion 🟢Bristol Central 🟢Bristol East 🟢Bristol South 🟢Huddersfield 🟢Leeds Central and Headingley 🟢Manchester Rusholme 🟢North Herefordshire 🟢Sheffield Central 🟢Waveney Valley They would be within

Estimated seat totals: ➡️ REF – 378 (+373) 🟠 LD – 88 (+16) 🔴 LAB – 59 (-352) 🟡 SNP – 46 (+37) 🔵 CON – 27 (-94) 🟢 GRN – 11 (+7) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLAID – 7 (+3) Based on @TechneUK poll, 24 Oct (+/- vs GE2024)

🚨 BREAKING | Labour plunge to 19% ➡️ REF – 29% (-1) 🔴 LAB – 19% (-1) 🔵 CON – 18% (-1) 🟠 LD – 16% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 12% (+3) Via @TechneUK, 24 Oct (+/- vs 17-18 Sep)

Summary --2021 election-- 🔴 LAB – 46% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLAID – 28% 🔵 CON – 17% ➡️ REF – 2% --2025 by-election-- 🔴 LAB – 11% (-35) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLAID – 47% (+19) 🔵 CON – 2% (-15) ➡️ REF – 36% (+34) Both major parties got slaughtered.

Caerphilly by-election broke several records: 🔴 First time Labour has lost in 115 years 🔴 Worst-ever Labour result 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Best-ever Plaid Cymru result 🔵 Worst-ever Tory result ➡️ Highest Reform % in a Welsh FPTP seat

Composition of the Senedd after by-election: 🔴 LAB – 29 (-1) 🔵 CON – 14 (-) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLAID – 13 (+1) ⚪️ IND – 2 (-) 🟠 LD – 1 (-) ➡️ REF – 1 (-) Labour no longer has a working majority.

🚨 NEW | Plaid Cymru GAIN Caerphilly 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLAID – 47% (+19) ➡️ REF – 36% (+34) 🔴 LAB – 11% (-35) 🔵 CON – 2% (-15) 🟢 GRN – 2% (+2) 🟠 LD – 2% (-1) +/- vs 2021 Senedd election

Zack Polanski has a net favourability of +42 amongst people who voted Green in the 2024 election