Kevin Green (KG), MSDA
@KGBULLANDBEAR
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Following
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Media
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Sr. Markets Correspondent @SchwabNetwork . @Benzinga contributor. Opinions are my own. RT or Follow =\= endorsement. Disc:
Denver, CO
Joined November 2021
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#EURo2024
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@unusual_whales
This is not the Fed's fault. Bad risk management on $SIVB. Financial institutions hedge these risk on a daily basis and MM would've had no issues with writing a contract while taking a nice bp profit. Call it what it is...greed.
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11 handle $VIX didn't hold? 🤣
Copper pulled back as expected along with silver. Vacation pt 2. Disney tomorrow!
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I'll be out on vacation for the next couple of weeks, so I won't be publishing weekly preps or other commentary. For headline CPI, I'm looking for 0.44% or higher for the print. I hope you all have prosperous trades. ✌️
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Not tonight, Moody's. The U.S. credit outlook is a Sunday night problem.
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I'm excited to announce that I will be one of the keynote speakers at this year's Option Pit Summit (
@OptionPit
), scheduled for July 22nd to July 24th at the
@CBOE
in Chicago. Check out the lineup of great speakers and activities throughout the event.
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Passed 3k followers today. Thank you all for the support.
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🤣 Post & Delete blocked me for some reason. I didn't even say anything. But what I will say is if you follow someone that has conviction and the data to support a thesis and it doesn't work out, it's OK, people will respect that. Lord knows I've had many misses.
#Few
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"Byproducts of oil like gasoline, which has seen over a 20% increase since the end of June, or heating oil, which has seen a 36% increase in the same timeframe, are experiencing a shortage in supply that a rapid change in the refining mix cannot fix."🔥
Subscribe to the Market
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Brought home some football season groceries today. What a wild day on the water.
#inflationhack
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❗️ OK, I've held my tongue on this statement from Powell long enough, and I have to just call out how crazy this thesis is and how it is a part of the framework of monetary policy.
Powell: "Also, let me mention inflation expectations, which, in our framework and in the thinking
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$GLD $SLV A quick discussion on the gold and silver market structure, highlighting how movements on the surface appear similar, yet when reviewing positioning, two distinct narratives are emerging. Also, I misspoke, you want to look at the green line on the chart for net
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My son grew these on his own. The carrots aren't fully ready to harvest, but two out of the four is bullish, in my opinion. Ag markets better watch out lol.
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I'm speculating, but I feel like Mark Cuban
@mcuban
is preparing for a presidential bid. Just sayin...
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5k followers! Thank you for supporting the content. I really do appreciate you!
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Liquidity has returned, but trading volume remains low. Remember that volume and liquidity are not the same. Market makers are ready based on the
#ES_F
order book depth, but the market has yet to show a strong desire to ramp up trading activity. Positive for bulls.
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Published a Market Prep for the Week note that includes:
-A brief summary of the current market landscape
-KG’s Focus for the Week (Oil, $SLV, Diesel/Heating Oil)
-Treasury Auction Reference
-Economic Calendar
-Sector ETF Fund Flows
-Economic Data Reference
Bookmark,
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Before you jump to conclusions, just wait. Tonight is not the night to worry about a trade plan. Just do your due diligence and get information from both sides. Pray that things deescalate. There is more going on behind the scenes than we will ever know.
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Tough week for some and a great week for others in the market. Many different themes at play, and some strong correlations have broken down. No matter how you performed, it's the weekend! Time to chill, regroup, and enjoy family and friends because we're back at it on Monday!
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Got a little fishing competition going on right now. Little does he know I'll cook his a** too. 🤣
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PPI y/y: 1.6% vs 1.1% est
PPI m/m: 0.6% vs 0.3% est
Core PPI y/y: 2.0% vs 1.9% est
Core PPI m/m: 0.3% vs 0.2% est
Initial Jobless claims: 209k vs 218k est
Continuing claims 1.811M vs. 1.9M est
Retail Sales m/m: 0.6% vs 0.8% est
Core Retail sales 0.3% vs 0.5% m/m
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Before people freak out, just remember $JPM was trading 2x tangible book value going into the earnings announcement, which is already ridiculously overvalued.
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FED'S KASHKARI: MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE STAY PUT FOR EXTENDED PERIOD ON RATES.
Also KASHKARI: WE WOULD HIKE RATES IF NEEDED.
And….KASHKARI: IF DISINFLATION COMES AGAIN, OR WE SAW MARKED WEAKENING IN JOB MARKET THAT MIGHT LEAD TO RATE CUTS.
Nothing of substance whatsoever.
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When your child is on fall break and thinks he is a comedian by making funny faces. I hope you all have a great Thanksgiving. It's my favorite holiday by far. Enjoy family, friends, or just kick back by yourself. See you all Monday.
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I thought silver and copper would cool off from a technical standpoint before pushing higher, and both said, "Hold my beer." 😄
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Thank a farmer or rancher.
Energy is moving higher, and metals are catching a bid. What about grains?
The USDA Prospective Plantings Report will be published on March 28th and will be the deciding factor for grain prices this year.
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First game of the 1st grade bball season, and my team dominated.
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The consumer is strong dude chill. 🤣
#jokes
A lot of companies are telling us that the bottom 50% of consumers are struggling this earnings season
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Ice fishing season kicks off tomorrow. The Mountain House breakfast skillet and Chili Mac are the best btw.
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Perspective is everything. Yesterday, the 50-week moving average moved over the 100-week moving average. An event that has happened only 6 times in the last 33 years.
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Please don't 🤣
NEWS: Boeing says it is aiming to bring flying cars to Asia by 2030.
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Yesterday's short covering rally is seeing some follow-through in early trading. The 2-year Treasury auction should be the focal point for traders today, as it can set the tone for the entire yield curve.
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Powell can fix inflation in a heartbeat tomorrow in swift fashion. This is his goldilocks do over from October of last year.
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Have a great weekend, everyone! Stay safe and enjoy your time away from the markets. The world is facing challenges right now. Try to make a positive impact on someone's day.
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Someone was picking off the 180/165 bear put spread on $SNOW today before earnings for $0.18. Right now, that spread is 5 bucks in the money. One big block all in was $46,944, now going for $1.3M. Someone always knows.
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❗️
Heating oil: Blue
CPI: Red
First chart: Heating oil month-over-month % change vs CPI m/m % change. Heating oil leads CPI. Chart does not include this week's price advance(4%).
Second chart: Heating oil year-over-year % vs CPI y/y % change. Check that bottom formation.
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Looks like a Call of Duty & charts type of weekend.
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Have a great weekend, everyone. I appreciate you.
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OPEC+ extends cuts through the rest of 2024. Oil may catch a bid, but this was somewhat expected by energy analyst.
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Published a Market Prep for the Week note that includes:
-A brief summary of the current market landscape
-KG’s Focus for the Week ( $DXY, $RTX, Brent/WTI spread)
-Treasury Auction Reference
-Economic Calendar
-Sector ETF Fund Flows
-Economic Data Reference
Bookmark,
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If confirmed, we will see this spread to the Persian Gulf. This is the oil catalyst I've been speaking about since Dec 8th. Note tomorrow.
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No one has asked this question yet, but for consumer staple companies that cater to lower-income consumers: If their core customer base is feeling stress and lowering purchasing volume, then where are they shopping? That's the scariest part of this whole situation.
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Even before the planting season officially kicks off, U.S. farmers and ranchers are already facing an uphill battle on many fronts. Before glossing over this piece, since it's not as appealing as discussing A.I. or the unquantifiable tangible market for Nvidia ( $NVDA ), it's
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Market Prep for the week will drop after the market opens. Diesel/heating oil, a key indicator, just signaled a major warning. Either diesel short-sellers are offsides or the broader economy may get ugly. Heating Oil vs $SPX. The 2014 divergence is when OPEC+ tried to kill the
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Grains are moving higher. Everyone is underestimating China when it comes to commodity demand.
==BREAKING== China's activity data comes in stronger than expected: Jan-Feb FAI +4.2% vs +3.2% est, Industrial output +7% vs +5% est, but Retail sales in Feb rose just 0.03% m/m.
@Sam_Vadas
@willkoulouris
#China
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Powell's comments yesterday were less hawkish than the market expected, and we are finally seeing a kickoff to the wind-down of QT starting in June. Inflationary data points continue to come in hot, but job data has been resilient so far. $AAPL earnings today.
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POWELL: IT IS STILL LIKELY IN MOST PEOPLE'S VIEW THAT WE WILL HAVE RATE CUTS THIS YEAR, BUT DEPENDS ON DATA
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I'm back to talking about markets tomorrow, and boy, do I have an EV story to tell. The existing infrastructure is enough of a deterrent to turn away the most ardent "green revolution" enthusiasts. Enough with the apps!
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I have a few bookmarks for some of these macro Fintwit experts on inflation who have posted these wild Y/Y charts and extrapolated trends without understanding the underlying factors. I would love to repost them, but we've all taken L's from time to time. All that "doomer" and
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@MarioNawfal
I think they need to clarify. Derivatives are created with two parties. You are forgetting that someone else is on the other side of the trade. It's not one sideded positioning.
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30 year treasury auction results
Offering Size: $25B
High Yield: 4.635%
Bid-to-cover 2.41 vs 2.37 previous
Dealer Takedown 15.36%: vs 17.34% previous
Strong auction
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Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you all!
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Published a Market Prep for the Week note that includes:
-A brief summary of the current market landscape
-Economic Calendar
-Treasury Auction Reference Guide to compare this week's auction results with last month's
-Sector ETF Fund Flows
-Economic Data Reference
Please share
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Never forget the fallen. Thank you for your service.
CENTCOM Status Update on Missing U.S. Navy Seals
We regret to announce that after a 10-day exhaustive search, our two missing U.S. Navy SEALs have not been located and their status has been changed to deceased. The search and rescue operation for the two Navy SEALs reported
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Published a Market Prep for the Week note that includes:
-A brief summary of the current market landscape
-KG’s Focus for the Week ( $GLD, Grains, Water Utilities $PHO)
-Economic Calendar
-Sector ETF Fund Flows
-Economic Data Reference
Bookmark, share, and follow.
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Analysts have no clue what CPI will be this week. The comps for m/m estimates vs y/y are not adding up after the seasonal adjustments and even with the non-adjusted comp. More to come on Monday. Still digging into the numbers.
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Understand the thesis for a weaker U.S. dollar post Bank of Canada and ECB cuts is completely uphill, and I suspect that the $DXY may advance tomorrow marginally but may fade over the next several sessions. Relative strength in commodities on that back of that may signal
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Slabs...
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Notable companies reporting earnings next and their +/- implied move:
$WMT- 3.0%
$HD- 4.5%
$COIN- 18.5% 👀
$PANW- 7.6%
$TJX- 5.0%
$BIDU- 7.0%
$NVDA- 7.9%
$TDOC- 15.7%
$LCID- 15.5%
$ETSY- 10.7%
$BABA- 6.1%
$MRNA- 7.8%
$SQ- 10.6%
$CVNA- 26.3% 👀
$EOG-4.8%
Watch
@TDANetwork
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Remember the fallen, as heroes from all backgrounds come together to defend this great nation.
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❗️One of the most important charts to note: Demand destruction in energy seen in real-time for the U.S. consumer. The Fed may have met its second objective as housing decelerates at a rapid pace. Crude/Gasoline 1:1 spread (non-traditional) vs $TNX.
Note tomorrow. Share & follow.
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We're taking a look at $SPX options flows today on Market On Close, focusing on market maker exposure levels to monitor as we approach the close and for the rest of the week. If you like the flow post, you'll love this segment. Tune in at 3 PM ET on the
@SchwabNetwork
.
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I'll be joining
@Bob_Iaccino
and
@jimiuorio
at 4 PM ET to discuss a wide range of topics. Check out the link below and set a reminder.
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The weekly chart is showing a potential bull trap. Testing the 200-week SMA which it has failed several times. Prices advancing with yields moving higher is constructive though. If it can break that level this chart does look constructive. Key focus for me this week. $XLU
Would you please ellaborate. Is the advancing yields the bull trap ?🪤
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