Josh Man
@JoshMandell6
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Salomon Brothers 1990-98 Bond Portfolio Analysis Government Desk - Long Bond Trader Derivatives - Short-Dated Options Trading (Head) Caxton Ass Hedge Fund
Joined January 2021
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So, yeah I spent 20+ years on Wall Street but never saw anything like this market you kids have here. I just threw 48K into a sub-account last night and took a shot at two chains hosted by two gents I find to be incredibly intelligent and this? Is it really this easy?
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Cathie Wood states that the timeline projections originally forecasted by their
#bitcoin
models must adjust, moving forward in time due to ETF approval, not originally foresen as a fait acommpli. Prices, she suggested, could now be assumed to double at any point on the…
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@DaPlaneBoss
Examine market depth and trail your stops wisely. That is the lesson I have given myself. MUYOL == Make Up Your Own Lessons
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@efebitcoin
Don't be so sure of yourself, punk a$$ b!tch ...
Examine market depth and trail your stops wisely. That is the lesson I have given myself. MUYOL == Make Up Your Own Lessons
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If you buy ETF shares fresh from the issuer, you must wait 30 days before they can be placed in a margin account. Day one of the advent of Spot
#Bitcoin
ETFs arrived and the only fund with actual coins was GBTC. The thing about ETFs is that they invite short sellers to come out…
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at 68,350 for BTC, MSTR will start Gamma squeezing and I would not be surprised to see a quick move up 1,000 points on BTC to 69,350 at that point ...
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1st time chiming in on this: It's possible that we relative-value guys have a hard time pulling the trigger on things we find "overvalued" ... they were just books on the internet, weren't they?
Might it be the case that $MSTR is to
#Bitcoin
what $AMZN was to the internet? 🤷♂️
Amazon went public in May 1997 at a spit adjusted price of 9 cents. 14 Years later, it was trading at $11. Up 120x. It seemed "expensive" and maybe even "overvalued". Over the next 14 years it went up to $178. Up another 16x.
Bitcoin also started trading in 2010 for 10 cents. 14…
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@BritishHodl
I have always liked that valuation cuz the code allows for the smallest unit of divisibility to be one 100 millionth of a BTC & the USD's smallest unit is one Cent. On the day BTC hits $1mm per coin, those two numbers shall meet as 1 Sat = 1 Cent. Writing, meet the wall!
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GBTC holders were given certain assurances by Grayscale, most importantly that their high fees would abate after ETF conversion. It was the holders of GBTC who paid the legal fees to begin with.
@dotkrueger
@BritishHodl
@PeggyGrennan
@Sonnenshein
@William87963180
$GBTC $BTC
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@dotkrueger
Secret Blackrock research finds that the 60-40 equity-bond portfolio should start with 85%
#Bitcoin
and allocate the remaining 15% to the 60-40 equity-bond mix. (Not for public distribution)
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@BritishHodl
Let us celebrate the Saylor man's moves with a toast. I thought that the new ETFs would eclipse him ... but he got ahead of the game and is letting the concomitant rally in BTC slingshot MicroStrategy around the planet on a course for the moon. Hat's off to you
@saylor
!
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@FullTimeBitcoin
@FP21M
@Z06Z07
BINGO ... plus they get their coins all in one chunk contemporaneous with their daily demand. Mainly this is a price suppression technique. Now that I have finally said it aloud, let's see if anyone proves otherwise.
@EricBalchunas
??
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Recall the concept called "operational shorting"? If all of this has been, as I continue to suggest, a steady shorting of GBTC shares to buy IBIT (& other New 9) ETFs designed to artificially extract coins from one and move them to another, then a high fee at GBTC would serve to…
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@dotkrueger
@dotkrueger
I dropped $100K of premium for these puppies exactly three weeks ago. This is my fourth swing for the fences and I've been lucky enough to 10x each $100k bet. May the Force be with you sir YODL! This one is looking like 15x with a few days to gooooooooo $MSTR…
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@dotkrueger
so funny you said that --- this was my first purcase. Bought four BTC over the period of a week and never looked at it again until my ex took half. So I took my 2btc and sold them in January 23 to buy GBTC at 45% discount ... so the ETFs basically gave me back my other two btc
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This coinbase crash feels eeriy like disabling the "BUY" button on Robinhood. $COIN are you in the tank with them or are you just inept?
#Bitcoin
@dotkrueger
@PunterJeff
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I never called it publicly but, I must admit, I thought we might get the God candle on Easter Sunday. Seemed appropriate. Anyway, back to the chocolate rabbit hole.
#Bitcoin
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May I remind you that just last Friday morn, MSTR traded $1,999.99 in the pre-open and then that report from Kerrington Capital hit the airwaves shortly after. Act of desperation? Now, MSTR is $300 points off that price just six days later and the only news has been that they…
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@PennybagsCX
I think we might have identified the culprit. The FTX bankruptcy trustee would have been smart to await ETF approval so that they had a source of liquidity. Lying in the weeds would now be BlackRock and perhaps the other new entrants, fully aware that there would be a steady…
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For what it is worth, I think that Coinbase is being attacked from the outside. I believe it is not an accident, but rather a purposeful attack using a technique of putting bids and offers in and out so quickly that it freezes up their system. It is malicious, but not…
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This = true. But for those few willing to hold the hot potato for a bit, $MSTR can be traded to gather USD faster than $BTC in an uptrade. Use calls to cash out weekly or monthly, turn USD profits into more
#Bitcoin
and add to the the self-custody wallet.
@saylor
is helping us.…
@Futur3_Th1nk3r
@saylor
From a traditional investment standpoint, $MSTR is the hands-down winner, but there’s simply no way to compare MicroStrategy stock with self-custodied
#Bitcoin
. MSTR can be easily seized by the powers that be, whereas someone with self-custodied Bitcoin has plausible deniability.
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Gosh Fred, did I get you THAT bullish on $MSTR this morning? We OGs gotta leave some grub for the others to snack on. I know you didn't want to miss the "Amazon of monetary policy", biggest trade of our lives, but 20% in one day is kinda pouring it on heavy.
This GBTC thing is just noise and it’s close to being over.
We have no idea of how much GBTC selling is just movement into actual BTC. The Gemini stuff is supposed to be in kind.
It’s messing up the accounting and spooking some people out. Meanwhile we are just beginning.…
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Somebody got hit on a boatload of GBTC today, which will lead to a heavy market for BTC .... and what does a dealer who gets hit on GBTC do to hedge? He sells MSTR, figuring that there's going to be a large sell off in BTC Monday or Tuesday (✔️) and that MSTR will underperform…
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@tomyoungjr
My opinion: The price of
#Bitcoin
has been surpressed to buy time for the artifical extraction of Grayscale shares
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I don't care what anyone says .... I see signs that we are running low on coins throughout the system. There will be one more reprieve on Monday but the shorts better cover then!!
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@BritishHodl
Works both ways though unless we are straight up every day. Any downturn and they are suddenly long and getting longer and that's why MSTR is such a volatile beast
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I love MichaelStrategy too by the way.
It's below 1170, where I used to live.
I could buy it cheaper a piggie might say.
But I'm buying here, two sh!ts don't I give.
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Microstrategy : More squeezeable than Charmin
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@thomas_fahrer
You are right, because there is no such thing as zero in crypto. (Luna still trades?) In ClassFi, we have bankruptcy; so they actually go to ZERO, unlike radioactive decay which is asymptotic. The USD will go to zero one day, just like the confederate dollar. Thomas, u do…
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F**k! This opening is going to be epic!
$BTC
$MSTR
#Bitcoin
@PunterJeff
@dotkrueger
@LawrenceLepard
@LynAldenContact
@AlexOttaBTC
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The Princess Bride (5/12) Movie CLIP - The Battle of Wits (1987) HD via
@YouTube
Some serious game theory going on here today;
@PunterJeff
@PrestonPysh
@BenWerkman
@saylor
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Considering that Stock prices are forward looking, $MSTR could reasonably trade at 138k/63k (63k being the current price for $BTC) times your 2.36 multiple of spot
#Bitcoin
. That's 5.17x ... let's call if 5x ... that's close enough for government work. Almost close enough for…
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@dognonymousanon
Hey dog. See below ... is it ok to be short and cover? Trading short against your long-term view and pressing are two of the hardest things 2 do. So I don't expect you to understand. Liquidated? See the TP there? Stands for TAKE PROFIT not TAKE SHIT
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@WOLF_Financial
Anyway, I will boil it down to this ... Most people lose money because they don't follow the carpenter's first rule (Measure Twice and Cut Once) and then they Cost Trade, which is what makes the TA world go 'round.
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So here is something they don't teach in B-School which I learned during a really weak bond auction many years ago. It was the first time that I had used the pit for directional liquidity. Prior to that, I did basis trades and hedging ... on this day, however, we sold so hard…
@Giovann35084111
@LawrenceLepard
i agree with "selling a bit"...the danger is using leverage with these things.
you don't want to interpret it as "can't go below 1 standard deviation". Anything is possible, even if it hasn't so far
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If you can be trusted to follow my lead
I have 20MM SATs if that's what you need
It's easier to start with a friend that I trust
But a coinbase account is simply a must
Friends, BitCoiners, Countrymen lend me your ears
It's time to start trusting and easing our fears
Who's game?…
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"But either way, I just do this to keep myself critical of my personal investments." ---
@BenWerkman
Give this man a f'kin raise!!!
He sleeps mere minutes and hunts for days.
Finally, the font of youth meets the wisdom of age. From his book one should take a page.…
Saylor $MSTR Ownership/Voting Rights & Variable Convertible Note Stock Dilution
Personal Holdings
Class A - 400,000
Alcantara, LLC (Sole Member)
Class B - 1,961,668
Charitable Foundation (Sole Trustee)
Class A - 40,190
Total Shares Owned: 2,401,858
Total Voting Power:…
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Good Evening Tanner, allow me to see your 2.36 and raise you. Assuming the continued truism that four years hence
#Bitcoin
prices are always at least 2x their current level, and benchmarking the prev ATH of 69,000 ... One gets a future prediction of $138,000 as of Nov 10, 2025.
$MSTR
Current premium to NAV is 1.680. The asymmetric bet is that it is more likely to increase from here than to fall from here (towards 1x NAV, which is WORST CASE).
(1/2)
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@ryQuant
One more, Ryan my friend?
Notice that $1,240 --> $3,690 would lend itself so beautifully to a Three for One Stock Split?
Said split would eventually bring the stock right back around to $1,230 yet leave us each with three times as many shares!!! Center-Field, flag pole…
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BTC def sparked as we passed thru 68,350 ... MSTR Call sellers doing a good job of acting like they aren't worried. Likely hedging with BTC, praying for a lot of close outs tomorrow instead of exercises. Large offer at 69K ... Thanks Brett!
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@dognonymousanon
since I must have gotten liquidated, I will let you trade against me, cool? sounds fun.
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@BenWerkman
Option Expiration is tomorrow ... I would imagine some hedging will be called for on the open. That means a buyer.
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Imagine you're watching a movie
A movie about nuclear war
Wouldn't it be ever so groovy?
To find nothing is it good for
Options are different than futures
Liquidators love leverage you know
Loose lips, you know they get sutures
Run a small short just for show
Wasn't that movie…
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@dotkrueger
So basically what you are saying is that if you have a fast internet connection, you are definitely going to get Covid. I am downgrading to dial-up and getting a flip phone ...
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Intelligence is a mystery to me. I knew a few guys at Salomon who were geniuses. I was a high school dropout, lived in a trailer for a few years before I came back to life and went to college. Those guys were so much better educated than me. Somehow I figured out the answers,…
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@maxkeiser
Every new immigrant must change their first name to
#Bitcoin
and their last name to "Maxie" in honor of
@maxkeiser
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It's ok to be long, ok to be short, but to never admit you are wrong and then keep calling the top over and over is so lame. You're that guy who's called ten of the last two recessions, right? Mostly wrong, but never in doubt. Giddy up Kashyap
#Bitcoin
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@supplyshocks
all good as long as they can handle a god candle with respect to hypothecation. Lehman could not handle the collateral calls
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I just think it is "Times Up" for
@Sonnenshein
and
@BarrySilbert
over there. We never voted to convert to an ETF. If they had simply offered the option to redeem-in-kind (even if periodically), I would think they would have retained clients. The difference between a cell and a…
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@dotkrueger
$MSTR is a company, with the ability to expand using leverage and ratchet itself close enough to the 500th ranked company that the gravity will attach like a tractor beam and then MSTR buying will overwhelm and swallow up $GBTC like a flea.
#bitcoin
will surf in the glorious…
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So I have started thinking about blockchain as if it is a universal reference for time. When a baby is born, we say "Born at __ o'clock, ____ time zone". Maybe one day we will refer to the nearest specific block creation as a point in time ... make sense to anyone?
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@BritishHodl
It will be interesting to see options introduced so soon after creating ETFs on $BTC. Up until now, only a small segment of the population has been involved and it was basically a Hoover and HODL task for most. Somw would DCA. Canadians call it DC -eh?
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It's funny how I had to make a banal, dim-witted post two days ago just to attact a bit of an audience before I made a post below of EXTREME significance ... how many ppl here can see the connection between what I exposed below and the careful cultivation of our most treasured…
If you buy ETF shares fresh from the issuer, you must wait 30 days before they can be placed in a margin account. Day one of the advent of Spot
#Bitcoin
ETFs arrived and the only fund with actual coins was GBTC. The thing about ETFs is that they invite short sellers to come out…
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@althumanoid
@bitcoinlibertad
@Excellion
I appreciate your restraint but please allow me to debate the connection between money supply (M1, currently $19.93 Trillion) and the market price of any particular asset.
A market cap of $19.5 Trillion doesn't require a realized price of anywhere near that. Prices are set at…
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@EricBalchunas
Below are the top Institutional Holders of MicroStrategy $MSTR
#Bitcoin
(Vanguard is
#2
)
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Now before you call me out, suggesting that I am making a compounding error, please note that I debated this with myself and a stick with my analysis. "This is calculus, not algebra", said
@PunterJeff
... and I agree. Forward $MSTR multiple -----> 5x ... I'm calling my shot
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They reneged on their promise by reducing their fees by only 50bps, well outside the range of competitors.
See this excerpt from Grayscale website, preserved here before they have the opportunity to take it down. We have had enough of these games.
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I would hate to be short call options on that stock. Cash is queing up to exercise ... You know how a call option on MSTR gets it's exercise? It hops on ET's bike!!
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It's beginning to feel a lot like Oranges on the way to becoming Orange Juice. (you know: first you gotta squeeze it)
@PrestonPysh
@PunterJeff
@saylor
#Bitcoin
$MSTR
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@IIICapital
You make it sound like : "Your dog is probably going to eat your homework this weekend and you need to start getting ahead of it and be prepared to explain why your teacher is buried in your backyard."
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@coryklippsten
@saylor
Good afternoon Cory,
@Saylor
is a corporate executive who is likely discouraged from telling ppl to buy his stock becuase, at times, he has material non-public information. I do not think he is advocating the sale (short or otherwise) of his stock and he never discusses price.…
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My bad
@alphaazeta
... I am not normally prone to confrontation TBH but I figured it was a "Good Friday" to try something new. Did not fit. I don't wanna be anything other than what i've been tryin to be lately.
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@BitPaine
@YaManPatches
@saylor
You are correct Bit ... but be nice ... not everyone is as in touch as you and I
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gotta keep perspective ... I spent the whole night teasing this fvcker up 1500 points to 66,666 looking to kickstart the flywheel so I should not be too upset with 68,666
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Stay Tuned for a Spaces annoncement for next week
@tomyoungjr
. Topics will include a discussion of the creation mechanism for ETFs as well as the advantgages and drawbacks of ETFs, versus Trust Vehicles, and Coins. If you intend to drink, please leave your private keys in the…
Bitcoin and The Hand
There is more to Bitcoin than meets the eye. Everything from the foundational math of Bitcoin, the rollout of Bitcoin, and the position Bitcoin has created in our financial ecosystem.
Many will try to argue that it is just random luck, coincidence, and…
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@btcbenjamin1987
Yes, look at price action here as they try put a lid on the stock. Fool us once, shame on you.
Try to Fool us twice? ... well, people in glass houses shouldn't walk around in their underwear.
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"Market Cap, itself, is synthetic."
"I am an insurance broker. I think about tail events"
"Who can catch MSTR at this point?"
@PunterJeff
, you and
@PrestonPysh
... you converted me. Jeff, I bet you have multiple handfuls of leaps.
OMG you really were a punter! I was joking!
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At least I always make myself laugh .... You know what they call that?
Laughterbation.
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@dotkrueger
If there are still more than a half dozen Bitcoin ETFs in a year, I bet that MicroStrategy's market value will exceed the largest of them once again. $MSTR will be in every household's portfolio, exposing them to
#bitcoin
just like Newmont Mining does to minerals $30BB?
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Investing is a blood sport ain't it James?
Kerrisdale Capital's short position in
#MicroStrategy
($MSTR) about to feel the squeeze!!! Don't jump in front of a freight-train 🚆
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What is happening here ? I stepped away for a bowl of milk and a quick hit of catnip and the mice came out to play.
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Why 2K, you say?
Didn't we already do Y2K?
Is that Sonny & Cher I hear them play?
Am I stuck on Groundhog Day?
Is this fake or is it real?
Am I but a hamster in a hamster wheel?
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@BrianRoemmele
There's no better fellow
Than
@BrianRoemmele
There's but one mistake
That his parents did make
I think the "i" and the "a"
Were switched in his name
Not saying he's AI
But one helluva a brain
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