Jeff Walton
@PunterJeff
Followers
56K
Following
35K
Media
2K
Statuses
12K
Chief Risk Officer @Strive $ASST | CEO @MSTRTrueNorth | @HurdleRatePod | BTC Maximalist | Ex Reinsurance | Upgrade the World 🟩👆🏼Higher
PNW
Joined February 2012
Strategy tracking day 411 $MSTR now ranked 126th largest US company by market cap ($83.6B) Jumped 2 companies today. Trailing Moody’s. Knocking at the door for credit ratings. Day 77 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 16th largest publicly traded equity by volume
Strategy tracking day 410 $MSTR now ranked 128th largest US company by market cap ($81.5B) Fell 2 companies today. Big paint painting the equity world red. Day 76 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 16th largest publicly traded equity by volume
4
2
87
“So the borrower had negative EBITDA, pledged the same collateral to three other lenders, and you gave them a PIK toggle loan?”
25
46
705
This Bitcoin drawdown is within 1.5 standard deviations of typical bull market drawdowns ATH was 11 days ago. Business as usual
16
16
514
Link to the private credit market report for those interested: https://t.co/hjvUqR8ZsT
0
1
8
The notoriously OPAQUE Private Credit market (~$2T - $5T) has a composite average interest coverage ratio (ICR) of 1.5x, which is down 53% in the last 3 years (see image). Interest coverage ratio is defined as: (Earnings before interest & tax / Interest expense) 47% of Private
0
0
1
Private credit showing strain: - 40% of market has negative cash flow - Interest coverage down ~50% in 3yrs - Bankruptcies from First Brands and Tricor - Large downtown CRE leases rolling over Pensions, Insurers, & Endowments have been chasing that sexy high yield to meet
Private credit grew from 16% to 37% market share over 14 years Nothing compounds like risk you can’t see
13
4
138
Strategy tracking day 410 $MSTR now ranked 128th largest US company by market cap ($81.5B) Fell 2 companies today. Big paint painting the equity world red. Day 76 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 16th largest publicly traded equity by volume
Strategy tracking day 409 $MSTR now ranked 126th largest US company by market cap ($85.2B) Fell 1 company today. In the ballpark with floating hotels, double sided tape, and big Paint. Day 75 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 17th largest publicly traded equity by volume
12
6
178
Strategy tracking day 409 $MSTR now ranked 126th largest US company by market cap ($85.2B) Fell 1 company today. In the ballpark with floating hotels, double sided tape, and big Paint. Day 75 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 17th largest publicly traded equity by volume
Strategy tracking day 408 $MSTR now ranked 125th largest US company by market cap ($86.3B) Fell 8 companies yesterday. Paint is in the building Day 74 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 18th largest publicly traded equity by volume
12
7
187
No True North tonight! In transit to the Great White North. Conference season ramping back up. We'll be back in short order. Lots of content cooking. Here's a fun research term in the meantime: Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
14
7
86
SAT question: If someone gave you a Bitcoin today for free ($110,000), but you were obligated to pay them $13,000 / year, would you take that trade? That's the preferred equity ^
124
21
754
Strategy tracking day 408 $MSTR now ranked 125th largest US company by market cap ($86.3B) Fell 8 companies yesterday. Paint is in the building Day 74 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 18th largest publicly traded equity by volume
Strategy tracking day 407 $MSTR now ranked 117th largest US company by market cap ($90.6B) Jumped 6 companies today. Behind green aprons & bean water + coinbase. Day 73 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 17th largest publicly traded company by market cap
17
14
226
Optional steps: 1. Influence local jurisdiction tax laws to improve profitability. 2. Utilize jurisdictional tax law arbitrage to your advantage 3. Purchase reinsurance to protect base assets from large catastrophic downside events (to avoid liquidating illiquid assets) 4.
5
1
26
Insurance Company business model: Steps: 1. Start with assets (base capital) 2. Issue tail risk protection products to the market in exchange for premium 3. Invest premium in assets (diversified) 4. Pay for claims, when they arise, using future premiums, and only assets if
16
14
257
We're back with Hurdle Rate episode 31. We hit on: - Crypto Market flash crash - Building a BTC Treasury company from zero - The Private Credit market Tune in
Welcome back to The Hurdle Rate Podcast. Episode 31: The Digital Credit Landscape. The crew is back with the latest including the crypto crash of October 11, launching a treasury company from zero, and a deep dive on private credit. Here's the Hurdle Rate for the week of
8
5
100
JP Morgan has raised approx $2.5 Trillion of credit & capital for businesses and consumers YTD. The credit market is ENORMOUS and underpins the entire global economy. This is just *one* part of the TAM of BTCTC's issuing fixed income powered by Bitcoin.
10
5
120
Strategy tracking day 407 $MSTR now ranked 117th largest US company by market cap ($90.6B) Jumped 6 companies today. Behind green aprons & bean water + coinbase. Day 73 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 17th largest publicly traded company by market cap
Strategy tracking day 406 $MSTR now ranked 123rd largest US company by market cap ($87.5B) Fell 6 companies today. Back in the land of BIG Paint, spark plugs / windshield wipers and floating hotels. Day 72 in a row qualifying for the S&P 500 20th largest publicly traded
12
16
246