Jeff Walton
@PunterJeff
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Digital Capitalist | @MSTRTrueNorth founder | @HurdleRatePod | Ex Reinsurance Broker | Irresponsibly Long #Bitcoin & $MSTR | 🟩👆🏼Higher
Joined February 2012
Post $MSTR Q1 2025 Earnings call - reflections & breakdown
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The man on the right of Donald Trump is @howardlutnick, the US Secretary of Commerce . Howard is also CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. A couple of fun details about Howard and Cantor Fitzgerald:. 1. Howard owns “hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin, and it’s going to be Billions”.
HAPPENING NOW: President Trump signs an Executive Order calling for the creation of a Sovereign Wealth Fund💸
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I quit my job. Going Bitcoin full time. Come hang out for a few
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$96k Bitcoin by end of June is the target for $MSTR to have positive earnings, thus officially qualifying for the S&P 500. Momentum building.
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Hol up! . Allianz, the LARGEST INSURANCE COMPANY IN THE WORLD (by assets), purchased 24.75% of $MSTR $3B 0% convertible debt?!? . Wonder who saw that coming?!?!. Wait until other global insurance companies figure this out. Going so much 🟩👆🏼Higher
JUST IN: 🇩🇪 Germany's largest insurance company buys 24.75% of MicroStrategy’s 2031 convertible note 👀
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That’s it, Bitcoin via $MSTR is now in the Nasdaq 100. $MSTR now have a NEW continuous *price agnostic* passive bidder on the stock. The next 12 months are going to be electric . 🟩👆🏼Higher . Love you all 🧡.
OFFICIAL: MicroStrategy is joining the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ $MSTR.
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BTC is 5% from price discovery. $MSTR is:.1. 12% from record close ($473). 2. Consistently bashing ATH market cap & Rank (driving passive flows exponential) . 3. Sitting on a $12B Q2 NET INCOME (~$43 EPS) - a "Shock the world figure" to be released in August. 4. Poised to get.
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Whoa 😮 . $42B Bitcoin smash buy incoming, all SHOVED into $MSTR. Some quick math, let’s assume there are zero NEW buyers of Bitcoin, and a $42B Bitcoin purchase results in a CONSERVATIVE 75x multiple on Bitcoin market cap… . We’re looking at minimum $230k price per Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy announces $42 billion capital plan including $21 billion ATM equity offering and a target of raising $21 billion in fixed-income securities. Join us at 5pm ET as we discuss our quarterly results and #Bitcoin Treasury Company plans. $MSTR
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It's going to take the market years to comprehend this $MSTR earnings call. Anyone listening to the earnings call right now is creating a CONTINUED educational moat.
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Cantor Fitzgerald to launch $2B Bitcoin financing business. Custodians announced (@Anchorage & @CopperHQ). INSTITUTIONAL Bitcoin Lending is coming.
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@saylor Michael, . Fuck yeah, congratulations! . You deserve it!. $MSTR just increased its credit quality!. You should be really proud. You’ve built the most efficient corporate vehicle of all time. We are all eternally grateful . You can sleep well tonight. Cheers 🍻.
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This . $MSTR Entering 2025 with 446,400 Bitcoin. Bitcoin needs to go up ~$5,000 in Q1 for $MSTR to wipe out the entirety of negative earnings going back to 2020 (qualifying for S&P 500) . The balance sheet is DELEVERAGED from ATM buys and new BTC on balance sheet. EXPECT large.
@Lord_Ashdrake @saylor watch Q1.
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$MSTR air is getting thin. $36M of buy side volume (96,000 shares) slingshots the price to $410. I know for a fact that Irresponsibly Long $MSTR is exercising well in excess of 100k shares over the next two weeks. Strap in
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This next period of price discovery for Bitcoin and $MSTR is going melt faces . Buckle your seatbelt. Institutional grade Bewilderment is coming . 🟩👆🏼
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Q2 is likely going to be the big blow out quarter on Earnings for $MSTR . The quarter ends on 6/30 (52 days from now). The earnings release call will likely be on August 5th / 6th . Technically Qualifying $MSTR for the S&P500 . The market will react surprised & bewildered.
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Y’all . $MSTR’s credit quality just increased with $QQQ inclusion. AND . Fed meeting next week and presumably another 25 BP rate reduction . Might we see a BIG slug of zero coupon / negative coupon convertible debt in the coming weeks at 60% or 70% conversion?. Queue Santa rally.
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Reminder . $MSTR went from $500 to $1,999.99 in 36 trading sessions (+300%). Feb 2nd, 2024 to March 26th, 2024. Don’t be offsides.
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$MSTR is the most powerful company on the planet for the next century+ . The market largely doesn’t understand it yet, but they will. If you don’t get it, that’s OK. Everyone gets $MSTR at the market cap they deserve . 🟩👆🏼Higher.
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I don’t think anyone is prepared for $MSTR to have 425,000+ Bitcoin next week… . 🟩👆🏼Higher.
MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 $BTC acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per bitcoin. $MSTR
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$MSTR True North - Episode 16 - Strategy₿ Q4 '24 Earnings Call
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Alright y'all $MSTR Q4 2024 Earnings release tomorrow. "Analysts" estimate $0.06 Earnings Per Share Gain on average . They're WAY wrong. Again. Below are my estimates for EPS based on two scenarios: . Scenario 1. NO Adoption of FASB Fair Value Accounting: .- Est. EPS (LOSS)
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Quant Bros Episode 7.5 ⚡️."THE $MSTR thesis & new era of Bitcoin as collateral". - Valuing & comparing top 20 equities .- $MSTR Valuation thesis & framework .- Bitcoin as collateral & Programmable money .- Index Inclusion impact on MCap .- Where we're going & future outlook
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The last 15 days of November will be “The Bitcoin prosperity tales of 2024” 🧵. Second half of November IS a critical period for the social energy of Bitcoin. @Saylor and $MSTR are in a unique position with a financial tool that can dial up the volume of the social energy.
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Oh man. Continuing to have revelations about $MSTR. This beast is going to be a lot bigger than people can even begin to conceptualize. The power of the corporate balance sheet is an invisibility cloak.
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Bewilderment Intensifies! . WSJ has 3 million subscribers… . Once regarded as the premier trusted business news source, getting its ass whooped by decentralized Kid Analysts. $MSTR & Bitcoin 🟩👆🏼Higher
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$MSTR currently has 294 million diluted shares outstanding . Current largest company in the world is $AAPL at $3.54 Trillion . If $MSTR were to be at the #1 spot based on current diluted shares O/S, the price per share for $MSTR would be $12,040 . Don’t fumble the bag.
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Do you all realize how freaking strong this balance sheet is?.
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$MSTR now has accumulated 2% of the hardest money the world has ever seen (423,650 BTC). For those that need to hear this: THIS IS NOT BEARISH. Important statistics below: . 1. $MSTR has raised $15.63B since October 30th (40 days, 25 trading days) ~ $625 million, per trading day
MicroStrategy has acquired 21,550 BTC for ~$2.1 billion at ~$98,783 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 43.2% QTD and 68.7% YTD. As of 12/8/2024, we hodl 423,650 $BTC acquired for ~$25.6 billion at ~$60,324 per bitcoin. $MSTR
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A peek into $MSTR financial leverage over time. Takeaways: .1. As of 12/2/24, $MSTR has 5x more assets than they do Liabilities. Compare this to taking out a 20% mortgage on a house. 2. All ATM activity and BTC price rise over November has IMPROVED overall leverage ratios (aka
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If Q2 were to end today, with Bitcoin at $96,600, $MSTR would post a $7.5B single quarter GAIN+. This would qualify $MSTR for the S&P 500. Good thing there’s 60 days left in Q2 . Few.
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There is going to be so much fucking Bitcoin bewilderment over the next 12 months. Put on your hard hats, things ARE GOING TO GET CRAZY.
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Bitcoin will flip gold in market cap. $MSTR will flip Mag7 and be the number 1 pubco with the only valuation that makes financial sense. It’s written. Meme it into reality.
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$MSTR True North - Episode 21 - If you build it, they will come
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Wow, Lots going on today . - blatant coordinated $MSTR tax FUD media attack (WSJ, TipRanks, and Seeking Alpha). On a topic that is NOT new. - $MSTR conversion of $1B in convertible debt. Can convert over the next month, clearing up leverage on balance sheet . - Fred Kruger.
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7 months ago, @MSTRTrueNorth went from an idea to a reality. 45 days ago, “True North World” was just an idea, and today it became a reality. We had: .- Sold out tickets .- 21 sponsors .- 4 hours of locked in programming, including a live in person Episode 26 .- The CEO of our
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Calling $84k Bitcoin on 3/14, back on 11/5 (129 days ago), is incredibly improbable. Pretty sure @JoshMandell6 is either from the future, OR the man behind the curtain running the show . 🤷♂️ . Savant level . 🟩👆🏼 Higher
I hope that I have established a little credibility with a few of you so that this will help. This time IS different. The fourth turning is upon us. Thursday 11/7.1/16/25.3/14/25. When 84 becomes the base, .#Bitcoin CALLS will melt their face.This is how you get ahead.Buy.
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If @saylor *WERE* to utilize a majority/all of the $21B ATM offering in Q4, 2024 (maximizing shareholder value) . There’s a VERY REAL probability that $MSTR could hold 450,000 Bitcoin before the end of the year… . All your models are destroyed. 🟩👆🏼Higher.
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$MSTR is the only company in the $QQQ with a corporate treasury that trades 24/7/365, and is globally liquid. This is the reason their trading volume is so high. EPS can be forecasted and calculated in REAL TIME, without having to wait for asymmetric information earnings calls.
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Sherwin Williams $SHW has a market cap $4.8B higher than $MSTR. Listen to how crazy this is. Sherwin Williams has: . - Price to Book Ratio (NAV Multiple) of 23.- $23.9B in total assets.- $19.8B in total liabilities. - Price to Earnings Ratio of 41. - Revenue of: $23 B. - Net
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The potential S&P 500 passive flows to $MSTR are likely to surpass the scale of the existing ATM in place ($20B remaining). S&P 500 in scale is 10x larger than $QQQ. The relative inclusion ranking may result in 4x the scale of $QQQ inclusion in 2024. An inclusion in S&P 500,.
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I will be exercising 1/17/25 $MSTR contracts every single day for the next two weeks. Wonder what happens if there's a shortage of shares for delivery?.
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Think about this for a moment: . $MSTR has more Bitcoin than ALL nations in the entire world, COMBINED. Let that sink in. The seriousness of Strategy is palpable. Sovereign power. Every move by @Saylor is very calculated, understanding the immense scale of the situation.
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Speculation on logistics of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: . US Government backed Bitcoin Bonds. The US Government could auction $200B in Bitcoin bonds with various durations (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year). Raise capital throughout all of 2025 to buy Bitcoin, pay back.
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If Bitcoin goes to $13 Million per coin in 2045, per @saylor projection,. $MSTR likely to hold 1,000,000 coins (A Nakamoto). $MSTR's BTC assets would be worth $13 Trillion.3.7x the size of the current largest publicly traded co. At 2x mNAV & 400M shares ~ $65k per $MSTR.🟩👆.
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Some personal portfolio allocation things I have been thinking about: . *Explicitly Not financial advice*. Some basic assumptions: .1. Long Bitcoin .2. Long MSTR .3. Need income to fund my life / lifestyle .4. Don’t have time to pay incredibly close attention to daily market.
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HAPPY JAN 17, 2025! . Congratulations to All $MSTR hodlers! . Today is likely the largest single MASS option exercise event in stock market history. I have zero way to confirm, but willing to bet money on it. Cheers to everyone! .🍻 .PJ
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₿itcoin in cold storage should always be step #1 . If you haven’t done this, do it ASAP. How this looks: .1. Buy a hardware wallet (Coldcard / Trezor).2. Buy Bitcoin on exchange (River / Coinbase).3. Make sure seed phrase is properly backed up & secure .4. Send sats to hardware.
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Bitcoin and $MSTR are going to eat the entire insurance industry, from tail to head, . lol . Going to take a while, but way 🟩👆🏼Higher.
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$MSTR - PROFORMA Earnings Update . BTC @ $102,750. Estimated Q2 2025 Earnings: $11 Billion. The last 4 quarters of $MSTR earnings are: -$5.3 B . If Q2 were to close today, $MSTR would clear the FINAL metric needed for S&P inclusion by $5.6 Billion. An overwhelming blowout to the
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Quant Bros Episode 10 ⚡️ Unpacking $MSTR and the Convertible Bond Market. This was AN INCREDIBLE conversation with @RichardByworth digging into the nuances of the $MSTR Convertible Bond issuance, Product Operation & Pricing, Secondary Market Liquidity, Buyers Mentality, and
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LinkedIn is outta control. Boomer Bitcoin Bewilderment RAPIDLY Intensifying. We are going much much 🟩👆🏼Higher, and the insurance industry possibly NGMI
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In case anyone was curious, the Price to Book ratio (mNAV) of the ENTIRE S&P 500 COMBINED is 5.15. $MSTR's mNAV (Price to book) is 2.00 . Have a good day
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12 year BTC & $MSTR CAGR Hypothetical. Scenario 1:.Bitcoin at 25% CAGR = Mkt Cap of $28 Trillion ($1.33M per BTC). $MSTR at 1.5x (37.5% CAGR) = Mkt Cap of $3.7 Trillion ($12,783 per $MSTR share) . Here's the kicker, BTC's past 5 year CAGR is 63.5%. Scenario 2:.BTC at 50% CAGR =.
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Excited to debut - QUANT BROS ⚡️. Episode 1: Can $MSTR hit $10,000? . Thousands of hours of research, game theory, and complex topics distilled in this video. Overview in comments below and feedback is always welcomed. 😎
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By golly, we're off!.
Strategy Announces Proposed Private Offering of $2.0B of Convertible Senior Notes. $MSTR
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Yooooooo, someone pinch me! . $MSTR now the 476th largest US company ranked by market cap. How do I call the S&P500 people?
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Hold on to your butts. There are other whales in the market. Things are about to get very loud and very noisy
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99.99% of people are underestimating $MSTR's financial strength. With BTC @ $79K, $MSTR holds $33.5 Billion in NET assets (assets - debt). $33.5 Billion . Most people can't comprehend a Billion dollars. Let alone 33 Billion. 1 Billion is One Thousand Millions. 33 Billion is.
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The Financial Times IS a well revered top Financial Publication within Traditional Finance. Throughout college, my finance teacher harped on us that the FT was the most reputable news source for financial information. THE top tier publication. Made us all get subscriptions.
Strategy's share price increased by almost 400% in a single year, it owns more bitcoin than any other company and, for some investors, it feels 'less like a stock and more like a belief system'. But is leader Michael Saylor's strategy sustainable if the price of bitcoin falls?
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Incredibly thankful for the entire Bitcoin and $MSTR community 🧡. Have made some incredible lifelong friends, and met some amazing people over the last year, and excited for the years to come. Even thankful for the 1x mNAV “Ponzi” bears for extending this market opportunity,.
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Do you know how hard it is to raise $100M? . Well $MSTR did it 15 times LAST WEEK, and purchased 15,400 more BTC . Total HODL at 402,100 BTC . Leverage ratios IMPROVING. 🟩👆🏼Higher.
MicroStrategy has acquired 15,400 BTC for ~$1.5 billion at ~$95,976 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 38.7% QTD and 63.3% YTD. As of 12/2/2024, we hodl 402,100 $BTC acquired for ~$23.4 billion at ~$58,263 per bitcoin. $MSTR
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Michael @saylor has created the most chaotic and volatile asset ($MSTR), BY DESIGN. Long, short, options, debt, arb, MSTU / MSTX, MSTY. If you’re off put by day to day price action, this equity may not be for you. That’s ok. Any red day is not just ATM issuance, the ATM is.
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41.8% BTC yield?!? 🤯 . 331,200 BTC held on balance sheet. Btw, that is $4.6B raised in 5 trading days. 🟩👆🏼 So. Much. Higher.
MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 $BTC acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per bitcoin. $MSTR
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@JanGold_ You’re telling me a gold analyst with 50k followers doesn’t understand the concept of collateral? . 🟩👆🏼.
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Wait until $MSTR Whales start selling covered calls in a “bear-ish market” to buy Bitcoin to put into cold storage. Omg… . We’re an army… . Bitcoin Warriors 👀 . 🟩👆🏼Higher.
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Curious about $STRK and $STRF? - w/ Jeff Walton & Dan Hillery
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Steady lads,. Sniped some last minute $MSTR pre $QQQ shares
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Good thing Ramen is one of my favorite foods 🤣. Strategy unchanged, invert the colors on your apps if need be. Spend energy to acquire as much BTC and $MSTR as humanly possible . BTC under $2T, and $MSTR under $100B is a bargain imo . 🟩👆🏼.
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1. Drive up price of MSTR .2. OUTPERFORM BTC.3. Increase the mNAV.
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Wow. Holy shit. Anyone at Bitcoin Atlantis that wasn’t a full believer in $MSTR or @Saylor is going to go home and smash buy $MSTR next week. I’m now convinced that @Saylor will be president of the US within the next 4 - 12 years pending Bitcoin adoption rates.
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Every single $MSTR holder needs to watch this 10 minute @saylor video from Bloomberg today. Topics hit: .Politics .$42B Capital Plan & Future.Balance of ATM and Convertible Bonds .$QQQ & FASB + S&P 500 & profitability. 🟩👆🏼Higher .
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$MSTR leverage ratio continuing to go down. Assuming no more BTC buys before conversion, at today's BTC price ($106k), $MSTR leverage ratio is 13.3%. $MSTR has 7.5 times as many assets than they do liabilities. Balance sheet clearing up for more leverage
MicroStrategy to Redeem $1.05B of 2027 Convertible Notes and Settle All Conversion Requests in Shares $MSTR
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Remember this guy? Howard Lutnick, the US Secretary of Commerce. Yeah, his company holds $1.03B of $MSTR, and he personally holds “hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin”. This is the guy in charge of the US Sovereign Wealth fund…. We’re going 🟩👆🏼
🇺🇸 U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's Cantor Fitzgerald Increases $BTC Exposure!. New holdings Added in 4th Quarter:.🔸 3,580,131 shares of $MSTR (Microstrategy, worth $1.03B).🔸 170,362 shares of $MARA (MARA Holdings).🔸 1,127,368 shares of $IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust
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As of 1/21/25 at 2pm EST: . $MSTR assets held on balance sheet: $49.3B . $MSTR debt held on balance sheet ~ $7.5B . Leverage Ratio: 15.3%. 🟩👆Higher.
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Someone pinch me!. Ecstatic to take the stage with @saylor / Phong Le / @TimKotzman / @BenWerkman at Strategy World in Orlando May 5/6/7. Decentralized Retail investing communities becoming imperative for success in the modern day. THIS IS NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE.🟩👆.
@MSTRTrueNorth is excited to announce our fireside chat with @saylor and Phong Le at the Bitcoin for Corporations Conference!. Join Us in Orlando May 5, 6 & 7. Code KOTZ is still available for 20% off admission.
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$MSTR now ranked 88th largest US company by market cap ($99.15B). NEW RANKING ALL TIME HIGH!. Jumped 11 companies today and 18 this week! Cigarettes in the rear view and cyber security in the crosshairs. Day 290 in a row of qualifying for S&P 500 market cap threshold. 6th largest
$MSTR now ranked 99th largest US company by market cap ($94.21B). Fell two companies today. Behind Ethernet switches ($ANET) and $8 Lattes ($SBUX). Day 289 in a row of qualifying for S&P 500 market cap threshold . 12th largest public traded equity by volume
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The $MSTR ATM is necessary. It’s capturing passive volume coming into $MSTR. November run up captured $17B of passive volume from $QQQ and instantly turned into permanent BTC capital . SPY is 10x larger than QQQ. Something needs to be in place to capture that excess zombie.
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This is the moment that I realized the Total Addressable Market for $MSTR convertible debt is $300 Trillion+. These debt transactions can be designed in INFINITE fashions to fit INFINITE risk appetites, PERHAPS even with a negative interest rates. 🟩👆Higher
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$MSTR is a credit default swap on $100+ trillion in 20th-century assets.
$MSTR is a credit default swap on $100+ trillion in 20th-century assets.
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$MSTR now ranked 99th largest US company by Market Cap ($96.73B). NEW ALL TIME HIGH! Broke top 100! New ranking system with up to date shares O/S (. Jumped 27 companies today!. Day 186 in a row of qualifying for S&P 500 market cap threshold . 🍻
$MSTR now ranked 126th largest US company by Market Cap ($81.1B). Jumped 18 companies today!. Day 185 in a row of qualifying for S&P 500 market cap threshold. 51,780 BTC purchased, and $1.75B convertible debt offering today. 8 trading days until $QQQ rank day. 🟩👆🏼Higher
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If / When Interest rates come down, $MSTR is going to HAMMER the $STRK ATM, and the accretion is going to blow people's brains. The addition of $STRK to the financial toolkit cannot be understated.
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Catalysts on the horizon for Bitcoin and $MSTR in 2024 & early 2025
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One thing is VERY clear. @Saylor is on a relentless mission to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible during the “Gold Rush”. Saylor doesn’t care about QQQ (rightfully so), and understands that $MSTR doesn’t need QQQ to be successful, rather a boon if it happens. No Days Off.
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Now I’m getting blocked for just responding to questions… . Bewilderment compounding! . Thanks @PikerCapital . 🟩👆🏼Higher
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A big day for the $MSTR / $BTC record books. TOTAL market DOWN.Gold DOWN .VIX UP.Digital Capital UP. This is totally going to freak TradFi analysts out . LOTS of noise around BTC and MSTR strength today, because this is a REALLY big deal. MONUMENTAL
4/4/2025 . Hang it in the Louvre!. Can’t wait for the broader market to reflect and digest this one. MARKOWITZ MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY!
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$MSTR holds 444,262 Bitcoin. $MSTR started the year with 189,150 Bitcoin. $MSTR has added 255,112 Bitcoin to balance sheet this year. $4B of debt is set to convert (likely in Q1 ‘25), and the balance sheet is primed to take on leverage from newly issued debt. And some of y’all.
MicroStrategy has acquired 5,262 BTC for ~$561 million at ~$106,662 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 47.4% QTD and 73.7% YTD. As of 12/22/2024, we hodl 444,262 $BTC acquired for ~$27.7 billion at ~$62,257 per bitcoin. $MSTR
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This is the thinnest I’ve seen the sell side of the $MSTR order book in a LONG time… . $14M of net new buy side volume would move the Market Cap $6.2 Billion . A multiple of 422x . Remember, all assets (equities) trade at the margin. When the margin is THIN, there is volatility
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I anticipate many people selling $IBIT, and other spot Bitcoin ETF’s this week in exchange for $MSTR . (BTC down, MSTR up). The world still has very little understanding of the magnitude of what @saylor is doing. Imagine not having any exposure to this 😱 . 🟩👆🏼Higher.
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@saylor You have inspired MANY others to begin their own green dot journey. Thank you for your contributions, Sir! . 🫡.
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*split adjusted $400*. Here we are 🎉 . 🔮
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$GME has reached *LEVEL 2*. 2021 was just Level 1. (Imagining this as a new level of difficulty in Donkey Kong, with a new boss) . The issuance of Convertible bonds just upped the complexity of the game, which adds a whole new element to solve and *WIN*. Here’s some Game Theory.
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When Adam is long, you go long.
@saylor And the converts are baaack. Time to increase $MSTR leverage for the bull market.👍.
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