Nowcast EU 🗳️
@Nowcast_EU
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Real-time parliamentary seat projections • run by @JoshHousden (https://t.co/zC43JffDc6) • Support us on ko-fi
Europe
Joined July 2023
Countries that are covered by @Nowcast_EU projection models (24/11/2025) 🟩 - We try to update at least once or twice a month 🟧 - Timing of updates is subject to polling frequency New additions: 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇪 Estonia
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🇩🇪 | Hypothetical coalitions Kenya (⚫🔴🟢) - 368 —————————— <- Majority (316) GroKo (⚫🔴) - 285* GrüKo (⚫🟢) - 264 RRG (🔴🟢🟣) - 261 Red/Grn (🔴🟢) - 187 Red/Red (🔴🟣) - 178 *current government
🇩🇪 Germany | Legislative Election Nowcast update — December 6, 2025 ➡️ AfD: 26% | 187 (+35) ⬛ Union: 25% | 181 (-27) 🟥 SPD: 15% | 104 (-16) 🟩 GRN: 12% | 83 (-2) 🟪 Linke: 10% | 74 (+10) — 🟫 BSW: 4% | 0 (=) 🟨 FDP: 3% | 0 (=) +/- vs. Feb 2025
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🇩🇪 Germany | Legislative Election Nowcast update — December 6, 2025 ➡️ AfD: 26% | 187 (+35) ⬛ Union: 25% | 181 (-27) 🟥 SPD: 15% | 104 (-16) 🟩 GRN: 12% | 83 (-2) 🟪 Linke: 10% | 74 (+10) — 🟫 BSW: 4% | 0 (=) 🟨 FDP: 3% | 0 (=) +/- vs. Feb 2025
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🇦🇹 Austria | Legislative Election polling averages — December 5, 2025 ⬛ FPÖ: 37.3% (+8.4) 🟦 ÖVP: 19.4% (-6.9) 🟥 SPÖ: 17.9% (-3.2) 🟩 GRN: 10.9% (+2.7) 🟪 NEOS: 9.3% (+0.2) — 🟫 KPÖ: 2.7% (+0.3) +/- vs. 2024 Projection at the district level 👇 🔗 https://t.co/RbAKOdXZlT
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🇦🇹 Austria | Legislative Election polling averages — December 5, 2025 ⬛ FPÖ: 37.3% (+8.4) 🟦 ÖVP: 19.4% (-6.9) 🟥 SPÖ: 17.9% (-3.2) 🟩 GRN: 10.9% (+2.7) 🟪 NEOS: 9.3% (+0.2) — 🟫 KPÖ: 2.7% (+0.3) +/- vs. 2024 Projection at the district level 👇 🔗 https://t.co/RbAKOdXZlT
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🇸🇰 Slovakia | Legislative Election Nowcast update — December 4, 2025 #️⃣ PS: 23% | 40 (+8) 🟥 Smer: 17% | 30 (-12) 🟫 Rep: 10% | 17 (+17) 🟪 Hlas: 9% | 16 (-11) 🔲 SK+: 9% | 15 (-1) 🟩 SaS: 7% | 12 (+1) 🟨 KDH: 6% | 11 (-1) 🟦 Dem: 5% | 9 (+9) +/- vs. 2023
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🇵🇱 | Calculated result of these polling averages 🔗 https://t.co/4ZiNiZQdZv
🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election polling averages — December 3, 2025 🟧 KO: 33.3% (+2.6) 🟦 PiS: 28.4% (-7.0) ⬛ Kon: 13.8% (+7.5) 🟥 Lew: 6.9% (+1.3) 🟫 KKP: 6.8% (+5.9) — 🟪 Raz: 3.8% (+1.7) 🟩 PSL: 2.8% (-2.7) 🟨 PL50: 2.2% (-5.0) +/- vs. 2023 County-level projection 👇
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🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election polling averages — December 3, 2025 🟧 KO: 33.3% (+2.6) 🟦 PiS: 28.4% (-7.0) ⬛ Kon: 13.8% (+7.5) 🟥 Lew: 6.9% (+1.3) 🟫 KKP: 6.8% (+5.9) — 🟪 Raz: 3.8% (+1.7) 🟩 PSL: 2.8% (-2.7) 🟨 PL50: 2.2% (-5.0) +/- vs. 2023 County-level projection 👇
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🇹🇷 Turkey | Legislative Election Nowcast update — December 2, 2025 🟥 CHP: 33% | 248 (+79) 🟧 AKP: 31% | 253 (-15) 🟪 DEM: 9% | 62 (+1) 🟫 MHP: 7% | 35 (-17) 🟥 TIP: 1% | 4 (=) ——— threshold ——— ℹ️ IYI: 6% | 0 (-43) ⬛ ZP: 5% | 0 (=) 🔲 YR: 3% | 0 (-5) +/- vs. 2023
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🇩🇰 Denmark | Legislative Election polling averages — November 30, 2025 🟥 A: 18.2% (-9.3) 🟪 F: 13.6% (+5.3) ℹ️ I: 12.1% (+4.2) 🟦 V: 11.4% (-1.9) ⬛ Æ: 9.7% (+1.6) 🟨 O: 8.5% (+5.9) 🟩 C: 8.2% (+2.7) 🟧 Ø: 6.9% (+1.8) 🟪 B: 4.4% (+0.6) 🟪 M: 2.1% (-7.2) ... +/- vs. 2022
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Some caveats... • This may include parties that support a government but don't take part in it • Aside from polling, the map could change if a party leaves or enters a government • Some of these governments may already function as a minority
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🚨 NEW | @Nowcast_EU government vulnerability tracker - worst performers 🔴🇪🇪 Estonia — Kristen Michal 🔴🇬🇧 U.K. — Keir Starmer 🔴🇨🇵 France — Sébastien Lecornu 🟠🇸🇰 Slovakia — Robert Fico 🟠🇩🇰 Denmark — Mette Frederiksen Based on legislative election polling
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🇬🇧 UK | House of Commons Nowcast update — November 29, 2025 ➡️ RFM: 28% | 342 (+337) 🟥 LAB: 18% | 71 (-340) 🟦 CON: 17% | 44 (-77) 🟩 GRN: 14% | 31 (+27) 🟧 LDM: 12% | 80 (+8) 🟨 SNP: 3% | 44 (+35) 🔲 PLC: 1% | 7 (+3) +/- vs. GE2024 🔗 https://t.co/D6Dk8v7beK
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🇸🇪 | Bloc vote 🟥 Left: 52% | 190 (+17) 🟦 Right: 46% | 159 (-17) +/- vs. 2022
🇸🇪 Sweden | Legislative Election Nowcast update — November 28, 2025 🟥 S: 35% | 126 (+19) 🟨 SD: 21% | 76 (+3) ➡️ M: 18% | 66 (-2) 🟪 V: 7% | 25 (+1) 🟩 MP: 6% | 22 (+4) 🔲 C: 5% | 17 (-7) ⬛ KD: 5% | 17 (-2) ——— threshold ——— 🟦 L: 2% | 0 (-16) +/- vs. 2022
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🇸🇪 Sweden | Legislative Election Nowcast update — November 28, 2025 🟥 S: 35% | 126 (+19) 🟨 SD: 21% | 76 (+3) ➡️ M: 18% | 66 (-2) 🟪 V: 7% | 25 (+1) 🟩 MP: 6% | 22 (+4) 🔲 C: 5% | 17 (-7) ⬛ KD: 5% | 17 (-2) ——— threshold ——— 🟦 L: 2% | 0 (-16) +/- vs. 2022
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🇵🇹 Portugal | Legislative Election Nowcast update — November 27, 2025 🟧 AD: 33% | 91 (=) 🟪 PS: 25% | 65 (+7) ⬛ CH: 20% | 50 (-10) ℹ️ PIL: 6% | 10 (+1) 🟨 LIV: 6% | 9 (+3) 🟥 CDU: 3% | 3 (=) 🟩 PAN: 2% | 1 (=) 🟫 BE: 1% | 0 (-1) ... +/- vs. May 2025
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🇮🇹 Italy | Legislative Election Nowcast update — November 26, 2025 ⬛ FdI: 31% | 120 (+1) 🟥 PD: 22% | 95 (+26) 🟨 M5S: 13% | 55 (+3) 🟩 Lega: 8% | 44 (-22) 🟦 Forza: 8% | 36 (-9) 🟪 AVS: 7% | 28 (+16) ... 🟦 CDX: 48% | 203 (-34) 🟥 CSX: 46% | 184 (+48)* +/- vs. 2022
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🇬🇷 Greece | Legislative Election polling averages — November 25, 2025 ➡️ ND: 30.5% (-10.1) 🟩 PSK: 14.2% (+2.4) *️⃣ EL: 11.0% (+6.6) 🟪 PE: 9.3% (+6.1) 🟥 KKE: 9.0% (+1.3) 🟪 SYZ: 5.9% (-11.9) 🟦 FL: 4.8% (+4.4) ... +/- vs. 2023 Projection at the constituency level 👇
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🇸🇮 | Government parties would be reduced to 34 seats out of 90 🟦 GS (-21) 🟥 SD (+1) 🟥 Lev (+1) +/- vs. 2022
🇸🇮 Slovenia | Legislative Election nowcast — November 25, 2025 🟨 SDS: 27% | 27 (=) 🟦 GS: 21% | 20 (-21) 🟥 SD: 8% | 8 (+1) 🟦 Dem: 7% | 7 (+7) ➡️ NSi: 7% | 6 (-2) 🟥 Lev: 6% | 6 (+1) 🟪 PVP: 5% | 5 (+5) 🟪 Res: 5% | 5 (+5) 🟫 SNS: 4% | 4 (+4) ... +/- vs. 2022
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