Ben Walker
@BNHWalker
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Co-Founder of @BritainElects . Senior Data Journalist for the @NewStatesman . Borough councillor for Chester's city centre and the Garden Quarter.
Chester, England
Joined March 2017
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I'll always remember the day I had to call my student landlord to explain why I'll be a few days late on rent (work being late on payment), and the anger and incredulity in her voice while she was... horse-riding stays with me to this day.
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Labour do well when the Lib Dems do well. I question the second rate hot takes that North Shropshire has negative implications for Starmer.
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November
>Bank of England forecasts inflation will halve in 2023
January
>Rishi Sunak pledges to halve inflation in 2023
ok
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Worst result for the Conservatives in West Lancashire's history.
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CNN: former president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, how do you plan to defend yourself?
Poroshenko:
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woman: *breathes*
mp: lol r u only doing that to distract boris
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Pick one:
> Having your name chanted at Glastonbury
> Beating the Tories on the economy
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"We can win elections, and make change, or we can pursue apparent political purity in our party. But make no mistake, we can't do both"
— Starmer at ScotLab's annual conference just now
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How the wards that make up the Hartlepool constituency voted on Thursday:
Lab: 42.8%
Con: 34.1%
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We have High Wycombe modelled as a Labour gain with an 8pt majority
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Irritating and yet endearing that both Gareth Southgate and Marcus Rashford have a better grasp of how to properly own and elevate English identity with the politics of social justice than the current Labour party.
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No sign of protest in the hall. No dissent. Labour's members rise to sing the national anthem. New era? Feels it.
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Labour GAIN Handforth South (Handforth Parish) from Independent.
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Me for the NS:
By obsessing over immigration, the Tories are chasing phantom voters. Salience has fallen. Attitudes have shifted. There isn't a UKIP vote to squeeze - this isn't 2015 anymore 👇
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Don't know why Sunak thinks tarring Starmer with Corbyn will work. Public notice the party isn't what it used to be, and don't make the associations Westminster is desperately trying to do. Who's advising this guy?
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Keep coming back to this 2015 intervention from Hilary Benn
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Bullshit, Dan.
Lab in Sunderland in 2018: 47%
... in 2019: 32.8%
... in 2021: 39.2%*
... in 2022: 44.6%
*The same day as Hartlepool.
@REWearmouth
@jonwalker121
Right. So Labour hasn’t advanced since Hartlepool. So how’s that a good result?
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Today has reminded me of the mock-up posters Labour had for Brown's snap election. Would work well today.
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Okay, so this table is pretty disingenuous stuff from The Times. Qualification requirements for standard courses against foundation are just... not comparable.
My middle son is hoping to study economics at uni from September - this makes my blood boil: Cashfor courses: top universities recruit foreign students on low grades
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Discontent because some MPs believe the flag is a figure of the far right.
Well, it's gonna stay that way if MPs don't let Labour try to reclaim it.
Grow up, is my advice.
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18pt majority for Labour in Wakefield is significant. Better than the national polls, but a touch under the two constituency polls done in the seat. IF reflected nationally, it would give Labour a comfortable majority in the Commons.
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Windsor Castle and Eton now represented by Lib Dem councillors...
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So last year Sunak made £1,970,992 through various means (ministerial salary, investment income, etc) and paid various taxes that amounted to £446,430 - 22.7%
... meanwhile I, a graduate, pay an effective tax rate of 25.6%. Christ.
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POV you're at Labour List karaoke and Things Can Only Get Better comes on
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The Labour MP for Canterbury said at party conference last month she would leave Labour if Eddie Izzard was allowed on an all-women shortlist.
Labour voters disagree with her.
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Bit of a shocker, this. The last time the ward voted Labour was 2012, and back then it was won with 38% of the vote.
Dudley Labour's doing something right.
Wollaston and Stourbridge Town (Dudley) election result:
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Lab: 49.1% (+4.3)
Con: 40.9% (-7.5)
LDem: 6.8% (+6.8)
Oth: 3.1% (+3.1)
More:
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turning up to work after weeks of absence bc it's drinks night
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Popularity of Prime ministers on/near day 100:
Tony Blair: 74% approval
Gordon Brown: 50%
David Cameron: 57%
Theresa May: 42%
Boris Johnson: 39%
... and Rishi Sunak: 28%
The worst start.
Some thoughts:
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I see Downing Street have launched their own newspaper!
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"The Conservatives are on course to make a net loss of more than 400 council seats across Great Britain"
"That's great, let's put a korma pun on the front page"
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"It's all part of my plan to be without senior figures in Downing Street."
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8 years, 7 months and 3 days since Labour gained a by-election seat.
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Local aggregate in Wakefield points to a sizeable Labour gain in the parliamentary by-election to come.
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Full disclosure, I am now a borough councillor for Chester's city centre & the Garden Quarter.
When it comes to continued objective analysis about public opinion and elections, the proof, imo, is in the pudding. It's up to you to decide, but nothing has, or will ever, change.
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She's great.
"I don't work on the railways, I work in parliament" says Labour's Lisa Nandy as
#Raworth
asks if she would have voted for rail strikes
Nandy adds there is no point telling staff to "get round the table, if you've taken away the table"
#SundayMorning
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Wandsworth: demonstration of Labour's ability to actually win something
Barnet: demonstration of Labour's ability to win with Jewish voters
Westminster: over and above
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Russians woke up this morning telling me their armed forces would not target civilian areas. They were adamant. Now they just look on in shock.
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Most Britons...
1. Think the BBC are in the wrong over suspending Lineker;
2. Don't think it's acceptable to compare gov policy with that of the Nazis;
3. Support sports correspondents promoting their own politics on their own personal channels;
4. Like Stopping The Boats™
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Never forget the Conservative MPs who called Theresa May "mummy" because she got them 15pt leads in the polls.
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Quite the result in Somerset. Lib Dems have surged from 21% of the seats to 55% - majority control.
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Communist Party of Britain now has elected representation - a Cllr Iain Mooney on Barrow Borough Council. A defection from Lab to Comm.
Bit late in the day. The council is to be abolished on 01 Apr.
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Huge shift in *GB-wide* public opinion of Nicola Sturgeon:
Favourable: 33% (-10)
Unfavourable: 53% (+14)
YouGov, 09 Mar
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And here's what happened after those 23 months for Corbyn...
🌹 Starmer's approval after 23 months:
✅ Approve: 32%
❌ Disapprove: 38%
[Net rating of -6]
---
🌹 Corbyn's approval after 23 months:
✅ Approve: 43%
❌ Disapprove: 39%
[Net rating of +4]
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2001 general election:
Lab: 40.7%
Con: 31.7%
Result: 412 Lab MPs
2022 polling:
Lab: 40.6%
Con: 32.7%
Projection: 312 Lab MPs
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Charting public opinion on the last three PMs looks so ridiculous...
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They just got their A-level results!
Some of Bristol's newly-elected Green councillors with party leader Jonathan Bartley outside City Hall this morning following the 'Green surge' at the weekend
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Gosh, we're very much within the realms of possibility that we are living under Britain's shortest ever serving Prime Minister.
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With little sign of fading, Labour's rise from 26% mid-April to 42% now has been quite something.
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The party of so-called sound finance is spaffing cash on an offshore processing centre to please a phantom voter that isn't as fussed about this as they think
Andrew Mitchell, Tory, says it would be cheaper to put adult asylum seekers up at the Ritz & send under-18s to Eton than to put them in offshore processing centres
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The Banter Timeline demands Theresa May challenges Boris Johnson in a leadership election
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To address extreme levels of data scraping & system manipulation, we’ve applied the following temporary limits:
- Verified accounts are limited to reading 6000 posts/day
- Unverified accounts to 600 posts/day
- New unverified accounts to 300/day
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Deselections when the right faction is in charge:
Choo Choo!🚩✊
Deselections when the wrong faction is in charge:
Divisive purges!
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Swings in safer seats are less impressive than in marginals - shocker.
Despite 70% vote share for Labour, the swing was relatively underwhelming - implying a national Labour lead of 9pts.
The 10.5% swing, if repeated nationwide, would produce seat result of:
🔴 LAB 302 (+100)
🔵 CON 261 (-104)
🟡 SNP 48 (-)
🟠 LD 17 (+6)
🟢 PC 2 (-2)
🟢 GRN 1 (-)
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Flags won't win elections, but rejecting them and all that they symbolise outright won't help, either. Is this really so hard to understand?
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YouGov earlier this week had the Cons level pegging with Lab on the economy. Now we have this from Ipsos:
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I knew not one single centrist or "yass queen" soft lefty who said they were gonna go out and campaign for them. Zero groundwork. Zero local organisation. Humiliating stuff.
This day 4 years ago Change UK was born.
Today not a single one of them is an MP.
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I'm not sure what this means?
Keir Starmer now saying that rural communities are in his DNA. Bet he did not say that when he was running for Holborn and St Pancras.
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Need to do a quiz
Who said this, a current Conservative MP, or a 2010-15 Ukip candidate?
You'd click that, right?
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To repeat - Selby and Ainsty: largest numerical majority overturned by Labour in post-war history
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Good morning. The polls this week - 16pt Labour lead
Lab: 44.6%
Con: 28.0%
LDem: 10.1%
Would mean Lab 387 seats, Con 183, LDem 26 - Britain Predicts
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one in three blame the last Labour government for the HGV driver shortage
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this was ali btw
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New Twitter update:
>"Twitter Blue for $7.99/month"
>"Your content will get priority ranking in replies, mentions and search."
>"This helps lower the visibility of scams, spam, and bots"
Bots and scammers - famously incapable of spending $7.99
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I don't remember Labour's problem with antisemitism being written up as "the Jewish question," so I'm not sure why it should be acceptable to cover the Tory party's foray into exploiting the existence of trans ppl for votes as "the transgender question."
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New post: Here's the thing with "trans issues" in the UK
Most voters have an opinion, but the vast majority will readily admit to not paying it much attention. As a 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗼𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗲, it's next-to-nonexistent. 🧵
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Distressing, there's someone standing in this year's council elections who was born in 2004.
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For a story like this, that 69% is... very high.
🚨NEW SNAP POLL🚨
💥69% say PM responsible for LOTO being harassed
💥54% 2019 Con also say this
💥68% say he should publicly apologise to Starmer
💥68% say he should withdraw comments
💥64% say politics has gotten nastier in last 5 yrs
1,094 UK adults, 8 Feb 2022
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Kyiv Independent now saying the Hostomel airport near the capital, lost to the Russians earlier today, has now been reclaimed by Ukrainian troops
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Majority of Scottish Tory MPs have indicated they'll vote against Boris Johnson tonight.
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RE Selby, remember this: 20,000 majority. Overturning that would be a record for Labour. Unless anyone can point me otherwise I believe it would be the largest numerical overturned *by Labour* ever in the party's history, by-election or not.
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Lab 400+ seats. That's the takeaway of last night's by-elections.
Britain Predicts pretty much bang on in Kingswood, but understated Lab by 8pts in Wellingborough.
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I think when we make observations like "half want to bring back the death penalty" we should consider this is a focus group of eight participants.
EXCL - Red Wall voters tell Rishi Sunak to get a grip on the small boats crisis.
I sat in on a focus group run by
@Moreincommon_
where they warned the current system is broken.
Interestingly, half those taking part back bringing back the death penalty
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Star entry for Bad Bar Charts™, courtesy of the Greens in Christleton and Huntington, Cheshire West
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🧵 Thread on England's 🏴 revised constituency boundaries...
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