John Huber
@JohnHuber72
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Founder, Portfolio Manager: Saber Capital Management Notes: Disclaimer:
Raleigh, NC
Joined September 2012
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Some thoughts on a new investment idea I've been working on (link in bio)
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Higher margins aren't ideal if a higher ROIC could be achieved with lower margin. What matters is return on incremental capital. Gross margin isn't most important; it's gross profit dollars earned on each dollar invested. I like this thinking and the example from $HD
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This is a really interesting idea that Einhorn has been talking about recently. I've noticed many companies (what I'd call stealth high quality; Japan is one of numerous examples) where the stocks are so cheap and there is just "no one home" as a friend likes to say.
What's
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A concept that Buffett beautifully articulates is if you are a net buyer of stocks, you should want them to fall, not rise. I love the simplicity but also the dissonance here, because individual investors who earn more than they spend and internalize this mindset gain a huge edge
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Since the start of the pandemic 2 years ago, $BRK.B has now significantly outperformed $ZM, $SHOP and a number of other Covid winners. Just amazing when you think about it. It's a real life tortoise vs hare result
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@HML_Compounder
@KYRRadio
It’s adding an extra payment each year. Bi-weekly would be 26 “half” payments a year, or 13 full mortgage payments instead of 12. You could also accomplish a similar outcome by just adding 1/12th principal to every payment each month.
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In the Panic of 1907, our economy plunged. Steel output -60%, iron -55%, imports -26%, unemployment soared, doors closed, rent wasn't paid. Economic output cratered for 6 months. GDP down 10% in 1908 but had quarters down 25%. Yet, stocks rose 44% in 1908.
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I don't think I've ever observed a large cap stock rise by 70% in a year while the earnings multiple actually contracted: $GOOG
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Buffett invested in 5 Japanese stocks in 2020. That initial basket investment is up over 3x in 3 years, a 44% CAGR on that initial purchase.
Some thoughts from my
@JournalyticApp
entry today
Might publish these later:
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I just reread these posts that I wrote 4 years ago, and I glanced at my old watchlist. The stocks that looked like really cheap statistical bargains had mediocre returns, and the compounders that looked expensive were actually bargains. The ROIC really is key over time.
High ROIC always wins in the end, given a long enough time horizon 💸
The importance of ROIC, a couple of splendid articles vía
@JohnHuber72
- Part 1:
- Part 2:
#ValueInvesting
#ROIC
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$AAPL has returned 6x since 2016: 3x was from multiple expansion, 1.6x from earnings growth, and 1.3x from buybacks (AAPL reduced shares by 25% since '16). Biggest factor was multiple, but buybacks are a big tailwind. What are your favorite share-eating companies?
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$PINS Head of Engineering explaining why it's so hard to consider leaving off the cloud, even when they're sending $300 million/yr to AWS
(paywall)
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In 2012,
@JoshTarasoff
did this AMZN presentation. It's the best writeup I've seen on AMZN. At the end, he says he thinks AMZN can do 30% CAGR for next 10 yrs. 5 yrs in, AMZN has compounded at 38%. But regardless of result, it's great thinking:
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Ted Weschler's $DDS showed the value created from 2 simple factors: High FCF + a very cheap stock
When your stock trades at 25% FCF yield and it all goes to buybacks, you create a reinvestment engine similar to a 25% ROIIC grower.
Some of these are now deploying this playbook:
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Great chart. Buffett talks a lot how Munger taught him to pay up for great businesses, but I think his definition for paying up is much lower than most. He hardly ever pays over 15 P/E; he thought 14-16 P/E for Coke was “paying up”; most of his stocks even today are closer to 10x
@valuedontlie
Here’s a list of pretax multiples Buffett has paid for his biggest buys…… Precision Cast Parts 👀
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S&P is now down 20%. Who knows what the economy (or the market) does next year, but if you view stocks as businesses, this is one of those times that comes along once in a while where it’s great to be buying. Lots of value out there. Fun times at the office now. Merry Christmas!
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A lot of air time being given to Berkshire's investment in $GOLD, but it's less than 0.2% of BRK's equity capital; worth about $0.23 per B share. AAPL is worth $47 per B share. A 1% daily change in AAPL's stock price is worth more than double the entire $GOLD investment.
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Yet again, it's amazing (but not surprising) how right Buffett/Munger were. What I noticed from their comments over the past couple years is they saw the incentive problems, greed, fraud, the greater fool game, without knowing the intricacies. But the former is all that mattered
That time Warren Buffett NAILED crypto cons:
“It draws in a lot of CHARLATANS…who are trying to create various sorts of EXCHANGES, where people who are of less-than-stellar character…CLIP PEOPLE who are trying to get rich because their neighbor’s getting rich.”
@SBF_FTX
to a T
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The filter Combs described he & Buffett using is is one of the most elegant "screeners" I've seen. Really gets you thinking about durability. Can't replicate confidence interval, but I attempted it using
@theTIKR
: 5%/yr growth 2005-2019 & <16 P/E. Very few make that cut
This is one of the best "screens" I have seen for Buffett-type stock ideas
What stocks (if any) are going to be:
• 15x EPS next year
• 90% sure to have higher EPS in 5 years
• 50/50 chance of compounding at 7% a year
Name some stocks that fit this screen!
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WeWork is profitable because it doesn't have any operating expenses (excluding all of their operating expenses):
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$AAPL is a ~15x since 2011 yet has had two periods where the stock was flat four 4 years, underperforming the market. Always good to remember that the biggest winners in the stock market all go through negative and underperforming periods
via
@SagaPartners
H2 2023 letter
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New post with some thoughts on the valuations, ROICs and the rising capital intensity of the formerly capital light tech companies (link in bio)
$GOOG $MSFT $META
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One of my favorite parts of BRK meeting is the Buffett & Munger side references to little investments they made decades ago (Belridge Oil, Duck Club, etc)
Latest: Munger reveals he gets $70,000/yr oil royalties from a 1959 investment
WB: What did you pay for that?
CM: $1,000
😂
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“If you have a business that doesn’t take any capital…” Buffett describes why capex light businesses are naturally hedged against inflation. I think this is partly why he was buying a basket of ad agency stocks in the 1970’s.
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This is such great advice from Munger when it comes to portfolio management. Everyone's trying to be smarter, search deeper, and solve the most complex problems, which makes those areas very competitive places to play. Just avoiding difficult things is so simple, but not easy
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$FB's EV to gross profits is ~9x. Hard pressed to find a business with 80% gross margins that continues to grow at double digit rates that is cheaper
(I like how
@theTIKR
added EV/GP to their historical charts; a metric I like to track across Saber's watchlist)
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Such a simple concept when analyzing companies: is the business profitable? If not, why not? The best companies are profitable very early, with very few exceptions. “Scale” is often a buzzword. Be a little wary of unprofitable firms that reference the exceptions to raise funds.
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@TrungTPhan
He used the phrase “Bayesian priors” twice for good measure, just to leave no doubt in people’s mind that he’s smart 😂
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23 years ago today, Jeff Raikes wrote an email to Warren Buffett with a succinct pitch on why MSFT would create so much value.
The best businesses earn high high returns on the capital that someone else invested. I wrote a post on this idea last year:
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I remember when Buffett described big tech companies as great because they needed no capital to grow. This was true for a while, but it would be interesting to get his updated views as BRK (and others usually thought of as capex heavy) are now capital lighter by comparison
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One of my favorites among the many Charlie Munger pearls of wisdom.
Be the Best Plumber in Bemidji:
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To demonstrate the huge productivity gains in the US, Buffett often cites how 80% of the country’s population worked in farming before the Industrial Revolution vs just 3% now. He should just show this video next time
h/t
@DynamicMoats
(Side note: the stat above + this video
An amazing automation process in agriculture
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Another great compilation. Munger in 994 pages. I'll treat this as sort of a warmup for the full workout: the 4800 page Buffett compilation. 30 pages a day gets you through both in 6 months.
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1/ Best thing I've read this week: Post by
@packyM
on how "API companies" are building out moats by providing critical functions that their customers can't (nor want to) replicate at the same level of cost or quality
h/t
@thesovagroup
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I talked with the Columbia Business School students for the latest edition of Graham and Doddsville Newsletter. We discussed Saber's investment approach as well as our investment in $ETSY. Thanks to CBS for having me! Enjoyed the conversation.
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$MUSA is a 10-bagger in 10 yrs (26% CAGR). Great example of "boring" stock in low growth industry (gas stations) that created huge value (like NVR, AZO, ORLY). 2 key ingredients: consistent buybacks + persistently below avg valuation. The boring part helps sustain the latter
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Facebook is a lightning rod right now, and the negative sentiment is extreme, but I think the stock is really undervalued. I wrote a note to my investors this week with some thoughts:
$FB
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$FB keeps building their moat. The quality of the human capital at that company is remarkable, and management continues to impress, despite the constant burden of being scapegoated by both sides of the political arena. Zuckerberg really is one of the great CEO’s
Starting today, people across India will be able to send money through WhatsApp 💸 This secure payments experience makes transferring money just as easy as sending a message.
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Yes, and Munger’s definition of “paying up” was a lot cheaper than I think many realize. They paid 6x pretax earnings for Sees Candies, which was growing
Charlie Munger taught Buffett the power of buying a wonderful business at a fair price. It’s been the best path to long term riches. The current problem: everyone loves a “quality compounder” and it’s reflected in prices. That’s why we see better opportunities classic value.
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Much emphasis goes into finding hidden bargains, when some of the best bargains in some of the best companies are hiding in plain sight. Liquidity does not mean efficiently priced & fair values don't move by 50% (or $300 billion) in a few months. Large caps can get very mispriced
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Some thoughts on mean reversion and the Power Law; Four reasons why certain companies' size and profitability seem to defy capitalism's law of gravity:
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I'm not sure it was Warren or Todd/Ted who sold DAL/LUV, but I do think one of the most underrated qualities of WEB's investment prowess is his ability to change is mind when he realizes the situation has changed
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Turtle Creek is a really interesting counterpoint to the “let your winners run” concept. In theory I think what they do makes complete sense (portfolio rebalancing based on value; trim what got more expensive to buy more of what’s cheaper); but in practice I’ve rarely seen this
I love investors that invest differently than the norm that have incredible track records.
25 years at 20% compounded.
"We are continuously optimizing the portfolio (buying/selling)."
"We shoot our winners."
Turtle Creek Annual Meeting
Presentation:
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On investment ideas, the only thing that matters is the quality of the idea, not the novelty. In many areas of life, there is a direct link between originality and quality, but in investing, the two have a random relationship.
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New Post: Warren Buffett 1997 Email Exchange on Microsoft | Saber Capital Management $MSFT $FB $GOOG
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$BKNG outlining how paying employees with stock is an actual expense. So many companies talk about "FCF" and even net income that excludes this very real expense.
Bravo 👏
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Good thread. Imagine investing in a business that puts up these fundamental results: 25% eps growth for 8 years and you still lose 35% of your investment. Growth engine and P/E entry level are equally important.
It’s also amazing that MCD traded at 58 p/e in 1972 and 7 p/e a
1/ Now would be a good time to study the Nifty Fifty.
$MCD was the OG $CMG (kind of ironic since MCD used to own CMG) check out these annual growth rates:
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One of Buffett's most underrated skills is independent thought. He follows his common sense principles, but avoids the dogma that often plagues many investors. Great businesses make best investments, but he bought oil futures, silver, & bet on interest rates when odds made sense
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This website is really a goldmine. Transcripts of BRK meetings going back to 1994, interview archives, clips, and other Buffett information. Great work by CNBC.
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Probably the coolest chart I've seen in 2020. This is why Buffett says betting against America is a sucker's bet. So many hardships, but also so much resourcefulness and resilience in the past 6 months...
This is the most bullish chart in the world.
New business formations
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$GOOG showing off their operating leverage that has always existed but was often hidden. Expenses flattish + gross profits growing at a fast clip has created a lot of value. Result is ROIC at decade highs.
h/t
@theTIKR
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Klarman is generally bearish on stocks and Lynch generally bullish, and what’s interesting is their current view has largely been their view for the past 30 years. Klarman almost always negative on market and Lynch positive; yet both had success in stocks despite opposite macro
Seth Klarman and Peter Lynch on todays stock market environment
(thanks
@JRogrow
for the link)
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Each quarter JPM earns terrific ROE and NII growth and every quarter they come up with a litany of reasons why they won’t earn those returns going forward. Somewhat reminds me of Thiel’s classic “Monopolies are always telling you why they aren’t monopolies”
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Since $JPM announced Q2 earnings in July 2022 (when recession fears were near their peak), the stock is up 90% with dividends. More than double the SPY, and better than 5 of the Magificent 7.
I'm cherry picking this of course, but I thought it was a nice example (just one of
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Back in June I did a presentation on Tencent for
@manualofideas
. Here are my slides on $TCEHY:
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Looking at some of Buffett's past stock investments to see what he paid (rarely more than 10 P/E, almost never more than 15)
Came across this Fortune piece on Freddie Mac I hadn't seen before. WB paid under 8 P/E and liked that growth & P/E expansion were both likely tailwinds.
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I like the Nick Sleep chapter in Richer, Wiser, Happier. Interesting to read about his evolution from a (very successful) bargain hunter to an extreme focus on quality and a select few types of business models (specifically those w/ cost advantages that get shared with customers)
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$GOOG's EV/EBIT (17x) is a 9 year low;
(not a comparable, but just an interesting observation: $PG's 22x is basically at a 10 year high):
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One of the best interviews with Munger that I’ve seen in a while. Really interesting to hear his perspective from his early days in business and his experiences running his partnership.
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$GOOG demonstrating the profitability potential of their core business with even just modest cost discipline:
Google Services operating margin of 40% with a whopping 74% incremental profit margin in Q1
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Interesting data: we know most returns in near term are changes in valuation but this shows how important starting valuation is even with a period as long as 10 years.
Makes sense as P/E that doubles in 10 years is a 7% per year tailwind; P/E that halves is a 7% per yr headwind
Below Alliance Bernstein shows that 80% of all ten-baggers were profitable and traded at a NTM P/E of 14-17x.
Now Bank of America showing that 80% of a stocks long-term return is driven by the STARTING (GOING IN) valuation. Buffett knows this and pays less than 15x forward...
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I actually think the boom in SPACs is going to be a great thing for public market investors. All this new supply of stock will be a problem in the next downturn, but then there will be opportunities to invest in a variety of quality companies that wouldn’t otherwise be public yet
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Terry Smith's letter is one of my favorites. Simple common sense way of allocating capital. If you're a long term investor, it's important to keep in mind that as long as you follow his rule
#2
(Don't overpay), the portfolio will return what the businesses return over time
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Like FANG, $MA $V $SPGI $MCO have been perennial bargains in plain sight. Pretty amazing.
28% CAGR over 10 years, and as
@LibertyRPF
points out in his latest newsletter, this isn't cherry picking an entry point. Could have invested at many different periods & had similar results
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A common theme of Buffett’s investments (esp recently) is high FCF yields accompanied by buybacks and dividends. Seems to prefer buybacks/divs vs reinvestment co’s; I wonder if it is b/c he likes certainty. He knows he’s going to get the 14% FCF yield here
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A great description of how big the opportunity cost of time is; and how important it is to avoid distractions and get in that extra hour of deep work, day after day. Doesn't seem too important on any given day, but it compounds.
via
@andy_matuschak
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He’s called “Canada’s Warren Buffett”. His investment approach seems more focused on stitching together businesses when he could buy them on the cheap: “I didn’t know what goodwill was for a long time”.
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Seth Klarman did not seem (in the late 80's) to be a buy and hold investor; we know he was more similar to Ben Graham and Walter Schloss (and early Warren Buffett), but these comments offer some dissonance vs modern accepted portfolio approach.
From Margin of Safety:
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This is a great point. I created a faux Shopify business last year just to get to know their products better, and the first thing they emailed me was a mini-course on how to advertise on Facebook and Instagram. SHOP is an incredible business, but it's also a farm team for FB
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It's a great point; counterintuitive in a way, but true. ROIC's are surprisingly persistent. Good businesses tend to keep being good. FT piece mentioned Nick Sleep's COST & AMZN buys in 2004. As a smart investor told me; keeping it is more impressive than the original purchase
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Wells Fargo got Fed approval to buy back $23.1 billion over the coming 12 months, which is ~11% of its shares at current price. Including the 4.3% dividend, it's a 15% total "yield" at the current price. All of the big four banks have double digit total yields: $WFC $BAC $C $JPM
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Jamie Dimon is really on his A-game for this morning's $JPM call. "I wish I could take this company private and just own the whole thing" 😂
One of the few earnings calls I'd rather listen to than read
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Charlie says he's never heard an intelligent discussion on cost of capital, and while we may not know precisely what it is, the 10-Q reminds me each quarter that it is very, very low at Berkshire.
$BRK.B
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From my non-genius viewpoint, I'd say this is spot on. I've also found practicing patience & playing the long game is the best approach for most of life's challenging/rewarding endeavors: marriage, kids, exercise, running a business & of course investing.
Merry Christmas to all!
Starting to think that what looks like genius is often just patience and long time horizons.
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Buffett prioritizes capital returns (buybacks and dividends) with his stocks. He passes on most reinvestment/growth engines in favor of the buyback engines. In this case, he cites two things that are common with so many of his stocks:
1) low P/E
2) clearly defined capital policy
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One of the coolest pictures of all time: “Everyone in the world except Michael Collins”. Shows Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin descending in the Lunar Module, with every other human (past and present) somewhere inside the frame of the photo. What a moment. h/t
@LibertyRPF
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More notes on big tech earnings quality, GAAP and FCF.
Asset growth at these companies has been so extreme & so recent (PP&E up 3x in 5 yrs) that I'm not sure it's fully appreciated. Great businesses, but $200b of annual capex is likely a headwind to ROICs:
One counterpoint to this idea that intangible investments are causing GAAP earnings to be understated at companies like $MSFT...
Their capex is far greater than their D&A currently (e.g. MSFT D&A is ~15b but they will spend 50b+ on capex this year).
So perhaps the R&D spend
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Here is Saber Capital's annual letter that I sent to my investors last week:
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Wow, what a difference 10 years makes. $AAPL and Oil were in the too hard pile, and now they are his two largest positions!
Great lessons: learning never stops; and be open to changing your mind
(h/t a good friend for pointing this clip out to me)
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I thought the advice that Henry Kravis gave to young people in this talk is really applicable to investors of all ages: Be curious, get out of your comfort zone, and give back. One other takeaway: “Get off the computer and go talk to people.” $KKR
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Dirt’s a special investor, doing what Buffett said he could do with small sums: make 50%/yr. I’m lucky that he’s a new friend and I can attest those results were achieved not through luck or excess risk but through sound thinking and good old fashioned Ben Graham bargain hunting
2023 performance: +50.24%
CAGR since inception (July 2019): 58.01%
This pace is not sustainable. It has only been possible because of my small size and help from people much smarter than me.
A few highlights from this year...
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$GOOG has (maybe deservedly) gotten a lot of criticism over the years for its capital allocation policies. But can anyone name one other company that actually increased the pace of buybacks in March? Given the changes at the top, I think we'll slowly start to see more of this
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@patrick_oshag
Ecclesiastes in the Old Testament is a great book that’s full of wisdom & perspective on attitude, behavior, fulfillment, regret minimization and it even touches on business & investing. Don’t need to be a Christian to get value from it. Can be read in an hour. Provokes thinking
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WFC's total yield is 16%. The bank still earns 1.3% on assets, ~on par or better than its competitors. It bought 9% of its shares last year, and can buy 11% this year at current price, which means 8 P/E at current earnings level. Not all boring ideas turn out to be boring 😀
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Nice summary of the long-term returns for SaaS stocks. They all seem (and always have seemed) crazy expensive to me, and yet the returns over the past decade have been incredible...
History of Public SaaS Returns and Valuations by
@afc
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New Post: The Coffee Can Edge
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0 to 500m in his personal account 👀 (his salary was $100k with no options). There’s a quote in Lowenstein’s book where someone in the 70’s said something like: he made so much money so fast in his PA it was unbelievable.
Special situations, extreme mispriced, even commodities
Warren Buffett went from $0 to $500MM in 30 years.
This is excluding Berkshire. He did it with basically zero contributions.
It was stuff like:
Delta Duck Club
Bayuk Cigars (
@turtlebay_io
had a great piece on this)
Mid-Continent Tab Card
Korean stocks
Wish I knew them all.
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Updated my top 10 mega-cap chart w/market value changes in last year. It's always interesting to me that each year, the avg gap between the high/low is 40%+, even for the most followed companies in the world. Sometimes even mega-caps get mispriced, leaving bargains in plain sight
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FANG P/S multiples haven’t changed that much; never traded at expensive levels. $GOOG is a top 5 business of all time and traded at 8x ntm sales at IPO. Not saying stocks can’t be undervalued at 50-60x (a select few probably are); just interesting that FANG never had that hurdle
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I was looking for something in my notes and came across this clip from Munger talking about Nat. Cash Register and finding long runways:
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Apple has paid out $432 billion with $100 billion excess cash still in the bank. Combined, this cash approximates the entire market value of Berkshire Hathaway. The free cash flow this company makes is a bit mind-numbing.
(h/t
@benedictevans
and his excellent newsletter)
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Other than Druckenmiller or Munger, I️ have more fun listening to Steve Eisman talk about investing more than just about anyone else. He’s a rare independent thinker
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Copart likes to reference how only 5% of accidents were totaled 40 years ago and that has climbed to 20% today. That has been the biggest tailwind in salvage. And it seems likely that this ratio only keeps climbing as complexity of cars increases
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The beauty of not having to hit yearly growth targets. Beal Bank asset growth went nowhere for a decade, then quadruped in just over a year. Other than BRK, what companies are run this way (willing to shrink business when there aren’t good opportunities)?
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..."the dot-com crash wiped 99% off of SoftBank's market cap and close to 90% of Son's net worth."
Munger questions your fortitude if you're not willing to go down 50%. But 50% down requires "only" a 100% comeback. Down 99%? You need a 100-bagger (which incredibly, Son got!)
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I sent a note to investors this week called "The Most Important Moat", based on a short talk I gave in Omaha:
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@MikeHunt1882
@LiviamCapital
I become more and more convinced over the years that there is little to no correlation with “non-consensus” and alpha. And I sometimes wonder if there is an inverse correlation. Ironically, this is probably my most closely held non-consensus view
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Here are a few topics I was thinking about after reviewing my notes from BRK: (
@TheSovaGroup
has some great thoughts on these topics also)
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