Colin King
@valuedontlie
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All value. No advice | Stock Newsletter https://t.co/9pEi00XIOe | Profit tools @profitmastery | HoldCo https://t.co/SMAxPD6QVx
Joined July 2014
Also, it’s no wonder these conglomerates are breaking up… look how many standalone businesses are in here…
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File this one away… The market cannot look past declining assets/businesses, even if highly profitable or cash generative or insanely cheap Stocks follow earnings MRNA suffering through this now
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Just a reminder that moats are entirely subjective
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$CMCSA Versant spin docs filed (timing is yearend 2025). It will almost certainly get a "melting ice cube" multiple. 1) Revenue declining at 5% 2) EBITDA declining 8% 3) Subs declining 8% 4) $2.25bn net debt EBITDA was $4.4bn in 2019 and now ~$2.7bn. At 5x = $13.5bn EV less
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Got me looking at some ideas with high F-Scores... a few interesting names on the list
First time seeing a deal mentioning the Piotroski F-Score (a personal fav)...
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How many of your holdings track performance using GAAP results? No stock comp add-backs, no restructuring add-backs, not even intangible amortization...
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First time seeing a deal mentioning the Piotroski F-Score (a personal fav)...
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$LEG Wrote off >$1bn from bedding products segment in 2023-2024... guessing this was mostly/entirely related to their 2019 acquisition of ECS for $1.25bn Ouch. Funded ~entirely with debt which essentially left the company where they are today (i.e. down from $40-50 to $9)
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Finished the new Malone book... appreciating the frequency and magnitude of JVs, partnerships, and minority deals throughout his career... even the notion of "teaming up" on acquisitions to carve up pieces... don't see this as often in companies today?
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$PTLO https://t.co/UXF8IAabf5
$PTLO quick value I'm more of a skeptic on the idea for now, but open to other views... 1) Fast-casual restaurant chain with casual-dining unit economics (huge AUVs and decent restaurant margins) 2) PE owned from 2014 until IPO in 2021 - shares down >80% since then 3) AUVs
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It's October... what's your favorite horror movie? Some on my list: it follows black phone the thing hereditary the babadook terrifier (these are just nuts) 28 days/weeks/years barbarian the descent get out/us/nope What else you got?
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$PHIN also has a structural tax disadvantage to global auto peers which they think they can chip away over next few years
Interesting pitch on $PHIN by Voss Capital Misinterpreted by the market as a vulnerable, cyclical OEM supplier at the whim of government policy. Trades at 5.5x fwd EBITDA, cheap on both an absolute and relative basis. Well aligned management consistently buying back stock.
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Does anyone prefer these longer format quick value recap posts? Recent ones: $PTLO https://t.co/UXF8IAabf5 $AXTA https://t.co/FmJQ7wU671 $NATL https://t.co/632K3fPe1N $PBI https://t.co/HqRTmI9Y7L
Finally got around to reviewing $PBI... more interesting than I thought... 1) An "everything" special sit - activist, mgmt change, GoodCo/BadCo, divestiture, early innings capital allocation inflection, and dash of public LBO 2) Exited money-losing segment in 2024 paving way
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Thinking another live stream tonight… have a backlog of names needing to get processed on the watchlist and 1-2 ideas to review
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Bull case
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$ATNI ending 3yr capex cycle... BOD recently increased dividend by 15% (yield now ~7.4%)... FCF inflecting, now ~$39m or 20% FCF yield Hmm...
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Atkore International (ATKR) provides an update on planned strategic actions being taken to strengthen and improve the future financial returns for the Company Anyone still following $ATKR? CEO change + strategic review
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