Haseeb ＞|＜
@hosseeb
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Managing partner @dragonfly_xyz . Formerly Metastable, @Airbnb , @earndotcom . Effective Altruist. Writer. Former poker pro. One always finds one's burden again.
San Francisco, CA
Joined December 2010
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1/ Blockchains are not networks—they're cities. 🏙️
This simple mental model will help you understand why the L1 wars are evolving the way they are.
New blog post + short 🧵
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Don't "work harder." Instead:
Cut away distractions.
Stop doing fake work.
Ask for help.
Plan.
Solicit criticism.
Automate what can be automated.
Engage your mentors.
Exercise.
Get more sleep.
Whatever you do, don't "work harder." It's pretty much never the answer.
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4 Lessons on losing lots of money (from someone who has done so many times) 👇
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Join
@naval
and I for a discussion on the Smart Contract L1 Wars, featuring
@aeyakovenko
,
@el33th4xor
, and
@ilblackdragon
, the founders of SOL, AVAX, and NEAR respectively.
Mark your calendar and come prepared to learn: this Friday at 3PM PT/6PM ET.
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Yesterday I freaked out about the revelation that
@Ledger
could spit out your private key with a firmware update.
Yet I noticed the smartest people were not freaking out. Was I missing something?
I spent the evening educating myself, and now I'm in the "nvm it's fine" camp.
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L2s are the future of Ethereum, but each L2 has a different vision of that future.
Join
@naval
and I next week for a discussion with the four leaders in rollups:
@sgoldfed
,
@gluk64
,
@EliBenSasson
,
@karl_dot_tech
(Arbitrum, ZK Sync, Starkware, Optimism)
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Your school, your grades, and the companies you've worked for are all just credentials. I keep meeting young people who spend their lives accruing them like brownie points.
Credentials are overrated. Just build valuable things. Accomplishment is the only credential that counts.
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1. Human beings are resilient. We habituate surprisingly fast.
When you lose it all, the first night feels hopeless. The next day feels gloomy. The next week feels manageable. The next month, you forget that you even lost it.
You'll be OK, I promise.
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1/ Pouring one out for all those who were impacted by the FTX collapse. If you lost more money than you can afford, I'm so sorry.
I promise it will get better.
I'm exhausted.
Have been thinking a lot about what happens from here, and what it means for this industry.
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2. There are no free lunches. Any time you think you found a way to make easy money, you're probably missing something.
Edges are continually earned through hard work, and the universe will teach you that the hard way.
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4. You build real wealth by doing something you love. Because if you don't love it, you'll give up too early.
Crypto has almost died too many times to count (). I know many people who came in early, but lost confidence and left.
YGMI! I mean it ♥️
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3. Everything compounds. When you lose your money, you are left with your skills and your knowledge, and those only grow.
So much of my knowledge and experience comes from my past failures. Someone failing for the first time doesn't stand a chance. 🙃
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Ethereum Classic ($ETC) was 51% attacked yesterday. This is the largest cryptocurrency that has ever been 51% attacked, and it has really interesting implications for the future of PoW currencies. Thread. 👇
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ICYMI,
@naval
and I sat down to chat with
@aeyakovenko
,
@el33th4xor
, and
@ilblackdragon
, the founders of Solana, Avalanche, and NEAR and deconstruct the L1 wars:
* different paths to scaling
* how they approach the EVM
* pros and cons of each chain
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Prices are getting reset, but remember, crypto is technology. That means it only ever improves.
What will smart contracts, DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, and crypto gaming look like in 5 years?
The tourists may leave. But these concepts are now permanent.
The work continues.
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A snapshot of DeFi hacks since 2020. Notice the transition from yellow to blue (Ethereum => BSC).
Credit
@FrankResearcher
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I gave $ADA a lot of shit & they gave it right back, but after asking some questions I'm impressed at the seriousness of many ppl in the community. There's real passion there.
I shouldn't have said Cardano is all religion and no tech. It was a mean thing to say. I'm sorry.♥️
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There's only one cheatcode I've ever learned in building a career: start a blog.
When I tell young people this, they ask: but what should I write about?
Simple: whatever you wish other people wrote about.
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I didn't understand when I was young: almost all the returns in life come from specialization. School teaches you you're supposed to be good at every subject. But it pays exponentially more to be the top 0.1% at 1 thing than to be the top 1% of many things.
Focus, focus, focus.
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Every two years like clockwork there's a new acronym in crypto:
2017: ICOs
2019: DeFi
2021: NFTs
2023: ???
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🦄 Uniswap v3 just dropped.
It contains some huge ideas—I remember hearing about them from Hayden back in early 2020. Now they’re finally public!
These are my first reactions for the effects v3 will have on Uniswap's future. Rough takes right now, but here's a thread. 👇
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Crypto is ultimately a get rich slow industry. All the people who succeed discover the technology, buy it, use it, and stay quiet.
The trap is that crypto's most charismatic spokespeople are hyperleveraged monkeys. Every cycle.
Remember this for next time.
(Most won't.)
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1/ I’m excited to announce that
@dragonfly_xyz
has made a strategic investment into
@AptosLabs
!
Aptos is building a next generation L1 blockchain with a unique take on scalability, safety, and usability—here’s why I’m excited to partner with them:
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Crashes are painful. But in 2018 I was worried that everything in crypto might be worthless, a flash in the pan.
This time I'm not worried. It sucks to be down, but crypto is unequivocally here to stay.
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10/ Because DeFi renders these kinds of frauds impossible.
Uniswap, MakerDAO, and Compound all worked and processed every trade and withdrawal. It is impossible for them to defraud anyone—it's in the code.
Thus the motto of crypto: don't trust, verify. Not humans, but code.
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So much of a crypto VC's job is to allow young people to change your mind.
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Gm anons!
We're launching Dragonfly Fund III, a $650M crypto venture fund—our largest fund ever.
With this new fund, we'll be be backing founders all across their lifecycle in crypto.
Excited to be a small part of the next chapter of this industry.
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Stop waiting for a mentor.
I clung to this fantasy for a long time.
But no one is going to show up and save you from your insecurities.
I always assumed that unless someone took me under their wing and showed me the path to success, I wouldn't have a chance. (1/2)
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All the major play-to-earn economies hit recessions. The in-game currencies have all gotten crushed due to supply/demand imbalances.
(SLP = Axie Infinity, Town = Town Star / Gala Games, THC = Thetan Arena)
We need better models for P2E to be sustainable.
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1/ Algorithmic stablecoins have exploded over the past year: Dai, FEI, ESD, Basis Cash.
But fewer and fewer people actually understand how these stablecoins work.
So I made a simple visual explanation of the major algorithmic stablecoins. Check👇
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Don’t trust, verify: An Overview of Decentralized AI Inference
Say you want to run a large language model like Llama2-70B. A model this massive requires more than 140GB of memory, which means you can’t run the raw model on your home machine. What are your options? You might jump…
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The bright side of the LUNA collapse: it's taught a generation of crypto investors that it's important to understand how these protocols actually work under the hood.
👏Read👏the👏white👏paper.
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Today we released the AMM Test: a no BS Look at L1 Performance.
Research piece benchmarking L1 performance across the EVMs and Solana. If you want to know how fast the L1s *really* are, read on for the (surprising) details 👇 🧵
(By me and
@0xsudogm
)
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Protip: mentors matter less than you think. It's great to surround yourself with people smarter than you, but the real work you have to do by yourself.
Roll up your sleeves, block out an evening, read, write, and build.
Most of the true learning happens alone.
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Wow. really went from crypto darling to desertion in about 4 months.
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1/ I’m launching a free course: Introduction to Cryptocurrency, teaching how cryptocurrencies work from the ground up. If you want to learn more about what makes cryptocurrencies tick, this course is for you.
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Stanford Blockchain Conference is consistently the highest signal-to-noise gathering in crypto.
The concentration of brilliant people makes it hard not to be excited for the future.
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Crypto is all about the magic of combining opposites.
Capitalism <> Collectivism
Individuals <> Networks
Private ownership <> Public goods
Art <> Algorithms
Technology <> Religion
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16/ No metaphor is perfect. But this model makes 6 predictions:
1. The future is multi-chain
2. Ethereum will be the most valuable
3. L1s will differentiate
4. L2s matter, but they're not enough
5. Application-specific blockchains will be niche
6. Bridges will be valuable
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/1 The AI era is upon us. GPT-3 makes it clear: we will achieve AGI in our lifetimes.
Crypto will have a big role to play in this.
Why? Because crypto changes the API of money, decoupling *money* from *people*.
In the age of AI, this will matter more than ever. 🧵 👇
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Excited to announce that we're launching Dragonfly Fund II, a $225M venture fund to back the next generation of crypto entrepreneurs.
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Just dropped part 1 of a new podcast:
@naval
and I ask
@VitalikButerin
all the questions you had about Ethereum but were too afraid to ask.
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Just read through the SEC case against Do Kwon/Terraform Labs so you don't have to.
A few takeaways:
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OK, I'll summarize
@Galois_Capital
's arguments:
1) If merge succeeds, ETH1 will continue to exist because of support from miners. DeFi, exchanges, devs need to deal with it. Acknowledging this fork is taboo in Ethereum-land.
2) The merge has a nonzero chance of failure.
Done.
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This is insane. The lendf/dForce hacker is in the process of returning all the hacked funds to the admin:
$10M of ETH
$6.6M of USDT
$2.2M of HBTC
$750K of USDC
$381K of HUSD
$137K of DAI
$132K of MKR
$126K of PAX
Grand total of just over $20M.
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It's hard to be bearish after witnessing the energy at Consensus. Macro's gonna macro, but there are so many brilliant people hard at work in web3, a ton of problems will be solved over the next couple of years.
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Alpha: how the biggest L1s compare on developers 👇
ETH >>> DOT > ATOM > SOL > BTC > NEAR > BSC > MATIC > AVAX > XTZ > everyone else
h/t
@ElectricCapital
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Guys, rollups are a big deal. They're supposed to be the future of Ethereum scaling. But I'm worried nobody is going to actually care about them after they launch.
Wrote up my thoughts. 👇
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Looks increasingly likely that speaker of the house is going to be pro-crypto.
Metaculus places Patrick McHenry and Tom Emmer as frontrunners.
🚨BREAKING -- KEVIN MCCARTHY is endorsing TOM EMMER for speaker.
"He is the right person for the job. He can unite the conference. He understands the dynamics of the conference. He also understands what it takes to win and keep a majority."
w
@bresreports
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When I first got into crypto full-time in 2017, I worried I was already too late. All the important problems seemed solved. So much had already been done. Everyone had been doing this for years, and there was a knowledge gap I could never catch up to.
That was 6 years ago now.…
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EOS, which the SEC sued in 2019, settled its lawsuit without registering as a security. That seems to imply the SEC thought it was no longer one and need not register.
And yet the SEC thinks that SOL, ADA, NEAR, and ATOM are *currently* securities.
Am I missing something?
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Looking back more than a year later, how useful was the Uniswap airdrop?
Great analysis by
@jphackworth42
on the
@DuneAnalytics
blog.
TL;DR: almost no airdroppers still hold, they do minimal trading volume, and they don't participate in governance. 👇
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Grayscale wins, GBTC will be converted into an ETF. 🎉
U.S. Court of Appeals struck down the SEC's denial of a BTC spot ETF case as arbitrary and capricious.
Big day for the industry—expect a flurry of approvals now that the floodgates have opened!
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What are the most successful brand associations in crypto history?
My nominations:
Uniswap => AMMs
Solana => High performance chain
Celestia => Modularity
Eigenlayer => Restaking
Cosmos => Application-specific blockchains
ENS => Decentralized naming
Flashbots => MEV
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Don't think I've ever seen more divergence between price action and lived experience in crypto.
Builders are feeling gloomy, venture scene is quiet, everything consumer-facing is struggling. But prices and regulatory outlook are rebounding.
Tale of two cities.
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While nobody was paying attention,
@MakerDAO
has continued its shift away from reliance on USDC. DAI went from >50% USDC in early October to now below 30%.
h/t
@nanexcool
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Uniswap is today the largest DEX in DeFi, and trades more volume than most centralized exchanges. But I believe that it's inevitable that Uniswap is going to be unbundled.
Here's what I believe the future of on-chain market making will look like:
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1/ With $AVAX Rush program just announced ($180M in DeFi incentives), we're now going to see a true cross-chain explosion in DeFi. Not just "EVM sidechains", but fully fledged blockchains like AVA.
That's why I'm really excited about
@benqifinance
👇
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Ethereum NFT dominance has completely disappeared this year.
Really striking to see laid out like this. Goes to show how little you can take for granted in this industry.
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VCs who are investing in memecoins: what are you telling your LPs?
(Bonus points if you're not telling them)
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FTX reminded us of the failures of centralization. Yes, we need regulation, but even moreso we need innovation.
Proud to announce we seeded
@renegade_fi
, an on-chain dark pool that uses ZKPs and MPC to build a truly anonymized decentralized exchange.
The future is trustless. 👇
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Ethereum is now unforkable, thanks to DeFi: why there will never be another ETC-like fork.
A new Dragonfly research piece by
@Lsquaredleland
and myself. As DeFi becomes increasingly important, this has big implications for smart contract platforms.
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I'm increasingly convinced that the *core thing* about crypto is not it's decentralized, but that it's permissionless.
Decentralization is one means to that end.
This conceptual shift helps explain a lot about what's working and not working in crypto today.
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Time to PMF for enterprise software companies.
If you're doing something hard, takes longer than you think.
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Curate your information diet.
Eliminate feeds.
Aggressively unsubscribe.
Close tabs you know you won't read.
Most news is unimportant—ignore it.
Outsource curation e.g. newsletters.
Don't just react to your inbox.
In the information age, this is where your edge comes from.
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The older I've gotten I've realized there's an ability few people have in business: Saying what you actually think.
Disagree? Say it. Someone's off-base? Call it out privately. Lost or confused? Admit it.
Quietly blending in isn't strategic; it's just fear. Telling the truth…
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12/ And the core sin in all religion is to make idols of men. That seems to be what happened with Sam.
But tonight, I'm thinking of Satoshi. He started anonymous and remained so until he disappeared. Because Satoshi knew crypto had to be bigger than any single person.
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How I recommend crypto podcasts:
Newbie:
@laurashin
's
@Unchained_pod
Acolyte:
@mrjasonchoi
's
@theBlockcrunch
,
@zhusu
and
@hasufl
's
@UCCPodcast
Advanced:
@epicenterbtc
(consortium podcast)
Galaxy brain:
@AnnaRRose
's
@zeroknowledgefm
,
@Gentso09
's
@BlockDebate
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I've met many billionaires, and in reality, their lives are not that different from yours.
They might go home to a bigger fancier house, but inside that house they are staring at the same screens, getting into the same arguments, and consuming the same content that you are.
"After first 2-3 millions, a paid off home and a good car, there is no difference in qualify of life between you and Jeff Bezos"
Agree or disagree?
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For the first 30 years of my life, I was ashamed at being a procrastinator. I saw it as a moral failing. That if I just found the right productivity hack, I could fix myself.
Somehow in the last couple of years, I stopped feeling bad. I just work around my procrastination, and…
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This weekend we all witnessed how a culture war is born.
E/accs now have their original sin they can point back to. This will become the new thing that people feel compelled to take a side on--e/acc vs decel--and nuance or middle ground will be punished.
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Crypto is rightist: self-sovereignty, censorship-resistance, freedom, money.
Web3 is leftist: democratizing the web, community ownership, empowering creators.
They are the yin and yang of what makes crypto crypto. It's just when crypto went mainstream, the web3 side showed up.
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ICYMI:
@naval
and I hosted a discussion with the leading rollup founders,
@sgoldfed
,
@karl_dot_tech
,
@EliBenSasson
, and
@gluk64
of Arbitrum, Optimism, Starkware, ZKSync.
It got heated at times 🔥, but a deep discussion on the pros and cons of OR vs ZKR.
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This is really cool.
@StaniKulechov
from
@AaveAave
is currently pitching MakerDAO on lending directly to AAVE so they can make Dai loans. Makes AAVE like a commercial bank on top of MakerDAO's central bank.
"DeFi is speedrunning traditional finance."
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There's no concept of chargebacks in crypto. All payments are final. It turns out, this is a really important feature of cryptocurrencies. And it has deep implications for its financial applications.
I sketch out the argument my newest blog post:
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1/ I’ve been informed by multiple sources that China's BSN is going to be integrating with public blockchains, the first of which are
@ethereum
and
@NervosNetwork
. This is kind of a big deal. Thread. 👇
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I'm excited to announce that I am doing pretty much the same shit I've been doing for the last 5 years.
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2021: +14,505%
2022: -100.0%
Why did Terra grow to such dizzying heights, and why did it finally collapse?
I wrote a short data-driven history of the entire UST saga. Originally wrote it for LPs, but thought it'd be interesting to a wider audience.
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DeFi TVL is now sitting at $42B, a 2.5 year low, below even when FTX collapsed.
The naive response is that this is bearish. But that's not necessarily true.
There are two reasons why this TVL downturn is not a big deal IMO. 👇
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Every year at
@dragonfly_xyz
we do a retro on the biggest lessons of the year. This year we came up with the top 10 lessons that we wanted to take away as venture investors in 2023.
I thought it might be useful to share them. Here are the 10 lessons in order: 👇
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The important point is: every major hardware wallet works this way.
That said, Ledger did some terrible corporate comms and freaked everyone out.
But the more I reflect on this, the main reason was people don't understand how hardware wallets actually work (myself included).
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Double spends only work if you don't expect retaliation, and exchanges are better capitalized than attackers. It's a kind of mutually assured destruction. If you attack me, I'll get you back.
An ounce of prevention and so on.
It's a wacky idea, but hey, it's crypto, right? FIN
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Why are so many projects on Solana closed source? I don't mean this as a dunk—serious question.
Is it security concerns? Fear of forks? Something else? If security concerns, why primarily on Solana, is it something about the programming model?
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I'm finding it hard to explain to LPs why all the coins are going up.
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When someone writes the crypto history book on this, they should call this chapter "The Reign of Terra" ✍️
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Why I think liquidity mining is an innovation in capital formation, and yet right now it's mostly wasted:
Fun conversation with
@DeFi_Dad
on the inaugural episode of
@zapper_fi
TV.
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School teaches young people the illusion that you get success in life through hard work.
That's wrong.
Much more important than working hard is working on the right thing.
It's always amazing to me how little of school is dedicated to learning how to pick what to work on.
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New research: DeFi cannibalizes PoS security!
Turns out, there's a deep and intrinsic tension between PoS consensus and on-chain lending markets. TL;DR below. 👇1/7
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