Domer
@Domahhhh
Followers
4,994
Following
774
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Statuses
2,267
Full-time political bettor since 2007. I don't tweet much, and we're all better off for it.
Joined January 2018
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
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Pinned Tweet
If you're interested in betting on anything as a serious endeavor, a few recommended reads:
-Thinking, Fast and Slow
-Intelligent Investor Ch 8
-Fortune's Formula
-Cracking the Code -
-Deep Value
-Big Short/Moneyball
-When Genius Failed
-Superforecasting
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It begins. Got a sizable 2024 bet in the books: my $260k to GCR's $200k on whether Trump is the GOP presidential nominee.
I've got the FIELD; GCR is betting on TRUMP.
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@nfr_podcast
I know very little about rap. As an observer: Drake's was funnier and a great first shot. Kendrick's was overall much better and Drake should probably let it end here lol.
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A user on Polymarket has lost around $100k so far betting that Trump will be reinstated as President.
BUT he just hit a huge ~$13k payday today with the Hunter Biden indictment! Nice***!
***he promptly reinvested most of the profits into Trump being reinstated in September 🙃🙃
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@EmeraldRobinson
@FoxNews
I love it !!!
#foxit
should be trending. Bless you Emerald, you have a loyal Newsmax watcher here . . .
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Biggest rule fight in the history of Polymarket is brewing, and will come to a head in the next few hours.
The Ethereum ETF market has $11m in volume. The market is 5x larger than the previous biggest rules fight (the missing submarine being located). That disparity will only
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Seems like an opportune time to write a little bit about some bad stuff that happens on prediction markets, including a recently unearthed scam that was aimed directly at my face.
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@joshrogin
@elonmusk
@ianbremmer
I'd put it at around a 96%-98% chance that Bremmer is the liar here.
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@EmeraldRobinson
@newsmax
YES!!! Now we need
@realDonaldTrump
to call into THIS show in his second term, instead of Fox & Friends. Because we are DONE with Fox News forever
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The best-yielding bonds on planet earth -- with 16+% annualized returns and lower risk than t-bills -- are on
@PolymarketHQ
.
QAnon is sending their highest-level intellectuals to buy this crapola on a nearly daily basis.
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Buckle up,
@Polymarket
just launched what is likely (imho) to be the biggest prediction market ever: winner of 2024 election.
Will probably push for $1b in volume, toppling PredictIt & Betfair for
#1
.
Can already get hundreds of thousands of shares near midpoint (like RFK Jr).
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Markets like this are what make prediction markets so fun and hilarious.
Sam Altman to return as CEO of OpenAI has gone from 3% likelihood on
@Polymarket
to a 90% likelihood back to a 3% likelihood and now back to a 33% chance.
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Trump is up to 55c to be the next President on Polymarket after two traders bought almost 2 million shares combined.
We could be in for a market where Trump's price is permanently a few cents higher on Poly vs elsewhere due to highly caffeinated crypto bros.
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OUT: Getting 5% annual yield from TreasuryDirect as long as the US Govt doesn't fail.
IN: Getting 13% annual yield from Polymarket as long as Bitcoin doesn't 40x to a $19 trillion market cap.
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@mlcalderone
@gabrielsherman
Jeesh, you had me for a second with this story.
Then I saw Gabriel Sherman wrote it, and that it is basically just dressed-up gossip.
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I managed to cross the $1m mark in volume on Polymarket in June.
Prediction markets are MUCH bigger than they were a few years ago, but still have tons of room to grow. 👍
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That CONSTITUTION auction, and the few minutes of uncertainty are an all-time great prediction market moment.
The LOSING side went to 99.9%, for YES, because the winner was misreported.
Was able to get shares of the winning side at 700-1 odds during the commotion.
After an aggressive start the odds of
@ConstitutionDAO
winning have flipped to 50/50.
Nail biter.
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@EmeraldRobinson
I long ago switched from CNN to Fox News, I was tired of the libral agenda and promoting all sorts of things I did not like or agree with. Now I have switched again !!! This time to NewsMax and hopefully this is my last switch. I love NEWSMAX
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Welp. Dark day.
CFTC racks up another kill of a prediction market, and shanks PredictIt in broad daylight.
FYI, guessing people will panic about their funds. My educated guess is they're 99.99% safe, and panic is unwarranted.
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Polymarket is becoming subject to a novel attack on prediction markets: the resolution attack.
Manifests itself in a couple ways:
(1) disputing clear resolutions
(2) resolving markets early
And scarily often successful due to UMA.
Two ABSURD examples & funny plot twist:
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Milestone brag. Just correctly predicted Facebook would change its name to Meta and made $1k on that market on
@PolymarketHQ
.
And I just crossed $100k profit on the site. All of my bets are catalogued here:
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Definitely have no idea what I'm doing, but nonetheless I'm betting a lot that SBF gets sentenced to ~30 years, give or take 5 years in the next few minutes.
Think if I'm wrong, it's because of leniency rather than punititiveness.
If I'm REALLY wrong, he gets 40+ years or
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Super interesting to me that some of the most informed & important coronavirus predictions are happening in markets on the blockchain -- on a site 99.9% of Americans have never heard of,
@PolymarketHQ
.
People are researching these topics in-depth and putting sizable $$$ bets in.
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@EmeraldRobinson
A Great President -- I like to think and I tell people that JFK would be a Republican if he was alive today. He would have nothing to do with these liberal banshees as they exist Today.
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Don't mind me, just throwing out $10k on Aaron Rodgers being RFK's VP lol.
If this loses, no one tell the wife please. Thank you.
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@EmeraldRobinson
@FoxNews
Fox News is the new MSNBC they care about there Dem viewers than they do loyal Republicans. It's a JOKE and not a funny one.
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One final thought: a lot of fraudsters are smart people & profitable traders. Greed gets the best of them; they want short cuts to make money.
An important facet of a functional market -- that PI never implemented but the real-life stock market does -- is to exile these folks.
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Busy little bee in July, cracked $1m again in volume!
The active market to kick off Aug is the superconductor; price has gone from 20c to 55c in past 24h.
I now own 12k shares of NO & hired a team of fiver scientists to explain to me what a superconductor is before I bet more.
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About $300k of that volume is a trade with me. Sorry, not sorry.
I do think all of the markets are tasteful and important, but I understand the concept is not acceptable to some!
If anyone here wants to feel slightly better about themselves, a group of problem gamblers have bet a total of $478,599 on various aspects of the current Israel–Hamas war.
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January 2021 is my most active month of trading ever on PredictIt (903k shares traded) and my most profitable by....[puts on glasses and squints at the pivot table]....a factor of 2.
And it's only January 14th!
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In exciting news, Polymarket is exploding in growth, and I've crossed the $10m mark in trading this month.
In less exciting news, the P&L calculations are borked, and the more I trade, the more it thinks I am losing.
Currently in the hole for 37 Toyota Camrys worth of losses.
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Huge trading month for me at
@Polymarket
. Provided a ton of liq to the Israel/Palestine markets that have done beaucoup volume. Some big losses & big wins.
Interesting recent trade: a guy betting $900 that
@SBF_FTX
is sentenced to LIFE IN PRISON against my $9100 that he's not.
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BONKERS sub market on
@polymarkethq
:
-Went omega-viral as ppl screamed it was "betting on death"
-Flipped from 5% last night to 96% today
-Did $700k in volume in 48hrs
-Back to 74% because the Yes resolution was DISPUTED & it now heads to the horrible, rigged UMA kangaroo court.
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I've received a lot of crazy DMs, but this one is wild.
A journey from Five Nights at Freddy's to a holiday for the Pilgrims, to the war in Ukraine, and finally culminating in some deep thoughts about a religious group.
[Side note: I lost almost the same amount of $ on FNAF]
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Major drama for the SB first song:
Usher starts halftime with a 3 sec sample of "My Way" and market went to 99c. Got a lot of shares of No at 1c.
But THEN the first words out of Usher's mouth when he's singing were "Caught Up."
Resolution? Caught Up wins & the "Insider" loses
Not great, folks! My biggest Super Bowl bet is "My Way" will not be Usher's first song. No inside info or anything, just a prediction.
Well don't you know it, but an hour ago, a new account is created and bets thousands ONLY ON the first song, and they're betting My Way.
FML.
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I think 9% is an all-time low for Trump on 538's model.
Meanwhile, Trump hits his highest price to win (43%) on
@PredictIt
since September.
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Some quick thoughts:
-Trump probably not going to run
-DeSantis in the "own the libs" wing of the party vs Youngkin/Tim Scott, et al
-Trafalgar is a fraud & does not poll anyone. Totally made-up
-Anyone that bet Kari Lake at >60c needs to retire from betting; you're too stupid
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Lol....wtf. I didn't get this email and I've paid enough fees to
@PredictIt
for them to build a hat factory.
Also, a totally WILD idea, but maybe don't buy any hats and instead buy a new server???
@CalcRisk79
@Popinski1
Got this email about an hour ago. Can choose between two different hats or a mask.
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Kalshi and Polymarket have a US government shutdown this weekend at around 83% odds, which is by far the highest odds (correct me if I'm wrong!) for a US government shutdown at the 48+ hour mark.
Not much serious effort being put in to prevent this one.
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Thread -- chance of a nuke is VERY LOW imho.
But some doofus with 0 credibility & an active imagination had a tweet go viral for forecasting exactly the opposite: 30% chance of Putin firing a nuke.
He flippantly cobbles together dumb numbers & predicts 16% chance of mass death.
Here's why I think there's now a one-in-six chance of an imminent global
#NuclearWar
, and why I appreciate
@elonmusk
and others urging de-escalation, which is IMHO in the national security interest of all nations:
4K
5K
34K
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Haha, sue PredictIt all you want, goatmilker. You're TOO LATE. I already took all of my winnings and immediately donated it.
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Looks like new
@PredictIt
markets may be coming very soon.
Comprehensive rebuke of
@CFTCbehnam
's clownery by the courts.
5th Circuit says the CFTC was wrong in telling PredictIt to stop operating.
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Wife has been downgraded, and Jerome Powell is my new
#1
crush after that 75bp hike 😍 😍 😍
Hit the longshot on
@PolymarketHQ
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The market on Trump getting at least 409 electoral votes (a 280+ margin) has doubled today from 6c (lol) all the way to 12c due to a very sane Louie Gohmert appearance on OANN about military servers in Germany. Me, a true galaxy brain, maxed No on this when it was at 4c.
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So far so good with crypto betting using
@catnip_exchange
--- I've got about $40k equivalent on Biden ("nTrump") at around 62 cents/-163 odds.
Glad to see
@AugurProject
(which catnip is built on top of) is starting to pick up momentum.
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Reaction to the Joker trailer that just dropped has been extremely positive on prediction markets.
Joker doubled its odds for highest grossing movie of the year on Polymarket (from ~4% to ~8%) & its projected Rotten Tomatoes score increased 10 points on Kalshi (from 69 to 79).
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Lmao. Guy wrote a TREATISE on why giving another person 0.7% odds for 5 YEARS on alien life was a totally genius bet
Meanwhile, back in reality, the odds of aliens being found is trading on Polymarket at 2% (lol) & very liquid. And it expires in 5 weeks!
Otherworldly arbitrage.
P/S/B: UFOs are almost certainly not aliens, and this is knowable with study and thought.
Perhaps you've heard that before. But it's not just empty words, this time; I've bet $150,000 to $1,000 against past UFO sightings being revealed within 5 years to have a
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@EmeraldRobinson
@CISAKrebs
My neighbor voted 5 times and libtard brags about it to me. The whole thing is rediculous
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@EmeraldRobinson
They are SURPERSING THE TRUTH about Chief Justice Roberts and his involvement in all of this. I am fed up of the Swamp. We need a new Twitter to talk freely
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My career is littered with the bankroll corpses of myriad nemeses who thought they could crack it.
Another one bites the dust.
Who wants to tell the self proclaimed pro gambler that Kari Lake is going to win?
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With the Supreme Court ruling 9-0 against Trump's dumbass court case (which he hilariously called "the big one"), looks like the Trump bettors are throwing in the towel.
Trump is now in free-fall across all betting markets. My G/L is up $2500 since the ruling came out.
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It all started for me with a $10 bet on Crash to win Best Picture, a big underdog. If Brokeback Mountain had won, I'd probably still be working a 9-5 haha.
Been a long-time coming, but real-money Oscar predicting is finally legal in the US on
@Kalshi
. Have already bet $6k! :)
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Via
@cityafreaks
, the owner of the firm nicknamed "Data for Pumping" by PredictIt users (because their polls seem fake/designed for PredictIt pumping) *allegedly* lost $50k betting on Rs in midterms
If you threw DfP & Trafalgar in the trash (I did), you'd have made bank on 2022.
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@Nate_Cohn
Its bizarre that it didn't occur to
@realaxelfoley
that Cahaly's polls are totally made-up. They're highly likely to be fictional.
Cahaly claims to poll tens of thousands of people - a number that exceeds other pollsters - yet its impossible to find anyone polled by Trafalgar.
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Hottest market tonight is the 2nd place finisher in Iowa, with Haley recently overtaking DeSantis.
But by far the biggest bets are on Vivek.
Lots of people taking the 20-1 odds that he pulls off the upset, with one guy just dropping a $10k bet to pick up 200,000 shares.
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Day in my life:
-Won $5k on
@PredictIt
when Peru's Pres arrested (bc I hodled a Bolsonaro coup bet lol)
-Arguing vociferously over whether "Spirit of Ukraine" is an entity with
@UMAprotocol
holders, $5k at stake
-Won $3k on
@PolymarketHQ
betting USA
#1
would free Griner for Xmas!
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A story in 3 parts
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@Polymarket
Erdogan won round 1, gets endorsed by third place guy, and now hits 90% in the markets as volume nears $3m.
Blessed to not have an $850 limit on Polymarket🙏🙏
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Addendum and plot twist: this guy is working for a prediction market where he is responsible for helping to write the rules for markets. Yikes.
Not going to identify which one (I talked to them privately), because it's not their fault.
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$17k worth of PredictIt Trump bets after the election is already lost. And the best thing about this is that....he's in the green!
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When the Turkish election market launched in February, Erdogan was trading around 75% to win, and hit a high of 82%.
Now, $1.3m of volume later -- and with the polls closed --
@Polymarket
has Erdogan at around 25% to win.
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QAnon has gotten all the attention, but don't forget about the BlueAnons who think Trump will be in prison any minute now
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Loving this market that
@PredictIt
launched today. 35% chance that the Dem ticket excludes Kamala in 2024.
35% seems high to me from a historical standpoint. But I also think she is a godawful politician and should be ditched, so maybe 35% is too low! (He should've picked Val)
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@RobertCahaly
@trafalgar_group
@realDonaldTrump
@RonDeSantisFL
@votetimscott
@NikkiHaley
@Mike_Pence
@mikepompeo
Cahaly and his completely made-up polls are BACK, baby!
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BET. My $5k against
@Barnes_Law
$5k -- Barnes has Trump defying the modelers & the election being closer than 2008. I have Biden winning by more than 2008 (~7.28 points in the popular vote). Bet decided when electoral college votes -- if it's real close, we wait for final number.
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Changes:
AL: Toss-up -> lean R
OK: Toss-up -> lean D
Blue Wyoming - it's just not happening. Solid red for me.
Election night:
-Tennessee will come down to swing Knoxville; I'll be delving into the precinct data
-South Dakota, all eyes will be on turnout in tribe-heavy counties
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Having a Senate vote without a PredictIt market will soon be against the law if my amendment is successfully attached to the $1.9T American Rescue Plan.
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Not great, folks! My biggest Super Bowl bet is "My Way" will not be Usher's first song. No inside info or anything, just a prediction.
Well don't you know it, but an hour ago, a new account is created and bets thousands ONLY ON the first song, and they're betting My Way.
FML.
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Me: "Nah, Drake isn't going to release some half-baked track in the next 2 days. He needs a certified hit with great lyrics to respond to Not Like Us."
Drake new track: "I haven't been arrested yet."
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There is a gargantuan whale of a bettor who says he will win 700k if Karen Bass is the VP pick. Some screenshots of his BF and PI bets below. He also has extensive offshore bets.
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Broken record on this, but kinda annoying that we're facing a political trifecta of a govt SHUTDOWN, Trump legislative VETO, and $900b of COVID relief - that all may or may not happen - and PredictIt ignores all that & instead spams out senator object markets like a Pez dispenser
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@EmeraldRobinson
THANK YOU. This is what I was telling my grandson on Thanksgiving -- Fraud has been become Normal and Ignored. The fraud has been hiding IN PLANE SIGHT!!!!
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It's really funny to me that Nate Silver -- whose mission with 538 was to displace punditry -- is now a very prolific and very bad pundit on all manner of topics. He'd be eaten alive on a prediction market.
The medium-run equilibrium is probably that airlines designate some of their flights as mask-required and some as mask-optional.
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PredictIt and Jim Clyburn have teamed up to offer a special promotion:
Deposit $850, put it on No on Michelle Childs, and get $1150 back. It's that simple!
Thank you PI and Jim Clyburn!
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(And let me also add as a caveat that I love prediction markets (obv) and think we need more of them with more people using them. More = smarter.
They're a far better barometer of what is happening around you than the pundit/commentator bullshit that permeates in the news world)
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Slight miscalculation:
Few months ago, I made a bet at long odds ($400 at 30-1 odds) that there would be an armistice or ceasefire in Ukraine by end of 2022. Was a bet that they would put down arms for Christmas.
TIL I learned that Christmas in Russia/Ukraine is January 7th.
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First new PredictIt contract in months 👀👀
🧨 New Contract "Robert Kennedy Jr." added to market "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?"
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Likely the death knell for legal political prediction markets for many years to come.
All US election betting - which was in the hundreds of millions in 2020 - will be shoved offshore & unregulated.
Prediction markets had academic, user, legal, & corporate support. Not enough.
The CFTC’s staff are recommending the commission vote against
@Kalshi
’s application to let people bet on the outcome of the November elections.
The agency’s 5 commissioners still have to vote on the recommendation.
More, just now, on
@TheTerminal
.
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"Hey Sam, we're done. Get your shit and get out. I'm dead serious."
[5 minutes later]
"Hey, you know we were kidding, right? Right, Sam? Please respond. Is your ringer off? I'm going to keep calling. We love you."
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Huge rules fight on PredictIt on whether Trump's statement -- "He won because the Election was rigged" -- is Trump conceding the election to Joe Biden.
The concession market went from 4c to 45c and now back to 21c.
He won because the Election was Rigged. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!
40K
20K
101K
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@Andrew_DK
@TheStalwart
Some people like collecting baseball cards, some people like to go out for drinks, me...I like getting push notifications of sovereign debt on a continual, non-stop basis, 24 hours a day, for only $4.99. Just got one for Burundi as I was typing this.
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