If you're interested in betting on anything as a serious endeavor, a few recommended reads:. -Thinking, Fast and Slow.-Intelligent Investor Ch 8.-Fortune's Formula.-Cracking the Code - -Deep Value.-Big Short/Moneyball.-When Genius Failed.-Superforecasting.

With the current iteration of the "Big Beautiful Bill", the US is about to create a tax bracket above billionaires: people who bet for a living. I did the math, and my 2024 marginal tax rate would be ~40% under this bill. I'd owe almost another $100k to the government. Poker,.

The June Fed decision has eclipsed $100m in volume on Polymarket, up from $88m in May. Kalshi also is now doing large volume, powered by retail flow from Robinhood. These markets are gigantic and still growing. Plus, they're more accurate than CME pricing! And yet the news

The account last night for anyone interested:.

Gets more interesting than this -- there is possibly/probably a leak somewhere. The price started inching higher 12 hours BEFORE the strike. There are signs that a Polymarket trader, with insider knowledge, is buying tons of shares ahead of Israeli strikes. The person (or group).

Did a fun podcast with @halfkelly -- he's very entertaining.

So I just managed to make $100k on predicting the new pope today. If you're interested in reading how, I'll fully go through it. If you aren't, then see ya! But please say a quick prayer that I don't get excommunicated, thx. ---. Alright, so normally I don't like to talk about.

There was a straight forward and I'd argue important market on whether Trump would call Carney a "governor" like he frequently called Trudeau. It is silly and funny, but it is also a distillation of Canadian/American relations. Carney and Trump met on Tuesday, and he didn't call

Short-ish thread. In the past 24 hours, I've seen the promise and the peril of prediction markets. First, the promise -- immediately after the Fed announcement at 2pm today, as economists and a former Fed vice chair were talking about what was new in the statement on Bloomberg.

RT @ManifoldMarkets: Absolutely incredible

The odds of a recession this year are at a new all-time high, 68%, ahead of tomorrow's GDP number. The odds were around 20% when Trump was inaugurated. Not sure what they're going to call this recession, but the name should reflect how idiotic this all is.

Fun little history of prediction markets. The guy who made this site asked me to write a 500 word history based on what I know. but I ended up doing a deep dive into this stuff & wrote like 5x that, including discovering degenerate political gamblers in the 1700s😂😂.

Abundance by Ezra Klein and @DKThomp is a really, really good read, and I recommend it. It was refreshing hearing a pro-growth, pro-future argument from the left, a group I normally associate with de-growth & wariness of technology. And I'm definitely a captive audience for.

My solution? Well there's a lot of things that need fixed here, but the main solution is pretty boring, and it's the same as it was a year ago, two years ago, three years ago, four years ago. And actually the same solution that I've been posting about since before Polymarket

In reaction to the market resolving against reality, Polymarket made a system-wide announcement that the outcome was unfortunate, but that it "wasn't a market failure" despite it being a very large market failure. Even forgetting the users who lost money from correctly

And how about the largest profiter in this market?. It's our old friend, and the most prolific scam artist in prediction market history, aenews2. He took home $55,000 in profit. aenews, if you don't know or have forgotten, has gotten caught multiple times undertaking

The problem then became compounded, as UMA was now overruling themselves and declaring the February 27th events as an oracle-verified agreement. This led to a domino effect where other markets now had to be expired as well, including a contentious $1.5m market on whether

Here is where things go from very stupid to inexplicably stupid. UMA voting is a two-step process. You cast your vote in one 24-hour period, and reveal your vote in the second 24-hour period. At this juncture, UMA voters have the choice between revealing their votes in this

But in a plot twist, on Sunday night, 23 hours and 58 minutes into the UMA voting, with 2 minutes remaining before voting ended, Polymarket issued a clarification to the market. They said that Yes should not prevail. That voters should vote "Too Early" and let the rest of the

These days, most disputes on Polymarket are decided unilaterally by Polymarket's clarifications. A dispute is made, Polymarket clarifies "XYZ happened, and these are the rules, and based on our interpretation of the rules, it should be Yes/No/Too Early.". UMA has never voted.