If you're interested in betting on anything as a serious endeavor, a few recommended reads: -Thinking, Fast and Slow -Intelligent Investor Ch 8 -Fortune's Formula -Cracking the Code - https://t.co/wXlOLUv2cG -Deep Value -Big Short/Moneyball -When Genius Failed -Superforecasting

This is exactly how my office looks, except every single monitor is for me.

stream today 130pm pst - zec - echo sale - gold/btc catch up - peter schiff on tmrw - update on polymarket GUEST LIST: 2pm: @Domahhhh pt 2 (legendary prediction market trader and legit my favorite interview ever see you soon domah) PULL UP.

LIVE with Domer @Domahhhh

I will be giving this as a Christmas gift to (1) everyone I've ever met and (2) each of my haters, with a handwritten note saying "For inspiration."

@FhantomBets PS.... Some lore, the actions that ultimately earned Maria Machado the peace prize was like something out of a movie. She organized and implemented the defeat of a dictator at the ballot box, with proof. It was also a gigantic rule fight last year, and I'll link the post. One of

Lots of ink spilled this week on the Nobel peace prize "Insider", including a full-scale investigation in Norway. @FhantomBets discovers/reveals in the quoted tweet that at least one element of the winner was on Nobel's site hours before the anouncement: an image file of Maria

Good week so far. Peace in the Middle East✅ My girl Taylor selling a lot of albums ✅ James Comey not perp-walked ✅ Not all sunshine and roses: I am throwing up blood betting on a short(ish) shutdown as these Senators dick around. Even after all these years... My thoughts in

My very long take on a potential Polymarket token, and the alleged $9b valuation. (Kalshi also has a nosebleed valuation, but I'm going to focus on Polymarket specifically here because of the rumored airdrop for users) I've been trading on Polymarket since January 2021,

PS -- having seen the frontrunners, here's my tip sheet: 4. Sinners was the early frontrunner, and could've run wire to wire if the fall/winter slate was weak. But that didn't happen. Will be hard to regain momentum. 3. Sentimental Value was red hot at Cannes. Having now seen

After audiences saw One Battle After Another this weekend, it is the 70% favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Don't think any film has been over >50% in September before. You're an idiot if you don't see this film in theaters.

Tweeting Papal side bets for posterity: Risking my $28,800 on NO to @Remember_Amalek's $10k on YES for Pope Leo being Time Magazine's POTY. Risking my $57,120 on NO to @SemioticRivalry's $10k ON YES, also on Pope Leo/Time Magazine's POTY. glglgl

Kyle and Cartman are at odds when a prediction markets app gets popular with their fellow students in an all-new episode tonight, Wednesday, September 24 at 10/9c on Comedy Central and tomorrow on Paramount+.

A friend showed me the Emmy Drama Series odds a few days ago, and I couldn't believe it. Severance season 2 was dumb...yet the 64% favorite? The Pitt was SO GOOD, and trading at 35%? Made no sense. Plopped down $18k for 50k shares on the better show, won $32k. I love my job.😂

Another terrible day for my haters: just became the first user to hit $400 million in trading volume on Polymarket. Next goal: dethrone Theo4.

The dumbest market on prediction markets rn is this Lord Miles promo that I am quoting. Long post ahead. For reasons that are beyond my comprehension, Polymarket teamed up with a pudgy, half-wit, animal-abusing, white-supremacist incel who calls himself "Lord Miles" and who

Not a very consequential thing, but kinda funny: a Polymarket user named "romanticpaul" (yes, his real username) started aggressively buying Taylor Swift to be engaged starting yesterday afternoon around 3pm. He nearly doubled the price from a 25% chance (this year) to 45%. You

A Trump fan dumped a lot of money into Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize last night on Kalshi. People kept putting up huge offers, and he'd swallow them. Dude even showed up in the comments quoting Lil Wayne to taunt as he was pounding the buy button😂 He racked up ~325,000

Very quick and brutal verdict via prediction markets: GPT-5 is incredibly underwhelming versus the expectations/hype. OpenAI plummeted from the 75% favorite for the best AI model right before GPT-5 was unveiled to.....8% after it was released. Bit embarrassing tbh.

Did an interview with ChinaTalk, I think he asked some great questions! That'll be my last podcast for awhile. Been on a break the past few months. Now back into battle. Perfect new Gosling movie for a name change.

So what are the net effects of this? 1. GeopoliticsWizard goes from $15k in profits over the past year he's been using Polymarket to -$15k. The guy is very active, trading a lot of markets. Exact type of user you'd want. He used the protocol as intended, followed the rules as