Hello!
After procrastinating to death I'm finally launching on that 'newsletter site'. (link in bio)
I've been delaying this because I feel weirdly insecure about my long-form writing. But with Nikkei hitting highs, I guess today couldn't be a better day to start it, so fuck
How to be -72% at some point but still 94x your fund anyways
He no longer has a fund so he shares it all.
Some highlights from the summary like I promised 🧵
Here goes nothing... summary devolved into full-on research and became a time sink. Got way too long so
splitting it up into parts to publish over time.
If you see any translation inconsistencies please DM me since my brain is fried😵💫
Highlight thread to follow later on. Enjoy!
Here goes nothing... summary devolved into full-on research and became a time sink. Got way too long so
splitting it up into parts to publish over time.
If you see any translation inconsistencies please DM me since my brain is fried😵💫
Highlight thread to follow later on. Enjoy!
These things just creep up on you don't they.
Nintendo ending the year with an ATH.
No AI, No Crypto.
Just good old transformation to a recurring business + IP portfolio with global appeal. $7974.JP
Congrats longs! (Of which I am not one😂)
The book was 'Our Investment Strategy: Who will the Market Smile Upon’ by Mr. Tatsuro Kiyohara.
He's one of the all-time greats of the 🇯🇵 HF world who ran the K1 Fund at Tower Investment Management and retired last year.
In his 25-year run, he returned 9300% investing in
Another point/risk from said book that didn't really occur to me until now.
Whilst there are lots of cos in 🇯🇵 rich in cash on B/S - especially for industrials, watch out for how old the productive assets are, a substantial capex might follow to replace them.
That cash you
Just came across something quite literally
"Zen and the art of Motorcycle Maintenance" 😂
Daytona Corp $7228.JP
6.3x PE, 4.1x EBITDA and div yield of 4%
A tiny company also featured in the forbes best under a billion
It distributes motorcycle accessories.
As a distributor,
🇯🇵 Quick Take
Trading at 11x P/E and 4x EBIT..
I'm intrigued. $3964.JP Aucnet operates multiple Digital B2B auction platforms currently focused on Auto, Consumer goods, and electronics.
So likely there are some network effects. Will prob enjoy some tailwinds both as a digital
Here's a quick rundown on Alpha Purchase $7115.JP a microcap with double-digit growth and ROCE valued at 10x cash adjusted P/E which I think has an asymmetric R/R profile.
A double from here should be possible and potentially more 🧵
New write up is now live on the stack
I discuss an underfollowed microcap in 🇯🇵 which I think has a ton of potential despite how it's valued.
If you like businesses like WW Grainger ($GGW) this might be for you.
This is my first go at a paid post. I wasn’t originally planning
🔍🇮🇱 in 🇯🇵?🔍
This quality biz and global leader can be bought through a 🇯🇵 company Sun $6736.JP which owns 49.53% (pre-dilution).
It's holding in $CLBT is worth roughly 2X the market cap i.e. you get the rest for free and then some
Risk ofc is when the gap would close...
Given recent chatter, some roll-ups in  🇯🇵
Shift ($3697.JP)
IT services
Yoshimura Food Holdings ($2884.JP)
Food
Daiei Kankyo ($9336.JP)
Waste Management
Genda ($9166.JP)
Game Arcade/Entertainment
Japan Elevator Services ($6544.JP)
Lift maintenance
Serendip ($7318.JP)
Interestingly the 🇯🇵 entity that owns 46.6% Sun Corp $6736.JP is also up 32% YTD after going sideways for a while.
It’s stake in $clbt is worth 2x its own market cap today.
Also noting that activist Oasis has been increasing their stake in Sun 👀
$CLBT - Cellebrite Thesis
• Attractive underlying biz w/path to grow 25%
• Considerable potential to raise prices & introduce products that improve efficiency
• Shares trade at an EV < 5x annualized rev; discount to peers & less than half the multiple of acquisitions
Another potentially cheap software name in 🇯🇵 microcap land.
Miroku Jyoho Services $9928.JP is down 50% from its previous peak in 2019 but I don't think it's that bad. Now at 3.9x EBITDA.
It does ERP/Accounting/Tax software for SMEs and 25% of accounting firms. Trading at
Wonder when this will get bought out.
Heian Ceremony: Funeral Services
P/E: 10.7x
EV/EBITDA: 0.46x
P/B: 0.47x
Has seen no growth the last 10 years.
Funny how Hikari Tsushin, which invests in recurring revenue models are owners.
Larger cap than most names I've looked at in Japan, but:
✅ Growing EPS (12.7x p/e)
✅ Buying back stock regularly + increasing dividends
✅ Corporate homepage similar to Berkshire
Hard to lose in the long run.
Something he was told by George Soros:
"The Hedge fund world these days is too institutionalised. The moment you want to take risk, your risk manager shows up immediately to 'manage your risk'. If you're confident in your idea, the whole point is to take that risk and bet big,
The book was 'Our Investment Strategy: Who will the Market Smile Upon’ by Mr. Tatsuro Kiyohara.
He's one of the all-time greats of the 🇯🇵 HF world who ran the K1 Fund at Tower Investment Management and retired last year.
In his 25-year run, he returned 9300% investing in
Japan has multibaggers too, 5 examples with global equivalents
#madeinjapan
👇
Shoei $7839.JP
Global leader in full-face helmets mainly for motorcycles
Comparables: $MIPS $HOG $LEAT
Thank you guys for the warm welcome on S*Stack.
I'm overwhelmed by the love and support!
As a little gift, I've added a 'resources' page for your research needs.
Things like where to find analyst reports, Stock info, Management insights, and other stats.
This will be a live
Been quiet for a while as ive been writing. Just did a quiet drop of part 2 yest (just to see what happens)
the Stack says its a 44 min read... I tried to go beyond the book and do my own research.
If you're new this is abt one of the few HOF HF managers in 🇯🇵 looking back,
New one out, and trying out a new format!
Wrote a condensed version of an investment idea rather than a deep-dive like for $7115.JP
This time I'm discussing a micro-cap that looks abit like Appfolio $APPF, a sticky SaaS solution for the property management industry that is
Things trading at 4x FCF “can be stupid cheap with limited downside.”
Younger me was not prepared for the fact things can get stupid cheaper like 2x FCF (thats -50%) before it goes up.
Which was a lesson in expectation management, which helps with temperament.
Great spot
@TeddyOkuyama
We also like Midac $6564.JP, an up and coming waste management company with a wide wide moat, run by v capable managers.
Operating margin : 35%+ (some units closer to 50%) as they focus on processing ‘profitable’ waste.
Runs critical infrastructure in
🇯🇵A 1000 Followers! Thank you for your support!🇯🇵
It's not much yet... but a reflection: When I started this, I was honestly not expecting much. Frankly, was also a little intimidated after seeing some distasteful comments between others.
But I was wrong.
Just a few weeks
🔍AreaLink $8914 as a Long Idea🔍
Leading Self-storage company in 🇯🇵 trading at 7X EBITDA
Transformation: It has for some years been transforming its model from selling storage containers/locations to running it itself, which allows for predictable revenues.
AreaLink's
Recently got invited to an IP licensing and merchandising Summit in a faraway land from 🇯🇵
Hosted by one of the largest Western studios anyone would know. So I went (for fun)
You won't believe how many times terms like 'anime-style', 'manga' and 'Kawaii-style' were referenced
Profiled a new stock! Since I got asked about this one quite a few times.
I can see why one might find this interesting but it didn't quite fit my particular needs.
Buuut as I have a bunch of notes, thought I'd write it up to speed up your research.
At the least hope you
An interesting point and risk among family owned companies in 🇯🇵 mentioned in a book i’m currently reading:
These fam owned companies may have an incentive to keep market cap low to reduce their inheritance/estate tax, for which Japan is the highest in the world. (Up to 55%)
I was introduced to a fund manager yesterday (outside this platform) had an awesome convo and mentioned that I was writing about Japan on S*stack.
He had no idea it was me but had already read my stuff!
That was pretty cool and made my day🙂
Props to owners of Nippon Sanso!
$4091.JP
Not all quality 🇯🇵 stocks need to be obscure, some have meaningful global presence and peers which act as useful reference points!
#madeinjapan
Something fun for today:
I'm always looking for fringe examples (esp consumer products) to share what "Made In Japan" 🇯🇵 stands for - things that are made with quality in the spirit of monozukuri.
Wanted to share a recent example I found that you might not know 🧵
I've always wondered why Japanese SaaS solutions have terribly old-school-looking UX.
I now realize this is what the target market (older demographic) is familiar with and wants.
Do you see the amount of paper?
This picture, quite frankly, is why software remains a colossal opportunity in 🇯🇵
No knock on this particular company, this sight is all too familiar in a mid-sized biz in Japan. Many expats might not even realize this if you work in an
A fascinating place that I've found interesting 🇯🇵 ideas but never heard of is the Forbes Asia Best Under A Billion List
Whilst some are frequent guest appearances like Shift - a good chunk are listed micro caps.
🧠AI x Ice Cream 🍦
Isn’t this amazing? Morinaga’s ($2201.JP) Choco Monaka Jumbo has been a household fav since launching in the 70s. 🍦🧇
Its main selling point is the ‘crunch’ of the wafer so they innovated over the years, for example by lining the inside with chocolate so
Can’t get over what a great read this was. One more nugget:
On investing in small companies, 90% comes down to management-and theres an inherent self selection bias.
If CEO is much smart than you, you won’t even realise how smart he/she is and you’ll likely miss it.
Damn…
The book was 'Our Investment Strategy: Who will the Market Smile Upon’ by Mr. Tatsuro Kiyohara.
He's one of the all-time greats of the 🇯🇵 HF world who ran the K1 Fund at Tower Investment Management and retired last year.
In his 25-year run, he returned 9300% investing in
🗾Japan field guide🗾
METI periodically publishes 'Global Niche Top 100' companies from 🇯🇵
Whilst slightly old, the list has a trove of listed companies worth looking at 👇
Which one catches your eye? 👀
#madeinjapan
#stocks
#investing
#multibaggers
🇯🇵
Corporate Japan has a terrible track record of overseas M&A. Why? Some thoughts:
a) In general 🇯🇵 companies have not had a capital allocation mindset. Management Incentives have mostly been based on P&L and not IRR - the two do not necessarily go hand in hand.
Only a few years
All I see on my feed lately is fungus this, fungus that. So let me just tell you 🇯🇵 has its own Fungus stock too.
Yukiguni Maitake $1375 sells premium-grade mushrooms for consumption 😂
Have a nice day. 🍄
One company that interested me at some point was i-mobile which trades at an EV/EBIT of 1.9x
This is a growing business with operating margins and ROIC of >20% and debt free.
It operates a website called Furunavi which helps Japanese municipalities advertise themselves to
Cool short interview with CEO of Recruit $6098.JP
Some interesting insights:
🔸He's not very good with English, based in the US for 11 years now but still asks colleagues to make it easy to understand.
🔸Doing things out of intellectual curiosity increases the probability of
Would say:
NIDEC
SONY
KEYENCE
SHIN ETSU Chemical
Daikin
Recruit
HOYA
FANUC
Terumo
Fujifilm
Olympus
and of course... Nintendo
Surprised Shimano is not on this list.
Japan a buy? $EWJ Lots of commentary about investing in Japan in recent months. Perhaps due to Buffett increasing his position. These are the top 50 Japanese stocks and 60% of the $EWJ Japan ETF. How many are quality companies? Daikin, Keyence, Nintendo, Fanuc..others?
Gotta love it when the Chairman/founder of $9843.jp Nitori (the ‘ikea’ of Japan). Says he won’t increase prices no matter how weak the yen gets.
Maverick Founder who made his business worth 2.5T JPY after all.
One to follow.
Something I started doing over time.
Judge a person by their questions, not their answers.
Answers are easier to copy-paste, good questions are more context-dependent, and harder to tamper.
One fund I like to look at once in a while for growthier names is the SBI-Okasan Small Monsters Japan Fund. Some definitely don't screen cheap but may be worth a look for some.
FP Partner:
Hirata Corp:
Yamami
Japan Material
Tamron
Nitto Boseki
Daiei
How I would think about investing in Japan today;
Obvious disclaimer: this is not financial advice of any sort. The purpose of this post is not to provide a granular portfolio to buy, but rather a catalyst to get you thinking about Japan. Japan is unique in its tradition.
BML 💉
One of the wild ones trading at 1.5x EBITDA
77% of the market capitalization in Cash 😅😅
It's a leading clinical lab testing firm that saw big tailwinds during covid which is normalizing making comps look bad but most of it is past.
One thing that needs more studying
Exactly why I decided to start this... Many of the names are too small for institutions but there are truly fascinating businesses if you know where to look.
#madeinjapan
46% of
#stocks
in Japan's TOPIX index have zero analyst coverage, while a further 22% have only 1-2 analysts covering them. Where do you think you are more likely to find mispriced stocks? In Japan, or in the US where nearly all the stocks in the S&P have 10 or more analysts
Imagine you're management, and believed for decades that cash in the balance sheet was yours, but now you're told it's also the minority shareholders...
Some will start returning it, but I think we'll also be seeing a wave of MBOs at silly prices. We're already starting to...
Re Japan changing - this small cap got taken out at 0.46x book, they raised bid to 0.48x book (!!) and still got it done…
As I said previously: corp governance still wildly broken. No desire to see even semblance of fair value paid in tons of these transactions. Squeeze out
On days like these I think of a quote from the Kiyohara book which went something like
“if the world is really going to end, you don’t want to be short the market, because if you’re right, you’ll win absolutely nothing anyways”
This would be massive 🇯🇵
Have had the fortunate opportunity to meet some highly intelligent people on this platform and potentially, we could make something work.
Looking for more people to further debate and ideate!
DMs Open ☀️
If acquiring 🇯🇵 SMBs could only become more attractive…👀
“Govt to allow up to 100% of the acquired stock acquisition cost from M&A to be considered as expenses (losses) for tax purposes.”
It's actually kinda crazy how much more information 🇯🇵 investors can get through Youtube.
Channels like
@irtv2022
frequently feature great Investors and Management teams of under-followed small/micro-cap companies.
Rakus $3923.JP continuing to post bonkers growth. Seeing push from the new invoicing regulation (インボイス制度)but some of its more mature products also re-accelerating.
One of the OG and premier SaaS companies (that is priced as such).
Always looks pricey but if you're
🇯🇵 Quick Take
Trading at 11x P/E and 4x EBIT..
I'm intrigued. $3964.JP Aucnet operates multiple Digital B2B auction platforms currently focused on Auto, Consumer goods, and electronics.
So likely there are some network effects. Will prob enjoy some tailwinds both as a digital
🥲🥲
RIP to the man that made us dream growing up.
I remember trying to make my hair like a super-saiyan as a little boy.
And so many started their martial arts journey thanks to him.
If it wasnt for him other great animes may not have been concieved.
Thank you 🙏
Profiled a new stock! Since I got asked about this one quite a few times.
I can see why one might find this interesting but it didn't quite fit my particular needs.
Buuut as I have a bunch of notes, thought I'd write it up to speed up your research.
At the least hope you
Kishida finally putting the spotlight on the 2024 problem, where the logistics sector will face a capacity constraint as they cap overtime work.
Bullish for supply chain SaaS/WMS provider like Logizard $4391.JP a nanocap which was once a darling now trading at only 6x EV/EBITDA
New write up is now live on the stack
I discuss an underfollowed microcap in 🇯🇵 which I think has a ton of potential despite how it's valued.
If you like businesses like WW Grainger ($GGW) this might be for you.
This is my first go at a paid post. I wasn’t originally planning
Found this article interesting.
It's based on multiple anonymous interviews with CEOs, Board Members and Investors conducted by Bain + Board Advisors on the reality of a Japanese Board Room.
3 main points:
1. Board is full of yes men and an 'old boys network'
Everyone just
Another point/risk from said book that didn't really occur to me until now.
Whilst there are lots of cos in 🇯🇵 rich in cash on B/S - especially for industrials, watch out for how old the productive assets are, a substantial capex might follow to replace them.
That cash you
An interesting point and risk among family owned companies in 🇯🇵 mentioned in a book i’m currently reading:
These fam owned companies may have an incentive to keep market cap low to reduce their inheritance/estate tax, for which Japan is the highest in the world. (Up to 55%)
Quick Summary of a microcap death-trapped business.
Atled $3969.JP a SaaS solution which trades at 15x P/E, 6x EBIT and 2.7x Sales.
Workflow SaaS company (similar to )
Solid market positioning and recognition, with partner ecosystem making it easier to
The 🇯🇵 Microcap Death Trap:
-> Stock market darlings get sold down w absurd volume from retail
-> funds can no longer touch (too small)
-> individuals get put off by the horrible-looking chart
-> brokers stop covering
-> illiquidity
This is where to hunt
Its actually pretty wild bc his fund in the course of 25 years almost blew up twice, and he still comes back from the dead and 94xes, he aint no garden variety Buffett.
I AM working on a summary but its tideous and ive got a cold 😂 sorry for the delay!
Unfortunately, this is a real risk for low P/B companies in Japan.
They'll realize the bargain and take it for themselves...
The downside might be limited but there could be an opportunity cost.
4987 has launched a 40% premium MBO for its business. 8001 which own 25% have agreed to tender their shares at 55% of tangible book! I’m not sure the TSE’s intent of governance reform was to encourage a wave of below book value MBOs, but TIJ… depressing
🇯🇵Happy New Year!!🇯🇵
In 🇯🇵 it is the year of the Dragon🐉
Which symbolizes new beginnings, momentum and success. The year in which you succeed by starting new things and all your efforts come to fruition.
It could not be a more fitting wish from me to everyone. Thank you for
Man didn’t think i’ll get such a positive response, thanks for the kind DMs.
Here’s a bonus: he has some harsh words for ESG.
He finds the whole ESG thing sus, and just a marketing trick for Managers to survive despite their underperformance.
I liked his simple logic
How to be -72% at some point but still 94x your fund anyways
He no longer has a fund so he shares it all.
Some highlights from the summary like I promised 🧵
"We've forgotten the lessons of 150 years ago."
Evolutionary psychologist, Robin Dunbar, told us
Calisthenics and tennis clubs help productivity, even if they look like unnecessary expenses in Excel.
Mad, not even 2 weeks with just 1 article and closing in on 300, thank you ❤️
There's already some generous paid subscribers from day 1, so decided to pull forward my plan to publish paid content for those also.
Have a great week everyone 🇯🇵
#madeinjapan
A curious dichotomy you see in 🇯🇵 is that:
Large growth names fetch high multiples, but small growth trades at weirdly low multiples.
This is presumably bc most institutions can't access the small ones due to size and liquidity.
and large growth trades high, in part it
Reflecting on a random thought I had recently:
If you’re Japanese, the best ‘social arbitrage’ you can exploit is simply working for a non-Japanese firm.
This exposes you to more opps to work with different cultures +’ideas and makes you multiple times more valuable (versus the
Been quiet for a while as ive been writing. Just did a quiet drop of part 2 yest (just to see what happens)
the Stack says its a 44 min read... I tried to go beyond the book and do my own research.
If you're new this is abt one of the few HOF HF managers in 🇯🇵 looking back,
It's amazing how many books about Japanese companies are not available in English.
These are the stories that help you truly understand the inner workings of a business or management team.
Great info! By total coincidence also had a call with the company recently.
$8117.JP is an interesting company with good capital allocation and valuation looks very attractive at 5.6 times EBITDA (and PER of 11). But I am not quite sure with biz - Yet.
Given the positives are
Central Automotive Products (8117) has compounded EPS and NAV per share by 13% pa and 9% pa respectively since 2005. The current CEO Sakata was appointed in 2012 and he has aggressively shifted away from the traditional auto parts trading business to a high-quality automotive 1/n
1/ $CLBT pitch by
@GreenhavenRoad
CLBT is SaaS for law enforcement agencies in the US and EU with 90% of revenue coming from gov sources and the rest from large corporations. Most importantly, these agencies are forced buyers as they cannot develop the expertise themselves.
A wise person recently told me:
“If you’re gonna put alot of hard work and time in, you should be going after the biggest opportunity available to you.”
Find the biggest hill to climb I guess, and he’s right.
After a chat with the CFO of a listed 🇯🇵 company -who is actually focused on IRR (a rare breed), we agreed on one thing.
The lack of capital allocation 'literacy' in Japan plagues not only businesses when doing M&A (which typically overpays) but also how local asset managers
And there it is. The crazy part is based on fundamentals feels like this is only the beginning.
Currently spending time in Small Growth Companies which remain severely overlooked in contrast to Large-caps/Semis which have finally gotten *some* attention.
#madeinjapan
This was perhaps the most practical advice from Buffett for any ambitious stock picker. If you love the game and have “only a couple millions” or less, 50% per year are still possible.
For that you need to look at a lot of weird little stocks and you will still find anomalies.
Had the pleasure of speaking to
@ClarkSquareCap
, and can confirm... he was just as kind and intelligent as you'd imagine!
I'm sure most of you already know him, but if you don't he covers some unique ideas including Japanese ones too! 😃
Agree. Think its already happening.
Some availability bias on my end and only to a certain point but wholesome to see the elderly working and in many cases enjoying it.
Provides a sense of purpose and community. Many towns have a ‘silver club’ where elderly can get jobs.
While 10% of Japanese are over 80, “a record 9.12 million elderly people held jobs.” I actually think Japan’s pension system will be ok: many older Japanese are accustomed to working, and Japan will learn to utilize its seniors workforce well.
He pulled the trigger earlier than most. He realised the costof being wrong is much less than the cost of being too late. If it already looked cheap, he'd start building a position early.
To the good people of Twitter/X, might be a long shot but I'm currently looking into something that might end up becoming my life's work.
If you know anyone with expertise in Luxury (even better if based in 🇯🇵) I'd love to connect!
Thanks in advance and warm regards. MIJ