Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
@MikeFritzell
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Your eyes and ears in Asia. Author of Asian Century Stocks ().
Not investment advice
Joined May 2014
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A list of my most-recent write-ups on Asian Century Stocks:
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How to bootstrap a Bloomberg terminal (1/x)
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Spoke to a couple from Shanghai last night. Locals are getting seriously worried. English classes replaced with Xi Jinping Thought. People reporting others if they use English words or voice anything radical. No more stand-up comedy. Perhaps this cycle truly is different.
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Shinzo Abe's assassin seems like a professional.
• A large portion of his Facebook friends have Yakuza tattoos.
• He was completely calm before the killing - no signs of nervousness or hatred.
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Pricing of finance-related Substacks
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@GearoidReidy
Lol. This feels like Japan in a nutshell - the community coming together to solve a cute, minor challenge.
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Opportunities by market, in my subjective opinion:
1. Sri Lanka
2. Hong Kong
3. Pakistan
4. Philippines
5. Indonesia
6. South Korea
7. Taiwan
8. Japan
9. Malaysia
10. Singapore
11. Thailand
12. India
Stocks are cheap overall though.
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Druckenmiller: "I will be surprised if sometimes in the next 6 months I'm not short the US Dollar"
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Things you don't read on Twitter
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Cheat codes in investing
Spin-offs
Buybacks
Reflexivity
Post-reorgs
Broken IPOs
New products
Insider buying
New regulation
Quality in crisis
Competitor exit
Index exclusions
Merger securities
Consumer surplus
Value-with-a-catalyst
Baby out with bathwater
Skepticism about growth
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How people lie with statistics:
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High-quality stock-related Substacks:
• Asian Century Stocks:
@Fritz844
• Emerging Value:
@ReturnsJourney
• Insider ideas:
@InsiderIdeas
• Overlooked Alpha:
@joe_oa
• The Science of Hitting:
@TSOH_Investing
• Value Don't Lie:
@Valuedontlie
• Value Punks:
@valuepunks
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No strong view on Klaus Schwab but weird to have a sculpture of Lenin in your office
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@juwonreports
Live cheaply and have kids. Don't bother with getting the best of everything. Trust me, you won't regret it.
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Part of the reason Philippine consumer stocks are fundamentally attractive
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Probably just a coincidence that this happens 1 day after Twitter stopped paying Google for its cloud services. He's a habitual liar.
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@Michael_Yon
Foreigners have mostly left but hard to take you seriously when you say that entire Shanghai is a ghost town
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A full list of Asian Century Stocks write-ups that I've made publicly available for free:
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A visual summary of Robert Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance
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"Equity research analysts now work more for investment banking than ever before... the proportion of a cash equity sales and research department cost base that is covered by commissions from the buyside is lower than ever before."
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Key investment-related ideas from John Train's Money Masters of Our Time
(1/x)
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I called up a Singaporean broker and asked about access to Southeast Asian markets:
"Oh, I don't know anyone who wants to trade these markets. Usually, clients want to buy US stocks. Tell me why again you want to do this?"
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• Also, Tetsuya's Facebook profile picture was liked by only 12 individuals, one of which is Banri Kaieda, vice speaker of the house of representatives of Japan. Very weird.
• Also, the Weibo posts of "Crusher Bunny 19C" predicted the assassination. Big coincidence as well.
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• Huge coincidence that a fanatic supposedly obsessed about Abe (his wife is the only Twitter follower) killed him in his hometown of Nara.
• Abe did not plan to go to Nara, the itinerary was changed at the last minute in the evening before the murder.
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Global roll-ups. Opportunities both on the long side and the short side...
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Hi! Public announcement:
I'm merging and re-launching my Substack as Asian Century Stocks. 20x Asian equity ideas per year and additional industry reports, thematic deep-dives, and news updates.
This will be a full-time job for me.
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• So Tetsuya planned to kill Abe out of fanaticism, built a homemade shotgun and then waited for Abe to visit his hometown? Coincidence.
• If Tetsuya was so angry at the religious cult, then why target Abe who doesn't have much connection to it.
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If you believe Google Trends, you should own:
• L'Occitane
• Skechers
• Asics
• Crocs
• Levi's
• Tapestry
• Ralph Lauren
• Deckers Outdoor
• On Holding
• Zegna
• Citizen
• Seiko
• Padini
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"You're not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity - a piece of a business - to gain your financial freedom."
Mostly true, in my experience. Either way, you need to build up assets that belong to you alone, and not your employer.
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The stock has almost quadrupled since this tweet... Google Trends is more powerful than people think
I don't invest much in US stocks, but this is one of the most impressive Google Trends chart I've seen in the past year. elf Beauty Inc (ELF US)
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American vs French style of providing feedback
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I think a question many of us are asking right now, is how nervous should be we as investors in Chinese equities.
Here is a story that might provide an answer. About how Victor Sassoon moved to China and ultimately fled the country in the 1940s.
// Thread // 👇
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Finally breaking even on my Substack after all personal expenses, after roughly 2.5 years. A huge weight lifted off my shoulders. And super grateful to be able to do what I love - turning over rocks in Asia.
I can't say that I've reached huge success, but a few lessons (1/8):
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The best compounders I've found in Asia:
• Seria
• Koshidaka
• Curves
• Plover Bay Technologies
• Fuji Corp Miyagi
• Hartalega
• Baiyunshan
• MAP Aktif
• Multi Bintang
• Delfi
• Bloomberry Resorts
• United Plantations
• Major Cineplex
• L'Occitane
• Fairfax India
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Caution = being a "total clown". Kudos to Damodaran for staying disciplined and daring to voice independent opinions. The American tech bull market will end in tears, that is virtually guaranteed.
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Probably premature to tweet that Abe's killing was part of unrestricted warfare... But it's probably closer to a 50% probability than say 10%.
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@DinaPomeranz
Women browse Instagram and mainstream newspapers, men go on Twitter and watch YouTube videos. Not sure if entirely accurate but this is what I see in my life.
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Bill Gross showing that the game is all about gathering assets
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I watched 12 Angry Men the other day. One of the best and most underrated studies of the prejudices + biases that cause us to become irrational.
In the movie, 12 jurors are tasked with trying to decide whether an 18-year old buy should be convicted of first-degree murder or not.
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Underrated source of company research: Harvard Business School case studies
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On Egerton Capital's John Armitage's investment style, sourced from James Morton's 1997 book "Investing With the Grand Masters" (1/x)
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Hilarious that this is how someone like Druckenmiller picks stocks: "opened Perplexity and asked for the five most liquid ADRs and bought all of them"
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Perhaps the best podcast episode I've ever heard on investing in Japan... I wish there was more of such content in this part of the world
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Ok, Ed Thorp is clearly a gifted individual
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Soros Fund Management is not a fan of Chinese private companies
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Retail investors have this amazing advantage of being able to:
1. Invest in small caps
2. Not being tied to virtue signalling / ESG
3. No need to seek the consensus of an investment committee
4. Can make meaningful bets with positions > 10%
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The man who saved Kishida from the smoke bomb. Impressive
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The most beaten down sectors are usually those that offer the most opportunity...
Office REITs
Hong Kong equities
Chinese ADRs
The Philippines
Brazil
What else?
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Spectacular: Ed Thorp on his career, how to maintain good health until old age and mental models
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Makita (6586 JP):
Leading Japanese manufacturers of power tools with a 20% global mkt share. Batteries interoperable = moat.
Home buying / refurbishing interest weak post-COVID and high rates.
Share price @ ~2020 lows despite weak yen. Normalised P/E ~11x, properly adjusted.
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A typical expansion cycle. Surely we're in a step 9 now?
Source: Louis Gave
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"You will get rich by giving society what it wants but does not yet know how to get. At scale."
Emphasis on 'at scale'.
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Interactive Brokers now offers access to Taiwanese stocks to all its clients.
So here's a post on what I consider to be the best businesses of Taiwan.
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@Noahpinion
"Share them with your senators"
Implausible that TikTok might be influencing future US presidential elections? Not implausible at all.
They crossed a line here.
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How can a company earn 40% ROE producing windshields for autos?
The stock trades at P/E 7x. Normal, right.
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No other city like this in Asia... high density housing is exactly what makes Hong Kong charming
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P/E 9x. So many stocks like this in Japan.
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Interactive Brokers now offers trading access to Taiwanese (and I believe also Indian) stocks
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Exactly two years ago, I started my "Substack Asian Century Stocks". It's been a good ride with close to 300 paid subscribers. Thanks for the support!
Here are a few lessons from that experience:
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@Post_Market
There are only rumours, no definitive rules. But let's just say it's not that easy to get your money out of China. The government will often push MNCs to reinvest within the country.
From Robert Spalding's book:
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Boustead Singapore (BOCS SP):
Small-cap conglomerate based in Singapore. It's run by legendary entrepreneur FF Wong, who has an origin story that reminds me of Li Ka-Shing's.
The business has suffered from the post-2015 downturn in oil, but the other businesses are doing fine.
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The defining chart of our era
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Finally caught COVID, and I've got to say - this is the weakest flu I've ever experienced.
I worried about this for almost 3 years?
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Google search queries for lab grown diamonds. From the Trending Data SS
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Still think Steinhardt's format for pitching an idea remains the best:
1. How you're going to make money
2. What the consensus thinks
3. Why you think differently
4. When the consensus will change its mind
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European stocks that have halved (1/x)
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I went through this list of investor letters yesterday and found that practically nobody invests in Asia these days. 80% are focused on US tech. I'd bet that was not the case in the early 2010s.
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You know that you're a nerd when buying a book makes you excited
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Bingo, well said
Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong explains why he will never allow to allow Western wokeism take root in Singapore.
The spirit of Lee Kuan Yew lives on…
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Shake Shack empty during lunch hour at one of the most expensive locations in Singapore.
Whoever is running the company must not care much about profitability.
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Nintendo's approach to product development is a key reason behind the company's success.
Here's the story of the man who developed it.
👇👇
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I have to say... the quality of the research from say Bernstein is still miles ahead of the average S-bstack. VIC posts tend to be better as well.
S-bstack's advantage: new ideas you wouldn't find elsewhere. There are some money-makers on there too (Citrini, Toffcap, etc)
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Simple tricks to spot fraud
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Julian Robertson: Do a timeline!
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Key take-aways from Dan Blumenthal's book The China Nightmare: The Grand Ambitions of a Decaying State
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Re-reading Joel Greenblatt's book, wondering: how do you even identify post-reorg situations, dilutive rights issues or merger securities?
Beyond Google Alerts and maybe Bloomberg MA, is there any research service focusing on them?
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Every EM sell-side report:
• "Industry leader in [pick small niche]"
• Euromonitor industry growth chart
• Benefitting from consolidation
• Low penetration vs Japan
• We project 20% CAGR in the next 5yrs
• Valuation justifiable vs 5 random peers
• DCF with perpetual growth
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"Fifteen years after the introduction of Bitcoin, not a single major application has appeared that does not involve fraud or speculation"
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Hong Kong stocks are incredibly cheap. This is the time to invest.
@MikeFritzell
My sample has 304 Hong Kong stocks with 12-month forward P/EPS data. Here's the distribution with the same buckets as the chart above:
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I'd bet that Chinese oil demand is going to recover way faster than most analysts expect
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Information sources for stock research:
• Twitter
• RSS blog / newspaper search via Feedly
• Bloomberg
• Sell-side, subject to access
• VIC
• Substacks via Outlook search
• Alt-data (Google Trends, Alexa, AppAnnie, Camelcamelcamel)
Curious to hear what else you use.
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Booming consumer brands:
• Sol de Janeiro (L'Occitane)
• Hoka (Deckers Outdoors)
• Crocs
• e.l.f. Cosmetics
• Hello Kitty (Sanrio)
What else?
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Status of the Singapore rental market: landlord approaches me on the street asking if I want to rent his apartment
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Lol. Best annual report cover ever?
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I'd love to see a study on how generalists generally perform in:
• Biotech
• Non-consumer facing tech
• Mining
• Oil & gas
Probably not pretty...
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Return on time invested imho:
• Insider buying screens
• Fund holdings / 13Fs
• Spin-off screens
• Value Investors Club
• Substacks
• Observing alt-data for stocks A-Z
• Charts with break-outs
• Twitter (only a few accounts offer high signal to noise)
• Sell-side 🤮
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I'm scared to death shorting stocks. But I can't imagine a better time to do it. Almost everybody has given up hope.
Even Dan David had to warn all his listeners on his podcast that shorting stocks could lead to ruin.
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Getting plenty of questions on whether it's worth buying HK equities. I honestly have no clue...
All I know is that HK stocks are cheap-cheap-cheap and that China will most likely ease its monetary policy while the rest of the world is tightening.
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The city has become a mecca for mainland Chinese companies looking to rebrand themselves as Singaporean
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You’d think that with zero capital gains tax (Singapore), people would tilt towards becoming frequent traders.
But no, instead Singapore has become the home of long-term value investors that are generally risk-averse.
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So Twitter shuts down accounts like Rudy's, censors posts randomly, de-verifies the New York Times.
And now you want me to invest years of my life to build a subscription business on Twitter?
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All the macro guys are bearish
All the stock pickers are super-excited
Not sure what to make of it
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