Gavin Barwell
@GavinBarwell
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Co-founder NorthStar providing advice on UK and geo-politics. Former No 10 Chief of Staff, Housing Minister & Croydon MP. #lfc fan, Tolkien nerd & Nandos addict
Croydon
Joined January 2011
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Pinned Tweet
Right-wing Twitter: Sunak is struggling because he is too left wing
Voters:
Average left/right wing score of Conservative LEADER during their tenure (higher score means more right wing)
Cameron: +39 (+44 as PM)
May: +54
Johnson: +63
Truss: +68
Sunak: +54
Average left/right wing score of Conservative PARTY under each leader
Under Cameron: +46 (+48 in
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Let me put this politely: it is not *entirely clear* why the Prime Minister needs to wait for Sue Gray's report to find out if he went to a party in his own garden
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What the Prime Minister needed to do today was to show contrition. No attacks on his opponents. No more lame excuses. No more failure to answer simple questions. Instead what we got was an exhibition of every single trait that got him into this mess. He's not going to change
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You were brought down because in a matter of weeks you lost the confidence of the financial markets, the electorate and your own MPs. During a profound cost of living crisis, you thought it was a priority to cut tax for the richest people in the country
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I despair at my timeline this morning. We are a few weeks in to a crisis that has months - possibly years - to run and people are already trying to conduct the inquiry that will come afterwards. Is it too much to ask that we focus on what to do now rather than who to blame?
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You would have thought the Foreign Secretary was aware we are in a military alliance with France
Asked if President Macron is "a friend or a foe," Liz Truss replies that "the jury is out".
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I cannot say this strongly enough: Ministers need to stop anonymously briefing journalists and start speaking directly to the public. Trust in government is going to be vital during the difficult months ahead and it is best fostered by transparency, not off the record briefing
Elderly to be quarantined for four months in 'wartime-style' mobilisation to combat coronavirus, writes Robert Peston
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Not the first to say this and I won't be the last, but the Government is going to have to explain why if Northern Ireland's position is so good it would be so bad for the rest of us
Rishi Sunak - "Northern Ireland is in the unbelievably special position... in the entire world... in having privileged access to the UK home market... but also the European Union single market... nobody else has that... only you guys" in Northern Ireland. 🤦
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He prevented people from saying goodbye to dying relatives, but he thinks it was ok for him to have leaving drinks with people. He doesn't get it. Zero contrition
The PM says some events identified in Sue Gray's report were held for the purpose of "saying goodbye to valued colleagues".
He adds that "some people will think it was wrong even to do that" but "I respectfully disagree."
Live:
📺 Sky 501 and YouTube
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When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...
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The tragedy of
@DavidGHFrost
and those who think like him is that they can't see that the high tax burden they dislike is in part the result of the hard Brexit they chose 1/4
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Turns out Boris and his Brexiteer fans think Parliament is sovereign up until the point it decides something they don't like
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The absolute state of David Frost trashing the deal he negotiated + hailed as a triumph - despite many, yours truly included, warning it was a dud - *and worse* now using it to further undermine our relationship with some of our closest friends in an increasingly dangerous world
Brexit Minister Lord Frost proposes plans for entirely new protocol to replace existing Northern Ireland Protocol
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Just to be clear, the EU did not create trade barriers between GB and NI. The trade barriers were created by the Johnson government agreeing to them in an international treaty
#helping
#alwayshelping
Exclusive:
Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol
Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest
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I've been a Conservative councillor, MP and Minister, the Party's Director of Campaigning and Chief of Staff to a Conservative Prime Minister. But it turns out that because I believe Prime Ministers should obey the laws they impose on the rest of us, I'm a leftie
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Conservative MPs could dismiss Peter Hennessy as "just another unelected peer", but they would be wise not to. He knows the historical precedent - and he will have thought very carefully before using such unequivocal language
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I see one of PM's team is saying that unless MPs fall in line she might call an election. Can we file this with "We're going to remove the whip from loads of our MPs" as a toothless threat? She is not going to call an election because she would lose badly - very badly
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The reason our country is facing tax rises and spending cuts is because of a 'Mini Budget' clowns like you supported. We don't want or need any more advice about public policy from you. Just No
Our country is broke.
Its people face soaring food and energy bills.
Soon, we will learn of tax rises many can’t afford.
And yet, our Prime Minister magically finds many billions to give away for international climate projects.
Just No.
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I for one am loving this new incarnation of
@Nigel_Farage
as a human rights activist railing against the inhumane immigration policies of right-wing governments
I am talking with the Djokovic family and they are clear that Tennis Australia, in line with Victoria state law, allowed Novak to come to Australia as he had proof of a positive PCR test within the last 6 months. He was then arrested, his phone and wallet taken.
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Waking up to catastrophic results for the party in London. Wandsworth & Westminster were flagship councils. We held them during the Blair honeymoon. We held them during austerity. We held them under Theresa May. Losing them should be a wake up call for the Conservative Party
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This is what you said at the time though
@IsabelOakeshott
What an absolute shambles. A struggle to take anything any of them say seriously. We have been humiliated on the world stage and pretty much every household is now worse off. This once proud nation deserves better.
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A reminder that
@NadineDorries
supported (or at least didn't vote against) referring this matter to the Privileges Committee on 21 April. She is now trying to publicly pressure the MPs on the committee not to do the job she - and the entire House - asked them to do
If this witch hunt continues, it will be the most egregious abuse of power witnessed in Westminster. It will cast serious doubt not only on the reputation of individual MPs sitting on the committee, but on the processes of Parliament and democracy itself
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The difference between Boris and previous leaders of the Conservative Party is that they cared about the party and when reluctantly persuaded they were no longer an asset did the decent thing. He doesn't care - this is a scorched earth policy. The '22 needs to accelerate its plan
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If you don't wish to live in a country where people are allowed to have different opinions to you, maybe you should emigrate?
(And I say that as someone who disagrees with the demonstrators)
Not My King?
If you do not wish to live in a country that has a monarchy the solution is not to turn up with your silly boards.
The solution is to emigrate.
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This man has no shame. He is one of the architects of this disaster
My
@Telegraph
column tonight.
"Liz Truss has to go if the Tory party is to have any chance of recovering."
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What was that you were saying
@Nigel_Farage
?
The idea that Donald Trump would keep top secret documents from the Oval Office at Mar-a-Lago is laughable. This is a set-up and people won't believe it.
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SPOILER: The Government doesn't give you anything for free. You pay for it in taxes.
And the more the Government tries to do, the worse job it does
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It appears Conservative MPs no longer have to believe in the rule of law. What has happened to the party I devoted nearly 30 years of my life to? Utterly depressing
Rishi Sunak refuses to condemn Lee Anderson for saying the government should break the law by sending asylum seekers to Rwanda despite the Supreme Court ruling.
"I thought Lee's comments reflect the strength of feeling on this issue," he says.
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A despicable slur on
@SadiqKhan
and Londoners
In his first speech as PM,
@RishiSunak
said he would "unite our country". If he allows the likes of Anderson to spread hate and division like this, those words will be revealed as a sham
Tory MP Lee Anderson discussing Sadiq Khan on GB News:
“He’s given our capital city away to his mates”:
“I don’t actually believe that the Islamists have got control of our country, but what I do believe is they’ve got control of Khan, and they’ve got control of London."
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Set aside the moral objection: sending asylum seekers to Rwanda won't stop people crossing the Channel; it will merely lead to them trying to live here illegally rather than claiming asylum. Classic Johnson policy - sounds good to his base but actually expensive and ineffective
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This quote perfectly encapsulates what's wrong with the modern Conservative Party. This leadership election is taking place in an imaginary world where Brexit hasn't made us poorer, we're not facing a climate emergency and tax cuts don't need to be paid for
‘If people think there is an imaginary river, you don’t tell them there isn’t, you build them an imaginary bridge’, they add.
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Respect to the whistleblowers who have come forward to tell the truth about what went on. Their testimony is damning for the PM. He knew about what was going on, he did nothing to stop it and then he misled Parliament about it
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If the PM accepts the penalty notice, he is admitting he broke the law and lied. He won't resign (though Rishi Sunak might), so whether he stays is in the hands of Conservative MPs. What they decide will define their and the party's reputation for the forseeable future
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That's NOT what Anderson said - he said Islamists have control of Khan
It looks like Ministers are going to be asked to defend this filth. If they don't want to degrade themselves by doing that, they need to put pressure on Number 10 to ditch this line asap
Conservative source: “Lee was simply making the point that the Mayor, in his capacity as Police and Crime Commissioner for London, has abjectly failed to get a grip on the appalling Islamist marches we have seen in London recently.”
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You should have checked with your mate before tweeting this
@Nigel_Farage
. Trump's own statement admits it's *not* a set up. He did take these documents, but he argues that he had the authority to declassify anything he fancied taking with him
The idea that Donald Trump would keep top secret documents from the Oval Office at Mar-a-Lago is laughable. This is a set-up and people won't believe it.
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There wasn't any pact. Labour and the LDs both focused on the by-election they had the best chance in. More importantly lots of people voted tactically for the party best placed to beat the Conservatives.
@SuellaBraverman
should ask herself why people were so motivated to do that
Suella Braverman(Attorney General) - "It's disappointing to see that there's actually a dishonest electoral pact between the LibDems & Labour, & that's more worrying"
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It should now be clear to the DUP that supporting Brexit was a huge strategic error for them and unionism in NI. It's reduced support for the Union. It's led to a border in the Irish Sea (because the ERG prefer that to the alternative - customs union + regulatory alignment)
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Lots of briefing that Ministers want "incontrovertible evidence" before imposing more restrictions. This is a natural response when faced with a painful decision but - as they should know by now - with COVID if you wait until the evidence is incontrovertible it's already too late
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One of the lessons is that the UK and the EU face a common threat and that the Brexit deal should have included arrangements to work together on foreign and defence policy. Remind me who blocked that???
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You're about to become Prime Minister. You will inherit a civil service demoralised under your predecessor. You will depend on these people to deliver your policies. Why on earth would you choose to insult them by accusing them of something for which there is zero evidence???
In her latest campaign release, Liz Truss says that woke civil service culture “strays into antisemitism” as she vows support for British Jews.
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Final thought on
#BatleyAndSpen
: I don't know
@kimleadbeater
but it took courage to put her name forward after the murder of her sister and she has endured an unpleasant campaign with dignity and integrity. We may be from different parties, but much to admire
#moreincommon
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Sooner or later, someone is going to have to face up to these choices rather than resigning when confronted with them 4/4
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I'm showing my age, but there was a time Conservatives believed in something called the rule of law
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Even if you agree with the thrust of the PM's 'If not now then when?' announcement today, the decision to make mask wearing voluntary on public transport is a mistake. If you want people to resume normal life, you need to make it feel as safe as possible for them to do so
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The contrast between how Theresa spent her last few weeks as PM - using every last minute to advance the causes she cared about - and how Boris has spent his is quite something
The man pictured on the right here with Boris Johnson, during his holiday in Greece, is Henry Newman.
Boris Johnson claimed he was "interviewing" Newman during the infamous 'ABBA party' in his Downing Street flat that he avoided a fine for.
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Once again, I want you to imagine the absolute field day the Conservative Party would have if the IMF said this about a Labour Government...
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Feels like this leadership election is dodging the key issue facing the Conservative Party: you can't have Thatcher levels of taxation & Johnson levels of public spending - particularly given damage Brexit has done to economy + increased demand for public services post COVID 1/2
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Making light of law breaking by those who makes our laws, months of lying about it and serious allegations of sexual harassment is not a good look. For the record, we shouldn't have to choose between decent standards and economic competence. We are entitled to expect both
What was the original problem again, cheese and wine? A birthday cake? A guy pinching another guy’s arse at a bar somewhere?
Is it possible some Tory MPs are now feeling a little duped? Millions of voters did choose Boris after all.
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Actually I think people are pretty furious with those who acted as cheerleaders for the government's policy when many - not least
@RishiSunak
- warned *exactly* what the consequences would be. A little humility would be in order rather than blaming others
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It. Is. Not. A. Comms. Problem.
The Tories need to get into overdrive asap to explain last week's mini-Budget.
A local media round with the PM and a clip with the Chancellor is not enough.
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If you keep having to delay its implementation because the impact would be so bad, maybe that should tell you there was something wrong with the deal in the first place?
#justsaying
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In one sense, this was inevitable - having taken the moral high ground, he would have no choice but to resign if fined - but this is still an admirable statement, which draws a clear distinction between him and Boris Johnson
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Is there a problem with people illegally crossing the Channel? Yes
Are 100 million people trying to come here? Of course not. The Home Secretary should be utterly ashamed of herself for resorting to the language of extremists
Suella Braverman: "There are 100 million people around the world who could qualify for protection under our current laws. Let's be clear. They are coming here."
Absurd and inflammatory from the Home Secretary. Only a tiny proportion of world's refugees attempt to come to the UK.
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A thread on a remarkable speech by
@DavidGHFrost
in which he admits he blinked in the negotiations & that the PM misled people about the deal, seems oblivious to the damage it has done and has the nerve to portray himself as a Unionist despite risking it to get Brexit done 1/n
1 I spoke at Policy Exchange
@Policy_Exchange
today on the history & the future of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Thanks to
@ArleneFosterUK
for joining me.
Text below.
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If he would prefer a judge led public inquiry he only has to say the word...
** Our Daily Telegraph splash tomorrow **
Exclusive: Boris Johnson faces ‘kangaroo court’ over inquiry into partygate ‘lies’, No 10 fears
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This is why going back on our word is such a bad idea: it doesn't just damage our relations with our friends, it was always going to be quoted back at us when we accuse others of not honouring their commitments. Not too late to stop this act of self harm
"2 years ago we made a promise to the Northern Ireland Protocol.
We are determined to break it."
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On a personal level, I can empathise with
@NadineDorries
' frustration. I felt exactly the same when Boris and others were campaigning to oust Theresa. And there's the rub: if you don't show loyalty, you're in a weak position to demand it of others when you're in charge
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries claims growing calls for PM to resign are result of "co-ordinated campaign" by backbenchers
She accuses Tory MPs trying to oust him of doing "the opposition's work"
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If the turmoil in the markets, the even higher debt, the interest rate rises on the way and the unfairness of it weren't enough, the fact that this man - who has already done grave damage to our economy - supports it should be enough to convince you the Growth Plan is a mistake
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It's tempting to believe that - despite all the warnings - the government "underestimated the effect of the protocol", but I'm pretty sure it's not true. They knew it was a bad deal but agreed it to get Brexit done, intending to wriggle out of it later
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This tweet encapsulates what's wrong with (parts of) today's Conservative Party. It's clearly untrue (if it were true, all ministers would currently be subject to accusations of bullying) and worse the intent is to undermine confidence in one of our key institutions
Sadly, we now live in a country where the definition of bullying includes telling someone to do their job. Where the slightest upset or annoyance is indulged with endless reports and inquiries.
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Over 40% of his own MPs have no confidence in him. His days are numbered
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This is an absurd line. First Hester didn't offer any "criticism" of Diane Abbott's views; he described his reaction to seeing her on TV. And second what he said clearly had something to do with her gender and the colour of her skin because he referenced both of them
Conservative Spox on Frank Heather's comments about Diane Abbott:
"Mr Hester has made clear that while he was rude, his criticism had nothing to do with her gender nor the colour of her skin. He has since apologised."
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The reputation of Britain's oldest and most successful political party has been shredded in less than three weeks. Worse still is the damage to the country's reputation. It is remarkable that Conservative MPs are allowing this to continue. It will take years to repair the damage.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 53% (+1)
CON: 19% (-1)
Via
@PeoplePolling
, 12 Oct.
Changes w/ 6 Oct.
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This
@NadineDorries
who asks "Why is it that we've had 5 PMs since 2010, with not one of the previous 4 having left office as the result of losing a general election?" *surely* couldn't be the same one who triggered a vote of confidence in Theresa May? 1/3
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When MPs report the feedback on the doorstep is inconsistent with the latest polls it is because either a) they are canvassing in unrepresentative areas with much higher support for their party or b) they're making it up
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These people need to find the courage to speak out publicly, not anonymously to journalists
Budget verdict from one Tory former minister:
“It's economically reckless and political suicide."
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1. It doesn't matter what you call it, *what matters is it was against the rules*
2. It would have been even if it was just Number 10 staff, but it wasn't - the PM's interior designer was there
3. These attempts to defend the indefensible are making people even angrier
So, when people in an office buy a cake in the middle of the afternoon for someone else they are working in the office with and stop for ten minutes to sing happy birthday and then go back to their desks, this is now called a party?
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I understand why
@RishiSunak
appointed
@SuellaBraverman
but it was a mistake. Every day she stays, she does more damage to the Government's reputation, her colleagues' prospects and more importantly the institutions she is responsible for. Time to get rid
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What are BBC bosses going to do if solidarity with Gary Lineker starts to extend beyond sports pundits, commentators etc into other areas of their output?
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1. A reminder that Simon was one of those who agreed something that kept Northern Ireland subject to EU law. He told his voters at the last election what a good deal it was. And it's not as if he and others weren't warned - by me and others - what the consequences would be
🧵1/8
It could be an important week.
We should not agree anything that keeps Northern Ireland subject to EU law or in the single market.
Ultimately the Protocol legislation remains a clean solution to ensure *all* parts of our country are treated equally.
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For how long will our two major parties continue to ignore this?
The trend is clear, driven both by demography (only 19% of under 50s say right decision, 66% wrong) and people changing their mind (19% of Leavers + further 11% don't know vs 5% of Remainers + 4% don't know) 1/2
In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)
Via
@YouGov
, 9-10 Nov.
Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.
Largest EVER lead for 'Wrong to Leave' (polled since Aug 2016).
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He had to stand down as PM but only because others lost confidence in him not because he took responsibility + he has hinted at a comeback. Bizarre in those circumstances to suggest we should just forget about whether he was guilty of a contempt of the House
Boris has already paid the ultimate price for Partygate
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Utterly absurd to suggest the UK wasn't a genuine democracy in 2016, or that Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland et al aren't genuine democracies today
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At first glance it looks like
@RishiSunak
has got some significant concessions from the EU. There is a lesson for the Conservative Party here: his constructive approach has proved far more successful than the bad faith behaviour of Johnson and Frost. Two other thoughts... 1/4
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Well said
@JulianSmithUK
. Just like when he said Muslim women wearing burqas looked like letterboxes,
@BorisJohnson
needs to learn that his words have consequences for other people. He needs to withdraw them and apologise
What happened to Keir Starmer tonight outside parliament is appalling. It is really important for our democracy & for his security that the false Savile slurs made against him are withdrawn in full.
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Found out this morning that
@trussliz
has blocked me. Think she is the first person ever to do so. So much for being an advocate of free speech...
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The absolute state of British politics at the moment: here is an MP suggesting an attempted coup is underway in this country at the moment led by the media. If it wasn't so dangerous it would be laughable
BBC Radio 4 Bulletin leads this morning with a manufactured story of what some MPs have said to the BBC. This is not news reporting an event.
This relentless news creation is a coup attempt against the Prime Minister.
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There is a section of my party that appears not to understand that in many parts of the country unless one parent is earning a very good wage both parents have to work to make ends meet - and that reliable, affordable, high quality childcare is therefore essential
Labour’s plan for babies….
Six months with mummy or daddy (if you’re lucky) then handed over to the State so mummy and daddy can get back to the Critical National Endeavour of Generating GDP.
Has anyone asked if this is best for children? 1/4
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"Ryanair maintained the fees were in line with its policy"
I am sure they were
@RyanairPress
, but if your policy is to make an elderly couple pay £110 for printing two pieces of paper does that suggest to anyone in your team that your policy is wrong???
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Given the Withdrawal Agreement & Political Declaration David Frost negotiated last autumn were 95% the work of his predecessors - and the 5% that was new involved giving in to the EU's key demand (for some customs processes when goods move GB to NI) - that quote's some brass neck
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This is the exact opposite of what politics should be. Can you please get it taken down
@RicHolden
Labour when you ask for their plans to tackle illegal migration.
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To be fair, it is pitched right at his level
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The latest estimate suggests our economy is 5.5% smaller as a result of Brexit. My former colleagues don't want to talk about this (nor do Labour), but it explains something else they don't like: the high tax burden - tax revenues would be £40 billion higher 🧵 1/6
.
@johnspringford
has updated his cost of Brexit model for the second quarter of 2022.
Britain’s economy is 5.5% smaller as a result of Brexit.
#costofbrexit
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You cannot* simultaneously argue that Brexit has restricted firms'access to cheap EU labour and will therefore lead to better pay in certain sectors AND current labour shortages have nothing to do with restricting access to EU labour
* Actually you can, but you sound ridiculous
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One reason the tax burden is high is the economy is smaller than it would have been had we stayed in the EU - you need a bigger share of the smaller pie to pay for a given level of public services. Maybe you should have thought about that before campaigning to make us poorer...
Your a strange sort of conservative that wants ever more public spending , highest tax burden for 70 years & an economy that gives up under the weight of it all
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Can Brexiteers not see that if their explanation for why Brexit isn't going well is four consecutive PMs - one of them the leader of the Leave campaign - haven't done it properly, reasonable people might conclude the problem is the project itself, not how it has been implemented?
@GavinBarwell
A trap largely if your making Gavin. You considered the necessary response to the referendum as being a damage mitigation, rather than as opportunity exploitation. Lacking in vision, leadership. May, and to be fair, Johnson and Sunak have all been too timid.
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Not as easy as it looks for
@Keir_Starmer
today. The goal is so huge and so glaringly open that expectations are very high
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The nation regrets and dislikes this kind of politics
The National Trust regrettably dislikes our nation.
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Difficult to understand why the government is refusing to give EU diplomats full diplomatic status when a) we used to support this b) every other country does it and c) on Christmas Eve the PM spoke warmly about what close friends we would be
#mistake
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A kind offer, but my politics are of the liberal centre right. I haven't left the Conservative Party - it has left me. As a result I find myself increasingly homeless, and from the messages I get and conversations I have I think I am far from alone
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A new government, but still issuing lines to take that are not going to hold I see. If the Chancellor has been provided with a forecast by
@OBR_UK
then legislators - and indeed the public - have a right to see it
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This is even worse than his absurd Brexit analogy. It was true under Corbyn, it is NOT true now. And Conservatives should be celebrating that change, not lying about it. So depressing that we have a PM who can't rise above tribalism even during a grave international crisis
Boris Johnson alleges Labour would “raise the white flag” to Putin
Film by
@louisdegenhardt
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Respect to the 118 Conservative MPs who did the right thing last night by supporting the findings of their colleagues on the Privileges Committee. Disappointing that the Prime Minister was not among them - suspect he will come to regret it both politically and personally
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I cannot speak highly enough of the kindness I received from custodians, duty clerks, catering and cleaning staff during my two years in Number 10. Beneath contempt that they were subjected to this kind of treatment
this is grim in the Sue Gray report:
"I found that some staff had witnessed or been subjected to behaviours at work which they had felt concerned about...multiple examples of a lack of respect and poor treatment of security and cleaning staff"
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The deal
@DavidGHFrost
negotiated does not keep "open and free trade" between the UK and EU - it introduces significant barriers to trade. Dismissing the difficulties he has caused for many businesses as "the details of customs and form filling" adds insult to injury
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Man negotiates trade deal that *increases* barriers to trade; economy grows more slowly as a result, meaning higher tax rates are required to pay for the same level of public services; man complains about higher taxes
#physicianhealthyself
You can also read me in the
@telegraph
this morning, on why the
@hmtreasury
fixation with raising taxes is holding back growth and giving us a globally uncompetitive tax system.
I don't believe
@BorisJohnson
@RishiSunak
want this. Time to change it.
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This would be very funny if this guy was a satirist. Unfortunately he is the editor of a major Sunday newspaper
Blair and Brown still rule Britain. Rishi Sunak's only hope is to crush them
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I would go further. You can be pro-Israel and pro-Palestine, believing that Israelis and Palestinians deserve to live in security in their own state (and that both have often been badly led by people who seek to prevent that outcome)
I’m worried about a narrative that has been developing and I want to put this out there:
1. You can be pro-Israel and still care about people dying in Palestine.
2. You can be pro-Palestine and care about the terror in Israel and releasing hostages.
Both can be true.
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Ah, that's what we need: advice from the most unpopular politician in the country...
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