New paper. In the 2020 campaign, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, Trump took a stance out of line, not only with the public in general, but even with his own voters. It’s been forgotten, but even Trumpers were scared and wanted masks and aggressive gov’t action in 2020. 1/

RT @JohnHolbein1: Look at how much p-hacking happens in articles that use Mechanical Turk!

RT @jenniferdoleac: I often hear discussion of how the media should avoid reporting a criminal suspect's race or immigration status, to avo….

There’s no reason to be making these mistakes anymore. I’m reviewing my third paper in a row with obvious specification problems. Wrong fixed effects, wrong clustering, etc. In all three, I checked and GPT’s o3 also caught the main problems. If you’re a little unsure, ask it.

RT @lefineder: Homicide rates in Albanian villages, 1890-1910. Part of an ongoing pet project of mine to calculate historical rates of homi….

RT @jenniferdoleac: Reviewing typeset pages of my new book - coming in February 2026. 🥳. (It’s available for preorder now if you’re so incl….

RT @JakeMGrumbach: @GabeLenz We need everybody to understand it's just reduced form over first stage. Once we get there we can get back to….

RT @Bijoyetri4:

Instrumental variables is a false-positive machine! We’ve known this forever, but journals continue to publish them. Somehow 2SLS estimates are often larger than OLS, especially when the first stage is weak. Researchers are so good at explaining away that tell-tale pattern.

RT @lockhartm: Excited that our (@Apoorva__Lal, @xuyiqing, @zu_gary) paper won the Political Analysis' 2024 Editor's Choice award! . It wa….

RT @dwarkesh_sp: If you do everything.

RT @CSElmendorf: @dbroockman @aaronrkaufman & @GabeLenz find that voters who know nothing about an endorsing organization tend to infer fro….

RT @CSElmendorf: The problem with the CA ballot-measure law is that it lets almost anyone be a ballot-printed endorser. This is going to in….

o3’s already smarter than most people.

RT @Duderichy: people have no idea what life was like before they were born

RT @xikun_zhang_: We should have a leaderboard of which models can reason and think for the longest period of time. The record during our i….

RT @dbroockman: UC Berkeley is hiring an Assistant Professor this fall, with a preference for candidates in International Relations, Americ….

RT @omaclaren: David Freedman ‘Science and Statistics’

Link to the paper with @ericguntermann at @PolBehavior 14/.

For evidence on 12, see @johnmsides @CTausanovitch @vavreck The Bitter End.13/.

Even though voters didn’t learn they were out of line with Trump, it’s likely that Trump lost out on the sustained increase in support that leaders around the world received in the first year or two of COVID merely, it seems, for taking the virus seriously, if ineffectively. 12/.