Stay Vigilant
@ExcellRichard
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30 years as global prop & HF PM, current finance professor. Stay Vigilant Substack, CME's Excell with Options, Investment Exchange Forum podcast, daily LI chart
Illinois, USA
Joined October 2013
Was Jay Powell's speech the monetary policy equivalent of a turducken?.
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I see why stocks rally. I see why small caps rally the most. I also see why the dollar sinks and gold and crypto rally. The one thing I am not entirely sure is why the 10 years rallies. Who can help with that?.
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So the gist of Jay Powell seems to be "employment weakening but inflation still not under control (stagflation by the way) and that is hard. So we are going to cut rates and throw away the inflation target to make it easier".
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Why the FOMC shouldn't cut. I know they are going to cut but should they?. Financial conditions - above mean cut, below 0.5 sd hike. We are below 0.5 sd and instead of a hike we should cut?
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Hey @grok based on my posts, what are my political leanings with a score of 1 being extreme left and 100 being extreme right?.
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The weekly Stay Vigilant is now live. What is your perspective?. Stay Vigilant.
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RT @QuikCarp: Excell with Options: Navigating Oil Price Shifts with WTI Weekly Options. By Rich Excell @ExcellRichard . 07 Aug 2025. http….
cmegroup.com
Access the latest Excell with Options to read Rich Excell’s trading strategy with WTI Crude Oil options using CME Group market tools and analytics.
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St. Dymphna, a Saint we should all become more familiar with because we need her now more than ever.
hallow.com
St. Dymphna, a brave martyr from the seventh century, is the patron saint of those struggling with mental illness.
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Count me as one who think Jay Powell is doing the right thing (this time).
"There's nothing out there telling the Fed they should cut rates except for politicians." - @ExcellRichard now live on TWIFO at Show also available later today on major podcast platforms.
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Commodity market seems to agree with the bond market that the Fed needs to cut. Even with stocks at all-time highs?.
"The equity market thinks we're doing just fine. The bond market obviously has a different opinion. Who's going to break the tie. ? It's the commodity market. And we're seeing that in the big move in copper right now." - @ExcellRichard now live on TWIFO at
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Copper has been a bear to trade. How about that swing in skew?.
How have the tariffs impacted copper options, volatility and skew? Let's find out live today on TWIFO with @ExcellRichard at Show also available later today on major podcast platforms.
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Disagreement, by @ExcellRichard . Do stock, bond and commodity markets agree or disagree on the economy?.
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RT @QuikCarp: Excell with Options: Hedging Currency Risk with EUR/USD futures. By Rich Excell @ExcellRichard . 22 Jul 2025. https://t.co/….
cmegroup.com
Rich Excell examines how the value of the U.S. dollar has declined in the first six months of the year. Despite this, recent economic data from the EU has been relatively worse compared to the U.S.,...
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In the polls I took last week, overwhelmingly people voted inflation is set to head higher. How should we solve this? I explore that in my post below.
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That's what I'm sayin'.
S&P 500: All-time high.NASDAQ: All-time high.BITCOIN: All-time high.GOLD: All-time high.HOME PRICES: All-time high. Time for the Fed to cut rates.
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Treasury markets are key and tariffs are the driver.
Excell with Options: Navigating Tariff Deadline Uncertainty with Treasury Options. By Rich Excell @ExcellRichard.08 Jul 2025.
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