Eric Newcomer
@EricNewcomer
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Founder + author of Newcomer – a startups and VC newsletter & events company. Host summits, including Cerebral Valley AI Summit Subscribe
Crown Heights, Brooklyn
Joined April 2009
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We just announced a bunch of new speakers for Cerebral Valley New York on Thursday, June 27.
Here's the full slate of announced speakers:
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no atheists in a foxhole. no libertarians in a bank run
Where is Powell? Where is Yellen? Stop this crisis NOW. Announce that all depositors will be safe. Place SVB with a Top 4 bank. Do this before Monday open or there will be contagion and the crisis will spread.
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Sequoia invested in a $420m round in FTX at a $25B valuation in October 2021 and a consortium with Paradigm invested $400M at $32B in January 2022.
And now it's selling in a fire sale?
This is a truly crazy event in startup world. Dot-com bust level event
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Sequoia Capital has held firmly onto its shares of Bird.
The firm invested $139M in Bird.
The position is worth just $5.6M today.
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I wrote in June 2021 how Sam Altman’s departure from YC had been under explored
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@RMac18
The people who agreed to be hardcore but then failed code review have a worse exit package than the non-hardcore people? Seems like Elon is kicking the people who defended him
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Some crazy personal news: I've quit my wonderful job at Bloomberg in a pandemic to launch a subscription newsletter on startups and venture capital.
I'm calling it Newcomer
Read about here:
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Craft Ventures predicts this downturn could last 1.5 - 2 years and thinks the correction is more akin to post dot-com than 2008 recession because this market turn is so tech-centric
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Twitter board member Jack Dorsey snipes at Twitter’s board
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Tiger Global told investors this year that it invested $1.1 billion in ByteDance at a $460 billion valuation in 2021
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🚨🚨🚨 Coatue argued in a private presentation that it believed that Robinhood has "zero valuation support" and a "broken business model"
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I was terrified for my life to say anything about this before now … but Stripe has been forcibly taking a cut of my revenue since I started my newsletter
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@Jason
so much spin here. if this were part of a set of clearly articulated policies combatting doxxing no one would be freaking out. it's just the bans targeted at his specific problem that are ridiculous. he didn't even ban other jet accounts at first
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rooting against self-driving cars is one of the most hostile to human life progressive stances out there.
it is insane that we let humans drive cars. it is literally one of the main ways that people of all classes die.
if you ride in a Waymo, you will have little doubt that…
The torching of a Waymo car was not a random act of vandalism, as certain pundits want you to think, and it did not take place in a vacuum.
In fact, it's a major escalation in the growing revolt against Silicon Valley, and may just be the beginning:
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the silence from jack dorsey on all this is crazy, no?
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Airbnb ownership
Sequoia 13%
Brian 12%
Nate 11%
Joe 11%
Founders Fund 4%
Greylock 3.5%
a16z 3%
DST 2.3%
YC 2.2%
T Rowe 1%
General Atlantic 1%
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so undisclosed future a16z partner hosts event with a16z partner where a16z portfolio company does crisis PR but it's billed as this big organic thing with Elon Musk?
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a friend suggested this tweet. don't give me too much credit for humor here. lol
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Tiger's fees on this fund are quite something. The firm's management fees are on net asset value. So inflated valuations mean more management fees. And Tiger gets carry on private investments deal by deal so there's a strong incentive to find winners and shrug off losers
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most terrifying thing I've published since going independent. but sometimes you have to go against the crowd
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Brace yourself: analysts expect Uber to reveal a $4.96 billion QUARTERLY operating loss next week
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my life: reminding millionaires / billionaires they can afford a $15 a month subscription
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For people who were there... does this feel like dot-com bust level unwinding yet?
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@DavidSacks
Judd says Musk can do whatever he wants since it's a private website. You are the one saying free speech principles should be applied and it's hard not to point out the incoherence of that position hence the invocation of supreme court cases
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How do people listen to this propaganda? just listened to the 20 minute vc with Domm Holland.
Harry Stebbings says he abandoned his "British charm and ego stroking" for the interview. if that's true, wow, i cannot imagine the more credulous version of this show
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@elonmusk
@karaswisher
So there’s no roll over the money grey area here? Kind of stunning that they would get it flat out wrong
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Tiger Global's 1st and 2nd best private funds came in 2003 (post-dot com) and 2008 (financial crisis).
2003: 10.6X DPI (distributed cash to paid-in ratio)
2008: 7.3X DPI
Unfortunately those funds were only $73M and $1B.
Since 2018, Tiger has raised $26B+ to invest in startups
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Saudi Arabia discloses that it's a limited partner in Andreessen Horowitz, NEA, Craft Ventures, General Atlantic, Dragoneer, ICONIQ, Insight, and many others
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Sam Altman had been given a lot of power, the cloak of a nonprofit, and a glowing public profile that exceeds his more mixed private reputation.
He lost the trust of his board. We should take that seriously.
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why can't vox just say "relying on experts we downplayed the coronavirus a few months ago. if we knew then what we know now i would have written the story differently. and next time we'll cast my net for a wider array of experts"
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The Scam in the Arena
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OpenAI board really needs to provide facts behind the allegation that Sam Altman was "not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities" or team ouster is going to lose public opinion pretty quickly
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Kind of amazing the Marc Andreessen is a Facebook board member but his firm is an investor in Twitter and one of a16z's general partners is in Twitter war room
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Stripe is raising $6 billion at a $50 billion valuation, sources tell me.
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Sequoia, which led DoorDash's Series A, had to invest $217 million all told to maintain a 15.3% stake in the food delivery company
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Union Square Ventures ranked at the top of the first Founder's Choice Ranking.
They also have outstanding returns. I got my hands on their fund performance from the $65B Texas public investor UTIMCO.
USV has returned $1.18 billion to UTIMCO on $129 million invested.
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Here's
@mamoonha
's track record:
USVP
Box: IPO
Yammer: Sold to Microsoft for $1.2B
Social Capital
Slack: Sold to Salesforce for $27.7B
@kleinerperkins
Figma: Sold to Adobe for $20B
Rippling: Valued at $11.25B
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the engagement that you can get for shitposting on tech twitter relative to sharing substantive business stories is quite something
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if you don't do enough human content moderation then you're a careless steward of your technology
if you do too much content moderation then you're traumatizing the human content moderators
🚨Exclusive: OpenAI used outsourced Kenyan workers earning less than $2 per hour to make ChatGPT less toxic, my investigation found
(Thread)
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Here’s a list of startups that raised at unicorn status with single digit millions (or less) in annual recurring revenue
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no atheists in a foxhole. no libertarians in bank run. no free speech absolutists when tesla's business interests are at risk
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@elonmusk
you could release the information in a way that reporters could look through it themselves. many past big data investigations involved many outlets receiving access to the underlying information. your chosen reporters leaned heavily on framing, hype
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Substack lets writers reap most of value from their labor... but the critique is coming from the left?
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We were friends for a decade and then we fell in love!
Just married
@SjoeW
! Couldn't be happier. ❤️
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Here's Sam Bankman-Fried writing his investors: "I’m sorry I’ve been hard to contact the last few days—I wish I could have been more communicative during this process, but unfortunately I wasn’t able to be;things were coming together dynamically."
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@nrmehta
totally. I've been hitting the SPAC world -- scooters, quantum, autonomous. but man SBF is supposed to the good guy in crypto world. really raises questions about what the bottom looks like
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Here's what
@rabois
told me about adjusting to tech stock market turbulence
Read the rest here
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Andreessen Horowitz spent hundreds of millions of dollars to give Parker Conrad the practice he needed to build a company that would enrich Kleiner Perkins, Founders Fund, and Sequoia
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Bill Gurley on Uber's autonomous cars: “We probably burned $2.5 billion on autonomous. That was a waste of money." He says they should have spent it on food delivery instead.
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"tech bro" communicates just such unambiguous (and sexist) hostility / ad hominem. the fact that so much of the reporter class and other thoughtful people have stomached it (or worse deployed it) is just embarrassing. it's such a cliche at this point.
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Palantir is always on the cusp of turning a profit, making $1 billion and going public
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one contradiction of VCs warning about the market correction:
the people who aren't doing late stage deals -- Tiger, Altimeter, etc -- are being pretty quiet
but firms like a16z and Craft, which are loudly warning about the downturn, are still doing deals
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Here are the returns for one of the most secretive tech investors in late stage startups: ICONIQ Capital.
The firm returned $5.5 billion to investors last year.
Read this story to understand how they did it:
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Coatue believes that the market is failing to distinguish between technology companies.
Upbeat: Snap, Shopify, DoorDash, and Neftlix
Downbeat: Pinterest, Wayfair, Lyft, and Roku
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Garry Tan centering early-stage startups as what society stands to lose without some extra depositor protections seems smart.
The All-In hysteria, not so much. stoking fear & making arguments that don't line up with any ideological priors
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Where is the Twitter free speech crowd right now?
@DavidSacks
@pmarca
@antoniogm
Twitter even seems to be stifling independent coverage of censorship of the newsletter platform that shall not be named.
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@Jason
shameless framing games here. when it comes to moderation or the rule of law splitting hairs matters! that's what creates fairness. you wouldn't make the same case in a courtroom about police who broke the law getting evidence or lawyers violating oaths
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This
@CoinDesk
story on Alameda Research could end up being a hugely important story in the history of crypto.
@IanAllison123
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Former GitHub CTO Jason Warner Raises $26 Million for Foundation Model Code Startup
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can see why tech people get annoyed with "the media." feels like there's so much negative spin on the ball in this NYT Substack piece -- even though it is purportedly written in an "objective" style. would rather it were just an essay that made a clear argument
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saying that we can't engineer our way out of the climate crisis, or really that we shouldn't try, only fans fears that the climate crowd is more interested in trying to restructure society than actually solving the problem of too much carbon in the air
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any other country or government is free to try to create a better system for investing in new technology companies. but no one has found a better way so far. easy to criticize the status quo when the alternative is an unrealized utopia
My debut at
@Slate
: Venture capitalists are parasites who couldn't be trusted with the financial institution that held up their industry, let alone the direction of our technological development. Euthanizing them is imperative if we want a better world.
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Here's Fred Wilson at
@usv
at
@PrimaryVC
's NYC Summit:
"I think it's very tempting in this business to chase trends and I think it's not particularly profitable to do that."
He said idea made him want to chase crypto deals and not AI.
"When the whole industry goes one way the…
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why do we have to say "lived experiences" instead of just "experiences"
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re doordash confidential IPO filing
weird time to go public unless you need $$$ no matter what
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GitLab's backers made a killing
@khoslaventures
stake worth about $2B. It's a more than 150X return
@AugustCapital
worth about $1.6B. More than 100X return.
@GVteam
worth more than $900M. More than 47X return.
@ICONIQGrowth
$1.8 billion private stake. More than 9X return
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motion to reinstate ryan breslow as Bolt CEO so that he has less free time to tweet
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Union Square Ventures tops Founder's Choice VC rankings with Bowery Capital, Bonfire Ventures, Initialized Capital, and Y Combinator close behind
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Read the Bill McGlashan bit yourself. Just ctrl f
Worth reading. It's crazy. Head of TPG Growth and CEO of TPG's socially responsible investing!!!
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Profound. Here's what TPG's Bill McGlashan says after he learns that his son is going to be photoshopped to look like a football kicker, according to court filing -->
McGlashan: "The way the world works these days is unbelievable."
Read the Bill McGlashan bit yourself. Just ctrl f
Worth reading. It's crazy. Head of TPG Growth and CEO of TPG's socially responsible investing!!!
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Bessemer Venture Partners is a thoughtful firm in a world of loose money.
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Interesting slide on what metrics will attract capital in the downturn. Craft's Jeff Fluhr advocates for trading growth rate for run-rate
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Coatue's hedge fund returned 82% in 2020. Then chasing that high in 2021 Coatue was one of the most prolific private investors. But its hedge fund only returned 7% that year. Then as a market downturn decimated tech hedge funds, Coatue smartly shifted to cash
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This is the story of how Andreessen Horowitz disrupted the world of venture capital by cozying up to the media and then, how they purposefully threw that relationship away.
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@elonmusk
@karaswisher
Semafor with more info…
New: Here's the text message from
@elonmusk
telling SBF he's "welcome" to roll his public shares into Musk's twitter, as Liz reported
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Lyft was valued at $15.1 billion just last year and now has a market cap of $22.4 billion, up 48 percent.
That's a lot! Turns out public market investors don't think the private markets are crazy.
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@elonmusk
@karaswisher
What do you make of this? FT had a screenshot of FTX claiming they had Twitter shares… I mean get it’s hard to believe an alleged fraudster on anything at this point
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!!!
@LuisaRBeltran
@FortuneMagazine
reveals that Databricks CEO
@alighodsi
and MosaicML CEO
@NaveenGRao
first met at Cerebral Valley, the event I hosted in March with my friends at Volley.
Turned into a $1.3B deal
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I love reporting. I even like writing. But I hate *starting* to write.
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You can read the story and see other slides here
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Maybe boring Clubhouse interviews will bring the end of the war on media in tech
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Between OpenAI and now Inflection leadership hiring + simultaneous Inflection partnership, it feels like there's some expert antitrust avoidance on the part of Microsoft going on here.
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Here's
@wolfejosh
texting me about how people are still in the "denial" stage of grief about tech stocks unraveling
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Sequoia may have let more than $7 billion slip through its fingers by white-knuckling shares of DoorDash and Unity
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Microsoft’s Non-Acquisition Acquisition
...
Much of the blame for Microsoft’s creativity here falls at the feet of regulators: If regulators constantly (and unreasonably) block acquisitions, our greatest business minds will obviously find workarounds.
Capitalism finds a way.
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👀
you know what they say... running search ads against you is the best compliment
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I feel a bit naked publishing my internal metrics, but I’m someone who would scoop your metrics if I got my hands on them, so I figure it is only fair.
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@DouthatNYT
Why do conservatives believe in market prices for everything except the demonstrated desirability of New York
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“Most experts are experts in a previous version of the world, not the one that's happening, or the ones entrepreneurs want to create.”
@vkhosla
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Here's
@ericvishria
email to the
@benchmark
partnership back in 2014 about what he saw in Confluent
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