DeFiyst
@DeFiyst
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Full time degen, part time DeFi Analyst. Intern @splitcapital
Joined September 2021
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1/10 Celsius on-chain positioning update🧵
TL;DR: Significantly healthier.
Celsius continue to find more shekels, adding to their collateral across the board for 3 main positions:
1) Maker wBTC Vault now has a liquidation price of $14k, having paid down more of their DAI debt
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🚨 Here we go again🚨
152k Ether 2% away from being liquidated.
This account is close to the danger zone once again, so another 150k ETH could be liquidated, though I believe Aave would liquidate a maximum of 50% of this.
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The lesser known Uniswap Co-Founder (JChan) dumped his whole $HAY stack in 1 transaction for 92ETH, and it wicked to 0.
Given Hayden burnt the vast majority of the supply, JChan was the largest real holder. Funds sent to jchan.eth afterwards.
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🚨 Celsius just moved 67k Ether ($72m) to the wallet they usually send tokens to exchange before dumping.
They withdrew 30k Ether from Aave, 37k Ether from Compound. First time in 3 weeks that they've reduced collateral in these positions.
@CelsiusNetwork
Just paid down another $50m in debt for their Aave position 😮
Health factor now 2.77.
($15m paid back yesterday also).
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This Whale has 9 lives. Aggressive bounce just before ChainLink oracle updated AGAIN.
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Only another 12% down in BTC for Celsius to be liq'd for $450m on-chain
Health factor being so close to 1 with users funds is an abuse of their fiduciary duty
Last time this was topped up was during LUNA liq cascade (May 12th) for negligible size (1k BTC) Vs 18k BTC collateral
-
#Celsius
17,919wBTC ($450M)
@CelsiusNetwork
@Mashinsky
wBTC
@MakerDAO
Health factor - 1.09, wBTC LIQUDATES at $22,535
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Amidst the noise surrounding the Aave ETH whale teetering on the edge of liquidation, and the inactive Solend user getting worryingly close also,
@CelsiusNetwork
have fully paid down their $LINK Maker position ($37m).
Interesting.
1)
@CelsiusNetwork
Relatively unchanged. more debt DAI paid down on the wBTC Maker vault, liq now $13.6k. $LINK vault unchanged since Wednesday.
More activity in the Aave wallet - $20m of both DAI and USDC paid down in the last 24 hrs. Health factor now 1.44.
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With Celsius out the clear in the short-term with their on-chain positions, all eyes are now on 3AC.
3AC supposedly owns this wallet, and 8k ETH has just been liquidated - 0x716034c25d9fb4b38c837afe417b7f2b9af3e9ae
1/10 Celsius on-chain positioning update🧵
TL;DR: Significantly healthier.
Celsius continue to find more shekels, adding to their collateral across the board for 3 main positions:
1) Maker wBTC Vault now has a liquidation price of $14k, having paid down more of their DAI debt
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Updates to my Celsius on-chain positioning thread;
@CelsiusNetwork
are paying down a lot of debt right now.
$40m and then $20m USDC in from their FTX acc. This was all flipped into DAI through
@1inch
using
@MakerDAO
's PSM.
1/10 Celsius on-chain positioning update🧵
TL;DR: Significantly healthier.
Celsius continue to find more shekels, adding to their collateral across the board for 3 main positions:
1) Maker wBTC Vault now has a liquidation price of $14k, having paid down more of their DAI debt
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Anon tip-off in DMs.
Seems like a reasonable explanation until proven otherwise...
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With ETH nuking this 3AC wallet is ABOUT to be liquidated. Liq price ~ $1,018 ETH.
All eyes on ChainLink oracle now
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10/10
This account has 8x the number of followers it had yesterday lol. Shoutout to everyone who has been closely monitoring this alongside me 🫡
@HsakaTrades
@lawmaster
@SplitCapital
@0xShual
@TheDeFiDan
@Timccopeland
@nanexcool
@MikeBurgersburg
@SmallCapScience
&many others
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Ongoing
@friendtech
MEV war on Base is wild.
These bots have improved exponentially since
@functi0nZer0
and
@meoawtistic
open sourced the first snipers last week.
Take
@LomahCrypto
's launch below, for example. Shares holding strong 0.4-0.5E range, you do the math.
Strongest
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No fucking way the guy who was rekt being short GME is now short ETH lmao
Making me more bullish
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Why does the Aptos Foundation homepage link to a High School Baseball fan site and an empty GitHub...
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Regarding
@happydelio
@haruinvest
news:
This "8.1bn" figure is actually in KRW.
So.... $6m USD in alts.
.global website gives USD, .io site gives KRW.
Misleading as fuck.
1/3
Delio halted deposits this morning (essentially Korean blockfi)
Holds $1b in BTC, $200M in ETH but claims $8.1B in alts.
As far as I can tell, a lot of these assets stem from them leveraging their VASP to provide for other apps like Haru.
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As promised, updating on any sizable moves:
All DAI debt paid down in
@CelsiusNetwork
wBTC maker vault and collateral removed ($450m in BTC).
I'd imagine they already have an OTC deal setup. Doubt this hit the spot markets but we shall see.
Updates to my Celsius on-chain positioning thread;
@CelsiusNetwork
are paying down a lot of debt right now.
$40m and then $20m USDC in from their FTX acc. This was all flipped into DAI through
@1inch
using
@MakerDAO
's PSM.
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Wow... so Babel's withdrawal freeze & losses were predominantly from directionally trading funds?!
They blamed Celsius & 3AC when they had limited exposure themselves and it seems that the majority of capital lost from lack of hedging?
Embarrassing...
SCOOP: Babel Finance lost over $280 million in proprietary trading with customer funds
By
@Yogita_Khatri5
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WILD stats.
@CelsiusNetwork
's wBTC wallet has 8% of ALL wBTC in circulation and is 74% of all Maker wBTC?!
Shows how reliant we are on
@MakerDAO
auctions to ensure this can be fairly liquidated (if we get there) and
@BitGo
(BTC wrapper)
74% of all wBTC on Maker is in Celsius Maker vault, we're really trusting
@MakerDAO
liquidation mechanism here.
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This ACTUALLY happened!😱
Someone filled the final PoW block by minting a VanityBlock NFT!
They paid 30.2 ETH with a 1.3 ETH TX fee for the privilege of capping out the 30 million gas limit and creating the final transaction!
Legend🤝
@0xWittgenstein
Mint a VanityBlock-style NFT to fill the final block(s) and pay a ton in tips to screw over last minute MEV bots & speculators.
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Since this prior thread took off, ETH is now 3 figs, and BTC is below 2017 all time highs.
Now is a good time to do an update to my prior 🧵
Will focus on:
1) Celsius on-chain update
2) Aave ETH whale movements
3) Three Arrows
4) Babel Finance & miner situ
5) BlockFi & misc
1/10 Celsius on-chain positioning update🧵
TL;DR: Significantly healthier.
Celsius continue to find more shekels, adding to their collateral across the board for 3 main positions:
1) Maker wBTC Vault now has a liquidation price of $14k, having paid down more of their DAI debt
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"Now, Sam Bankman Fried, or should I say inmate 14372"
LOL. Sherman misses on most over point, but you gotta admit, this is fucking hilarious.
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Gm. New day, new Celsius wallet movements.
@CelsiusNetwork
are removing more Aave collateral (2m BAT, 1m SNX, 2m LINK, and 25k ETH).
Total of ~$45m. Heading through intermediary wallets to FTX.
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@oooitscrime
Have to agree with
@Fade
here.
What the fuck is going on? Why are the Co-Founders of Uniswap rugging OG shitcoins for under 100 Ether?
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They just got in $74m USDC from FTX, so it looks like this ETH was sold OTC -
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@LidoFinance
has now officially flipped the king
@CurveFinance
by TVL according to
@DefiLlama
, taking the
#1
spot. Quite impressive.
(Note this excludes CRV staked in Curve)
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They added another 3k BTC to this, now moving to 0x019.. which is their pre-exchange wallet.
$500m in BTC very likely to hit the markets.
@CelsiusNetwork
@SplitCapital
Nvm, looks like they're moving to their intermediary wallets which end up at FTX. Looks like it will be sold after all.
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Any second now. For context, the exact liquidation price is $895.4.
Need either the USDC/ETH or USDT/ETH Oracle to update with another tiny deviation and it will happen.
(USDC Oracle closer at this point)
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4/10
Observations:
The above position alone constitutes 47% of ALL borrowed DAI in Compound and 25% of ALL borrowed USDC.
Insane to think how much of DeFi TVL is dominated by the few as
@lawmaster
alludes to here:
@HsakaTrades
I don't think people realize how much of DeFi is actually just Celsius parking their client money. If they wind all of that out, TVL will tank so badly. Also, a lot of prop funds and market makers borrow undercollateralized from them. The impact would be massive
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Key points:
-Airdrop is linear (whales haven't been screwed)
-15% to airdrop, of which 1/3rd is at TGE
-First snapshot 15th Mar, so early farmers receive majority on TGE
-"90%" claimable from first season -> I read this as token vest for largest wallets (similar to ENA)
BREAKING: EigenLayer reveals plan for token airdrop with 15% allocation to stakers
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He didn't stop there, jchan then went on dump the majority of the supply of $JCD (the second Uniswap pool every created), dumping over half the supply on speculators that jchan may burn the majority of the supply (similar to Hayden).
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9/10
Overall
@CelsiusNetwork
and
@Mashinsky
are in a significantly better spot than they were since I started tweeting about this yesterday (below)
Has been fun to closely track movements on-chain and keep ya'll updated. Lets hope the worst is behind us
Only another 12% down in BTC for Celsius to be liq'd for $450m on-chain
Health factor being so close to 1 with users funds is an abuse of their fiduciary duty
Last time this was topped up was during LUNA liq cascade (May 12th) for negligible size (1k BTC) Vs 18k BTC collateral
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@CelsiusNetwork
Just paid down another $50m in debt for their Aave position 😮
Health factor now 2.77.
($15m paid back yesterday also).
Updates to my Celsius on-chain positioning thread;
@CelsiusNetwork
are paying down a lot of debt right now.
$40m and then $20m USDC in from their FTX acc. This was all flipped into DAI through
@1inch
using
@MakerDAO
's PSM.
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@CelsiusNetwork
are very active on-chain ATM, pulling in various tokens into their 0xEf2 wallet and then transferring to main Aave/Comp wallet (0x8AC).
They moved in the $37m in LINK (previously in Maker vault, see below), $13m in SNX, $2m in BAT, $1.5m in UNI, $1m in SUSHI.
Amidst the noise surrounding the Aave ETH whale teetering on the edge of liquidation, and the inactive Solend user getting worryingly close also,
@CelsiusNetwork
have fully paid down their $LINK Maker position ($37m).
Interesting.
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CRV turned into a game theoretical western standoff, who fires the first bullet?
Intern calculates the optimal payoff as
(+3, -1) -> (nuke position now, reputational loss)
>This was not the Curve Wars I was promised in 2022.
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Quick dive into the Maple fuckery + some overlooked points and my thoughts...
TL;DR:
@OrthoTrading
likely rekt, retail lose out again.
Severe incompetence from both
@maplefinance
and
@M11Credit
whom allowed this to happen🧵
Orthogonal Trading misrepresented its financial position to M11 Credit, and we sever all ties with the firm.
As a technology provider, not a lender, the Maple protocol is open and working in the best interest of all stakeholders.
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Our Aave whale's 212k ETH is safe for now. It was on the edge of liquidation. Despite wicking below on many major CEXs,
@chainlink
's oracle price didn't go below the threshold for liqs
Either the whale has deep pockets or someone did not want to see this being liq'd
HF now 1.10
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Holy shit.
Nexus Mutual deposited 15.3k Ether into the
@M11Credit
WETH pool on Maple 3 months ago and haven't withdrawn (69% of the pool!)
TX - 0x6728da3222ec225303fa94e4fb3f0835bd2ff319719eb432fd915b9c593bc969
h/t
@DegenSpartan
,
@0xSuperTrooper
We’re excited to announce that 15,348 ETH has been deployed into our
@enzymefinance
vault and deposited in
@Maven11Capital
's wETH pool on
@maplefinance
🥞
Learn about the vital role
@chainlink
Proof of Reserve plays in Nexus Mutual’s recent investment 👇
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@HsakaTrades
If neither of these hit the deviation threshold on another slight drop and it's up only from here, for our ETH whale to never be liquidated, this moment will go down in history.
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Holy fuck. USDT/ETH oracle updated and it's SO close.
(0.001116556 Vs 0.0011168)...
Keep in mind there's a USDC component to this also (Tether is majority tho).
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This tweet pisses me off the most.
It's like he considers his user's as cannon fodder for his multi-year-long war.
Reads like a sick and twisted King fighting over a throne, throwing peasants (users) into the battlefield to be slaughtered in the name of House FTX.
Disgusting.
20) At some point I might have more to say about a particular sparring partner, so to speak.
But you know, glass houses. So for now, all I'll say is:
well played; you won.
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8K
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@ChainLinkGod
rightfully corrected me. Aave only uses the ChainLink pairs with ETH denominations.
For liq to occur will need the USDT/ETH oracle to go to 0.0011168 Ether (~1.1% off from this oracle price)
[not including USDC]
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What % chance do you think is currently priced in for an ETH etf by the end of 2024?
<10%
1556
10%-25%
1181
25%-50%
846
>50%
1152
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Wtf is going on here.
Justin just froze FTX's Tron address.
$17m in TRX, $46m in USDT
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Week in Summary:
1) Celsius withdrawal freeze ($28bn AuM 7 mths ago)
2) 3AC likely insolvent (~$10bn AuM)🫡
3) BTC below 2017 ATH & ETH temp 3 figs
4) 152k Ether 0.02% away from being liq'd on Aave twice
5) Solend Gov vote w/$700k dictates $270m in assets
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Gm, withdrawal queue gonna be stacked for a while
Celsius will unstake existing ETH holdings, which have provided valuable staking rewards income to the estate, to offset certain costs incurred throughout the restructuring process
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Tether truthers in disbelief - USDT trading at a premium across Binance, FTX, and Kraken against USDC & BUSD.
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Well this was incredibly accurate.
3AC's attempt to obfuscate movement of stETH to then sell was quite poor. Check the chain;
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Still waiting. Rarely do they take this long on intermediary wallet TXs.
Regardless, this is the largest Celsius withdrawal we've seen.
24.5k wBTC ($0.5bn!).
Lets see if this hits the markets 🫡
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OMG!😭Can't believe Ethereum is above 2000!
Thank you Huobi team ! ❤️ keep doing the great work. 💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻🚀🚀🚀
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Some sniper bots absolutely killing it.
0xCC has only been active for 13hrs but has printed 250 Ether?! They've fired 132k TXs!!
Most of this PnL has been made in the last 24-48hrs for many given recent share snipes have been concentrated between a few addresses/contracts.
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FTX Estate casually missing out on >half a yard at current val.
Idk why the UC debtors panic sold their stake back to Mysten Labs.
@cmsholdings
nailed it here, and current FDV is even double his prediction. Sure, apply an OTC SAFT discount, still 9 figs missed.
h/t
@0xG00gly
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Long time coming.
Sick of seeing this shit across my feed. Frequently incorrect, unhinged takes to drive max engagement and spread lies.
Hopefully with others doing the same he'll receive less engagement and high profile names on his braindead spaces🤞
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Tomorrow we'll be launching ENA²_labs - we'll be borrowing spot ENA from the Ethena Foundation, selling, and using the cash to long ENA perps.
We'll use this delta neutral position to issue a synthetic stable called sUSDee, expected to yield 160% APR.
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@CelsiusNetwork
wBTC now moved. 0 Compound debt or assets. End of an era.
$824m of on-chain debt paid down over the duration of exactly one month today (Zapper screenshot from June 13th).
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Weirdest part is that this seemed preordained.
There was a $JCD telegram group created 4 days ago, with some chatter on twitter after years of nothing?
Retroactive public goods funding for... Uniswap Co-Founders?
@oooitscrime
Hayden's tweet for context
Five years ago, before the launch of Uniswap v1, I deployed a token called HayCoin to use for testing. This was back when gas was so cheap that mainnet could be used as as a testnet. After the launch of v1, I created a small test liquidity pool with a tiny fraction of the total
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0.01 BTC in (test amount). Fair to assume the $0.5bn in BTC is all going to FTX now.
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Celsius has removed the majority of their final position.
(6.9k wBTC, $132m).
Only 1 more de-levering cycle to go until it's all off-chain. (excl. CEL & staked Ether).
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They could be going OTC with this, but usually just dump spot once they withdraw to exchange from here (usually within 24h).
Could be psyops, but strongly doubt it.
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Having done some more digging, I don't think this was an OTC transaction.
Both the USDC & Ether have been stagnant for a while, awaiting movement. Maybe the Celsius intern went for lunch.
The prior connections with this clusterfuck of wallets linked w/0x413..
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@cobie
Yup..
If you noticed the
@Ronin_Network
exploit on the day and got short AXS on ~2x leverage, you would've been liquidated before this news even broke
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Extremely close now. Closely monitoring mempool TXs in and out of these wallets (and main Celsius ones).
This user providing some final advice. 不要慌，要沉稳
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UPDATE: $27.5m DAI transferred into the wBTC
@CelsiusNetwork
wallet.
If this is used to pay down debt, their new liquidation price will move to $15,182.
@TheDeFiDan
UPDATE:
@CelsiusNetwork
added more BTC to their collateral overnight (now sitting at $545m in collateral, 24k BTC).
If they had not added over the last couple of days they would've been liquidated several hours ago.
They now have more breathing room (-26%) until liqs begin.
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New message from *binance.eth.
"Everyone says I'm a contrarian trader, so I just sold 100 ETH to help you".
Didn't realise
@DegenSpartan
spoke Chinese
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So it begins. 353m USDT heading to Tether treasury on-chain. Up to 80bps for an arbooor (close to $3m in gains).
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Congratz to whomever sold some $WIF for $40 on Bybit spot listing, even if it was small size.
To the buyer: Seek help
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Reminder: This was tweeted LESS than 24h ago.😡
The Chapter 11 Bankruptcy INCLUDES FTX US.
Lying through his teeth amidst already certain peril. Tragic.
Would be intrigued to see FTX US withdrawals map over last 24h to see what was extracted from that entity since this tweet.
19) A few other assorted comments:
This was about FTX International. FTX US, the US based exchange that accepts Americans, was not financially impacted by this shitshow.
It's 100% liquid. Every user could fully withdraw (modulo gas fees etc).
Updates on its future coming.
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Although this position is now only worth $42m and is on the verge of being liquidated, it's hard to fathom how much ETH this is.
At ETH ATH of $4.8k, this positions collateral was over $1bn.
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FTX is bankrupt yet the exchange is still trading and insiders/"Bahamas Residents" are still extracting funds while everyone everyone is forced to watch.
Disgusting.
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Binance casually moving $2.8bn of ETH for 32 cents in TX fees.
Throwback to when the first few 10 fig TXs got huge publicity.
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P.S. This does not mean I am bullish $CEL. If anything, this makes me more bearish (soz Celsians) 🫡
I may explain my short thesis in a thread later if there's interest.
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If you noticed the
@Ronin_Network
exploit on the day and got short AXS on ~2x leverage, you would've been liquidated before this news even broke
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Couple interesting observations from new
@CelsiusNetwork
Bankruptcy docs (snapshot 2 wks after they fully de-levered on-chain):
1/ stETH was not sold OTC
2/ This confirms Celsius own 95.1% of $CEL token supply
3/ They are even more fucked than I thought
@CelsiusNetwork
wBTC now moved. 0 Compound debt or assets. End of an era.
$824m of on-chain debt paid down over the duration of exactly one month today (Zapper screenshot from June 13th).
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Another 10% reduction in debt on their wBTC Maker vault. Liquidation price now $12.2k.
They had previously paid down their $LINK vault here also:
@CelsiusNetwork
are very active on-chain ATM, pulling in various tokens into their 0xEf2 wallet and then transferring to main Aave/Comp wallet (0x8AC).
They moved in the $37m in LINK (previously in Maker vault, see below), $13m in SNX, $2m in BAT, $1.5m in UNI, $1m in SUSHI.
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FWIW, if you try and pull a bank run on USDT, the optimal time to do it is late on Friday heading into the weekend such that TradFi markets are closed and if positioned badly, Tether could struggle to exit non-cash equivs.
It's a Thursday folks. What am I missing here?
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