Dan Goss
@DanGoss222
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Senior researcher @demos looking into tax and wealth inequality
Joined September 2021
- Budget tax rises raising £36bn(!): 18% of Labour defectors say it's a reason they won't vote Labour - Cut winter fuel payments raising £1.5bn: 35%(!) of defectors say it's a reason won't vote Labour The public really, really do not like spending cuts!
What are the main reasons voters have switched from Labour? Winter fuel allowance trumps all else. After that, impatience over public services + cost of living. Immigration less salient. Net Zero of no salience whatsoever. Scandals less than I expected. via @YouGov
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Is inheritance tax the most hated tax? Why are farmers up in arms about recent changes? That and much more on inheritance tax is discussed on the latest @finan_fairness podcast with @David_Sturrock @TheIFS and @DanGoss222 @Demos Lister here: https://t.co/VCOyMmDrEc
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The Autumn Budget saw historic changes to inheritance tax... but what does that mean and is there more to be done? I really enjoyed discussing these questions and more with @Mubin_Haq for the @finan_fairness podcast. Check it out below👇
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The Autumn Budget saw historic changes to inheritance tax - but what does that mean and what more is there to do? I had a lot of fun discussing these questions with @Mubin_Haq for the @finan_fairness podcast 👇
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I've been leading @Demos's Future Public Services Taskforce for the past year. On Wednesday we launched our blueprint for public service reform alongside @Georgia_Gould, Cabinet Office Minister for public sector reform. Quick thread on our proposals... 1/
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2) "A 300 acre farm would pay £0.5m IHT" ...Even taking his top estimate that land costs £10k/acre (£3m of land), a single farmer could pay max £400k & a married couple £200k on that They can also carry over other allowances, so if their other wealth is <£1m, the tax wd be less
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.@RoryStewartUK came out with some big falsehoods this episode: 1) "300 acres is a very small farm" ...but 76% of UK farms are under 250 acres. Almost half of farms are under 50 acres
Question Time: Farmer vs Starmer, courting China, and the purpose of COP Join @campbellclaret and @RoryStewartUK as they discuss: 🚜 Whether Labour picked the wrong fight by enraging farmers 🌳 What is the purpose of COP when it keeps being held in petrostates? 🇺🇸 Can the
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Classic meaningless poll that asks people about a tax cut with no consideration of the trade offs. This one even gives the argument in favour. If I ask people whether the government should spend £7bn on X or Y, chances are they'll agree, because it presents a world of free money
🚨 Should Keir Starmer scrap the planned inheritance tax changes for farmers? From April 2026, inherited agricultural assets over £1m will face a 20% tax, half the usual rate. Farmers argue that because they are cash poor, this could force them to sell assets to pay the tax.
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She only has to say this b/c lots of people are incorrectly using the DEFRA figures, which relate to farm size rather than estate value. But for inheritance tax we should be concerned only with estate value (and e.g. one wealthy landowning estate may own 10 farms)
@WillsCharityLaw @turbotechdog @SJLaing @StuartMaggs Also, a classic of the genre - "HMRC and Defra data are consistent, because they describe different things." Which makes Einstein's General Theory or Relativity and the Laws of Cricket consistent too, but only one is helpful in deciding if a batsman's out LBW
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It needs to be said again... it's not the value of farms that matters for inheritance tax, it's the value of estates. One v wealthy estate can own many farms, and escape tax on all that wealth Journalists: use the HMT numbers, not the DEFRA numbers (see below)
📢PSA on Farming Stats aka why do @hmtreasury and @DefraGovUK numbers lead to different conclusions on number of farm(er)s affected by the recent #Budget2024 #IHT changes🧐 #FamilyFarmTax #taxtwitter
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Clarkson claiming 96% of farms will pay inheritance tax after the Budget changes... He admits the figure is made up, but it's in a completely different ballpark Current data suggests it will be maximum 27%, but probably more like 7%...
“So it’s not about you, it’s not about your farm and the fact you bought a farm to avoid inheritance tax?” @vicderbyshire speaks to Jeremy Clarkson at the farmers’ protest in Westminster where thousands of farmers are protesting the government’s inheritance tax plans.
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Big day for reasoned debate on farms/inheritance today - a debate undermined by @BBCNews repeatedly and wrongly reporting as fact that “farms worth more than £1m would have to pay inheritance tax”. This is just flatly wrong in vast vast majority of cases
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Our research echoed this. Talking about 'millionaire farmers' makes it personal & the public feel it's the politics of envy But the public do care deeply about fairness & removing loopholes. The tax break for farms was used as a loophole & getting rid was needed to make it fair
🧵Think it's a big mistake to think that using phrases like 'millionaire farmers' will turn public opinion against farmers protest or in favour of the IHT rise for farms- misunderstands A) particular role farmers have in public imagination B) once you're explaining you're losing
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The argument is more complex for farms, but I suspect Musk hasn't engaged with any of the arguments in the UK context. For that context, see my piece here:
labourlist.org
After last week’s landmark Budget, a debate is heating up on the reforms to inheritance tax. As expected, some of those seeing their tax breaks…
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He also claims to hate subsidies, but a tax break for farms is effectively just that...
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Mr Efficiency doesn't seen to get how tax breaks cause inefficiencies... The tax break for farms distorts incentives, causing: - Wealthy ppl to buy farmland to avoid IHT, pushing up rents for farmers - Ppl to hold farms until death, even if inefficient & they would rather sell
Britain is going full Stalin
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If arguing this, you have to face the trade-offs. If we scrap inheritance tax, we either need to: 1) Raise another tax, likely shifting the tax burden from the wealthiest 1% (who pay >half of IHT) onto poorer ppl 2) Cut public spending or borrow £7bn (but no one wants this⬇️)
Inheritance tax should be scrapped wholesale, including for farmers. UK inheritance tax is now among the highest in the Western world. There’s no such tax in Canada or New Zealand, and where it exists in Europe, it’s usually at a lower rate. It’s immoral.
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The debate around inheritance tax on farms is heating up, but crucial facts and context are often missing Check out my piece for LabourList on what to know about the changes👇
"A few loud voices should not be prioritised over the concerns of the wider British public. A reality check is in order." Demos' @DanGoss222 busts five myths about Labour's inheritance tax reform: https://t.co/USzev8oAER
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2019-20 data is here: https://t.co/LW1S1Iuonr For 2020-21 data, we at Demos submitted an FOI to HMRC
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