For entertainment (not a recommendation) what I am doing for "higher for longer":. A (civilian) replication of a trade I did for my personal account yesterday. Options on FFG6 (February 2026 Fed Funds Futures) that expire on 2/27/26; after the Jan 28 FOMC, but before the Mar 18.

New Commentary. The Russian author Anton Chekhov famously advised writers to "not put a loaded rifle on the stage if no one is thinking of firing it". President Trump has placed the “Tariff gun” on the table; we cannot unsee it. And as Chekhov has suggested, it was put.

Panic update. $MOVE Index (live) is now at 172, a level only touched in:.1) Oct 1998 LTCM collapse.2) Sep 2008 Lehman collapse .3) Mar 2023 SVB collapse.Note - Mar 2020 Covid peak was 164. This is the bond market "stop out" trade, the Hedge Funds are unwinding all their

Time for the infamous 2 1/2 day rule. ?? . I abhor market timing, but it is my experience that when $hit happens, the market peaks and reverses 2.5 days after ignition. Day 1 is shock .Day 2 is panic, prayer and a call from Risk.Mid-Day 3, capitulation and the position is

$MOVE vs $VIX inflection. The popular story of 2023 was the massive increase in the MOVE Index (orange -bond volatility) vs the decline in the VIX Index (white - equity volatility). We are now back to our regularly scheduled programming of a rising VIX relative to the MOVE.

Don't be distracted by shiny objects. from my last Commentary. "I will say I do not know if changes to Tariff and Tax policies are bullish or bearish; but what I know for sure is that if the US Government tries to deport more than the 75,000 illegal immigrants who have been.

Trade like the Professionals. The pro's (@profplum99) do not buy zero-coupon bonds when they want "hard" Duration, they buy the product contained in the Bond Bull. It is unclear why the 25+ Zero ETF has $1.63bn AUM when the Bond Bull will crush it with 1.6x the Duration and 3.5x

New Commentary: "Got Duration ?". Most financial managers use Duration to build a balanced portfolio to reduce volatility. With a Duration of nearly 40, my new NYSE-listed Bond Bull has 2.5x the horse power of the popular $53bn AUM UST +20yr ETF; and its Convexity allows it to

“Buy vol” (convexity) near an inflection point….and T30yr at 5.0% is an inflection point. The Trade: Sell UST 20+ ETF vs Buy the "Bond Bull" strategy (~7yr expiry call option on T10yr). The Convexity will soften a further rates back up, while super charging a bond rally.

Wither 60/40 ??. For the past two decades, Investment portfolios (as well as Hedge Fund fortunes) have been built on the 60%/40% stock//bond allocation that relies upon their inverse correlation. This may soon end as interest rate near 5.0%. Why. ?. 1) Discounting equity

I rarely respond on this channel, but for clarity on my Stocking Stuffers and Macro-view:. I am not "selling products for a fee"; rather I have created products to allow civilians to access my best ideas via an NYSE-listed vehicle since usually only professionals can buy.

The 2025 Stocking Stuffers. Come this time every year, I publish a list of “Investments” that I think will do well over the intermediate horizon – two to five years. >>> My Macro-view has not changed much: Higher for longer and T10yr "fair value" near.

The Walmart of Duration. more for less !. The new NYSE-listed "Bond Bull" has a duration of 2.5x the UST 30yr, and 6x the convexity. yet only a 15% dollar allocation matches the duration of the Bond Aggregate Index. What will you do with all those conserved $$ ?

Introducing the NYSE-listed "Bond Bull" strategy; It is duration on steroids (43 years vs 16.6 for the UST 20+ year ETF). It's only asset is a 7-year expiry (March 2032) call option on the 10yr, K = 3.25%. Invest only 40% of the dollars to have a superior "modeled" profile.

Options market forecasting - UPDATE:. Bond: Implied = + /- 17bp; Actual = -16.8bp .SPX: Implied = + /- 102pts; Actual = 120 pts.Gold: Implied = + /- $44; Actual = -$81. MOVE prior = 130; now 117.VIX prior = 20.49; now 15.87. Good luck today. hb. @profplum99.

Election "break even" analysis. UST 10yr rate: 17bps; 1.33 points.$MOVE now @ 136. SPX: 1.8% or 102 points.$VIX now @ 20.3. Gold: 1.6% or $44. Let's hope it's a clear victory. either way. @profplum99 @biancoresearch @LukeGromen @EconguyRosie @jam_croissant @dampedspring.

Knock, knock. it's MBS Opportunity !!. The spread of MBS over UST is a function of:.1) Shape of Yield Curve (2s vs 10s).2) Implied Vol ( $MOVE Index). May 2021.MBS @ +25bp (MOVE = 60, Curve = +150bp). May 2023.MBS @ +190bp (MOVE = 160, Curve = -85bp). Sep 2024.MBS @ +115bp

Volatility Tale of the Tape. since 1990:. $MOVE Average: 92.6.$MOVE Current: 128.7. $VIX Average: 19.27.$VIX Current: 19.02. Options market price for "Election event":.Interest rates: 18bps.SP 500: 2%.