Capriole Investments
@capriole_fund
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Bitcoin and digital asset hedge fund deploying a fully autonomous quantitative strategy. Objective: outperform Bitcoin. Est. 2019. Posts not investment advice.
Joined May 2021
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Introducing SLRV Ribbons. A simple on-chain strategy that outperforms
#Bitcoin
, generating 3X the returns over the last 5 years.
Read more:
Live metric on
@glassnode
:
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274
The Digital Asset Thesis -
In times like these it's easy to forget the bigger picture.
Here's 10 charts we find most compelling for the future of
#Bitcoin
and digital assets.
Let's zoom out and focus on the long-term.
🧵
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Hash Ribbons is back. Perhaps the best long-term Bitcoin buy signal there is, Hash Ribbons is now tempting us with a new Miner Capitulation...
Read more in Issue 51:
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In this month's newsletter:
- Why the Fed pivot is just around the corner.
- Why assets are not overvalued.
- Why Shiller PE ratio is broken.
- Why peak fear is priced in.
... and much more. Check out our macro special!
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Bitcoin’s deep value is slipping away and in its place a new market structure is emerging.
A momentum driven shift. A new regime.
Issue 28 breaks down why we believe this is the start of a new cyclical bull market. Dive in:
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Did you know that you just have to allocate 5% of your investment portfolio to Bitcoin in order to see a substantial performance improvement? See below 👇
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🗞️Newsletter Issue
#25
: Can you buy $1 for 50 cents?
- Bitcoin Yardstick is showing value not seen since $4K.
- Bitcoin Energy Value at a -54% discount
- Long-term holder capitulation has occurred
- Fewer and fewer investors are leave Bitcoin each year
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12
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Introducing the Capriole Macro Index
10 years of data and over 100,000 data points across more than 35 on-chain and macro market metrics are fed into our fundamentals only machine learning
#Bitcoin
valuation model.
Price data is not used.
Learn more:
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Today’s Bitcoin ETF launch was the most successful launch in history and paves the way for institutional adoption.
Read more:
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MASS CAPITULATION
The raw count of evidence for capitulation today is immense. Each occurrence of these metrics is a rare event in itself. Together, they add to the increasing probability that we are in a high value Bitcoin accumulation zone.
More 👇
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10. Bitcoin's 4-year cycle provides opportunity.
Since 2012, the best time to invest has been the 1-year period ending 1-year prior to the Bitcoin Halving (now until Q1 2023).
Source:
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Hot off the press: Issue 30.
A dive into Bitcoin centric valuation metrics, where we are in the cycle, and what the big three liquidity crises mean for Bitcoin.
Check it out:
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With the big Fidelity news, Bitcoin is finally being acknowledged in traditional investment vehicles for the massive portfolio diversification benefits and outsized risk-adjusted rewards...
Read more in Update
#13
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Today we now find ourselves at a special juncture in the crypto cycle. Unique alignments are occurring. We are witnessing rare discounts in metrics seen less than 5% of the time over the last 11 years.
Read more in Capriole's June newsletter out now.
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Summary:
1. Best returning asset class
2. Best risk-reward of major assets
3. 0.5% of the world owns BTC
4. Adoption like the internet
5. Inflation is sticky
6. Fiat default insurance
7. Cheap against comparables
8. Sovereign adoption
9. Preferred by Gen Y/Z
10. Cyclically cheap
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9
47
New article: Everything you need to know about yield curves.
An analysis on 150years of data covering:
- Why they predict recessions
- Why they predict stock losses
- Why we may have seen the bottom
- Why the US yield curve won't matter very soon.
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The crypto world was shaken to the core in November as top three exchange FTX was exposed as the biggest fraud since Bernie Madoff and Enron.
This issue covers the fraud, what it means for our industry and what the data says about Bitcoin’s value today.
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When we set up our fund, we wanted a structure that aligned with investors' interests best. We chose zero management fees so that we only make money when our investors do. It's great to see the majority of people agree this is the way to go!
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Issue
#31
out now!
Your monthly Bitcoin deep dive, with new metrics, insights and our forecast ahead. Check it out and subscribe to get our newsletter straight to your inbox each month:
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28
Bitcoin Market Update
#2
out now!
Get informed on the latest state of the Bitcoin market in less than 3 minutes.
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Issue
#49
out now: Harder than Gold.
A deeper dive on the forth Bitcoin Halving, Runes, Onchain valuations and macroeconomic conditions going into mid-2024. Here’s what some of the most important data is saying about Bitcoin…
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4. It's still early.
Digital asset adoption is following the path of the internet, but with faster growth.
Digital asset adoption is roughly in the same place the internet was in 1998.
Source:
@zerohedge
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We have an exciting announcement to make on custody soon!
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We were able to protect investor assets from FTX's collapse via two means:
1. Monitoring FTX on-chain reserves. Their treasuries trended to zero over 24hrs.
2. Observing the dubious source of FTX top-ups from trading firm Alameda.
Both solidified the dire situation at FTX.
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6. Fiat default insurance.
The CDS default insurance market for fiats is valued at $2-3T. Greg Foss makes a compelling case Bitcoin is fiat default insurance. Valuing Bitcoin as fiat default insurance alone puts Bitcoin's price closer to $150K per coin.
Source:
@FossGregfoss
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We are seeing some promising and rare structures form on Bitcoin which are worth paying attention to. Read more about this in our newest Capriole Update:
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Our current select holdings:
-
#Bitcoin
(BTC)
-
@nftworldsNFT
(WRLD)
-
@terra_money
(LUNA)
-
@LidoFinance
(LDO)
-
@dopex_io
(DPX, rDPX)
-
@LooksRareNFT
(LOOKS)
-
@DefiKingdoms
(JEWEL)
-
@stakewise_io
(SWISE)
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3. Adoption is still in its infancy.
Bitcoin holders represent just 0.5% of the World's population today.
Source:
@glassnode
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Bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon and has entered the Bitcoin standard with
@terra_money
's adoption as a backstop to its algorithmic USD.
This is the start of a new era, and we expect more will follow.
Read more in our Newsletter by
@RyanCapriole
👇
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Here's a monster market update for April.
@caprioleio
dissects the biggest ever month of country level Bitcoin adoption, and the current macroeconomic environment.
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7. Asset market caps are still emerging.
If Bitcoin becomes the global default for hard money or peer-to-peer cash, that would be an order of magnitude increase of circa 10X (gold) to 100X (fiat).
Source: various (see PDF deck at end)
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9. Bitcoin is the future.
Younger generations, that are entering their peak income earning years, mostly agree Bitcoin is a positive financial innovation.
Source:
@Cointelegraph
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We're looking for advisors to join Capriole!
Must be passionate about Bitcoin and crypto and have a quantitative mindset.
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Many crypto firms are making big lay-offs.
But Capriole is still growing. We are seeking passionate & experienced quant traders and developers.
Check our our open positions!
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5. Hard as gold.
With Government Debt-to-GDP higher than the WW2 peak, it wouldn't be surprising for the current multi-decade trend of fiat inflation and devaluation to continue out of necessity.
Source:
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1. High return.
Bitcoin and digital assets were the highest returning asset class of the last decade.
Bitcoin returned 10X more per year than the second best asset class, the NASDAQ 100.
Source:
@charliebilello
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Our website had a little make over! 🎨 Find out more about our strategies, the firm, our team and most importantly sign up for our monthly newsletter to stay up to date with Bitcoin and digital asset news.
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8. Bitcoin is regulated, institutional and sovereign.
Source: various (see PDF deck at end)
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Micro Update
#1
out now!
Introducing our new 3-minute Bitcoin market updates.
Covering the most important news, technicals & fundamentals in <3mins to keep you informed.
Enhancing signal, minimizing noise.
Subscribe to get updates to your inbox 👇
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February newsletter out now by
@YassiYz
!
Read more on:
- How war impacts markets
- Market sentiment today
- How Bitcoin's relative value looks today
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We just deployed our most advanced trading strategy yet! 🎉
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This week was a sad turn of events driven by the greed of a few.
The positive is a new industry standard for exchange based proof-of-reserves, this is making crypto the most transparent industry in the world.
Ultimately, on-chain analytics will make this industry rise stronger.
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For a hedge fund, what fee model would you prefer?
Mgmt = flat fee charged p.a. (regardless of results)
Perf = percentage of returns p.a. (only charged if money is made)
Mgmt: 2%, Perf: 20%
79
Mgmt: 0%, Perf: 30%
134
Mgmt: 5%, Perf: 10%
26
Results
127
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3
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2. The best risk-adjusted return.
Bitcoin and Ethereum had the best risk-return relationship of major asset classes through the last decade based on Sharpe Ratios.
Source:
@woonomic
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US accredited investors: you asked, we listened.
The Capriole Fund is now pleased to give new investments a choice:
- Performance based on USD growth, or
- Performance based on Bitcoin growth
You choose what's most important for you. As always, no management fees.
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We are excited to announce that Capriole has integrated Fireblocks! With Fireblocks, the Capriole Fund offers institutional-grade custody and security to protect investor assets.
@FireblocksHQ
is ISO & SOC certified and is the only CCSS QSP Level 3 certified company in the world.
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1 Bitcoin invested with Capriole in November 2019 has grown to over 3.4 today.
We have outperformed Bitcoin with 64% higher risk-adjusted returns.
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2
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The era of deep value is over. Bitcoin is fairly valued for the first time in 2 years. Is it time to exercise caution?
Read more:
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1
19
We are thrilled to announce Capriole’s operations are net carbon negative. We offset all our CO2 emissions and more by planting 100s of protected trees each year. 15-20% of our trees are also fruit bearing and contribute to local economies.
Read more:
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90% of the S&P500 returns over the last half century can be explained by just 3 factors: GDP, money supply & interest rates. Read more about our 3 factor model here:
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The most important Bitcoin and crypto news this month.
The good, the bad and the ugly...
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Let's take a look at the decade ahead. The roaring Twenties. Similar periods suggest this will be the decade of hard money. Stocks might flounder. Bitcoin might fly, just as gold rallied 2400% in the 1970s.
The Golden Gift:
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Here's how the Capriole Macro Index looks against price.
Notice today
#Bitcoin
is in a region of historical deep value, but it has also become more discounted in prior cycles before the Index bottomed. Bitcoin is currently in "Contraction" but may soon be entering "Recovery".
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1
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The Greatest Inflation Hedge Ever
Find out how Bitcoin is progressively pricing as a better-and-better inflation hedge in this very detailed
#Bitcoin
analysis:
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US Investors:
We are pleased to announce a special limited offer to join the Capriole Fund with reduced fees.
The following terms apply for new investments in the next 90 days:
- $100K+: 20% performance fee
- $250K+: 17.5% performance fee
As always: 0% management fees.
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0
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We're BUM people. In full-year 2022, our trading grew our Bitcoin Under Management by over 18%.
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1
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Update
#5
out now. For the first time since June, Bitcoin fundamentals have turned a positive corner...
0
1
13
The Capriole Fund has no exposure to FTT nor FTX.
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2
12
NOTE: this is not financial advice and not a recommendation to invest in any asset. Bitcoin and digital assets involve risks. More considerations are available in the presentation linked at the end of this thread. Don't rely on past performance. Do your own research.
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0
13
ETF fever is coming to a head with approvals expected within the next 3 weeks. We expect a lot of volatility...🎢
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1
13
Capriole Investments was featured in the November issue of covering our 3+ year journey of using AI in trading and managing investing systematically. Crypto Funds Watch is a great monthly read for the latest industry updates.
0
1
11
Two major and positive events just unfolded in the
#Bitcoin
space continuing a positive picture for Bitcoin. Also we are seeing adoption and value propagation at levels which we would normally expect after the Halving in April 2024...
Read more:
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#Bitcoin
is heating up, in both opportunity and across derivatives markets. And we have the strongest onchain growth since 2020…
Read more:
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1
11
Capriole Investments' founder Charles Edwards reveals in this Cointelegraph interview why the 2024 Bitcoin Halving will be the most important.
A "new regime" dawns:
@caprioleio
gives us the lo-down on what the coming years hold for Bitcoin and BTC price.
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The Fed is Building a War Chest. In this macroeconomic special we deep dive 17 important metrics to help set the stage for the coming Bitcoin bull run. Read more:
0
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Capriole’s founder Charles was on the
@1MarkMoss
show!
Check it out now:
Was a pleasure to be on the
@1MarkMoss
show!
We discuss:
- When the next recession will be
- Why the Fed will pivot
- Why Bitcoin will decouple from risk assets
- How we use on-chain analysis for
#Bitcoin
investing.
Check it out:
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Based on live trading data from 11/2019. Returns were calculated internally. Returns from Capriole Fund launch in 3/2021 include all fund related fees, returns prior to fund launch do not include fund fees. All trades have been independently verified. Fund returns are audited.
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Is Bitcoin's longest winning streak finally coming to an end?
Read more:
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1
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With fundamentals in a downtrend, large ETF outflows continuing and technicals in a no man’s land, Bitcoin at $40K is not a screaming buy today. That said, this picture will change very soon…
Read more:
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1
9
This month saw the largest ever destruction of crypto wealth by a single entity.
We explore the impacts and question if the current market bounce represents a dead-cat or a global bottom.
Read more in issue 20.
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We have historically rare risk-asset signals appearing, amidst a period of Bitcoin’s relative out-performance and de-correlation from equities markets. At the same time, Bitcoin fundamentals continue to grow...
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Every month we write a newsletter to 1000s of professional investors, HNWs and institutions covering the most important Bitcoin news and fundamentals.
It's free and sent straight to your inbox. Check out last month's issue and sign up here:
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For those enquiring:
We did not hold any LUNA or UST during this week's crash. We exited our LUNA position mostly above $94 after identifying that LUNA's protocol metrics were deteriorating and showing signs of growing risk.
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We are excited to welcome John Crawley as Head of Investor Distribution. John brings a wealth of experience from his career spanning FinTechs and large hedge funds, including Xerion Capital & Perella Weinberg.
If you are in New York, reach out!
0
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We are happy to share the interview with
@tradingview
. Charles, founder of
@capriole_fund
, walks through a dozen charts from Macro to Fundamentals and Technicals and how they interplay in Bitcoin price action. Watch here:
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1
7
Have you heard of Supply Delta?
It's a simple metric to identify potential tops &bottoms in
#bitcoin
.
Read more here👇
You can also see the live metric on
@glassnode
here 👇
0
1
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An open source indicator to track how "hedged" the market is in stablecoins.
The current reading suggests there is a relatively large amount of dry powder sitting in stablecoins.
For those asking for the details, I just published it for you:
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Charles and Will discussing the global macro and Bitcoin market today.
This week I spoke with Charles Edwards (
@caprioleio
), founder of Capriole Investments.
We discuss what it's like managing a fund in this space, some of the metrics he's created, and his overall market outlook.
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Fresh new site just launched 🔥
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Read more 👇
0
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@caprioleio
talking markets with Blockworks.
Covering:
- How Bitcoin has changed
- What metrics matter now
- The role of macro markets
- Ethereum, an asset or money?
...and many more developments in crypto.
Check it out👇
"
#Bitcoin
is critical for a strong crypto market"
Listen to
@caprioleio
's macro outlook and thoughts on Bitcoin for 2022.
Apple:
Spotify:
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To see if you qualify:
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Charles is talking with
@ki_young_ju
on this Twitter Space tomorrow. Be there!
We're going to have Twitter Space with Charles Edwards (
@caprioleio
), on 2022-03-08 at 09:00 AM UTC!
"Looking Into 2022 Crypto"
🪙$109 CQ Credits Lucky Draw: RT & Like
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