Ki Young Ju
@ki_young_ju
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Founder & CEO @cryptoquant_com | #Bitcoin On-chain Analysis
Seoul 🇰🇷 / NYC 🗽
Joined May 2011
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SEC sues
@Binance
, but no major withdrawals from Binance. User balances are increasing actually.
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For the past 3 hours, someone(s) just bought ~$4B worth of $BTC futures in market orders, and $87M short positions liquidated across all exchanges.
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13k $BTC flowed out from Coinbase a few hours ago.
It seems those BTC went to multiple Coinbase custody wallets. US institutional investors are still buying Bitcoin at the 48k price.
This is the strongest bullish signal I've ever seen.
Chart 👉
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Someone(s) bought up $1.6B worth $BTC via market orders in just 5 minutes.
Short liquidations seem relatively smaller like $17M at that time.
This is more like whale buying, not cascade liquidations.
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$ETH supply doesn't increase anymore.
Its rate of change became almost zero after the London hard fork.
Just like Bitcoin, ETH is now a scarce asset with limited supply.
Source 👇
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This is not a short squeeze, but someone(s) is just buying $BTC a lot.
I repeat.
This is not a short squeeze, but someone(s) is just buying $BTC a lot.
#Bitcoin
short squeeze hasn't happened.
Most perpetual swap buying volume came from pure $BTC purchases, not forced short liquidations.
More bullets for bulls.
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Okay
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FTX's stablecoin reserve just reached a year-low.
$51M as of now. -93% over the last two weeks.
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U.S. criminal justice system works well and will put SBF in jail soon.
ⓘ 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴
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$BTC accumulation phase begins.
Newbies who joined last year are evolving to long-term holders. The market cap for 6-month+ old BTC takes 52% now. It was 13% at the cyclic top.
Unlikely to hit the previous low($28k) as the newbies will wait for other newbies in the next cycle.
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$BTC market is very uncertain right now.
Whale selling indicates a bear/fake-bull market, and retail selling implies a bull market. We're in neutral now.
Stop trade, be patient and wait for the next volatility.
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Someone is buying $BTC a lot.
99% of transactions are happening outside of the exchanges. Possibly OTC deals.
If big names announce their buying, bears could be in a trouble. I'm not sure about short-term price moving tho.
$131B worth of $BTC moved yesterday, but only 1% from the exchange deposits/withdrawals. Fund Flow Ratio for all exchanges hit the 2-year low.
This might indicate $BTC OTC trading by big players.
Chart 👉
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400k $ETH flowed out from Coinbase a few days ago.
Speculative guess, institutions are now buying $ETH.
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$BTC whales are moving.
It's the largest moving I've ever seen since 2017 excluding outliers.
The average TX amount skyrocketed like 5x, and it seems most big transactions didn't come from exchanges if you see the fund flow ratio.
Source 👇
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Meme coins harm the crypto industry.
It's frustrating to see billion-dollar-cap memecoins overshadow hardworking teams building legit products to advance this industry.
Easy money can't drive industry-wide progress, as shown by the 2018 ICO burst.
$SLERF, one of the tokens emerging from the Solana meme coin presale mania, chalked up multiple exchange listings, a $1.7 billion trading volume and thousands of unique holders in a few hours after going live – despite a major fumble. By
@shauryamalwa
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How to buy $BTC at the global bottoms:
1. $BTC drops hard over -30%
2. All Exchange Inflow Mean (MA7) spikes over 2.5 BTC
3. The indicator cools down
4. ALL-IN $BTC
5. Become a billionaire and give a tip to
@cryptoquant_com
Chart 👉
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NYSE listed the first gold ETF in Nov 2004, and the price never came back.
Many economic factors have affected the gold price, but listing ETF would have played a major role in the inflow of global institutional funds.
We may never see this $BTC price again once ETFs approved.
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It's a whale war, and you know who got the real power.
US Institutional Investors
- Coinbase Outflow = 🟢STRONG BUY
- Coinbase Premium = 🟢BUY
BTC Whales
- BTC Reserve = 🟢BUY
- Stablecoin Inflow TXs = 🟢BUY
Miners
- Miner Outflows = 🔴 SELL
- Miner to Exchange Flows = 🔴 SELL
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"Institutions are coming."
"Whales are accumulating BTC."
"Hashrate hits the all-time high."
"Long-term holders are not selling BTC."
"Crypto has fundamentals."
Guys, these are not memes anymore unlike the 2018 bear market. It's time to take those facts seriously.
NFA.
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$BTC is ready to get another leg up.
A significant amount of Bitcoins has flowed out across all exchanges, weakening selling pressure.
Chart👉
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If you're a long-term investor, now is the time to buy $BTC.
Not sure how many corrections would be along the way, but the on-chain indicator says there are enough stablecoins in exchanges compared to Bitcoins to get another leg up.
Chart 👉
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Massive Coinbase outflows. 15k $BTC at 32.4k
Looking at the TX, it went to custody wallets that only have in-going transactions. It's likely to be OTC deals from institutional investors.
I believe this is the strongest bullish signal.
Chart 👉
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FUN FACT: Government of China🇨🇳 is a crypto whale.
Chinese authorities seized 194k BTC, 833k ETH, and others from the PlusToken scam in 2019. They forfeited these $6 billion-worth assets to the national treasury.
FWIW, MicroStrategy has 130k $BTC.
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$BTC just broke $25k without retesting $21k.
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The $BTC bottom is near.
How to buy $BTC at the global bottoms:
1. $BTC drops hard over -30%
2. All Exchange Inflow Mean (MA7) spikes over 2.5 BTC
3. The indicator cools down
4. ALL-IN $BTC
5. Become a billionaire and give a tip to
@cryptoquant_com
Chart 👉
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Everyone is talking about bearish things, but most of them haven't left the crypto market. They're just waiting for the bottom.
#Bitcoin
marketcap decreased by -70% from the top while stablecoin went down by just -11%.
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Imagine when SEC approves Bitcoin ETFs.
US followers like Korea will approve Bitcoin ETFs, more global institutions will buy BTC, and more global financial services will launch Bitcoin funds.
How much BTC price would be then?
The bull market may last longer than we thought.
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This cycle is different.
Institutional funds of $86B entered the
#Bitcoin
market in the past 6 months.
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It seems whales move their coins from centralized exchanges to other wallets before pumping altcoins.
Here's the average amount of outflows across all exchanges for $AAVE, $SUSHI, $LINK, $UNI, $BAT, and $SNX.
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🟨 Gold market cap
Before ETF in 2004: $1 Trillion
After ETF in 2021: $11 Trillion
If $10T demand came from an inflation hedge, not industrial use, this year is going to be interesting for
#Bitcoin
.
🪙 BTC market cap
Before ETF in 2021: $1 Trillion
NYSE listed the first gold ETF in Nov 2004, and the price never came back.
Many economic factors have affected the gold price, but listing ETF would have played a major role in the inflow of global institutional funds.
We may never see this $BTC price again once ETFs approved.
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I admit my mistakes on the wrong prediction. It was so wrong. I was a permabull when $BTC hit the all-time high.
But I want to say the goal of my tweet is to show how to use data. From now on, I'll more focus on data insights.
Hope you do your own research before place bets.
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Miners keep holding $BTC.
Bitcoins periodically sent to exchanges from miners are decreasing.
Chinese regulations can force miners to sell their rigs but not Bitcoin.
(Disclaimer: I'm not a Bitcoin maxi)
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Another institutional buying at 48.6k
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There are many institutional investors who bought $BTC at the 30-32k level. The Coinbase outflow on Jan 2nd was a three-year high.
Speculative guess, but if these guys are behind this bull-run, they'll protect the 30k level. Even if we have a dip, it wouldn't go down below 28k.
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Isn't it illegal?
1/ FTX allows withdrawals only for TRX & TRC20.
2/ Users exchange assets to TRX to request withdrawals.
3/ TRX price goes up like 50x in FTX.
4/ Justin deposits TRX into FTX and sells them.
5/ FTX users sell TRX in other exchanges with a significant loss.
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@elonmusk
Twitter just beat Instagram and took over 4th rank in global traffic.
The next target is Facebook.
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Whale Observation:
Whales seem to punt a long position by sending $BTC to derivatives exchanges from other exchanges when the price is at the bottom.
Each time this indicator hit the peak, the funding rate across all exchanges gets neutral.
Chart 👉
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@cz_binance
@binance
Been tracking Binance's wallets for four years.
They have already been 99% transparent with a couple of cold/hot wallets, while other exchanges mix up clients' assets with third-party wallets like MMs.
Now they got 100% transparency. This is what the industry leader does.
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Most
#Bitcoin
cyclic indicators are saying the bottom.
Not sure how long it would take for consolidation in this range tho. Opening a big short position here sounds not a good idea unless you think that $BTC is going to zero.
Live Dashboard 👇
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Coinbase premium turned to positive.
They're coming...
Another significant Coinbase outflows at 48k. US institutional investors are still buying $BTC.
I think the major reason for this drop is the jittering macro environment like the 10-year Treasury note, not whale deposits, miner selling, and lack of institutional demand.
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This is a pretty rare bullish signal. Might be OTC deals for institutional investors.
$ETH
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If you are not an insider, keep your eyes on data to see how front-runners behave:
1/ $1.6B-worth $BTC buying in 5 mins
2/ $186B-worth $BTC moved on the network (not from exchanges, highly likely OTC deals)
3/
#Bitcoin
futures premium on CME surges
Fit puzzle pieces together.
Before investing in a fund that holds Bitcoin futures contracts, make sure you carefully weigh the potential risks and benefits.
Check out our Investor Bulletin to learn more:
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This is another indicator I'm patiently waiting for cooling off to punt 10x long at $BTC bottom.
Chart 👉
How to buy $BTC at the global bottoms:
1. $BTC drops hard over -30%
2. All Exchange Inflow Mean (MA7) spikes over 2.5 BTC
3. The indicator cools down
4. ALL-IN $BTC
5. Become a billionaire and give a tip to
@cryptoquant_com
Chart 👉
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Binance:
Processing deposits and withdrawals for billions of dollars of crypto assets every day
WSJ:
Traders are pulling billions of dollars from
@binance
People:
Bank run on Binance
Traders are pulling billions of dollars from Binance as problems plaguing the world’s largest crypto exchange continue to mount
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This $BTC correction is more like a technical correction, and the fundamentals are still strong.
US institutional demand has driven this bull market. There's no change in this trend.
Predicting a short-term move became hard due to derivative markets and altcoin season tho.
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Fun Fact: This person mined 150
#Bitcoin
valued at $0.13, held for 13 years, then sold for $6.5 million, yielding a 5,019,590,600% profit.
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Coinbase Premium hit the all-time low -$1020 and then skyrocketed +$486.
Remember who's driving the market. Coinbase whales have been accumulating $BTC in 44-48k range.
Even if there are more corrections, it's unlikely to go down below 44k.
Chart👉
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#Bitcoin
whales opened giga long positions at $29k.
Pro-tip: To spot old whales' giga long/short positions, focus on low-volume derivative exchanges.
1/ Huobi whale: longed at $16,819
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59,151 $BTC just unpegged from BTCB and flowed into Binance.
BTCB is the Bitcoin-pegged Token on BNB chain.
Since $BTCB marketcap decreased at the same time, it doesn't seem to be post-settlement. Sell-side liquidity imo.
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$BTC market is in the greedy stage.
How much leverage people bet in derivative trading can indicate investors' fear and greed. It has increased since February.
I'm not saying bearish, but I usually recommend buying when it's in the fear phase.
Chart 👉
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Another significant Coinbase outflows at 48k. US institutional investors are still buying $BTC.
I think the major reason for this drop is the jittering macro environment like the 10-year Treasury note, not whale deposits, miner selling, and lack of institutional demand.
13k $BTC flowed out from Coinbase a few hours ago.
It seems those BTC went to multiple Coinbase custody wallets. US institutional investors are still buying Bitcoin at the 48k price.
This is the strongest bullish signal I've ever seen.
Chart 👉
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$BTC whales are moving to derivative exchanges from other exchanges, possibly to punt long positions.
Each time they moved, the price has been likely to go up in the long term.
Live Chart 👇
Whale Observation:
Whales seem to punt a long position by sending $BTC to derivatives exchanges from other exchanges when the price is at the bottom.
Each time this indicator hit the peak, the funding rate across all exchanges gets neutral.
Chart 👉
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If you're a long-term $BTC investor, don't worry. Your portfolio is the same as institutional investors in the States.
If you're a derivative trader, be careful in the short term. (Relatively speaking) whales are depositing $BTC to exchanges.
Chart👉
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New ATH $ETH
I believe this buying power came from institutional investors.
400k $ETH flowed out from Coinbase a few days ago.
Speculative guess, institutions are now buying $ETH.
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Nothing has been changed since yesterday.
Miners are selling, no significant
#stablecoin
inflows, no
#Coinbase
outflows, and 15k $BTC flowed into exchanges since yesterday.
We might have second dumping.
Chart 👉
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$BTC accumulation level reached a 7-year high.
Over 6-month-old Bitcoins now take 74% of the realized cap. It was 70%, and 77% at the last bottoms in 2019, and 2015 respectively.
Imagine you buy Bitcoins and do nothing over six months. You know how hard it is.
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MVRV is currently 1.50, which indicates
#Bitcoin
wallets still have +50% unrealized profits.
If this is the end of the bull cycle, we should keep our eyes on this classic indicator to catch the cyclic bottom.
Historically, the cyclic bottom comes when MVRV reached below 1.
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So you're saying I can manipulate the 1.05 Trillion $BTC market by -10%?
Thanks. I'll use my power for good things.
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Shorted on $BTC at $20,807.
I'm expecting a correction in a couple of hours.
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$ETH all-time high in 2021 is different from 2018.
Fewer deposits, more withdrawals across all exchanges.
Selling pressure significantly weaker than in 2018.
Save Chart 👉
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Whales are sending $BTC to derivative exchanges from other exchanges to punt new positions or fill up margins.
If you look at the historical data, the price goes up in the long term after their accumulation. Their positions seem to be long positions.
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#Bitcoin
OG's Entry Price:
1st gen - $1.3
2nd gen - $653
3rd gen - $8,717
4th gen - $43,582
I'm the 3rd gen. Hang in there, 4th gen.
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One thing that makes me worried about $BTC is exchange netflows.
There are many Bitcoins are flowing into exchanges lately but the trading volume is still relatively low.
$BTC needs more trading volume to digest increasing exchange inflows.
Data 👉
@cryptoquant_com
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Whales are depositing $BTC to exchanges.
No doubt it'll hit $100k this year, but in the short-term, if we wouldn't see any significant buying pressure from
@CoinbasePro
, I think $BTC would be bearish.
Should keep eyes on Coinbase outflow and Coinbase Premium(will launch by tmr)
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I smell crypto mass adoption here
$ETH
VISA moves to allow payment settlements using $USDC.
Its circulating supply and exchange holdings keep renewing at an all-time high every day.
Currently, $USDC is the second-largest stable coin after $USDT.
Chart 👉
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15k Coinbase outflow at 37,413.
It seems like lots of OTC deals are on-going lately.
$BTC
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12k $BTC flowed out from Coinbase again.
Institutions are still accumulating $BTC in this range.
Chart 👉
Whales accumulating $BTC.
They are making a lot of bear traps lately, but the price seems to recover the institutional buying level, 48k.
Looking at recent Coinbase outflows, most of the outflows that went to custody wallets were at 48k price.
Chart 👉
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You can call me crazy, but I think we'll see 50k soon.
Just got another stablecoins deposit signal.
Chart 👉
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Still an insane $ETH Coinbase premium.
Selling $ETH now seems not a good idea in the long term. Follow US institutional investors, not against them.
Another evidence that US (institutional) investors are buying $ETH at
@Coinbase
.
$ETH Coinbase premium has been significantly increased since early 2021.
New money is flowing into the crypto market.
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The next
#Bitcoin
parabolic bull run might begin when massive $USDC flows into exchanges.
For now, 94% of the USDC supply is outside exchanges, some of which are owned by TradFis like BlackRock, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, etc.
They'll move when they get orders from their clients.
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I’m honored to be included in
@Cointelegraph
’s Top 100 notable people in blockchain, along with so many other amazing innovators!
Top 100 list -
I’m featured here -
#CTTop100
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#Bitcoin
holds support above $60k in spite of whale dumping.
📉 Most $BTC exchange deposits are coming from whales. Top 10 TXs take almost 90% of the total volume in an hour.
📈 Exchange reserve is decreasing, leading to less supply on exchanges.
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It seems most US institutions haven't sold any Bitcoin since their OTC deals.
For example, here are custody wallets from Coinbase outflows on Dec 23, 2020. No $BTC moved since then.
Remember, institutions like
@tesla
are with us.
4/ Previous OTC-like transactions from Coinbase on Dec 23. No $BTC moved since then.
- 2590 BTC
- 1400 BTC
- 1957 BTC
- 2391 BTC
- 2601 BTC
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People have PTSD about mass-dumping.
But don't worry, we're good now.
Two whale dumping indicators said there are fewer whales compared to the past. The bull-run is likely to continue.
Details 👉
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Q: What's behind this $ETH parabolic move?
A: US (institutional) investors.
Still an insane $ETH Coinbase premium.
Selling $ETH now seems not a good idea in the long term. Follow US institutional investors, not against them.
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#Bitcoin
gives me the same vibe as 4 years ago.
2020-21:
$3K → $9K (Recovery)
$9K → $19K (Bull market to previous ATH)
$20K → $68K (The real bull market)
2023-24:
$15K → $45K (Recovery)
$45K → $68K (Bull market to previous ATH)
$68K → $___K (The real bull market)
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10x longed on $BTC at $31973 as exchange whale ratio cooling down and stablecoin deposits is increasing
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This bull-run isn't over yet. I'm ready to buy the dip.
$BTC velocity hit the year-high lately, but still, it keeps very low compared to previous bull-runs.
#store_of_value
Chart 👉
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This rally has been driven by whale buying, not short squeeze.
Massive $BTC buying market orders in derivative exchanges are not from short liquidations.
This indicates:
1/ There are no big short positions liquidated so far
2/ Whales punted long positions since the dip
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#Bitcoin
Miners are extremely bullish now.
Hashrate to mining revenue ratio hit an all-time high, meaning they keep investing in infrastructure despite very small $BTC mining revenue.
Historically, miners were underwater in the short term but never failed in the long term.
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It seems Huobi users moved $ETH,
#stablecoins
, and DEX tokens to decentralized exchanges like Uniswap.
Outflow transactions spiked after Huobi announced the suspension of existing accounts in mainland China.
Ironically, regulation led to decentralization this time.
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Good news.
$BTC Coinbase Premium looks good after breaking 50k.
We can go higher now 🚀
Chart 👉
This $50k battle is about Coinbase whales(USD) vs. Stablecoin whales(USDT).
Negative Coinbase premium, but plentiful stablecoins in exchanges. Negative premium should be cooled down to get another leg up.
Chart 👉
$BTC
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I'll keep my bearish bias until there are significant Coinbase premium and Coinbase outflow.
$BTC needs USD spot inflows from institutional investors to start the next bull run.
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Bears can't win this game until spot
#Bitcoin
ETF inflow stops.
Last week, spot ETFs saw netflows of +30K BTC. Known entities like exchanges and miners hold around 3M BTC, including 1.5M BTC by US entities.
At this rate, we'll see a sell-side liquidity crisis within 6 months.
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Google search volume for
#Bitcoin
just hit a year-low.
If you're still interested in crypto, you might have a belief in the future of the crypto market.
Historically, the remaining folks until retail interests bottomed out eventually have won this game.
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Another evidence that US (institutional) investors are buying $ETH at
@Coinbase
.
$ETH Coinbase premium has been significantly increased since early 2021.
New money is flowing into the crypto market.
New ATH $ETH
I believe this buying power came from institutional investors.
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Pretty strong Coinbase premium since 43k.
Coinbase whales are most affected by the macro environment, I think their buying indicates the correction is over.
Chart 👉
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We may see a series of announcements of $BTC purchases from institutions like
@Facebook
soon.
Institutions have been accumulated $BTC in $48-60k range since February. Approx. 154k Bitcoins has flowed out from Coinbase into multiple cold wallets.
Chart👉
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#Bitcoin
short squeeze hasn't happened.
Most perpetual swap buying volume came from pure $BTC purchases, not forced short liquidations.
More bullets for bulls.
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Still bearish in the short term.
This whale dumping indicator hit a year-high since the March great sell-off last year. Whales keep depositing $BTC into exchanges.
If this is an orchestrated effort, it will go down again. If not, we may retest the bottom again at least.
Whales started depositing $BTC to exchanges when the price was $50k.
Tbh, I was super bullish before Elon's tweets, and then this shit happened after his tweet. Can't blame him, but it seems like a butterfly effect.
Until this indicator cools off, I'll keep my bearish bias.
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I think this is why the $BTC price is going down in spite of strong fundamentals...🐶
The market will become smart money soon, and the funds will go to major coins that have intrinsic value.
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