Carnegie Politika
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Latest insights from the top experts on Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. Part of @CarnegieRussia / @CarnegieEndow. На русском: @CarnegieRu
Joined September 2022
“Never before has the U.S. been so successful in its attempts to convince Central Asia that cooperation with Washington is worth the irritation from China and Russia.” @TUmarov on the possible future of the region:
carnegieendowment.org
Central Asia’s warmer ties with the United States could force the region to face a difficult choice between incurring the wrath of its traditional allies Russia and China, and disappointing Trump and...
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The White House wants to take advantage of Kyiv’s mounting problems to impose a peace agreement that is more favorable to Russia. But the Kremlin may still believe the battlefield is a more reliable way of achieving its goals, writes @Stanovaya:
carnegieendowment.org
The White House wants to take advantage of Kyiv’s mounting problems—on and off the battlefield—to impose a peace agreement more favorable to Russia.
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How has Iran’s twelve-day war pushed Tehran even closer to Moscow and led to new cooperation agreements, including in the nuclear sector? @NikitaSmagin explains:
carnegieendowment.org
Tehran’s most urgent task is to reduce the risk of further Israeli and U.S. airstrikes. Russia’s role as a deterrent in this respect is more multifaceted than simply supplying weapons, whose real...
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International compliance is currently formulated in such a way that the Western financial system does not differentiate between Russian political emigres and ISIS militants. That enables Moscow to punish dissidents around the world, writes @amenka:
carnegieendowment.org
International compliance and anti-money laundering standards are currently formulated in such a way that the Western financial system does not differentiate between Russian political prisoners and...
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"To avoid a catastrophe, the authorities need to restore public trust and national unity." Oleg Sukhov discusses Zelensky's options amid Ukraine’s biggest corruption scandal since the outbreak of full-scale war:
carnegieendowment.org
The corruption scandal is likely to undermine the Zelensky administration’s approval rating and legitimacy just as Ukraine faces accelerating Russian advances on the front line. To avoid a catastro...
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How is rapid Ukrainian and Russian innovation at the front reshaping modern warfare? @Andriypzag joins this week’s @onedecisionpod with @KateEMcCann and @BenWallace70 to break it down:
podcasts.apple.com
Podcast Episode · One Decision · 11/20/2025 · 34m
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The Kremlin understands that the latest tax hikes may soon prove insufficient to support the struggling economy, so it is using governors and Federation Council senators to prepare society for further unpopular measures, argues Andrey Pertsev.
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"Trump has reminded BRICS members why the bloc matters, while simultaneously exposing why it cannot rise to the occasion." Our newest on BRICS with my @CarnegieEndow partner in crime @OliverStuenkel for @ForeignAffairs. https://t.co/sFwLCyYMwZ
foreignaffairs.com
United by Trump’s hostility, but too divided to seize the moment.
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Ever since the failure of the Ukrainian blitzkrieg, Russia has been pursuing two related strategies. The first is to try to marginalize the war and return to normalcy on new terms. The second is to complement the attack on Ukraine with a new Cuban Missile Crisis—to make the West
carnegieendowment.org
The collapse of the Budapest summit is an inevitable result of the Russian system of artificially creating foreign policy crises in order to achieve a desired outcome.
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Prominent political scientist Ekaterina Shulman and others were labeled today as terrorists by the Kremlin. This can cause financial trouble even in the West. Moscow exploits this blind spot to punish dissent — using the West’s own compliance system. My new piece for
carnegieendowment.org
International compliance and anti-money laundering standards are currently formulated in such a way that the Western financial system does not differentiate between Russian political prisoners and...
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Very soon we shall see a “new” old peace proposal from the Americans, combining the April proposals drafted by Witkoff, the Russian memorandum, and the so-called Anchorage “agreements” (which each side interprets differently, or does not interpret at all🙂). It has been presented
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The Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria is disintegrating, no longer able to survive in the same way that it has for decades. Evgeny Cheban analyzes possible scenarios for its future:
carnegieendowment.org
If Transnistria continues to be ignored, the breakaway state will gradually become a deserted subsidized Russian military base. Regaining control over such an entity would be a far more complicated,...
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The heads of Russia's Vologda, Samara, and Kursk regions have attracted attention for their eccentric policies, oddball behavior, and media-savvy predilection for picking fights. Vladislav Gorin explains what purpose such figures serve for the Kremlin.
carnegieendowment.org
The heads of the Vologda, Samara, and Kursk regions have attracted attention for their eccentric policies, oddball behavior, and media-savvy predilection for picking fights.
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“Kazakhstan's president is trying to find a way to leave his seat in 2029 while remaining the country's most powerful politician,” writes Galiya Ibragimova, analyzing the changes to the structure of Kazakhstan's parliament proposed by President Tokayev.
carnegieendowment.org
It seems likely that Kazakhstan’s president is trying to find a way to leave his seat in 2029 while remaining the country’s most powerful politician.
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"The war in Ukraine has made the global energy market increasingly fragmented, with plenty of workarounds for the Kremlin and its partners to exploit." @SergeyVakulenk0 examines the limitations of the new Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions in @FT:
ft.com
Moscow has had four years to hone its evasion skills — and markets have priced it in
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Syria’s new leadership faces no shortage of immediate problems, not least holding onto power and restoring order. Moscow is willing to assist it in those tasks to further its own ends, argues Ruslan Suleymanov:
carnegieendowment.org
Syria’s new leadership faces no shortage of immediate problems, not least holding onto power and restoring order. As long as Moscow is willing to assist it in those tasks, more delicate issues such...
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Alexander Gabuev: China's leverage over the U.S and the future of the China-Russia relationship
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What’s behind the arrest of Ramiz Mehdiyev, who was for decades one of Azerbaijan’s most influential politicians, and why has President Aliyev accused him of plotting a Russia-backed coup d’état? Read Bashir Kitachaev's analysis here:
carnegieendowment.org
Mehdiyev appears to have fallen victim to a combination of circumstances: a clan war, the ongoing consolidation of power, and the Azerbaijani leadership’s attempts to establish a strict monopoly on...
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🎧 NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @AlexGabuev and @edwardfishman discuss the latest U.S. sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, and whether this step will persuade Putin to negotiate an end to his war:
carnegieendowment.org
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