“He’s trying to divide the West,” @baunov tells me after Putin accused European leaders of trying to block the US-proposed plan to end the war in Ukraine.

Good take by @baunov: After the latest US–Ukraine meetings, the revised peace plan will likely lean more toward Kyiv than the draft leaked to the press For Putin, approving such a proposal would be politically difficult, as it would publicly show that he had made concessions

Ever since the failure of the Ukrainian blitzkrieg, Russia has been pursuing two related strategies. The first is to try to marginalize the war and return to normalcy on new terms. The second is to complement the attack on Ukraine with a new Cuban Missile Crisis—to make the West

"The failure of the Budapest summit was not Lavrov’s fault, but the inevitable result of the Russian system of artificially creating a foreign policy crisis and resolving it on its own terms to achieve a desired outcome." @baunov https://t.co/EaDPdFjfTu

"Alexievich (@AlexievichS) gathers testimonies from the millions of Belarusians, Russians, and Ukrainians who have taken refuge in Europe, as well as from institutions that document repression and war in the Slavic territories that once belonged to the Soviet Union. She also

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Kremlinology 101, by @baunov: "The failure of the Budapest summit is the result of the Russian system of artificially creating a foreign policy crisis. When one such crisis proves insufficient to intimidate the enemy, a new one is needed."

Ever since the failure of the Ukrainian blitzkrieg, Russia has been pursuing two related strategies. The first is to try to marginalize the war and return to normalcy on new terms. The second is to complement the attack on Ukraine with a new Cuban Missile Crisis—to make the West

Armed conflicts anywhere in the world—though most were nothing approaching Russia’s openly aggressive war against Ukraine—served as evidence for Moscow’s official theory of international relations, which is essentially that the world order formed after Russia stopped being the

The U.S. president’s successful imposition of a ceasefire on notorious sworn enemies who have both agreed to make concessions only highlights Putin’s intransigence and his lack of competence and reason, argues @baunov.

For the Russian regime, the #Trump–#Hamas–#Israel deal is a clear loss. That’s why Moscow’s reaction is sullen — Lavrov’s press conference included — or absent altogether. If there ever was a perfect cover operation for Russia, it was the Israel–Hamas war. It diverted the

Incontriamoci a Torino domani pomeriggio

Back in 2022, the Kremlin was counting on Ukraine to prove weak and futile. Now it is counting on NATO to be weak, divided, and indecisive, argues @baunov:

" Das ist das Grundproblem dieser neuen Taktik: Wer hybride Angriffe durchführt, bekommt eine hybride" Mein großes Interview in der Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung

6/6 Now it is counting on NATO to be weak, divided, and indecisive, and on the absence of any modern-day de Gaulle on the continent. Moscow is literally quoting its own propaganda, just as it did on the eve of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

5/6 There’s no guarantee that Russia won’t repeat the mistake it made in 2022. Back then, the Kremlin was counting on Ukraine, its army, population, and fake actor-president to prove weak and futile.

4/6 And since as with Ukraine, Russia’s stated goals may prove unachievable using the selected means, to avoid suffering a symbolic defeat, Russia will be forced to get closer to the fatal threshold in order to appear more convincing.

3/6 They also allow the EU and NATO to respond in a mixed manner: using Russian attacks as a pretext for mobilization, but not recognizing them as attacks that trigger Article 5.

The greater the nodes, the stronger the network.

2/6 Hybrid attacks seem to cross the red line of military aggression against NATO member states, but they do so cautiously. Therefore, they are incapable of producing a conclusive, convincing result.

1/6 The problem with hybrid attacks is that they produce a similarly hybrid effect. My fresh piece at @CEIP_Politika