Deeper dive into why Putin is not yet desperate—and what that means for Ukraine, the West, and the future of this war

I slightly disagree with the headline: it will crack not soon but inevitably. Man can’t constantly mortgage the future. But the conversation was fab. Glad to be the guest of @onedecisionpod

Was so great to talk to @EenaRuffini and Richard Dearlove on Russia’s economy for next future.

The bottom line: despite Western wishful thinking, Russia's economy isn't collapsing. Economic headwinds won't force Putin to end his invasion of Ukraine. But risks are piling up for a future arriving faster than the Kremlin hoped.

De-dollarization is real. Ruble's share in exports tripled from 14% (2021) to 42% (2024), imports jumped to 44%. Yuan dominates Asian trade, gas payments "ruble-ized." Dollar/euro shrinking fast. Sanctions driving autarkic drift.

Back to the USSR playbook: Kremlin betting on military production as main economic driver. Defense spending stays high at the expense of long-term human capital investment. Arms output surging as civilian metal goods decline

The party's over: Russia's consumer boom is ending as salaries stagnate and the economy slows. After 2 years of spending, Russians are getting frugal—but they're forced to spend more on food (the one thing you can't cut). Retail stable, but wallets getting squeezed.

Putin boasts of 2.2% unemployment, but it's misleading. The military is draining workers from the economy, 700k professionals fled since 2022, and anti-migrant policies limit the workforce. Result? Wage inflation fueling unsustainable consumer spending.

Growth barely above 1% in H1 2024, down from 4%+ the past two years. Analysts predict it'll hit zero without major changes. Putin's team warns of tough choices ahead—the "war economy" boom is officially over.

Putin says Russia's economy is stable. #Trump says it's struggling. Heading into their Alaska summit, both presidents are missing the mark on the real economic picture. Some charts from me @kolyandr and @thebell_io

This @ForeignAffairs piece written back in March turned out to be quite predictive. Written with terrific colleagues @amenka & @Stanovaya, it is still a useful guide to the Kremlin's approach of handling Trump.

Russian Transport Minister, sacked today, has shot himself. No safe space for the elite: nobody guarantees anything, even recruitment to the SVO is not an option - you don't get back into celebrity life. The general insecurity should lead to a demand for institutions, but later

Your weekend reading is an excerpt from my upcoming book (RUS but chat gpt works for this piece) “From Sovereigns to Servants”. «Заберите себе мою трудовую книжку, кровавые ублюдки». О чём шептались и чего боялись российские чиновники весной 2022 года?

Quoted from the FT: “The world’s leading economies have agreed to a deal to spare the US’s largest companies from paying more corporate tax overseas, throwing into doubt the status of the biggest global tax deal in over a century.” This is very sad. Nobody who cares about the

All the details are in this week’s Inside the Russian Economy: Demographic subsidies, wartime payouts, and the price the Kremlin puts on life and death. Subscribe — it’s worth your time and your money. 🔗

Kremlin’s demographic policy is transformative. By turning births and deaths into budget items, the state builds loyalty through payouts, not ideals. In today’s Russia, freedom is optional, but handouts are sacred.This indicates a big transactional shift in people-state relations

This is a financial-demographic paradox: The Kremlin stimulates birth while removing men from the labor force. Thanks to handouts, people feel wealthier, but inequality is growing. Russians increasingly tie dignity not to freedom, but to income.

How much does the Kremlin pay for death? Families of soldiers killed in Ukraine receive up to RUB11 million in federal and regional payouts. Life and death have both been monetized.

How much does the Kremlin pay for life? Up to RUB 3 million per child in some regions — with bonuses for students, servicemen’s wives, and even schoolgirls. Giving birth is now a subsidized act of patriotism. It’s not just demographics. It’s social engineering.

This week @kolyandr and I investigate a financial-demographic paradox: Kremlin pays for both life and death.Billions of RUB go to boost the birthrate&to compensate the families of dead soldiers. It’s not a cynical accounting,but reshaping a social contract

more in our The Bell weekly, coauthored with @amenka Alexandra Prokopenko https://t.co/BTHPcOLS7p