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Latest insights from the Global Think Tank’s experts on Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. Part of @CarnegieEndow. RT ≠ endorsement. На русском @CarnegieRu
Washington, DC
Joined March 2010
A new paper I co-authored with @PhilGamaghelyan is out. It looks at practical steps toward lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and how different actors can support long-term stability.Any feedback is welcome. https://t.co/eUysfLNYpg
carnegieendowment.org
An official peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot by itself resolve decades of mistrust. The durability of peace will depend on healing trauma, reframing identities, diversifying...
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“Never before has the U.S. been so successful in its attempts to convince Central Asia that cooperation with Washington is worth the irritation from China and Russia.” @TUmarov on the possible future of the region:
carnegieendowment.org
Central Asia’s warmer ties with the United States could force the region to face a difficult choice between incurring the wrath of its traditional allies Russia and China, and disappointing Trump and...
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After several turbulent weeks in Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, where do peace prospects actually stand? Eric Ciaramella joins Anastasiia Lapatina and Benjamin Wittes on the Lawfare Daily podcast to discuss:
lawfaremedia.org
Is the United States abandoning Ukraine?
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The text of the peace agreement between Armenia & Azerbaijan was initialed, but not signed. To complete the deal, Baku has a difficult demand: it says Yerevan must revise its constitution, and that will require a referendum, explains @Tom_deWaal. https://t.co/AnlTaBRhyE
carnegieendowment.org
As the 2026 Armenian election approaches, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is facing fierce opposition from both Russia and the diaspora. He will need the help of Europe, the United States, and...
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The White House wants to take advantage of Kyiv’s mounting problems to impose a peace agreement that is more favorable to Russia. But the Kremlin may still believe the battlefield is a more reliable way of achieving its goals, writes @Stanovaya:
carnegieendowment.org
The White House wants to take advantage of Kyiv’s mounting problems—on and off the battlefield—to impose a peace agreement more favorable to Russia.
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What went wrong in Russia? Was thrilled to discuss the sources of Russia's conduct with 🇩🇪 Ambassador to 🇷🇺 Alexander Graf @Lambsdorff & my colleague Ekaterina Schulmann in the newest episode of @CEIP_Politika. This time as a panel with @KoerberIP. https://t.co/jlQ0wQzXVQ
carnegieendowment.org
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How has Iran’s twelve-day war pushed Tehran even closer to Moscow and led to new cooperation agreements, including in the nuclear sector? @NikitaSmagin explains:
carnegieendowment.org
Tehran’s most urgent task is to reduce the risk of further Israeli and U.S. airstrikes. Russia’s role as a deterrent in this respect is more multifaceted than simply supplying weapons, whose real...
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International compliance is currently formulated in such a way that the Western financial system does not differentiate between Russian political emigres and ISIS militants. That enables Moscow to punish dissidents around the world, writes @amenka:
carnegieendowment.org
International compliance and anti-money laundering standards are currently formulated in such a way that the Western financial system does not differentiate between Russian political prisoners and...
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Ukraine's kinetic operations against Russia in Africa may conflict with Kyiv's conventional diplomacy and friendship-building on the continent, argues Sam Bowden:
carnegieendowment.org
Kyiv’s diplomatic outreach to Africa is increasingly in tension with the work of Ukrainian intelligence services that have targeted Kremlin-related entities across the continent.
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The Kremlin understands that the latest tax hikes may soon prove insufficient to support the struggling economy, so it is using governors and Federation Council senators to prepare society for further unpopular measures, argues Andrey Pertsev.
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How is rapid Ukrainian and Russian innovation at the front reshaping modern warfare? @Andriypzag joins this week’s @onedecisionpod with @KateEMcCann and @BenWallace70 to break it down:
podcasts.apple.com
Podcast Episode · One Decision · 11/20/2025 · 34m
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The Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria is disintegrating, no longer able to survive in the same way that it has for decades. Evgeny Cheban analyzes possible scenarios for its future:
carnegieendowment.org
If Transnistria continues to be ignored, the breakaway state will gradually become a deserted subsidized Russian military base. Regaining control over such an entity would be a far more complicated,...
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The heads of Russia's Vologda, Samara, and Kursk regions have attracted attention for their eccentric policies, oddball behavior, and media-savvy predilection for picking fights. Vladislav Gorin explains what purpose such figures serve for the Kremlin.
carnegieendowment.org
The heads of the Vologda, Samara, and Kursk regions have attracted attention for their eccentric policies, oddball behavior, and media-savvy predilection for picking fights.
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“Kazakhstan's president is trying to find a way to leave his seat in 2029 while remaining the country's most powerful politician,” writes Galiya Ibragimova, analyzing the changes to the structure of Kazakhstan's parliament proposed by President Tokayev.
carnegieendowment.org
It seems likely that Kazakhstan’s president is trying to find a way to leave his seat in 2029 while remaining the country’s most powerful politician.
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Syria’s new leadership faces no shortage of immediate problems, not least holding onto power and restoring order. Moscow is willing to assist it in those tasks to further its own ends, argues Ruslan Suleymanov:
carnegieendowment.org
Syria’s new leadership faces no shortage of immediate problems, not least holding onto power and restoring order. As long as Moscow is willing to assist it in those tasks, more delicate issues such...
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Alexander Gabuev: China's leverage over the U.S and the future of the China-Russia relationship
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What’s behind the arrest of Ramiz Mehdiyev, who was for decades one of Azerbaijan’s most influential politicians, and why has President Aliyev accused him of plotting a Russia-backed coup d’état? Read Bashir Kitachaev's analysis here:
carnegieendowment.org
Mehdiyev appears to have fallen victim to a combination of circumstances: a clan war, the ongoing consolidation of power, and the Azerbaijani leadership’s attempts to establish a strict monopoly on...
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Some of Ukraine’s most effective soldiers fight from miles away. Col. Pavlo Yelizarov and @KofmanMichael explain why their distance makes them sharper, faster, and harder to stop. Listen here: https://t.co/4sydE4KXVB
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Check out the latest Russia Contingency. I join the head of Lasar’s Group, one of Ukraine’s best and lesser known drone units to talk about their experience, how drone use is evolving, adaptation on both sides, and what the future holds. @WarOnTheRocks
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