Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺
@AvidCommentator
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Journalist & Analyst Contributor for @newscomauHQ Help support my content My opinions are my own
Australia
Joined August 2018
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
In this article I look at Australia's migration rate since 1901
And compare the current rate of migration with Europe, as well as the Anglosphere
It closes out on an estimate of how many new homes may be required
Please consider sharing if you like it
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@RealCandaceO
Japan
- Used masks extensively from day 1 (it was an existing part of their culture)
- People obeyed govt directives, far more so than in Europe/US
- The Japanese stayed home as much as possible & schools closed
They have a distinct cultural advantage vs Europe.
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@MJL_Uncensored
@RealCandaceO
I dont know why this is such a difficult concept for some people to understand.
Freedom of speech and expression works both ways, not just when you agree with what someone else is saying/doing.
Americans are bloody lucky to have a constitutionally enshrined right to free speech
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'JPMorgan is the largest counterparty to the nickel trades of the Chinese tycoon caught in an unprecedented short squeeze'
So it seems the cancelling of trades on the LME was also done to prevent billions in losses for major global banks....
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How does the number of jobs in the thermal coal industry compare?
Woolworths 202,000
Coles 112,000
McDonalds 90,000
KFC 34,000
Thermal Coal 29,000
The govt goes on about the number of thermal coal jobs, yet Colonel Sanders employs more people.
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In Shanghai 63% of Japanese owned factories remain idle, with 28% below 30% of normal output.
Meanwhile fences & razor wire are going up in parts of Beijing to keep people in their home & neighborhoods.
This is a disaster for the global economy, it just hasnt been realized yet.
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The RBA has basically one lever.
One.
The federal government has many.
The RBA also weren't the ones who allowed people to borrow so much, that was APRA.
I'm all for criticizing the RBA when they screw up, but right now they're just doing their job, the govt isn't.
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Some of you may have noticed I haven't been on Twitter as much in the past few days.
With the birth of my first child, I have been busy, as you might imagine.
It's a very exciting time and the beginning of one of lifes great journeys 😁
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Aus economy reality check
- The coal industry gets $29bn p.a in subsidies/support from the govt and provides a total of 38,000 jobs
- The car industry got $200m p.a and employed over 200,000
Why couldn't we save the car industry for 1/145th of the cost of coal subsidies? 🤔
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The Rapid Decline of Aussie Universal Healthcare
I find it kind of crazy how little attention is being paid by policymakers to the collapse of bulk billing for the majority of Australians.
We pushed back and defeated a $5 co-pay and now $40-50 out of pocket is normal in many
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Our new incoming RBA Governor has a $6m property portfolio and 4 investment properties....
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My dad is currently in hospital overseas after a suspected heart attack.
His prognosis is thankfully okay and he got there in time.
But if you could consider including him in your prayers or send some good vibes our way, if your that way inclined, that would be much appreciated
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"I think over the next few years, the entire political class is going to find out what happens when you ignore the one third of this country getting screwed over by a housing system that funnels billions of dollars into the people that don't need it right now"
He's not wrong.
After about an hour of listening to the head of the property industry argue for more of the same when it comes to tackling the housing crisis, I couldn’t help but let my frustration boil over. I know many of us - the millions of Australians who rent - are feeling this same way.
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"We're in danger of developing a society where some people are able to buy their 6th, 7th, 8th home, but people trying to get into the market to buy their 1st home simply aren't able to."
Albanese on the impact of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount in 2016
"Australians know this is an issue for their kids & grandkids, they're being frozen out of the market" my comments on negative gearing
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In New Zealand negative gearing was phased out.
Today first home buyer finance commitments are 1/3 higher than property investors.
And the proportion of loans flowing to investors is roughly half what it is Australia.
There are very clearly solutions that work.
Chart: RBNZ
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That's not gone well...
Source: ABC News
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It just dawned on me.
In 1991 the median Melbourne home could be purchased for roughly 3 times a households annual income.
In 2022 the deposit and stamp duty on the median Melbourne home is more than 3 times the median household income of local households.
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As calls rise for the govt to throw money at Aussie mortgage holders, I cant help but reflect on the absurdity of it.
There are millions of carers, disabled & elderly hit by inflation, yet in this country the loudest voice is folks who dont like downside of their choice.
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That is 3 out of 4 now.
Canada, NZ and U.K govts have all admitted migration levels are unsustainable.
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“The fact that one of the least populated countries on Earth contains the world’s second most expensive housing is a national calamity, and a stunning failure of public policy,”
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51% of international student university graduates still in Australia after 3 years are working in Level 4-5 jobs.
These jobs are:
Level 4 - Bar staff, waiters etc
Level 5 - Cleaners, couriers etc
A sad indictment of our Uni sector.
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Back in 1973 when Australia's population was less than half what it is today & the most advanced tool on most building sites was a hammer, we built 108.7k new houses in a year.
In the last 12 months of data we built 114.2k, just 5% more than 50+ years ago.
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I've always found it ridiculous that rising housing prices are celebrated by much of the media & falling prices are seen as a bad thing
After years of watching friends work twice as hard as their parents for a similar home & forgoing having kids they wanted
Let prices fall
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The Roman emperor Augustus once said:
"I found Rome built of bricks, I leave her clothed in marble"
Considering the huge windfall Australia has enjoyed from commodity exports since 2004, we should have the modern equivalent, but instead we have falling per capita outcomes.
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Narrative: Australia needs more construction workers
Reality: Australia has almost 50% more construction workers per capita as the U.S and 57% more than the OECD average.
Perhaps the demand side of things needs to be considered?
Chart source:
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Several of you have been asking for a chart comparing disposable income growth with housing prices across Australia, Canada, NZ and the U.S.
And here it is.
A big hat tip to
@GetTheLeadOutCA
for finding this chart.
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The average Australian full time worker is actually far worse off after inflation and is actually going backwards at the fastest rate in at least 30 years.
The average full-time worker is earning around $3700 extra per year since the
@AlboMP
@AustralianLabor
Government came to office - getting wages moving again is a key part of our plan to ease cost-of-living pressures
#auspol
#ausecon
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'Australian housing wealth is meaningless, destructive and fundamentally changing our society'
"High-priced homes do not create wealth, Alan Kohler says, they redistribute it. Now financial success is largely a function of geography, not accomplishment"
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Its worth noting that prior to the impact of record high migration, housing prices in NZ and Australia were collapsing.
Both faster than the U.S during the GFC recession.
A very deliberate choice was made to pull the last available lever to support prices.
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Over the last 2 weeks I have copped an absolute torrent of crap from people over my views on the rental crisis.
Well here's one for you folks, why after almost a year has the Albanese govt not even paid lip service to this issue which sees Aussies living in tents and cars?
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- U.S 5 year - 30 year yield curve = Inverted
- U.S 2 year - 10 year yield curve = 0.145% away from inverting
- 10 year Japanese bonds get 0 bids
The issues in the bond market are hanging like a Sword of Damocles across all asset classes, they just don't realize it yet.
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That is an absolutely disastrous core CPI print for Britain...
The Bank Of England is well and truly the cautionary tale for this inflation cycle.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Core CPI (YoY) (May) $GBP
Actual: 7.1% 🟢
Expected: 6.8%
Previous: 6.8%
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Australia has:
- Collapsing rates of bulk billing
- Worst real wages growth in decades
- The worst rental crisis in living memory
Yet Albo has one of the highest approval ratings of any leader in the developed world.
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This chart of Domain's asking rents indices for Sydney is astounding.
If any regular Joe or Jane in their private sector job screwed up this catastrophically they would never work again outside of delivering for Door Dash.
But for our governments, it's just a Friday.
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This day will go down in Australian history. Not solely due to a majority of voters rejecting the Voice, but because it didnt need to be this way.
We could have had a slam dunk constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians, but instead the Albanese govt chose this path.
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This is gold 😂
At some point you just need to laugh about it or you go nuts.
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Just wow.
EXCLUSIVE: Two major tree planting events were cancelled this weekend after an aboriginal corporation demanded two and a half million dollars, in return for it's approval.
@geofparry7
#7NEWS
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RBA surprises the market and the vast majority of economists with a 0.25% rise in the cash rate.
I'm sure all the folks who did their victory laps on the rate rise cycle being over are going to put their hand up and admit they got it wrong.
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Australia has more construction workers per capita than almost anywhere in the developed world & the number of people directly employed in building homes has roughly doubled in the last decade
We don't have a worker shortage
We have a demand problem & inefficiently used labour
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Okay let me set the scene for you.
Its at a Property Council of NSW lunch.
Former NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet takes to the stage.
He then calls for negative gearing reform and called the current immigration policy a "Ponzi scheme"
This not a joke.
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ScoMo says workers earning 180k a yr are not rich
Albo responds that some workers on 180k a yr are struggling
In reality workers earning 180k are in the top 4% of income earners
That is rich by any meaningful definition
No wonder our country is broken
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"Australians now need to earn over $300,000 per year to comfortably afford to buy their own home, according to new housing data."
The results of decades of wilfull decisions made by the bipartisan political class.
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In the past 72 hours
- Russia has begun a naval bloackade of Ukraine
- Recruited 15k mercenaries from Syria and the Middle East
- Asked China for military help (according to U.S)
These do not sound like the actions of a nation about to make peace like headlines claim.
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I must admit I have been surprised by how few f***s politicians at a state and federal level have to give over the rental crisis.
Millions of people not even asked to sacrifice, but made to do so by poor policy.
No explanation of why or when their challenges could end.
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You know what will help, another 12 months of the expansion of the population far exceeding the number of new homes needed to adaquately house them.
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‘Millionaire migrants’ flood Aussie property market'
A new report has concluded that Australia welcomed more millionaire migrants than any other nation in the world in 2023.
Source:
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- Australia has 18,000 homeless kids under 12
- We spend $4.3b a year on negative gearing
- How can helping one be unfunded empathy and the other "assisting aspirational people"?
Yet we always seem to be able to find the $100m+ to pay for the govts reelection pork barrelling
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'The economy is being driven by a ‘bankocracy’ housing boom'
"A political conspiracy to increase property values, and win votes, is being amplified by a banking industry that wants to increase profits."
Nailed it
@AlanKohler
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"The chair of APRA has revealed he is open to changing bank rules on home loans if the Australian economy deteriorates, ensuring banks do not “choke off” credit and upset home prices further."
This country is an absolute joke
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Global food prices are up another 13% in March to hit an all time record high.
The risk of this cascading into widespread unrest around the world which could drive further inflationary pressures across the board is quite real.
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"Surely we need our tax system to enable everyone to have access to one home, before incentivizing a minority to have many."
- Former Liberal MP Rob Stokes
"Housing should not be seen as a financial asset, it should be seen as a fundamental human right."
- NSW Housing Minister
#Exclusive
: A former Liberal state planning minister is calling for an overhaul of property tax laws to save the great Australian dream of home ownership |
@lachlan_kennedy
@ChrisMinnsMP
@RobStokesMP
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"Importantly, removing negative gearing increases the average homeownership rate of
the economy from 66.7% to 72.2%...the average size of mortgages held by
homeowners decreases by 21%"
- RBA
Man that sounds really bad....
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Median house price when the LNP was elected in 2013 (ABS):
Sydney: 605k
Melbourne: 480k
Brisbane: 445k
Adelaide 393.5k
Perth: 528k
Hobart: 345k
When they left in 2022 (Corelogic):
Sydney: 1.42m
Melbourne: 1m
Brisbane: 880k
Adelaide 676k
Perth: 578k
Hobart: 793k
Statement on appointment to Shadow Ministry. The Australian dream is becoming the Australian nightmare. It must be fixed.
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Unpopular opinion time
Savers were screwed for years with low interest rates and for a substantial period of time below inflation returns, particularly after taxes.
Savers getting a decent rate of return is a cornerstone of the system, low rates was the aberration.
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Labor's 2% deposit, up to 40% shared equity scheme:
If it successfully props up housing prices = Non-homeowners lose
If it fails and the taxpayer ends up on the hook for millions = Everyone loses
An awful lose-lose Labor has just handed younger generations and non-homeowners.
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Oh no, private colleges might go bankrupt if the government cracks down on...
*checks notes*
Alleged visa scams...
EXCLUSIVE: Vocational colleges which take many students from India and other countries could go bankrupt if the Albanese government’s plan to crack down on visa scame goes ahead, a group has warned
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This graph from the ABC on interest rates on savings accounts is brilliant.
Relative to the historical spread between the cash rate and savings interest rates, Aussies are being shafted out of billions of dollars a year.
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In 1993 a brand new Subaru WRX cost $40k, today it costs $46k.
In inflation adjusted terms it would cost $85k today.
Why is that we can leverage technological advancement to make a much better product, much cheaper.
Yet not housing, there is a lesson here.
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Fascinating chart.
In 2022, Australia had the 10th highest GDP per capita in the world.
Once accounting for cost differences, we fall to 18th.
Once accounting for costs and the number of hours worked, we fall out of the top 20 alltogether.
h/t
@Mayhem4Markets
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When passengers from effected areas in China arrive in Aus, they arent screened or quarantined.
They are given a pamphlet with a number to call if they show symptoms and allowed into the country.
How is this in anyway an adaquate response?
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I went for a walk and I came across this.
It's not wrong.
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I would like to propose a motion, that housing price moves of the same magnitude both up & down be treated the same by policymakers.
If they sat on their hands while housing prices rose by up to 3% each month, they should do the same if the inverse occurs.
That's a free market.
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Fixed Mortgage "Cliff" - A thread
- There has been quite a bit of debate about this issue in recent days, so I thought I would try and put into perspective with some data.
- Around 46% of fixed loans will expire in 2023, which accounts for ~18% of mortgages overall.
1/
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Australia is so broken...
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"PM Anthony Albanese has said high inflation is a global phenomenon caused by supply chain issues, just a day after Michele Bullock urged Australians to recognise that price rises were increasingly being driven by local factors."
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"Our immigration intake, meanwhile, is running at record levels with up to 600k arrivals expected this calendar year. If we continued at that rate for four years, there'd be enough people to fill a city the size of Brisbane."
- ABC News
600k.....wow
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This chart from Bank of America on the U.S savings rate is astounding.
Excluding a very brief peroid in 2005, savings rates are at their lowest level since the Great Depression.
h/t
@Mayhem4Markets
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In China youth unemployment hit 19.9% today.
This is higher than Portugal.
Its near triple the rate of Hong Kong and more than double Australia's and the U.S.
But the truly astounding thing isn't the number, its that the Chinese government publicly released this figure.
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As of June 1st the HECS (Uni debts) will be hit with a 3.9% interest rate.
Meanwhile, the average owner occupier mortgage rate is 2.63%.
This is the first time in history HECS rates have outstripped mortgage rates
Billions to supress mortgage rates, but 0 help for uni students
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Just got word from a source in the SA Country Fire Service
"Kangaroo Island might burn down"
CFS staff at Parndana is currently being evacuated now.
Please retweet to get this news out there for the mainstream to pick it up
@samanthamaiden
@vanOnselenP
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The mistaken isnt raising rates.
It was taking rates too low in the first place and allowing a huge amount of debt to be run up.
All the while the real consumer economy was hollowed out for younger generations and the economy became reliant on low rates just to scrape by.
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It appears immigration as a political issue is increasingly likely to blow up in the Albanese governments face
And Labor knows it
They are losing voters to the Greens on key issues impacted by migration & there is a growing mass of opposition from prominent economists/analysts
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Median house price
Australia - $809k
U.S - $327k USD
Median household income
Australia - $84k
U.S - $62k USD
We make fun of the American's all the time, for all sorts of reasons.
But when it comes to affordable housing prices they have got us beat.
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New Zealand vs Australia
Wages growth: 3.7% vs 3.3%
Inflation rate: 7.2% vs 7.8%
Cash rate: 4.75% vs 3.35%
The divergence between the approach of the RBNZ and RBA is truly a sight to behold.
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Australia in 2021 summed up in meme form...
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This chart is among the most concerning in the world at the moment.
Fertilizer prices are at record highs and heading higher.
Meanwhile fertilizer plants are suspending production due to the high cost of gas.
A potential perfect storm for food price inflation.
Chart: Doomberg
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I got a call from a mate who is a property bull earlier today, he tells me that he reckons property prices are going to go down ~20%.
He sells classic and collectible cars, and reckons sentiment has begun to turn and that housing will follow.
It was a weird conversation.
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This is a truly astounding chart from
@Gavekal
Despite rocketing rates, Canada's household debt service ratio now is similar to Australia's when we had a 0.1% cash rate.
Australia truly is worlds apart from most nations.
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All of a sudden I find myself understanding part of why the NDIS costs so much.
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This is an absolutely key piece of data from Commbank IQ.
Per capita spending for ages 65-69 is now higher than 35-39s.
And those aged 70-74 is higher than 30-34s.
The consumer economy becomes more affluent Boomer powered with each passing day.
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When I say that Australian households have never gone this far backwards over such a long period of time in the post war era, I'm not exaggerating.
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- Frydenberg met with ANZ & NAB yesterday to encourage them to loosen credit standards and lend more
- The plan to pump up housing prices is on
- A stimulus will not be forthcoming
- LNPs plan is more household debt
- This a shameful betrayal of the Australian people
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This is the type of post I'm referring to.
This is currently the top post for the month in the Aus Finance subreddit, which has over half a million members.
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Its funny 40 years ago a house cost 2-3x income, building materials were mostly sourced/made locally & homes were built to last.
Today they cost 7-14x income, most materials are sourced cheaply from overseas & the quality is at times questionable.
Why is that...(rhetorical)
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Just walking past a Commonwealth Bank, checkout the headline on the screen....
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I gotta say I find it ironic the Albanese govt is willing to get embroiled in a big legal battle with Twitter over the video footage of the stabbing of the bishop in Sydney.
But when it comes to the scammers buying ads on social media & ripping off people in droves, not so much
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Total Russian sovereign debt: $165.8bn USD
Total Evergrande obligations (doesnt include estimates of shadow banking liabilities): $305bn USD
Really puts things into perspective doesn't it. And that is just one developer.
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It's weird, I'm starting to see angry messages directed at the RBA on social media from friends & acquaintances.
Yeah they screwed up.
But be angry with APRA & the major parties for creating this problem in the first place.
This level of rates could have been a pleasure cruise
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My latest article exploring the impact of rising unemployment on the Aussie property market, discussing some of the factors at work
This is published independently, so if you like it please consider liking, retweeting or sharing
Thank you
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So bulk billing for a large majority of Aussies has been left to wither on the vine and immigration has been increased to 33% above the all time record high during the worst rental crisis in generations.
I think folks really need to realize our quality of life is declining.
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This is an absolute joke.
In 2000 the median Aussie first home buyer (FHB) was ~25, got a 20 year loan and would be debt free by 50 even if they encountered a few bumps in the road.
Today the median FHB is 35 and they want them to take on 40 year loans.
No, just no.
There are calls for the big four banks to offer customers 40-year mortgages to help families meet rising repayment costs. Extending the length of a loan can slash monthly repayments, but mortgage experts warn there are long-term drawbacks.
#7NEWS
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"The government cannot allow prices to go down a lot. And the banks can’t allow prices to go down a lot. They were always my two partners."
— Harry Triguboff
I'm sending this to anyone who wants to lecture me on how Australia has free markets.
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So Aussie inflation is running at 7%, wages growth is running at 3.3% and we're seeing the largest ongoing destruction in household purchasing power since at least the 1980s.
So time for the RBA to sit on their hands, knowing full well it could take 20+ years to earn this back.
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Poland has an 86.8% home ownership rate and the fastest growing economy in Europe in recent years.
And the Polish government is using its brain so it stays that way.
JUST IN: Poland has cut the tax for first-time homebuyers and raised it for those who are purchasing additional properties
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Tomorrow marks the beginning of the bulk of Australian fixed rate mortgages ending and borrowers rolling off onto higher rates.
Over the course of the next quarter 222k fixed loans will expire at the Big 4 banks alone, followed by 207k in Q3.
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Why a 10 year Australian Navy vet decided to leave Australia with his young family.
I can't really fault his logic, he wants to put his family first.
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Canada, where you could end up paying for a mortgage without ever actually getting a mortgage or a home of your own
Its only a matter of time until this level of stupid makes it to Australia.
NDP leader
@theJagmeetSingh
wants government subsidies for mortgage borrowers facing rising payments…
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Apparently real estate agents are on the Australian governments list of skilled professionals eligible to apply for an employment visa.
Ah yes, the well known shortage of real estate agents, when there are agencies going under for want of enough listings.
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