Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
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I do finance and macro ... with data, at Princeton. Author, House of Debt. اک نقطے وچ گل مکدی اے
Joined January 2013
Six Americans won the Nobel prize this year in various sciences. ALL of them immigrants.
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1/ For the sake of the stability of the Government of Pakistan, I have resigned from the Economic Advisory Council, as the Government was facing a lot of adverse pressure regarding my appointment from the Mullahs (Muslim clerics) and their supporters.
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What keeps poor countries poor? This picture always reminds me of one important reason: "Resource misallocation". Here's the story. Eager to help his young country, Dr. Abdus Salam, the future Nobelist, returned to Pakistan in 1951 as a 25 years old star of the Physics world.
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🇵🇰 PM voted out of office by parliament after 3.5 years. He inherited a bad economy, but leaves it in even worse shape.🧵.
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A🧵on what Feb 8 elections mean for Pakistan. Pakistan’s economy has consistently fallen behind globally – last year was one of the worse, with the economy actually contracting. Every macro fundamental is flashing red: inflation, growth, debt, investment, to name a few.1/n.
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4/ My prayers will always be with Pakistan and I will always be ready to help it in any way that is required.
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Listen to the women when they say “mera jism meree marzi”. Ask them what it means. Don’t try translating it using your sick minds.
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2/ Nevertheless, I will always be ready to serve Pakistan as it is the country in which I was raised and which I love a great deal. Serving my country is an inherent part of my faith and will always be my heartfelt desire.
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If only they knew, how much he loved them, how deeply he cared for them, how he dedicated his life's work for their betterment.
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I really don't care about the abuse I get here. But please get the economics right, people's lives matter.
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To make someone feel foreign in their own home is one of the most cruel and unjust acts.
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3/ Moving forward, I now hope and pray that the Economic Advisory Council is able to fulfill its mandate in the very best way so that the Pakistani people and nation can prosper and flourish.
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معاش کا تعلق معاشرہ سے ہے.معاشرہ درست کیجئے، معیشت بھی ہو جاۓ گی.
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Never trust politicians who beg other countries to help their own people. The secret to development is in the productive capacity of your own people. Work on that.
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Sorry to report that my zoom economics seminar at IBA Karachi has been cancelled due to threats that the university administration was facing from extremists. My very best wishes and prayers are with the students of IBA.
So excited to be able to chat with students @ibakarachi on Nov 5th. Come join us.
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Pakistan's economy is not in a good place - per capita income has not risen in 3 years (in fact down slightly). Even over the last 20 years, income per capita has grown at a paltry 1.9%. 🧵.
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My favorite is "currency stabilized" . It reminds me of the joke where a courtier is too afraid to tell the king that his favorite horse has died - so he lovingly tells him:. عالی جاہ، آپ کا گھوڑا بہت ہی پرسکون نیند سو رہا ہے.
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2021: Humanity faces a small test. Vaccinate about 5 billion adults, at $20 per head for $100B. Jeff Bezos could do it alone and still have $87B left over, or the world could spare 5 cents out of every $ of military expenditure and get it done. Will we pass the test?.
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watch this. this is why baseball can never get close to cricket.
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The tragedy of Afghanistan. Nations can only be built from the inside, not outside. It’s true for all.
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1/ A thread on why corrupt real estate tycoons are terrible for the economy. First, the more obvious. They make money by stealing from the public, i.e. they "buy" public land at way below market value through bribes and connections.
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He is the most remarkable scientist of the 20th century. Could have won multiple Nobel Prizes. Faced tremendous persecution and bigotry . Yet built an institute for under-represented scientists, benefiting over 100K and counting. Watch his amazing journey "Salam" on Netflix.
As a 14-year-old boy, Abdus Salam gained the highest marks ever recorded for the Matriculation Examination at University of the Punjab. In 1979, he shared the #NobelPrize in Physics for contributions to the electroweak unification theory. Learn more:
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Pakistan is on an explosive coronavirus trajectory and needs to take immediate, bold and clear-headed steps to protect its people and the economy. What needs to be done?
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If we cannot make vaccination mandatory, can we at least make learning statistics compulsory?.
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GameStop is an interesting story, but there is a bigger and much more serious question about financial markets. As someone who studies finance, I know finance has tremendous potential to benefit society. But there is something serious to worry in the trend since the 80s.
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Why study economics?. It is a science that tries to understand when and how the sum is bigger than its parts. It is a study of what is in our collective good. I love it. Don't listen to the cynics.
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Abdus Salam would win the Nobel prize. He would also succeed in his mission to build a world-class center for Physics. To date, over 100,000 scientists have come through this center. Salam wanted to build this center in Pakistan . but he was made a soccer coach.
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I was into intermittent fasting way before it was considered cool. Ramazan Mubarak!.
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The Covid-19 recession is the strangest recession in living memory. For starters, it is the most unequal recession - like the virus, decimating some and untouching others.
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We search for luxuries in life, but the ultimate luxury is life itself. So enjoy the "little things" in life: a child's smile, a mother's hug, a bird's chirp, nihari . and try to peel away another person's sorrow. Merry Christmas to all who celebrate. Happy Holidays everyone.
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What is corruption? 🧵. The most damaging sort of corruption is legal. It is the self-serving set of rules that allow the governing elite to allocate land and state gifts to their own names for pennies to the dollar.
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A 🧵comparing Ghana, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and what it teaches us about dealing with crises . Ghana and Sri Lanka formally defaulted during the last two years, Pakistan did not. but currency devalued by 1/2 for both Pakistan and Ghana, and 1/3rd for Sri Lanka.
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There is an attempt – once again – to cobble together a compromised group. No one has a plan to fix the economy. But even if they magically did somehow, they cannot do anything . because they have lost all trust with their people. they are foreigners in their own land./end.
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Is Bitcoin worth it?. Bitcoin is socially wasteful and practically useless. It is consuming electricity equivalent to the entire power consumption of Pakistan, a country of 200M+. And what use does it offer? Practically none. Its value only represents speculative craze.
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Don’t judge people by how they look, or how they pray . Why is it so hard to understand?.
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Obey the authorities. They may not be perfect, and we may have strong opinions about them. But staying organized, disciplined and patient is of utmost importance right now. Help the authorities and work WITH them like your own.
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Bangladesh is expected to be richer than India by 2030. Last 10 years have been impressive, strong export growth, consistent current account surplus / macro stability, reigning-in extremism. Any insights @mushfiqmobarak ?
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When those in power wonder why the country is not heading in the right direction, rationality suggests its because they never deserved to be in power. The irony is that those most eager to get to power are often the least competent to exercise it.
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1/ Discriminating against someone on the basis of religion, race, gender, or anything else is one of the dumbest things we could do. Many studies have shown the economic cost of discrimination and bigotry for societies. When we discriminate, we hurt ourselves before anyone else.
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Searching for truth?. look for those who are not allowed to speak.
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Hate-mongering has proven to be the dominant electoral strategy around the world. How does one break the cycle? Any ideas? its depressing.
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Just to state the obvious. Colin Kaepernick is the Muhammad Ali of our times. It takes real courage to give up what you have worked so hard for all your life, for nothing but principles.
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20,000 Pakistanis own 10.6 billion dollars in dubai real estate alone . very interesting work from Alstadsæter, Planterose, Økland and @gabriel_zucman .
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A good decision - long overdue to begin the journey toward rule of law. I hope those who get to power next do not forget the real purpose of democracy:. Prosperity, Justice and Equal treatment for all.
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The shady establishment that calls shots from behind is especially clueless. SIFC? . Really? . You expect foreigners to believe in the country when your own people are losing all hope?.5/n.
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Disappointed and unappreciated, Abdus Salam went back to UK. There, at only 30, he was offered a chair and asked to head the center for theoretical Physics at Imperial College. Here is a picture of him in London, sitting with Physicists as the chair of the department.
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Politicians and journalists are clamoring to reduce petrol price in Pakistan. This is irresponsible and short-sighted. Petrol in Pakistan is currently 20% cheaper than neighboring India.
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A real investment leads to real output in the future. Like investing in seeds and fertilizer that produces fruit, or building a hospital that serves people. Bitcoin is not a real investment.
Is Bitcoin a real investment?.
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They obviously sensed the people’s anger, so every action to rig the elections was taken – . except it only made the public madder. So here we are post Feb 8 – the distance between the ruler and the ruled has never been wider. Do they understand how dangerous that is?.8/n.
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1/ How should one evaluate the “structural adjustment” program between IMF and Pakistan?. The program is the result of years of poor policy choices that led to low productivity and unsustainable imbalance as i detailed in 2018.
1/ On Pakistan's #IndependenceDay2018 , why is the country still far from economic independence? (e.g. seeking its largest bail out ever this year) . I'll focus on last 5 years as an example . it will get a bit technical but i'll try to be clear.
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1/ Are u interested in reading books that explain important economic ideas for the world around us? Written by some of the best economists and based on solid research? I'd recommend three recent books (in no particular order).
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“In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.”.MLK.
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Guy walks into a bank in Lahore & is stopped by security guard for not wearing a mask. He sees a man walk out of the bank with a mask on. "Brother, can i borrow your mask to go inside?". "Sure!", and the man hands over his mask. (a short theory of second best).
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SVB collapsed because of their exposure to interest rate risk. A 🧵 on interest rate risk at the macro level - which deserves more attention in my view.1/.
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A dive into recent data suggests that Pakistan's economy is going off the rails. First, exports . there was a global surge in exports post-covid, but around 2nd quarter 2022, Pak exports drop off relative to India and Bang - the gap is now over 20%.1/
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۱/ پاکستان میں دائمی ترقی صرف اسی وقت ممکن ہے جب ہم غیروں پر انحصار کی بجاۓ خود اپنے زور بازو سے اپنی پیداواری صلاحیت بڑہائیں گے۔. ماضی میں تمام حکومتیں غیروں کے پیچھے بھاگتی رہیں، کہ کوئی کچھ دے دے، تا کہ عوام کو وقتی اور مصنوعی ترقی دکھا کر سیاسی دکان چمکائی جائے۔.
ڈاکٹر عاطف میاں @AtifRMian کے مطابق ’اصل مسئلہ ریاست کی صلاحیت میں کمی ہے‘ .
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My oped in the New York Times on what is needed to fix Pakistan's economy.
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Pakistan's economy is in a tailspin, going from crisis to catastrophe. The system is coming unhinged. We can see this in the increasing stagflationary forces: growth is rapidly falling, and prices are rapidly rising.🧵.
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It is extremely unfortunate that a government that millions had pinned high hopes on, has ended in such colossal failure. I hope those who come next learn from this, and their own past failures.
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The issue is not "default" per se - but its terrible consequences for the people. Pakistan has left itself almost completely at the mercy of foreign assistance - this is the real sin of its political elite.
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A 🧵on accounting vs economics when it comes to balance of payment crises. There's a temptation to look at financing or current account deficits and say, "we are short X billion dollars, let's bridge that gap through administrative actions by curtailing imports".
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We may have thought this was mathematically impossible, but it happened today:. "The price of US crude oil collapsed by 114% . ".
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Excellent step by Pakistan for peace.
'This is the beginning': PM Imran inaugurates #Kartarpur Corridor on historic day.
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Economics is about providing the most benefit to humanity given our current knowhow and resources. In this day and age, there is no excuse for the prevalence of hunger, infant mortality, lack of education etc. All of these maladies represent abject policy failures.
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❤️.
Introducing you to the Abdus Salam Library 📚. The library was named to honour Nobel Prize winning physicist and Imperial Professor, Abdus Salam. Find out more 👇.
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The decision to lower prices was purely political, to gain public support, and perhaps more importantly set a minefield for the incoming PMLN government. politics trumped the national interest . and the irony is that the decision worked politically.
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I'll be doing few 🧵 on economic development in coming days. Growing up in a poor country, I chose to study economics to help understand how we can make better economic decisions collectively. I'll be sharing one idea at a time - on what I feel is important for development.
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1/ Another 73 killed in a train accident that should have been avoided if there were proper protocols and procedures. The broader issue is the appointment of utterly incompetent people in extremely important positions.
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One reason is that while oil prices were going higher, Pakistan was selling some of the cheapest oil in the world domestically!. PTI government reduced price domestically and started to subsidize it. How can Pakistan pay for it? It never could.
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How do you tell a third grader that he/she is getting kicked out of school because of their faith?. At least put a minimum age for discrimination.
4 Ahmadi students from The Educators Mithial campus in Attock were removed. Their crime as written below is being an Ahmadi. This is one of the so called leading educational institution in Pakistan by @BSSWorldwide.What an individuals faith has to do with education?
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1/ Can governments in poor countries facilitate development by supporting certain industries? When does such "industrial policy" make sense? This is an old and contentious question. A lovely new paper by Ernest Liu provides sharp new insights. I will try to explain . .
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10 out of the 29 cricket players selected for Pakistan's tour of England test positive for Covid-19. provides another insight into the real scale of pandemic in Pakistan. a randomized survey had also found very high infection rates a few weeks ago.
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Are we spending wisely?. Pandemics, climate change, mass displacements . Our problems are collective, requiring us to work together. Yet we spend 2,000 B$ in military, preparing to fight one another. And only 50 B$ in UN, trying to live with one another. Isn't this insane?.
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But the establishment was busy playing its usual games – . put this one in jail, and that one in parliament this time – . keep the system just unstable enough so we stay relevant – . our children be damned.7/n.
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Those who write the rules never do anything illegal. But they can still be corrupt.
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My conversation with IMF magazine on why i love economics. It teaches us on how we can organize ourselves, so the sum is bigger than the parts. It forces us to realize, that we are all in it together. Whatever "it" is.
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The chickens have come home to roost. China’s lending to some of the most fragile countries was poorly structured and often not in the best interest of recipient countries. I will spell out the issues. 1/.
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He wanted to build a world-class Physics department at the university he joined. But guess what job he was handed by the head of the university? . A soccer coach! . Here he is sitting with the soccer players (and feeling out of place).
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It is in this backdrop that Feb 8 elections were held. People are mad – and they have every right to be. 442,353 children died in Pakistan just last year due to poverty. that is almost half a million dead kids EVERY YEAR.6/n.
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This is like me bowling in a cricket test match.
PFIZER AND BIOTECH Vaccine:.Accuracy *94%.Moderna Vaccine: Accuracy *94.5%.Oxford Vaccine: Accuracy *90%.Indian Recovery rate (Without Vaccine): 93.6%.Do we seriously need vaccine 🤔🤔.
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1/ I will explain why starting a major credit-fueled housing program in the middle of serious balance of payment problems is not a good idea.
Government of Pakistan is proud to announce its upcoming Welfare Development Program Prime Minister's “Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme”. Registration will be announced soon in your cities. #NayaPakistan #HousingScheme #ImranKhan #AHopeForAll
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1/ On Pakistan's #IndependenceDay2018 , why is the country still far from economic independence? (e.g. seeking its largest bail out ever this year) . I'll focus on last 5 years as an example . it will get a bit technical but i'll try to be clear.
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This is patchwork economics, and unlikely to work . It is important to understand the deeper sources of structural imbalances. For example, one major source is unproductive sectors generating demand for foreign goods.
Pakistan bans import of all nonessential luxury goods in bid to stabilize economy, Information Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb says, describing situation as economic emergency.
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People sometimes ask, "where should we draw the line?". The answer is simple, draw a line between man and God. Don't cross over where you don't belong.
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Video of my Habib Lecture on “What to do about Pakistan’s economy?” at Berkeley. Thanks to all the brave souls who missed the Bay Area Junoon concert to attend my talk.
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1/ I will go with the minority view on this poll and argue that incompetence is the bigger constraint on development than corruption (of course ideally we want to avoid both). Let's compare China and Saudi Arabia
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The powerful are knee deep in unproductive, rent-seeking sectors like real estate and sugar. That must change. The taxation and incentive structure must favor productive activities over unproductive ones - and open up the economy to women. *the end*.
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Energy is mostly imported, medicine are mostly imported, even in food unfortunately pakistan is no longer self-sufficient.
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Pakistan's current account swung positive when Covid contracted GDP in 2020. But as GDP started recovering in 2021, it has again gone deeply negative - approaching 5% of GDP now. What does this tell us? 🧵.
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On poverty traps, and Pakistan. Poverty is a terrible thing - but it always comes with a silver lining. Poor people are willing to work for less, and knowledge they can use to be more productive is already out there. If only a government can help harness this natural advantage,
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The spread on $ debt (16%+) is in range where the number only matters for speculators now, the country is effectively shut off from private capital markets. Rupee has lost 20% of its value in 3 months, while current account remains negative and $ rollovers coming due.
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Why study economics?. It is a science that helps us understand how we are all connected in a mutually-reliant ecosystem. e.g. one person's supply is another person's demand . .
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