Allison Schrager
@AllisonSchrager
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Sex workers, studs, surfers, and pensions @portfoliobooks , senior fellow @ManhattanInst , @bopinion , @cityJournal
New York
Joined October 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
this article is what's wrong with everything. equality means being called out for a bad idea.
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1. Today is the big day! My book is finally on sale!
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@JoelWWood
@SadieCollective
@Noahpinion
@causalinf
@TrevonDLogan
@drlisadcook
@DinaPomeranz
@Claudia_Sahm
@Marietmora
@pqblair
it's crazy it is socially acceptable--even considered charming--to say you're not a math person--especially women and girls.
imagine if people said that about reading.
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I don't think this is right. Economists did see inflation coming, at least every one I spoke to, except for the ones who work in the government or the Fed.
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I've been in newsrooms begging for more coverage of great female economists who are actually changing the profession and our understanding of the economy. but I was always told their work was "boring" or "conventional"
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@senatorshoshana
I saw a woman lower her mask to smoke crack in Washington Square Park yesterday. i decided that's peak NYC 2021.
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with high grocery prices and the worst unemployment in generations, it seems tone deaf to be promoting a celebrity quiz show called the
#TheMiseryIndex
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@CliffordAsness
I've noticed a shift in the conversation. When I studied public finance the purpose of taxation was to raise necessary revenue as efficiently as possible. now some people think inequality is so pernicious the purpose of the tax code is to reduce it, revenue is almost secondary.
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I asked Jean Tirole every you could want to know about regulating tech--no better source via
@qz
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Until we have a theory why an inverted yield curve causes a recession, or know what causes an inverted yield curve also causes a recession--it tells us nothing. all you have is a handful of meaningless correlations.
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no one loves shopping more than I do. but in these spare times, worth wondering if we really need so much stuff. almost 1/3 of households have two refrigerators!
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This is actually true. no one likes him.
“...much more unity in this city than before I was mayor.” - de Blasio
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just because testing isn't perfect, doesn't mean we should discourage it. otherwise this happens. we can't eliminate risk, but we can reduce it.
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this says a lot about the economists in the administration then.
Economist critique of Biden's student loan move today (and no, the economists I've talked to in the admin are psyched about it)
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I am all for democratizing stock ownership. I've long argued more Americans should own stock. But this is not the way to do it. buy an index fund.
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like it or not, people are going to travel. Better they take some risk precautions and test, test, test. it's not perfect, but much better than nothing or shaming people.
Are you one of millions of Americans considering traveling to celebrate Thanksgiving this year?
Consider making a Bayesian risk assessment before you go.
@AllisonSchrager
tells us how.
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this is inflation, it's not fighting it.
Shake Shack will raise prices again in 2021 to fight inflation
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@michaelbatnick
is that for a single plan or account holder? I have 4 different DC plans at Fidelity--from various jobs.
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Which Is Riskier, Prostitution or Investing?
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rise of algos and passive investing coincided with historically low volatility for years. don't blame them now
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econ twitter seems glad a $15 minimum wage will destroy lower productivity, small businesses. The market won't do them in, it's government regulation that will drive them out of business. since when did we turn on small businesses?
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I should pitch a story on how structural inequality became an excuse to blow a large share of your income on discretionary luxury goods and personal finance nihilism
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Most surprising thing I learned: women in their 40s highest-paid and most in-demand sex workers via
@qz
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Guessing partisans won't care this plan expands benefits for widows and women and cuts benefits on high earners
As a public-opinion matter, it would be insane to attempt to pass this bill to cut Social Security benefits
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Yup, I really sat in the red-velvet, parlor of a brothel and ran Stata. the book really lives up to its name
One of my favorite anecdotes that
@AllisonSchrager
told me was when she visited brothels, with Stata and her laptop, and using data from a popular review website of sex workers, with all these sex workers crowded around her and leaning over her, showed them the returns to things
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@ModeledBehavior
the 70% rate is just class-baiting. hardly anyone earns more than $10 million and they won't pay it anyway. it is distraction for other strange things in AOC's agenda
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"until recently economists ignored inequality" except for all that research from the 90s
Should we blame economists (and trade) for the death of small town America?
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I am noticing the arguments for wealth taxes seem to hinge on 2 assumptions
1. wealthy people are lousy investors
2. their wealth acquired in some terrible/unproductive or just unfair way
@wwwojtekk
what's the evidence for this?
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can any one explain why an inverted yield curve causes a recession, or if the same factors that cause inversion cause a recession? if you don't have a story it's is a meaningless correlation.
The last two times the yield curve inverted, in 1998 and 2008, the debate among economists was whether this time would be different.
In both cases, it wasn't and recession followed
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he's not wrong. no one understands macro, but weirdly, i don't think that's a criticism of macroeconomists
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Fed policy has been remarkably successful. stable inflation for almost 40 years, prevented a depression, and low unemployment, why do we need to shake things up with outsiders? why do we need MMT? what more do people want?
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But many economists were shouting from the rooftops (and ignored) that you can't spend a crazy amount AND keep sub-zero rates without causing inflation. it's not their fault the rest of the world became enthralled with MMT.
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Guess education is not just about signaling
New study finds premium on education among sex workers in Indonesia (just published in Feminist Economics by Kitae Sohn of Konkuk University). My earlier study also found a premium on education among US sex workers.
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my debate on wealth redistribution is up! it gets heated. as you can tell from the picture.
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pension cuts always seem to get people to the streets. but the retirement people expect never actually existed
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One thing that's remarkable about Covid-19 is everyone was wrong, if in March you thought it was no big deal--you were wrong. if you thought 2 million Americans would die--you were wrong.
There are now COVID-19 spikes in Spain, Australia, Germany, France. If this is the first you are hearing about it, blame your media intake.
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Today I am in the NYtimes on high end art. 2 weeks ago WSJ on horse breeding. Can’t say for a retirement economist I don’t have range. What’s next....
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Thrilled to return to my research roots as a senior fellow
@ManhattanInst
! My first
@CityJournal
contribution explains how risk is central to growth and the goal of policy
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Even non "math-people" are learning fast about exponential curves and higher order derivatives. Would also be great if we could add probability distributions.
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one outcome of the pandemic could be a risk shift, where Americans live in states that match their risk preferences. +1 for federalism
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thanks for having me by to geek out on EMH! can't think of a better way to spend an afternoon (and I really mean that)!
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I loved every minute writing my book, even writing, editing and re-editing. Because I loved the people I met.
@TheAliceLittle
@TheRubyRae
@ejeremy
@shelbystar4
at the brothel
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I reviewed
@Econ_4_Everyone
excellent book on Scale. I think it is much more than the business book it is marketed as, it also serves as a warning to those who think data holds all the answers
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I am starting to think this is evidence that economics needs more people doing theory. Few economists are putting out big new ideas any more, so it is tempting to fall for bad ideas.
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Unpopular opinion: a .25 rate hike makes very little difference to the macro economy, perhaps some signaling, but that's second order.
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twitter is melting down upon discovering women economists also think and reason like economists.
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My new podcast, Taking Green, just launched! An economist and psychologist talk personal finance.
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I, and every pension geek, die a little death on the inside
I think a good answer for "How will you pay for your agenda?" is "We're a very rich country. We'll figure it out."
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my first column for
@bopinion
! and on my favorite topic, retirement. even if the stock market is up you don't have as much as you think....
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i saw an add for travel to Scotland, playing up its remoteness. now this --new trend in tourism?
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The last few months showed the humanities have failed to teach critical thinking to college students. and that's a problem for many reasons.
@opinion
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Just arrived! Excited to read!
@tylercowen
always makes the convincing, pithy argument I wish I could make. And I am not convinced big=bad
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a couple things I disagree with but important point here. Post Lehman world made income A LOT more expensive. this is the retirement 'crisis' we aren't talking about
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The difference between risk and uncertainty is risk can be measured and managed. you can weigh trade-offs and decide if risk reduction is worth the cost.
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MMTers are the economics equivalent to climate change deniers.
In case you are wondering, MMT stands for “modern monetary theory.” It has been around for a while now, but is still very much a fringe idea in economics. It has been criticized by very liberal macro economists (e.g., Krugman) to very conservative macro economists.
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and that is less failure of the economics profession, and more about incentives in certain institutions.
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5. so no one can ever say to you, you can't understand markets or retirement, or anything. and if they do say that, or explain things in a way that doesn't make sense, they are confused not you.
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devastated about
@laurenalixb
. she made me the writer I am. her idea to go to a brothel, take risks as a writer and economist. and a beautiful writer herself
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But it does reduce risk. We really need more Bayesians in media and public health
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MMT
What popular-but-inaccurate scientific idea annoys you the most?
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3. and this should not be a thing, but it is. So few women write popular economics books. getting an advanced STEM degree has its challenges. but having a public voice poses many others. I still am told I can't understand finance, and need a man to explain it to me.
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Why can't we accept that people have good reasons for hating inflation, even if they get real wage gains? It introduces risk into every transaction because prices are less predictable. It's just like having a more volatile wage or asset--people prefer certainty.
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Government workers are supposed to face less income risk, one of the benefits of the job and they arguably take less pay for it. so totally rational they'd have less liquid saving. not sure if they do. but wouldn't blame them for it.
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when you get into the upper tail there is evidence of differences among the sexes 1
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2. l hope to make risk, and finance generally, more accessible to everyone. So I founds great stories who illustrate what people need to know. this was great fun. I love the book I wrote and I hope you do too.
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if we really wanted to use this moment to promote financial literacy, we'd explain diversification and why it should be the foundation of any investment strategy
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I didn't realize both Susan Rice and Kamala Harris had fathers who were economics professors.
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should've paid the premium for a legal brothel
🚨BREAKING: Florida prosecutors will release police surveillance videos of
@realDonaldTrump
’s pal, Robert Kraft, and 24 other men allegedly paying for sex at a “massage” parlor.
Kraft’s own attorney describes the video as “pornography.”🤢🤮
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saw a man with spray paint tagging the Manhattan Bridge today--in broad daylight--but wearing a mask. peak NYC now
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Economists may not have great models on inflation. But we do know that if you send everyone checks and pay for that by expanding the money supply, that is inflationary.
@PIrelandEcon
#greatForgetting
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statistically we've never had it so good. yet it feels like everything is awful. I think it's because we have more, but sense more risk. the risk we'll lose it all. thank you
@endeavoringE
for having me on to discuss what's driving populism
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peak aging boomer: an annuity trade group is the sole sponsor of the rolling stones next world tour
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@HannoLustig
a reporter i know once wrote a story on the state of macro, she interviewed some big names, like Olivier Blanchard. but cut his comments for some provocative quotes from anthropologist at Cambridge.
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we really are doomed to repeat the 70's, aren't we?
New legislation on "price gouging" just dropped
#econtwitter
. Summary: fight inflation by making price increases illegal (Bonus: implement a strong Robinson-Patman like ban on price discrimination by large firms). 1/8
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perhaps we can reconcile this if we also require probability.
It's a critical lifeskill and I am shocked how many "educated" people don't know the basics.
Me: Everyone should learn math
Me: Also, statistics is the most practical math for people to learn
Everyone on Twitter: I just ran 1,000,000 regressions and found [totally crazy thing]
Me: Oh God I take it back
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will we never approach risk the same way again? I doubt it, people have short and selective memories.
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Buy America was always a bad idea. but the bigger the bill and the more modern the economy, the worse it is.
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a preview of our UBI future
What has happened to the Alaskan frontier? So this is how a society without dynamism operates?
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But I thought you can increase taxes on higher earners and it makes no difference to the economy
I told the president myself today: SALT repeal is hurting us. And if you hurt New York, you’re harming the economic engine of the nation.
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I wrote a parable on movies, and why it is so hard to predict winners--which is why there are so many bad movies
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my interview with
@fatihguvenen
where he will blow up everything you think you know about wages and the labor market
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the weird thing about real estate in America is the Federal government subsidizes demand and the local government limits supply. no surprise prices are so high
A 2.6% fixed rate on a 30-year risky asset never made much sense, says
@AllisonSchrager
(via
@opinion
)
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