
AI Bracketology π
@AI_Bracketology
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#BracketologyBot π€ | Using AI to predict the NCAA tournament field
Joined February 2023
Gameday! Hoping for a great one between Houston and Florida tonight π. Here's how 32-Point Challenge Leaderboard currently stands, with the following scenarios: . 1) Clayton's stat total is less than 26 and Houston/Florida combine for 23 or less three pointers: @Bubbie121410
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Teams with no Q3/Q4 losses and at least 2 signature (Q1A) wins, by #BracketologyBot seed line:.1: Bama, KU, Purdue.2: TX, Ariz, Baylor.3: Tenn, Marq, KSt.4: Iowa St.5: Ind.6: NW.8: Ill, Prov.9: Mizzou. Nebraska.#Bracketology.
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Pretty much spending my morning plotting out the path for @HuskerHoops to make the tournament.
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#BracketologyBotπ€ New-ish graphic to share some tournament forecasting!. Again using WAB to calculate the odds each team will make the tournament. This time, I've shown the bracket that KenWAB currently projects, with West Virginia being the last team IN and Georgia the first
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Fun fact: Maryland, a team right next to SC in KenPom rankings, is 3-9 in games decided by six points or fewer this year. SC ranks 3rd in luck.Maryland ranks 349th in luck. Sometimes, the bounces just go your way π€·ββοΈ.
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@T3Bracketology win of the day so far IMO. Cyclones felt dead so many times, crazy win prob chart
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 03/09/2025 Update. 7 Days Until Selection Sunday!. Congrats to Nebraska Omaha and SIU Edwardsville for clinching their first ever tournament appearances yesterday! Both currently project as a 16 seed, teams that have clinched a spot now shown in Italics in
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Top 75 NET Rankings with SOR 50/50 split applied. This was quickly done (definitely not the most elegant solution), but what do we think?
As the lean to the predictive side is so heavy, of course beating up on bad teams by 35+ is going to matter. This is why the NET tracks so closely to the other predictive metrics (BPI & KenPom). Don't eliminate the predictive/efficiency component of the NET, just don't skew it so.
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 02/18/2025 Update. 26 days until Selection Sunday!. - The 1 seeds stay the same after the weekend. Probably in the minority here, but I still have Alabama holding onto the #2 overall spot behind Auburn. - Iowa State gets back to the 2 line with Purdue's loss
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 02/05/2025 Update. New format π¨. I've now fully automated everything, from my seed list each morning to the final bracket post for this account! Took a bit of time to go through and store the team logos and colors, but a bit of code behind the scenes does
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In my opinion, these are the only possible bubble teams. Every team above Baylor is very safe, and every team below SMU is eliminated from at-large contention. Graphic below shows the order I have them + upcoming games for each ‡οΈ. - San Francisco would be eliminated tonight with
#BracketologyBotπ€ - 03/10/2025 Update. 6 Days Until Selection Sunday!. Congrats to Drake, High Point, and Lipscomb for securing their dance tickets yesterday! π. Here is how we are looking heading into Championship Week:.- A few games from Saturday did not make it into my
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - Bubble Watch 03/12/2025. A bunch of important bubble games today!. 18 teams for 9 spots ‡οΈ. - Nebraska and San Francisco have been removed. No shot for an at-large now with both their seasons having ended. - Being generous, but decided to add Cincinnati. It's
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Know this has been said a few times, but the top seeds could be facing some real tough competition in the second round this year. Look at the projected 8 seeds in @T3Bracketology latest seed list compared to the past 5 tournaments. You either get:. - 2-time defending champion
NEW Seed List - 2/21. Last 4 IN: Vandy, Ohio St, VCU, OU.First 4 OUT: UGA, TCU, Arkansas, IU.Next 5 OUT: Xavier, UNC, SMU, San Francisco, Boise St. Extended bubble & toughest seed areas in the comments.
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 03/15/2025 Update. 1 Day Until Selection Sunday!. Updates:.- Alabama could be the final 1 seed with win over Florida today.- St. John's breaks through and takes the last 2 seed.- Maryland and Wisconsin jump into the 3 line with big wins yesterday. TBD if they
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I've had Oklahoma in my projected field all season long because of their non-conference performance, even as they sat at 3-10 in the SEC in late February. It looked especially dim a week ago, but three wins later and Oklahoma has all but locked up their tournament spot. What a.
#BracketologyBotπ€ - Bubble Watch 03/12/2025. A bunch of important bubble games today!. 18 teams for 9 spots ‡οΈ. - Nebraska and San Francisco have been removed. No shot for an at-large now with both their seasons having ended. - Being generous, but decided to add Cincinnati. It's
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 02/28/2025 Update. 16 Days Until Selection Sunday!. - Michigan State has arrived! The Spartans will still have work to do to get to a 1 seed, but they are now closer to the top 6 teams than they are to the teams directly below them after the crazy win at
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 03/02/2025 Update. 14 Days Until Selection Sunday!. - New movement on the 1 line, as my model now projects Houston as the #2 overall seed following yesterday's results (personally, I'd be surprised if a 3-loss Duke isn't the second team mentioned on Selection
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - KenWAB Tournament Forecast 02/20/2025. Changes from yesterday:.- Oregon locks up a spot π.- New Mexico still safe after loss to Boise State, only falling from 89% -> 84%.- Nebraska takes the biggest hit, falling from 73% -> 53% π.- West Virginia gets some
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 03/10/2025 Update. 6 Days Until Selection Sunday!. Congrats to Drake, High Point, and Lipscomb for securing their dance tickets yesterday! π. Here is how we are looking heading into Championship Week:.- A few games from Saturday did not make it into my
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 2/26 Update. * Reposting (full updated metrics didn't load in correctly π¬, oops).* Not much movement among Top 4 seeds π.* UK, Wake π BYU, NM π.* St. John's back on bubble graphic π«§.* Auto-bid not out of picture for Princeton, JMU
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 02/24/2025 Update. 20 Days Until Selection Sunday!. - Top 6 teams stay put. Almost 100% certain the four 1 seeds will come from these six teams π.- Big shake-up after that. The two big winners: Michigan State and St. John's. Both jump a line (3 -> 2 and 4 ->
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#BracketologyBotπ€ Final Thoughts. 66/68 teams correctly placed in.45/68 teams on the correct seed line. The Good.- North Carolina. I correctly predicted the Tar Heels to be in the field, leaning into WAB for selection this year. Don't personally love it, especially at the
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - Bubble Watch 03/13/2025. 14 teams for 7 spots ‡οΈ. Updates from yesterday:.- Baylor and Oklahoma are now locks π Can't see them missing the tournament even with losses today. - West Virginia took a bad loss yesterday but will be OK. Definitely helps being
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@T3Bracketology UNC odds actually went down after beating Pitt lol. Was 89% according to same article on Friday.
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100% agree with what @madeformarch says here about formulas. When I started toying with bracketology, I tried using one formula to apply to every team across the board and it was terrible. From that, and using some some of my comp sci/robotics background, I now use one large.
An administrative note here on my process before we get started:. There are no wrong ways to do bracket projections, and everyone you see on this app does things uniquely, which is really the true beauty of this all. For me, I literally deconstruct the bracket and rebuild it in.
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 1/31/2025 Update. - Easy pickings for the 1 seeds, same as last week.- Some shuffling around the next few lines. The biggest name: Houston, who I had as a 5 seed last week, finally collects now 3 Q1 wins to complement their #1 across the board quality metrics
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OK, here we go. #BracketologyBotπ€ - Selection Sunday Morning Update. I'll put one more out before the show this afternoon as things could change with the few games we have today. But, this is where I currently stand:. - The 1 seeds are set. I still have Auburn #1 overall, but
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - Final Selection Sunday Update. Thanks for following along this year! Almost hit 1k followers for this silly little hobby πͺ. I never expect to be the most accurate, especially since I'm using a series of algorithms to predict everything, but it's still fun to
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Would have preferred a 20 pt win to help some low metrics, but Nebraska continues to avoid their first Q3/Q4 loss and the long shot dream stays alive for now. 5-1 this month. Next up for @HuskerHoops: home vs @MSU_Basketball #bracketology.
Teams with no Q3/Q4 losses and at least 2 signature (Q1A) wins, by #BracketologyBot seed line:.1: Bama, KU, Purdue.2: TX, Ariz, Baylor.3: Tenn, Marq, KSt.4: Iowa St.5: Ind.6: NW.8: Ill, Prov.9: Mizzou. Nebraska.#Bracketology.
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This was a pretty accurate estimate. UConn WAB now at 0.35, a hit of -0.95 for the Seton Hall loss. Now 43rd in WAB ranking. Again, theyβre fine. But does validate some of the WAB estimations Iβve been doing for tourney forecasting π.
Tweeted two days ago that UConn having tourney odds of 74% per KenWAB felt low, and with their 4 Q1A wins + weak bubble I still think they are pretty safe. But that WAB is going to take a big hit today. Started the day #36 in WAB at 1.30, and with a projected WAB hit of about.
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And corresponding KenWAB Tourney Odds for these teams‡οΈ. Confirms my belief that there is a gap after Wake Forest! . And K-State still only at 2.15%, you're fine @JBRBracketology π
#BracketologyBotπ€ - Bubble Update 02/12/2025. - SMU moves IN, San Diego St. moves OUT.- Arkansas needs to hold serve at home vs LSU tonight.- Small gap between Wake Forest and VCU; all teams in Next 4+ OUT are probably a couple wins (or one big win) away from jumping into the
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#BracketologyBotπ€ 02/24/2025 KenWAB Tournament Odds. Updates:.- Now 28 Locks π Welcome UCLA, Clemson, Louisville, Saint Mary's, Kansas, Utah State.- BYU goes from 59% on Friday to 89% today π.- As always, KenWAB high on Oklahoma following the win over Mississippi State and
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 03/07/2025 Update. 9 Days Until Selection Sunday!. - Welcome back to the 1 line Florida Gators! Alabama falls to a 2 π.- Texas Tech takes the rotating spot at #8 overall. I do think a St. John's win Sunday at Marquette will be enough to vault them into this
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#BracketologyBotπ€ Top 4 Seeds 1/8/2025. - Auburn, Duke, Iowa State are the clear top 3. - Looking at the whole body of work (and not just last nights blowout loss), the computer still likes Tennessee as the fourth 1 seed. - Alabama, Florida, and Marquette are also clear picks
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 03/14/2025 Update. 2 Days until Selection Sunday!. Updates:.- The battle for the last 1 seed will continue today with the top dogs in the SEC starting play!.- Iowa State and Texas Tech both lose but remain on the 3 line. The door is open, however, for the
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 1/10/2025 Update. - A few changes to the top 4 seeds I posted on Wednesday morning!.- Alabama grabs the final 1 seed. Iowa State was holding on with better predictive metrics, but Alabama winning by 20 on the road made up enough of the difference. Those two,
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π¨ #BracketologyBot Official 1 Seed Odds π¨. Earlier during the Auburn/Alabama game, ESPN put up a graphic stating Auburn only had a 49.5% chance of securing a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I thought that seemed low, especially since current betting markets had them at -10000
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@kerrancejames I couldnβt believe when I saw that. Need to bully them to fix that like their tournament odds π.
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 02/07/2025 Update. 37 Days until Selection Sunday!. - No changes at the top since Wednesday. Tennessee secures their spot as the final 1 seed with the win vs Missouri 1β£.- 2 through 4 also maintain positions on seed lines, although slightly different order
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If you start The Dark Knight at 9:47:38PM this evening, youβll watch this scene as the calendar turns to March. @JonRothstein
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Updated KenWAB Tournament Odds for 02/13/2025 ‡οΈ. I've broken this down into the following tiers this time!. Tier 1: Dark Gold π (Auburn to Michigan St.).These teams will be in the NCAA Tournament. Tier 2: Gold (Illinois to Louisville).Barring an epic collapse, these teams will
π¨Introducing KenWAB: A new way to look at a team's tournament chances!. As many have pointed out this week, ESPN's Bubble Watch article has been using their own BPI metric to determine how likely it is a team will make the NCAA Tournament, resulting in some strange odds (looking
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Team Iβll be keeping on eye on today: Gonzaga. Top 10 in the country with a predictive metric average of 10.7, and the Bulldogs will end the season with the following three games. Will anyone really be shocked if Gonzaga is a 4 seed in the Seattle pod this March?
#BracketologyBotπ€ - 02/21/2025 Update. 23 days until Selection Sunday!. Updates:.- Duke regains #2 overall spot from Alabama.- Wisconsin jumps to a 2 seed with 20-pt win over Illinois π.- After that, gets weird. I have the teams from Iowa State to Arizona all very close, can
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For all my new Nebraska @HuskerHoops fans: The bot currently has them as the 18th team out with a TON of ground to make up. Let's blowout Minnesota today! #bracketology.
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 3/15 Update. Here we go!. * 14 AQs now in the field π.* Dayton loses its AQ designation to VCU as the bubble shrinks by one spot π«§.* Didn't notice this the other day, but I actually have Houston-UConn-Purdue as order for 1 seeds π³ It's close enough to
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Buckeyes were one of 47 teams with a positive WAB entering today, will no longer be the case tomorrow after a ~0.70 hit tonight. Frankly should be even lower with Northwestern being Barnhizer-less.
#BracketologyBotπ€ - KenWAB Tournament Forecast 02/20/2025. Changes from yesterday:.- Oregon locks up a spot π.- New Mexico still safe after loss to Boise State, only falling from 89% -> 84%.- Nebraska takes the biggest hit, falling from 73% -> 53% π.- West Virginia gets some
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 02/21/2025 Update. 23 days until Selection Sunday!. Updates:.- Duke regains #2 overall spot from Alabama.- Wisconsin jumps to a 2 seed with 20-pt win over Illinois π.- After that, gets weird. I have the teams from Iowa State to Arizona all very close, can
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@husker_prodz @HuskerHoops itβs a very long shot haha, but obviously starts with beating Minnesota handily tomorrow to start lowering ranking in NET, KPI, and other metrics committee uses. win next 3 and itβll at least make it interesting heading into B1G tournament.
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Future project idea for me: looking at individual plays in a game and determining how they change a teamβs odds of making the tournament. From the example below, Georgia went from 28.5% to 53% odds of winning vs Florida today on that Cain shot. Combine that with Georgiaβs.
Absolute meltdown in the last couple minutes from Georgia, but Blue Cain hits the big 3 and they find the win in the end. Massive shot to completely change the bubble picture and Georgiaβs tournament hopes.
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Definitely donβt think my bracketology model is perfect. Just this morning, I wasnβt thrilled with it giving Colorado as the last team IN. But itβs nice knowing Iβm putting something out completely free of outside influence or bias, even if I donβt always agree with it.
Always think about this at this time of year:. The proliferation of bracketology and a community surrounding it, and whether those create a hive mind, so to speak. Let's do a π§΅.
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38/68 exact.60/68 off by 1.67/68 in the field. Missed FAU for Oklahoma. Not terrible, but obviously way too high on the MWC.
#BracketologyBotπ€ - FINAL UPDATE. Nothing really changes from the morning as the final AQs are locked in! Happy Selection Show!
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@madeformarch Iβm dreaming higherβ¦ βand the final one seed, in the West region, coming off a win earlier today in the SEC Tournament Championship, the Texas A&M Aggiesβ.
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 3/16 Update. 1 day until Selection Sunday! π. Feel pretty confident that every team down to Michigan State will be in the field π. That leaves 7 teams for 4 spots. New Mexico and Virginia are in OK-ish spots for now. NM can obviously take the decision out
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Very cool of @SethDavisHoops to join @T3Bracketology today to debate tournament expansion. Iβm still opposed, but if it did happen, would hope it would look something like below instead of making every 15 and 16 seed have to play a play-in game. Really hate the current βPower 5β.
@jacob_scheck @SethDavisHoops let's try this one more time. if we absolutely had to expand, this is how it should be done. @SethDavisHoops feel free to send to the @NCAA
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 3/1 Update. Happy March!. * Kentucky climbs to a 4 seed π.* TTU falls from a 5 to an 8 π.* Arizona takes final 1 seed but it's close. Tennessee might grab it with win @ Bama this weekend 1β£.* Memphis rejoins bubble graphic π«§
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#BracketologyBotπ€ Bubble Update 3/10 π«§. * Iowa likely enters field with win today π.* A&M, NM, Nova, Providence obvious must wins in 1st round of conf tourneys .* Wake/Pitt potential elimination game in ACC quarters.* Right column = Needs a lot of help π. Full update tomorrow
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No major changes from yesterday's update besides Michigan dropping to a 4!. For those unaware or any new followers, I run my bracketology model in two parts: 1) An initial team score formula that pods teams into different groups and 2) A unique algorithm for each pod that more
#BracketologyBotπ€ - 03/02/2025 Update. 14 Days Until Selection Sunday!. - New movement on the 1 line, as my model now projects Houston as the #2 overall seed following yesterday's results (personally, I'd be surprised if a 3-loss Duke isn't the second team mentioned on Selection
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Last 4 Byes: UVA, Providence, Seton Hall, Gonzaga.Last 4 In: New Mexico, Colorado, Wake Forest, St. Johnβs.First 4 Out: Utah, Ole Miss, Drake, Syracuse.Next 4 Out: Nova, Oregon, Iowa, Kansas St. Will run a full update tomorrow morning!.
#BracketologyBotπ€ - 2/26 Update. * Reposting (full updated metrics didn't load in correctly π¬, oops).* Not much movement among Top 4 seeds π.* UK, Wake π BYU, NM π.* St. John's back on bubble graphic π«§.* Auto-bid not out of picture for Princeton, JMU
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 2/9 Update. * Arizona's turn to hold the last 1 seed with win @ Utah.* FAU falls to a 9 with UAB loss.* Since Monday, only actual movement in and out of field this week was Colorado falling to first team out and Nevada taking their place. Thoughts?
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#BracketologyBotπ€ - 3/11 Update. Best two weeks of the year coming up!. * Last 1 seed still up for grabs 1β£.* 2/3 cutline close (Creighton, ISU, Marq, Bay). Not adjusting for the Kolek injury currently. * Colorado and up = pretty safe π. Bubble talk to follow π«§
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@madeformarch saw a tweet today that Kansas hasnβt lost a senior night game since 1983. absurd.
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