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napkin calculations @TheSpartanGroup | views are my own | 🇪🇸
Hong Kong
Joined October 2015
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Pinned Tweet
Small thread on why Aevo (RBN) looks cool:
Fundamentals:
1. Market leader in the options landscape (72% mkt share in just 4 months since launching), and slowly growing their penetration in the perps landscape (increasing from 0.02% market share in May 2023 to 0.48% in Nov 2023)
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Token Dashboard for every thesis that I believe will be big this year:
a) Multichain thesis: 🌉Bridge Token Dashboard
$ACX, $HOP, $SYN...
b) ETH POS thesis: 💧🥩LSD Token Dashboard
$LIDO, $RPL, $SWISE...
c) Gambling thesis: 🎲GambleFi Token Dashboard
$RLB, $KNK, $BETS...
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Spent the whole day making this spreadsheet about the perps landscape (the screenshot doesn´t include every protocol covered).
It´s interesting to analyze what the market/street may be looking at when buying or selling these tokens and where there may be inefficiencies.
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It´s
#L222
season so I decided to do a price prediction of $HOP by relative comparison with the $ENS, $OP, and $PSP airdrop.
It´s based on the assumption that 🐰 $HOP will have a similar market cap at launch as $SYN and that only 50% of addresses will claim their tokens. 🧵👇...
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I expect $HOP to learn from the $OP airdrop drama, and for the claiming process to be flawless.
Summing up=
1. $150M predicted market cap (during the first week).
2. 29.25 - 32.25M $HOP as Initial Circulating Supply.
🐰 $HOP= 4.65-5.15$
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Wrote a deep-dive into TEE coprocessors and why I believe Automata ($ATA) may be an interesting play that benefits from tailwinds in the SUAVE ecosystem + L2s + AI and DEPIN .
It´s my first time diving into middleware, so I hope it´s decent lmao:
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GM, just bought my first
@DerivativeApes
. Can I get some love from the
#SODAgang
?
The quality of the art is amazing. Excited to join the community. LFG!
#SODAtivity
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Pendle is literally going to reach 2B in TVL in 1 month max. Save the tweet.
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I recently made a spreadsheet that compares Optimism and Arbitrum unit economics.
Next, I want to turn it into an L2 Valuation Model that studies the impact of EIP-4844, which is expected to happen in Q3/Q4 2023. Make sure to bookmark it!
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I´m excited to share that I will be joining
@TheSpartanGroup
this summer as an Investment Analyst in their HK office. I am really grateful to
@gabrieltanhl
for introducing me to the team.
I will try to keep delivering free alpha + make sure to subscribe to my Mirror. Thanks!
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Work in progress, but you can already check some of the databases. I will try to keep it simple.
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Doing some napkin math and with some heavy assumptions, I believe each Arkham point will be worth 55 $ARKM tokens.
I estimate the total points to be 1.8M and with 100M airdropped tokens at TGE that gives you the ≈55x conversion rate.
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I am building out a whole model/engine for the perps landscape, the same I did for bridges. Probably over-analyzed, but here are some screenshots:
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Bought a long-term bag on $RBN (soon to be $AEVO). They have been constantly onboarding users to their rollup, and volume and fees inside the platform has been increasing c24% monthly.
Shared more thoughts and insights on my FT, give it a look.
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Had to do it 🫡
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Beanstalk's Future in DeFi: A Dev Update
1/n
When the Beanstalk DAO suffered a gov hack last year, I thought the project was dead in the water. But after reading the latest updates and joining the last community call, I'm excited to see the progress they're making. 🧵👇
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New mirror post. It´s not a formal report, just sharing my thoughts with some graphs and data from my bridge spreadsheet. Wrote it in just a few hours.
The TLDR of the thesis / thoughts is if bridge aggregators win, Across wins. Happy to hear feedback.
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One of the best Research Firms by far. Read this:
How should investors shape their investment frameworks around BTC and ETH correlations to traditional indices/benchmarks and valuation?
[THREAD 1/20]
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BetSwirl: my fundamental play. Based on my estimates, $BETS could return a 4.9x in a base case, and a 8x in a bull case.
Investment thesis based on 3 pillars:
1. on-chain betting structural tailwinds.
2. B2B business model.
3. Attractive economics.
Link:
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The mere existence of
@Artemis__xyz
astounds me, and it's truly baffling that more people aren't taking advantage of it.
The untapped potential of the SS tool, where you can unleash your creativity using just spreadsheet knowledge and modeling skills, is so underrated.
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Check the ongoing vesting of $LDO holdings for participants in Lido's Seed or Treasury VC deals using
@ArkhamIntel
links.
Do they still have a financial interest in Lido´s success or they have dumped and moved on?
Link to the spreadsheet:
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Options Token 📈 Dashboard. It looks at different fundamentals such as TVL, Notional Trading Volume, and Daily Active Traders of $RBN, $DPX, $LYRA, $PREMIA, and $HEGIC.
As always, I´m open to feedback to improve it.
Link:
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My report, detailing my perspective on why I believe $ACX and $HOP have the most amount of upside in the Bridge narrative, will be released next week.
The analysis focuses on capital efficiency, and how that can turn into a long-term strategic advantage for both protocols.
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Willing to go to war to help internet magic tokens realize their fair value. My ideal pitch is smth <$200M FDV, with no CEX listings, and a market-share-based growth story.
I found ACX and RBN, and I may be cooking a third one 👀
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Who wants access to this? It´s a fully automated dataset for the bridge landscape, which includes bridge sector-specific metrics that I "created". All data and graphs can be used to extract various insights.
Note that there is a $10 paywall, which IMO is definitely worth it.
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Coinbase Dashboard. It estimates $COIN quarterly revenues by analyzing publicly-available blockchain data for spot trading volumes, staking, and USDC interest income.
The report will be released next week. Link to the SS:
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I did something similar to this a year ago! If anyone knows basic SQL or is in CS, I can walkthrough the logic and we can probably spin this out in 1 week.
DMs open!
I'm surprised someone hasn't built a single page website called Coinbase Revenue Estimate dot com where you take a trailing 2 quarter % take rate on volume (public) and make some assumptions about USDC interest and staking revenue (based on interest rates and ETH price).
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We doing a little bit of digging inside the Perps Landscape. Probably a lot of them add options to their product and their FDV gets a re-pricing.
If you have any "alpha", I have got DMs open.
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1)
@azuroprotocol
is becoming the infrastructure and liquidity layer for on-chain betting.
The remarkable growth of its first integration,
@bookmakerxyz
, a sports betting platform, is a testament to its success within just one year. 👇
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@ownthedoge
@layer3xyz
Here is my submission for the $DOG bounty for the best SVG logo. I drew it myself. Thanks for the opportunity!
@ownthedoge
@layer3xyz
#Doge
#TheDogeNFT
#Ownthedoge
$DOG
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@defi_mochi
@a16z
@dragonfly_xyz
@ambergroup_io
I created a map where you can see VC investors labeled wallets, feel free to check it out ser:
I have a mirror post explaining the process also:
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Token Dashboard for every thesis that I believe will be big this year:
a) Multichain thesis: 🌉Bridge Token Dashboard ✅
$ACX, $HOP, $SYN...
b) ETH POS thesis: 💧🥩LSD Token Dashboard ✍️
$LIDO, $RPL, $SWISE...
c) Protocol-Native Stablecoin thesis:_👀
$FRAX, $BEAN, $GHO, $crvUSD
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THALES looks interesting.
- Has been growing DAU and Vol per DAU that gets translated into Δ Earnings, as they take a % of every bet or option trade.
- For their sportsbetting product,
@OvertimeMarkets
, it has plans to introduce AA and gas subsidies to improve UX.
More on my FT.
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GambleFi Token🎲Dashboard. Still work in progress, but you can already look at different fundamental and token metrics of $RLB, $FUN, $KNK, $BETS...
They are very similar to DEX perps: revenue comes from users losing money.
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Thrilled to announce the release of my latest report, where I break down the Bridge Token Dashboard I created a month ago.
The analysis focuses on capital efficiency, and how that can turn into a long-term strategic advantage for $HOP and $ACX.
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Very raw analysis, but with $ATA going live (very) soon on Eigenlayer mainnet as an AVS...
doesn't it make it very mispriced to current publicly listed AVS', such as $ALT and $OMNI? 🧑🍳
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Finally managed to upload it to my Mirror. Enjoy! TLDR: I expect a 4.9x in the base case and 8x in the bull case for $BETS
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Had the opportunity of collaborating with my favorite newsletter in crypto. Best mix of numbers, storytelling and depth that you can find.
You guys should definitely give it a read.
On oracle extractable value and what it means for the industry.
Each time you do a transaction, there's a complex machinery at play in the background. Between a user signing a transaction and it reaching finality in a block are searchers that compete to have transactions…
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Pika Valuation: doing a reverse valuation methodology of
@PikaProtocol
, at current 44M FDV and $0.33M in annualized earnings, the market is estimating a huge growth in share perps gains.
Thread below 👇 with the analysis and model.
#PikaProtocol
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Bridge Token Analysis 🌉 Dashboard. It looks at different fundamental and market data metrics of $ACX, $HOP, $SYN, and $STG.
I believe we are living in a multi-chain world, and bridges bring cross-chain interoperability. It might be the next meta.
Link:
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I don´t think mindshare is on Aave yet, but study:
- sUSDe collateral integration ()
- Borrowing rates going to +30%.
- Reaching +200M in annualized revenues
- Trading at $2B FDV
I really think Aave is one of the most undervalued protocols out there.
Way too many positive catalysts and tailwinds to mention now, but will draft smth soon.
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“An efficient liquid crypto market requires presence of active fundamental investors” —
@Arthur_0x
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It´s been a few months since my first article about
@BeanstalkFarms
where I ate the pill and fell down the 🌱🕳️.
I´m back to try to unfold the protocol in "Feynman’s explain it to a 5-year-old principle".
Let´s first introduce some important terminology and concepts. 🧵👇
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I will spend the afternoon working on this. A fully automated spreadsheet that looks at Coinbase's current and future revenue drivers.
Also, I´m dedicating the comfy pepe space to introduce some graphs with an overview of potential L2 sequencer fees with BASE. Lets goah.
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I´ve been working on a model that estimates Coinbase's quarterly revenues utilizing publicly-available blockchain data.
I adapted the SS from
@MessariCrypto
´s last-month report by
@kunalgoel
and tweaked it so it updates automatically on a daily basis.
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Thrilled to announce the release of my latest report, where I break down the Coinbase Dashboard 🔵
Using on-chain available information and reasonable assumptions I estimate Q1´23 top-line revenue to be $606M. Check out the full report for details!
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Impressive volumes by
@Goal3_xyz
. One of the few on zksync ERA that appears to not be a scam 😀.
Also, I´m developing a market-wide database for GambleFi protocols, if you got any suggestions happy to hear feedback. Link:
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Woow, I'm speechless! Thank you so much,
@TaikiMaeda2
, for the incredible shoutout.
I've been following you since the Rotatoour Matic farming days, and it's an absolute honor to receive recognition from someone I admire so much.
DeFi Market Update - May 8, 2023
- On-chain Metrics amid memecoin mania
- EIP4844 Implications for $ARB and $OP
- $MUXLP as a $GLP Alternative w/ $MCB
- Chronos Finance Farm $CHR
- General Market Thoughts
I'll try to upload weekly from now on
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Transparency is key for on-chain casinos to gain investor trust, and
@BetSwirl
's Dune dashboard is leading the way.
It offers real-time metrics that provide valuable insights, like a rare 4x multiple when dividing FDV by the annualized last 3M revenue. You don´t see this often.
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@mrjasonchoi
I think it´s more about the fact that they allocated 7% to the airdrop while Arb did 11.6% and OP 19% (although it´s true they only gave 5% on their initial drop).
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SyncSwap cheat sheet. Despite being primarily used by airdrop farmers + its Loyalty program, $SYNC is doing really impressive daily volumes. Dexscreener API data (not yet on
@DefiLlama
/
@tokenterminal
) - alpha.
Check out the implied valuation:
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Messed around and did a Coinbase Valuation Model. I will write a report once I have time (starting university finals in 2 days), but you can already check it out here:
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gmacross, napkin calculations. Still an interesting r/r, given no CEX listings yet + a leader in the intents interop space.
Recommended listenings / reads:
Across: Solving Cross-Chain UX Through Intents
Presented by
@hal2001
of
@AcrossProtocol
Watch the full video below👇
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I´m preparing a small writing on AI Agents and TG Bots.
I believe they will drive the next wave of user growth in composability-focused protocols, especially within prediction layer platforms like
@azuroprotocol
,
@thalesmarket
, and
@Polymarket
.
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Summing up=
1. $1.2 - 1.5B predicted market cap (during the first week).
2. Initial circulating supply of 120-130M $OP.
🔴$OP= 10/12$
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A potential pick and shovel opportunity arises from the resurgence in TG bots and the entry of AI agents like
@autonolas
into prediction markets, leading to decentralized betting protocols.
To illustrate,
@TeamBookiebot
contributes on avg 20% of
@azuroprotocol
overall volumes.
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@KyleLDavies
This is just very weird. It actually feels like he is giving out a 12 word security phrase for a wallet or smth.
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Here you can see $WINR market data once the 3M hard cap of
@CamelotDEX
is reached. It will put them as the current winner (in terms of FDV) of the Arbitrum GambleFi casino narrative.
Link to the dashboard:
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Simplifying the complex: spent the weekend breaking down Lido's token allocation structure & excited to share my insights.
Bonus: I've included a handy LSD fundamental dashboard for you to explore!
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Thoughts? The FDV is <5M.
Also, Q2´23 figures are "quarternalized", so it´s an estimate, as we are mid-quarter.
I have a low FDV protocol with awesome fundamentals and in a vertical I’m particularly bullish in.
Doing the model + report after this week.
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Okay, so I´m opening up access to my DEX Perps spreadsheet tracker for my
@friendtech
holders.
Buy a share a provide an email on the chat that you want to use to get access to the Google Sheets. I also have one on bridges if interested.
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My report, detailing my perspective on why I believe $LDO will come out on top in the LSD narrative, will be released tonight or tomorrow.
It´s a winner takes all market and with Lido's strategic VC deals mix, it has all the ingredients for success.
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Bridge aggregators like
@BungeeExchange
are becoming increasingly important in the cross-chain messaging landscape.
Check what % of Across´ Total Volume gets rooted through Bungee.
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Uploaded to Google Sheets. I tried to label as many investor´s wallets as possible, but some of them were very cautious 🕵️.
I have yet to include
@ArkhamIntel
links for each so it´s easy to check if they are still holding their $LDO.
Here is the link:
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Azuro Valuation spreadsheet. It's designed to track KPIs of various GambleFi protocols to derive an "implied" valuation.
Q2'23 figures have been 'quarternalized,' providing an estimate based on their avg daily figures as we are mid-quarter. Link:
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Of Synapse´s 30.5M L24Hs volume, 86% of it (26.4M) has been generated by 10 addresses, which also seems to be going through CCTP and not by Synapse liquidity bridge or RFQ implementation.
Should this be labeled as Synapse´s volume or Circle´s?
@0xngmi
GM
@SynapseProtocol
🔥
The first phase of the plan is going great,(Best bridging )
1st place suits Synapse very well, 👏👏
This success is no surprise for Synapse team that worked hard during the bear season 👀🟣🟣
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The intents framework opens up the opportunity for MEV internalization and for it to be given back to users (probably the logic as to why it will be cheaper).
Orderflow is important and a cost-saving feature / revenue source. Higher.
Most interoperability solutions rely on message passing for cross-chain transfers. This is extremely difficult to do quickly, affordably and securely.
What if there was another way?
1/ Introducing Across V3 ✨
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Another approach to understanding the perps landscape is by segmenting the market into chains.
This enables analysis of the evolving market share of protocols within their supported chains, along with checking for overall perps volume growth in these chains.
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Given markets probably become a bit boring for the next weeks, would really recommend bookmarking and spending 10 minutes to read this piece on everything intents.
"I envision competing settlement protocols like SUAVE, Across, Anoma, and Khalani offering differentiated features…
ERC7683 is the latest attempt at resolving the cross-chain UX dilemma:
+ Why is "chain abstraction" so vital to solve in a rollup-centric world?
+ How does upgrading solver UX address chain abstraction, seemingly a UX skill-issue?
Read on
@viamirror
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I truly believe that on-chain GambleFi has the biggest potential.
The only thing left is trying to predict the winner as web3 takes the share of web2.5 gambling protocols.
There are two sectors in crypto that are still growing rapidly despite the slow market conditions.
Those who pay close attention and are willing to take risks now will be well rewarded in the future.
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I guess that for cross-chain domains,
@AcrossProtocol
and
@ConnextNetwork
might also fit.
I´m curious, what protocol by being "intent-centric" has been able to capture significant market share of another protocol that is not intent-centric.
It could justify that intents are not just a buzz word, but an explanation as to why there are tailwinds through better UX.
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Calculated the implied valuation of
@azuroprotocol
using "sticky" Volume, Fees, and Bankroll comps multiples.
I´m still bullish on the overall GambleFi narrative and think they can arise on top as the leading infrastructure layer. Check it out:
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Last week, I acquired this IVY. It's amazing that Forbes from my country adopted the style of
@andrewchg
for their list of Spain's most elegant individuals.
Love the art.
🗞️ Ya están aquí nuestras portadas del número de febrero, con la lista de Los 50 hombres y mujeres más elegantes de España. Consúltala completa en el link 👉
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Proto-dank sharding, aka EIP-4844, won´t impact L2 sequencer margins. This was EIP-4488 job, which appears to have been left out of the roadmap.
EIP-4844 is set to reduce L2 fees, which could only affect revenue positively by # of transactions going up exponentially.
1/ Arbitrum doing $100m+ in annualized revenue, which net 30-40% margins today (after calldata costs)
Will expand to 90-95% margins after eip-4844 / proto-danksharding
For perspective ETH is doing $3-5bn annualized fees
L2s on path to being incredibly profitable
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Why does the reported perps revenue from Rollbit´s dashboard show 0.24M, when the implied revenue -based on their 4-1.6bps range from their (also) reported volumes- is 1.16M or 0.46M?
Am I missing something here?
@thiccythot_
@SmokeyLisa_rb
@ThinkingUSD
@Razer_Rollbit
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Turning my Coinbase Dashboard into a Valuation Model 👀. I´m really high on caffeine right now.
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Synapse is running such an elaborative scheme to pump their bridge traction it´s honestly impressive (they were even able to get enough attention for
@0xngmi
to get Circle´s bridge numbers on DL, so that´s cool!).
Anyway, it´s ending soon as they are running out of $ARB.
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@dcfgod
@AcrossProtocol
Hey fren, it´s one of my works. Check the updated version.
Here is the link:
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So FDV actually matters? Shocker
I just realised Lido marketcap since launch in Jan '21 went 350x from $5m to $1.7b
But price is up 12% from its $1.75 listing price
Really puts things into perspective
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Let´s take a look:
a) $OP = 248,699 eligible addresses= 60% claimed during first day.
b) $ENS = 137,689 eligible addresses= 41% claimed during first day.
c) $PSP = 20,000 eligible addresses= 53% claimed during first day.
(Thanks to
@hildobby_
for the data)
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