Judge Holden
@the_judge1111
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Whatever exists in creation without my knowledge exists without my consent
Texas, USA
Joined April 2025
Those who have seen enough banker models can probably guess the mix of banks represented in OAIs team of training data model monkeys based on formatting alone
Wow! What an upgrade in taste Prompt: Create a workforce planning model: headcount, hiring plan, attrition, and budget impact. Include engineering, marketing, legal, and sales departments.
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11 years ago I worked on a very hairy exit below the stack Few guys demanding a larger payout. Layers of preference. One of the senior guys managed to collaborate via satellite phone abroad he was so fluent in capitalization. Got it done. I fear for our future leaders.
when we first created this investment banking modeling eval, my PE friends would say how GPT-4o couldn't even convert P&L screenshots into Excel. how far we have come... huge shoutout to the whole team on this amazing model!!! make sure to select 5.2-thinking or 5.2-pro when
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No one: Absolutely no one: Sean, CEO of a cool wallet company who hasn’t even downloaded Cursor:
monday .com is pre ai notion is feeling more and more pre ai dont be a pre ai saas you will be one shotted by a middle manager asking you to- "do it perfect and dont make mistakes" a trillion in saas market cap about to be chatted to zero
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This obviously has been true for all of human history, but social media and the never-ending panopticon of knowing we are on stage has amplified narcissism to never before seen levels. “Chat, am I chopped?” is the eternal question. Everything becomes understood through what it
If you want men to ask women out, you have to stop getting offended by the men who shoot their shot You're not upset at being asked out, you're just insulted that he thought he had a chance and you're making your own narcissism his problem
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YC is a terrific product That product is therefore in very high demand Alas when identify becomes ‘I am a YC / rejected YC founder’ you’re losing in the wrong game You are a founder No one owns or determines your destiny but you If you don’t get that its a red flag
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I for one welcome the chance for Netflix to finally produce a series about Warner’s mob-linked parking lots, funeral homes and bankrolls for blackjack math.
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The cohort of entrepreneurs that allow their identity to be shaped by YC is bizarre and sad to me Both those accepted, and rejected Obviously very good for YC though
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Every investor who had never heard for EquipmentShare until yesterday is going to start posting about them aren't they
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Coincidence? I think NOT!
Releasing an Uncapped pod tomorrow with @gradypb and @Alfred_Lin. By far the most detailed episode we've ever done about the craft of venture and I loved it.
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Polymarket rage baiting VCs
Jake Paul could be one of the best performing venture investors of the last 10 years: > Invested in Ramp Seed round in 2019, now valued at $32B. > Invested in Chronosphere seed round in 2019, acquired for $3.35B in November. > Invested in Anduril $8.48B series E in December
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4/ In categories where true kingmaking isn't possible, you have a warring states period where many are trying to grow power Eventually it consolidates around a market share leader (Salesforce) but not a Mongol Empire ruler
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3/ We could argue Ramp, despite not having obvious market dynamics to be kingmade forced it by conflicting out firms with their approach to capitalization This is kingmaking by coup vs. conquest in the market Not really kingmade though
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2/ Kingmaking is only possible in markets with winner-take-all potential where unit economics don’t work in short term so access & cost of capital creates a temporary moat for conquest Mostly marketplaces Best / obvious successes are Uber and Doordash Alas, many failures
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1/ Misunderstandings about this weeks buzzword; Kingmaking It is not kingmaking if you pile money into a company in the space after multiple firms already piled money into two other more mature & better companies You're just grasping for relevance in a red ocean...
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"Why do you work so hard?". It's very simple: The future pitched by those on the other side of the table is not compelling to me I believe a better future is possible
The co-founder of Kalshi says: " The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion."
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If you think anything can be vibe coded You are not a serious person You are telling on yourself that you haven't even bothered to try any of these tools yourself in depth
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Step a; start company Step b; procure a bunch of vibe coded tools Step c; insert punitive uptime SLA to contract Step d; profit
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That time of year where every firms marketing team decides the world needs their junior partners predictions for the next year
@DavidCahn6 Insightful, daring, bold predictions David!
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Remember You get the shareholders you deserve If they're telling you who they are Understand what that means for good and bad
The biggest fundraising lever: FOMO
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Alas, if you go and look at how they actually invest not what they ~~think~~ you wouldn't find consistency between the 2
i bet if you pick a vc fund and ask each partner what they think a great founder looks like, you'd get different answers from each person this is a good thing
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