I recently posted a new version of my paper 𝑷𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑷𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒖𝒓𝒆 𝒐𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑭𝒆𝒅 Link to paper: https://t.co/dQQoG0KbDf Abstract below:

Tune in all day tomorrow, October 31, for our conference on central bank independence in practice, featuring @LHSummers, @JohnHCochrane, Richard H. Clarida, Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Charles L. Evans, & more. Agenda & watch here:

Excited to be part of a @PIIE conference "Central bank independence in practice" on Friday Oct 31 Speakers include @JohnHCochrane, @LHSummers, & experts from academia, policy & finance Program attached below Register to attend virtually: https://t.co/Oe61V1APeN #econtwitter

The Highway A Halloween story if you would be so inclined to read: ——————————————— Though out my week and even today, people ask how I am doing and i reply “I’m good” or “I’m doing” well. 6:07pm ———— As my day winds down, I watch my favorite YouTuber or open up TikTok then

Re-posting the figure below showing the evolution of FOMC dissent under Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This can provide context for what we might see today in terms of dissent in the FOMC:

Thank you for the shout-out @arpitrage A recent update of my paper "Political Pressure on the Fed" can be found here: https://t.co/dQQoG0KbDf I also make the data available on my website: https://t.co/jGIrm28n7I

We just completed a comprehensive replication kit for our paper "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach" with Boragan Aruoba It allows you to carry out all NLP and machine learning steps of our method (in R) Access via dropbox: https://t.co/VJpPVqUnwN

Thank you to everyone who gave me very helpful feedback and comments that led to the improved version of the paper!

Hello everyone, to start the extra week, we have the Kickstarter trailer. This movie takes place in a futuristic time zone 100 years in the future, when an evil agent of the Egyptian government attempts to take over the world by using mummies to regain power, following Moses'

I make President-Fed interaction time series and estimated "political pressure shocks" available here https://t.co/jGIrm28n7I *NEW* I now also provide the underlying 𝑟𝑎𝑤 data that I hand-collected from the Presidential daily diaries (see screenshot)

The new version -also uses information from news coverage of political pressure -specifies political pressure as a latent variable that maps nonlinearly into President-Fed meetings -connects the results with theoretical models -presents new evidence for Trump & Biden & more!

The paper -presents historical data on personal interactions between US presidents & Fed officials (see chart) -uses a narrative approach to isolate variation in political pressure -finds that political pressure to lower rates increases prices but not economic activity

Today's dissent by Bowman and Waller in some historical context: -- two governor dissents never occurred with Powell as Chair -- two FOMC dissents have happened before (when Reserve Bank Presidents dissented) (source: https://t.co/Ee1DPiIjpP)

Meet Dawn Pillow, Cheyenne healer and daughter of the famous Chief Red Elk. BookQuest called her late night tryst with Thomas in a moonlit forest glade in Scoundrel in the Thick "the most sensual and unabashedly romantic encounter this reviewer has read in the past decade.”

Happy to see my research paper about the economic consequences of political pressure on the Fed mentioned by @Reuters @ReutersJamie Reuters story here: https://t.co/EDRiGHNijJ Link to the paper: https://t.co/dQQoG0KJsN Story mentions great research by @DavideRomelli as well!

Odds for the next Fed Chair on Polymarket Kevin Hasset 24% Scott Bessent 21% Kevin Warsh 19% (as of Wed June 11, 3:11pm EST) https://t.co/qeGzHPU9vk

"Fed Chair Powell met with Trump at the White House Thursday and told him rate decisions can't be political" https://t.co/O81ubWFrMy

Another very interesting @Macro_Musings episode this week!

Below is a figure showing how often U.S. Presidents and Fed Officials met in the past... (though my data doesn't show who asked for each meeting) @NickTimiraos See here for a full research paper on these meeting patterns: https://t.co/dQQoG0KbDf

This is an awesome paper by @td_econ that I feel like finance should be paying more attention to! https://t.co/ElP2wHvUPO

Polymarket is coming back to the US. 🇺🇸 Get on the waiting list to get early access to Polymarket's fully regulated U.S. trading platform:

Forthcoming in the AER: "The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending" by Juan Antolin-Diaz and Paolo Surico.

What a nice surprise - I received the AEJ-Macro Best Paper Award for my paper “Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations” The full paper can be found here: https://t.co/yzGGkxIa6N Thank you to everyone who helped me write it back in the day 😊

🇺🇸 250 years ago today, the Revolutionary War began at Lexington and Concord. I used to teach at Penn on the Political Economy of Early America, including the economics of the Revolution: https://t.co/AXNna5Fkm7 Still much to learn about the economic history of the 1760s–1790s.