Scott Tranter
@stranter
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Data Science @decisiondeskhq
Washington D.C.
Joined January 2008
RT @DecisionDeskHQ: We're on pace to cover over 50,000 elections this year from Mosquito Control Board in south Florida to Governors contes….
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Posted 2:20:08 PM. Software EngineerAbout UsDecision Desk HQ is a leading provider of real-time election results, race…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: To flip 5 seats, the Texas GOP plan creates 3 pickups by eliminating 1 Dem district across each of the DFW, Houston & S….
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: This week, we see mixed movement in polls, with approval, favorability, and right/wrong track moving in opposite direct….
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2 things . Great way to increase total market size but liquidity/turnover may be stickier?. This changes the dynamics and the quality of their prediction markets (not sure if net positive or negative) and will certainly create some asymmetric (arbitrageable?) pricing differences.
We're excited to announce Holding Rewards for the 2028 Presidential Election polymarkets. All you need to do is hold shares in any candidate(s) & you'll earn daily rewards — equivalent to a 4% annualized return. Learn more:.
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: This week, our polling averages indicate mixed movement in public opinion, with Trump’s approval rating dropping by mor….
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Good piece explaining how the demographics/math is viable for the GOP to gain up to 5 House seats in TX in any potential redistricting scenario. Still unclear if TX actually does it and the new lines clear legal challenges going into 2026 but if they are this and potentially.
Very possible for Texas Republicans to draw themselves what'd likely amount to 5 extra seats — we go through a hypothetical in our latest @SplitTicket_ piece today.
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: Fastest Election Results + @Kalshi Prediction Markets all in one place tonight!.
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: Tuesday night, New York City holds its Democratic primary for mayor. After incumbent Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of th….
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: With such a disparity in turnout between NYC boroughs, we'll likely see an impactful difference between early voting an….
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Some good supporting data for this theory from @kkondik .
centerforpolitics.org
Democrats are favored to flip the House, but they are already so close to a majority and the map is so sorted that a big numerical swing seems unlikely
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Putting aside the legal aspect of this, it is politically smart for the GOP to look at. The House is going to be closer than people think in 2026 given how many real toss-up districts there are. We're almost a year out so a lot can change but I could see the DDHQ forecast open.
NEW: Trump’s team is encouraging GOPers in Texas to examine how House district lines could be redrawn ahead of 2026. House Rs from Texas were called to an “emergency” meeting on Monday night in DC. @jdavidgoodman and me .
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Lots of public and private studies on this and the ROI is bad unless you have multi-cycle patience (and maybe multi-generational). The GOP was counting on Musk money for the midterms -- decent bet it won't be coming now which has implications for House and Senate margins.
Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle?.
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: Presidential approval jumps to its highest level since late March at 47.4%. Our other averages show improvement for De….
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For the last 20+ years the conventional wisdom had been that low turnout elections favored the GOP. The polling and ultimately voting patterns in 2024 showed us this dynamic was changing. 2026 will be the first mid-term with this new dynamic and will cause some issues with.
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Agreed. Also, over the next few cycles charts like this are going to be more common then the general public realizes, especially in US politics.
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: This week's polling average update is a bit more disorganized than we've been accustomed to. Presidential approval and….
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: Presidential approval ratings have climbed for three straight weeks in our averages, continuing to signal a positive sh….
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: This week's view of public sentiment offers the Trump administration an inflection point. The weekly change in our poll….
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: Crosstab averages for select subgroups are now available when viewing our Presidential Approval Polling Average. Today….
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RT @DecisionDeskHQ: Our polling averages over the last seven days show a continued downward trend in public sentiment for the administratio….
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