Simon Cox
@s1moncox
Followers
6K
Following
9K
Media
913
Statuses
4K
Journalist at The Economist. Interested in emerging economies, especially China. Opinions may be my own; they certainly aren't my employer's. Likes=bookmarks
Hong Kong
Joined May 2013
In 2009 Robert Lucas wrote a guest column for us defending economics from @TheEconomist, followed by a blog roundtable including posts by @tylercowen, @delong, @MarkusEconomist et al. Links in the thread below. https://t.co/aa02dpegYG
economist.com
In a guest article, Robert Lucas, the John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, rebuts criticisms that the financial crisis represents a failure of...
2
24
63
In our Drum Tower newsletter a few weeks ago, I said it was kind of remarkable that China even published its alarming youth unemployment figures... https://t.co/ZS2CGYnGHY
0
0
2
Post by Andrew Smithers to the 2009 Lucas roundtable
economist.com
Economics can explain much about finance without it
0
0
0
Post about a post by Richard Posner on the 2009 Lucas roundtable
economist.com
Some didn't believe in bubbles at all
1
0
0
Post by Robert Lucas to the 2009 Lucas roundtable
economist.com
Robert Lucas' actual views on Ben Bernanke
1
0
0
Post by @MarkThoma to the 2009 Lucas roundtable
economist.com
Economics' failure one of sociology within the field
1
0
0
Post by @tylercowen to the 2009 Lucas roundtable
economist.com
Economists must acknowledge some key errors
1
0
0
Post by @MarkusEconomist to the 2009 Lucas roundtable
economist.com
Models must come to resemble the real world
1
0
0
Post by @delong to the 2009 Lucas roundtable
economist.com
Have Robert Lucas' views shifted in recent months?
2
3
6
@TheEconomist @tylercowen @delong @MarkusEconomist Lucas roundtable introduction https://t.co/dNPm6rIwdv
economist.com
The crisis for economics reconsidered
1
1
3
9. On the perils of being a colourblind Treasury Secretary (Full transcript here: https://t.co/vcC44UCbg0)
1
2
14
This graph was published in 2018 based on the Brookings poverty clock model. The latest poverty clock estimate for India in 2022 is 51m. India's most recent official poverty count is from 2011/12! https://t.co/fIBOFjTZhX
https://t.co/jwsEDHwTxh
worldpoverty.io
Explore poverty data by age, gender, and region for every country in the world until 2030
This is just an incredible graph. India is making absolutely amazing strides against poverty. (ht @scienceisstrat1)
0
0
3
In Western political commentary, "pragmatism" denotes "the opposite of whatever it is Xi Jinping has been doing lately."--@andrewbatson
https://t.co/GMDHvZ46e6
andrewbatson.com
“Pragmatism” has become an inescapable piece of vocabulary in recent Western political commentary on China, the preferred term to indicate the opposite of whatever it is Xi Jinping has …
0
0
2
By that test, the deficit target is a slightly better guide to China’s nominal GDP growth in my opinion. It often understates it. But by less than the growth & CPI target overstates it.
0
0
1
One way to evaluate the two methods is to compare their answers with actual nominal GDP growth in the past. (That is a test of how well the guesstimates matched the target, and how well the authorities met their target.)
1
0
0
Which is better? The CPI target is a ceiling and the wrong measure of inflation. However, the deficit target is rounded off. If 3% of GDP is actually 2.95% it makes a surprisingly big difference.
1
0
0
Here are two ways to guesstimate China’s target for nominal GDP growth (ie, growth before adjusting for inflation) 1) Combine the growth target (5%) & consumer-price inflation target (3%)=8.15% 2) Infer it from the budget-deficit target (3%). That implies nominal growth of 6.9%
2
0
1
My working: Military spending in 2022 was 1.449963trn. GDP in 2022 was 121.0207trn. Military spending in 2023 is budgeted to be 1.5537trn. There is no formal target for nominal GDP in 2023. But the deficit target implies it will be 3.88/0.03=129.333trn.
1
1
8
I estimate that China's military spending will increase from 1.198% of GDP in 2022 to 1.201% of GDP in 2023.
5
10
82