Robert Marsiglio
@rob_siglio
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Dad. Husband. Blue Jays. Sports. Jokes. GTA Real Estate. Educational Charts. RE Threads🧵 | Realtor - Keller Williams Referred Urban Realty, Brokerage #TORE
Durham Region
Joined July 2009
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If you like the graphs I post on Twitter and want to watch me talk about them, you can do that here:
7
6
33
More and more people enter the "need to sell my home" category every day.
The problem is that many people in this group are in denial about what their home is worth in today's market.
IMO, denial is why prices have stayed relatively stable lately. This can change quickly.
1/4
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We've arrived.
GTA months of inventory has eclipsed five.
According to TRREB stats, the last time MOI was north of five was February 2009.
#TORE
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Immigrant Influence on GTA Home Prices:
Before I start this thread, I acknowledge that I am a couple generations removed from immigrants. My family moved to Canada in the 60s. I don't know what it's like to move to a new country, establish a new life, or try to buy a home.
1/9
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One week after putting a renter into their first place.
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The reality is that people are moving here for a better life, but as Ron says "we are tricking newcomers who arrive to find unmanageable shelter prices & a crazy cost of living."
An economy so dependent on immigration better work on a solution to this problem quickly.
9/9
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PSA for anybody buying a 20-year-old home:
If the home hasn't been renovated/updated since it was built, you're going to have to replace everything in the next few years.
Roof. Windows. HVAC. Everything.
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Please give me the confidence of the condo owner that lists their 1+1 bedroom unit for $50,000 more than the two bedroom unit that's been sitting on the market for two months.
#TORE
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I'm seeing a lot of celebration about the headline inflation number.
The fact is, the cost of living is still very expensive in the GTA/Ontario/Canada.
A lower inflation print doesn't mean things are getting cheaper. They're getting more expensive at a slower rate.
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23
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It's hard to overstate how slow this April has been in GTA real estate.
First, absolute sales.
Freehold sales are the slowest they've been since at least 2008 if we throw out 2020.
Condos aren't quite as slow as 2009, but population has ⬆️ 19% since then!
1/2
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March 2001 is the last time that the Bank of Canada's overnight rate was at 5%.
Here is what detached home prices looked like in the GTA back then versus now.
I also included a comparison of median household income and CPI Median over that time.
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I added this bathroom to one of my rental properties.
I was able to take the rent up from $700 to $1475 per month. The tenant moved out, but I rented it quickly at the higher amount.
This is the way you make more cash as a landlord AND make your tenants' lives better.
Win win.
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You're right, homeownership isn't for everyone, but at the rate we are going, it won't be for ANYONE.
@ronmortgageguy
had a good thread about immigration and the need for housing supply. You should read it.
8/9
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This is not a repost.
This is an update including June 6, the busiest new listing day of the year by 177.
#TORE
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GTA months of inventory is taking off in early 2023.
Currently at 5.06 vs 3.21 just a few weeks ago.
1/4
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As a seller, the first loss that you accept will be your best loss. It's hard to catch up when you're chasing the market downwards.
If you're in the "need to sell my home" camp, I hope that this thread can help you make the decision that is best for you.
4/4
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It's only the seventh day all year that Toronto has seen sun.
Make sure you make the most of it!
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So, possibly not the last as well?
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As of writing this thread, the median sale price for a property like that in the GTA is just over $1 MM. 10 years ago, it was $442.3k.
That's a 140% increase in ten years. That doesn't strike me as sustainable no matter who is buying the homes.
5/9
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The 4,642 sales reported by TRREB in September 2023 are the fewest for a September going back to 1999 when there were 4,636 sales reported.
The population of the GTA in 1999 was 4.521 million.
The population of the GTA in 2023 is 6.372 million.
7
22
111
Selling the Dream:
The importance of owning your own home is a narrative that we are exposed to at an early age in Canada.
You grew up hearing stories from your parents about how they stretched for their first house. They ate lots of pasta and potatoes to make it work.
1/8
13
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Rate cuts = 🚀🚀🚀
🚀🚀🚀 = new listings hitting MLS
June 5 was the busiest Wednesday in terms of new listings (964) in the GTA in 2024.
June 6 has seen 863 new listings hit the market as of this tweet. Previous high in 2024 is 970.
#TORE
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I've said this before and I will say it again. If Canada doesn't figure its shit out, the future looks pretty bleak around here.
9/9
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All it takes is one bank sale or one home owner to capitulate. Once that happens, an entirely new market value is set for that street, that neighbourhood, and eventually, that city.
Banks and lenders will be quick to tighten up their purse strings.
3/4
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Talking about an increase in housing inventory seems to be hitting a nerve with some people on this platform. The main response I'm getting is "It's seasonal. Inventory always builds at this time of year."
I wanted to touch on this today as I share some weekly numbers. 🧵
1/11
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Realtor with the ability to change any economic news into a "now is the best time to buy" narrative
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People are listing, but nobody is buying!
That's a bit of a stretch, but the trend of new listings growing week-over-week and sales falling off is continuing through June.
Here's a look at new listings on a weekly basis across the GTA.
3,580 is the most we have seen YTD.
1/4
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Buyer Client: What do you think this home is worth?
Buyer Agent: It doesn't matter. The seller isn't going to accept that number.
#TORE
in a nutshell 😂
11
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93
Half way through May and GTA condos are on track to break more records.
#TORE
There have been more new condo listings through 14 days of May than any other May going back to 2008.
1/3
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25,000 active listings across the GTA by the end of June is all but guaranteed. The real question is how close do we get to 26,000?
#TORE
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The sentiment that I hear more and more often is we "will look elsewhere for homes". Out of the GTA. Out of Ontario. Out of Canada.
And that sentiment comes from more than just the immigrant families that I speak with. It comes from friends and family members as well.
6/9
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"We have decided to move back to India for good." 🧵
Out of the blue one day this April, I got a call. It was a number I didn't recognize. A New Jersey area code.
I decided to answer. At the very least, I could have a little fun with whoever this scam caller was.
1/9
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Remember when Angel Hernandez cried about not getting playoff games? GTFOH
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Pent up demand? Where is it?
Rate cuts coincided with a big uptick in new listings, but an underwhelming jump in showings booked through BrokerBay.
#TORE
1/3
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Prices exploded on the way up because buyers (fueled by cheap debt) were paying $10,000s more than the most recent comps.
Banks and lenders saw no issue giving loans based on what the market was doing.
On the way down, once market acceptance hits, the opposite happens.
2/4
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There are currently 24,761 active listings across the GTA on the Toronto MLS.
526 of them (2.12%) contain the word motivated in the broker remarks.
That feels about right.
#TORE
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Something strange is happening in GTA Real Estate.
Every year, June seems to be the month where sales and new listings start to slow down for the summer. On average, new listings hit the brakes much harder than sales.
Take a look at what is happening this year. 👇👇
#TORE
1/7
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I see the shaming and pressure tactics out there, and it puts a pit in my stomach every single time.
When & IF the time is right, you'll achieve your goal of homeownership.
Until then, try to take care of YOU!
That's way more important than owning a home will ever be.
8/8
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"Okay, Mr. and Mrs. First-Time Home Buyer. The last step is just verifying your income!"
The verification:
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Monday months of
#TORE
housing inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 2.60 (🔼0.15 or 5.98%)
TO Condo: 4.80 (🔼0.37 or 8.45%)
Durham: 2.40 (🔼0.21 or 9.98%)
York: 3.71 (🔼0.18 or 5.26%)
Peel: 3.61 (🔼0.25 or 7.31%)
Halton: 2.87 (🔼0.21 or 8.12%)
1/7
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It looks like everybody is leaving Ontario.
Bullish for RE somehow!
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Mentions of "power of sale" or "mortgage" in a seller's name on Toronto MLS are up 56% since March 18.
#TORE
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If you throw out 2021 and 2022, February 2024 has been the busiest February from a new listings perspective in the GTA since 2016.
Is this the start of the inventory spike? 🧵
#TORE
1/6
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Two things I would love to see implemented by
@TheReal_TRREB
in 2024:
1. Mandatory offer night disclosure to the public. It is as simple as adding a field to the MLS listing.
2. Mandatory above and below grade square footage of all homes listed on the MLS.
Thoughts?
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To get back to "balance," home prices have to come down, or incomes have to skyrocket.
Only one of those is an option if we're going to get inflation under control.
The ratios of avg. home price to avg. disposable income in 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇦
1975-2005: The ratio ranged from 6 to 9 in 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇦
Post-2006: 🇨🇦 ratio soared above 9, reaching 14 times of income! Why?
Maybe🤔:
#BoC
's too many rate cuts in 2008, while 🇨🇦 home prices didn't crash unlike U.S.
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Active housing inventory continues to 🚀 across the GTA.
From my Monday report to today, we have seen a 4.2% increase in active listings while the rate of sales has ticked up by 3.3%.
That has bumped months of inventory up slightly, but is MOI actually inflated right now?
1/5
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Side gigs are key in this economy.
I started a deck company. We do installations and repairs.
This is one we installed recently.
I'm hoping the repair division gets a crack at it.
#sidehustles
10
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Hey York Region!
Welcome to the "broke 2023 peak active listings" club!
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"It's just the 2 of us and our 2 kids. We'd like a 3 bed, 2 bath home, somewhere in the GTA. Something that's move-in ready."
Do you know what it's like to tell someone that $700k isn't a realistic budget to achieve that goal?
But that's the conversation we had to have.
4/9
3
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Monday Months of
#TORE
Inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.01 (🔼0.68 or 20.54%)
TO Condo: 4.44 (🔼0.57 or 14.71%)
Durham: 2.39 (🔼0.21 or 9.59%)
York: 3.88 (🔼0.41 or 11.88%)
Peel: 4.08 (🔼0.39 or 10.59%)
Halton: 3.67 (🔼0.59 or 19.05%)
1/5
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I can already hear the Twitter trolls lining up.
"Buy something smaller."
"Maybe they should rent."
"Move somewhere else, then."
"Suck it up and make more sacrifices."
"I've owned my home for years and I had to work hard to do it. Homeownership isn't for everyone."
7/9
5
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65
Again, I acknowledge that this is only one anecdote. Everybody experiences things differently.
For every "A" out there, there may very well be somebody who sees the value in staying in Canada.
But it's this last message where he summed things up beautifully:
8/9
8
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Monday Months of Inventory
#TORE
🧵
(change from last week)
Months of Inventory
TO Freehold: 1.78 (⬆️0.03 or 1.71%)
TO Condo: 2.56 (⬆️0.16 or 6.67%)
Durham: 1.66 (⬆️0.11 or 6.41%)
York: 2.14 (⬆️0.25 or 13.23%)
Peel: 1.99 (⬆️0.14 or 7.57%)
1/5
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Monday months of
#TORE
housing inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 3.96 (⬆️0.30 or 8.25%)
TO Condo: 6.93 (⬆️0.28 or 4.24%)
Durham: 3.64 (⬆️0.41 or 12.74%)
York: 5.59 (⬆️0.56 or 11.02%)
Peel: 5.39 (⬆️0.53 or 10.84%)
Halton: 4.92 (⬆️0.49 or 11.12%)
1/7
4
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As a home seller, if you feel like you're being constantly lowballed, you're probably not.
#TORE
2
6
61
Minimum bids should be mandatory for real estate offer nights.
Stop wasting everybody's time.
#TORE
18
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61
Are you currently house hunting and finding it very difficult?
Here's a thought for you. MAYBE YOU SHOULD HAVE BOUGHT 20 YEARS AGO!!
And I don't wanna hear about how you were only five years old 20 years ago.
This generation is so soft!
#TORE
4
3
62
My first Monday
#TORE
Months of Inventory on X 🧵
(change from last week)
MOI
TO Free: 2.44 (🔼0.17 or 7.26%)
TO Condo: 3.49 (🔼0.25 or 7.50%)
Durham: 2.00 (🔼0.07 or 3.58%)
York: 3.06 (🔼0.16 or 5.20%)
Peel: 3.17 (🔼0.38 or 13.82%)
Halton: 2.54 (🔼0.29 or 12.56%)
1/4
3
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We're seeing more and more new listings hit the market each week.
Reported sales? Pretty flat.
#TORE
10
6
61
GTA freehold and condo markets have both crossed into technical buyer's market territory.
#TORE
4
11
60
Monday Months of Inventory
#TORE
🧵
(change from last week)
Months of Inventory
TO Freehold: 1.75 (⬆️0.15 or 9.38%)
TO Condo: 2.40 (⬆️0.23 or 10.59%)
Durham: 1.55 (⬆️0.14 or 9.93%)
York: 1.89 (⬆️0.18 or 10.53%)
Peel: 1.85 (⬆️0.21 or 12.80%)
1/6
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Monday Months of
#TORE
Inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 3.58 (⬆️0.17 or 4.87%)
TO Condo: 5.90 (⬆️ 0.20 or 3.51%)
Durham: 3.62 (⬆️0.25 or 7.37%)
York: 4.87 (🔻0.11 or 2.20%)
Peel: 4.88 (⬆️0.23 or 4.95%)
Halton: 5.16 (⬆️0.25 or 5.20%)
1/6
3
8
58
Monday months of
#TORE
housing inventory. 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.05 (⬆️0.40 or 11.04%)
TO Condo: 7.21 (⬆️0.65 or 9.90%)
Durham: 3.86 (⬆️0.36 or 10.30%)
York: 5.91 (⬆️0.47 or 8.60%)
Peel: 5.50 (⬆️0.32 or 6.25%)
Halton: 5.26 (⬆️0.41 or 8.50%)
1/9
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In 2023, the market was getting tighter.
In 2024, it's not.
April numbers for 2023 and 2024 are through 17 full days of activity.
#TORE
5
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Today marks TRREB dues renewal day, or as I like to call it "Pay up or peace out" day.
It's going to be very interesting to see how the number of Realtors in the GTA changes after today.
12
5
56
Fewer and fewer home showings are occurring each week.
Since March 3, new listings are trending upward on a weekly basis while the number of showings booked through Broker Bay continues to fall off.
#TORE
8
5
57
Monday Months of
#TORE
Inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.05 (🔼0.04 or 1.07%)
TO Condo: 5.11 (🔼0.67 or 15.10%)*
Durham: 2.63 (🔼0.24 or 10.31%)
York: 4.20 (🔼0.32 or 8.12%)
Peel: 4.21 (🔼0.13 or 3.12%)*
Halton: 4.29 (🔼0.62 or 16.85%) 👀
* > Jan '23 peak
1/5
6
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The biggest build up of housing inventory (and maybe stress?) is happening at the lower price points.
Are these end users or investors/speculators trying to sell?
Chart 1 - Freehold MOI under $2 million
Chart 2 - Freehold MOI over $2 million
Chart 3 - Condo MOI
#TORE
7
10
55
@longleysunsport
They should have let fans destroy the place after that performance on Saturday. May have saved on some demo costs... 😉
0
0
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TRREB Market Watch Context 🧵
The numbers are in, and here is the context.
STATEMENT - Reported sales are up 37.0% YoY
CONTEXT - Reported sales in Jan '23 were the lowest since Jan '09. The number of sales reported in Jan '24 ranks 10th going back to Jan '09.
#TORE
1/6
4
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52
Bond yields are quickly replacing GTA home prices as the thing that only goes up...
1
0
51
Monday Months of
#TORE
Housing Inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 3.41 (⬆️0.15 or 4.67%)
TO Condo: 5.70 (⬆️ 0.12 or 2.15%)
Durham: 3.37 (⬆��0.15 or 4.60%)
York: 4.98 (⬆️0.31 or 6.49%)
Peel: 4.65 (⬆️0.09 or 1.94%)
Halton: 4.91 (⬆️0.28 or 5.98%)
1/4
4
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52
Anybody seen this guy out there helping today? Or is it too far out from an election?
#ONStorm
1
4
52
Patience in the face of FOMO:
Last night, I helped a couple secure a home after almost a year and a half of searching.
The market now is VASTLY different from the market when we started our search.
#ToRe
1/7
9
1
50
@ManyBeenRinsed
Here is the GTA for you, Woes.
Seeing about 560 per day (incl weekend and long weekend). Weekdays hovering 800-850.
9
8
50
Remember how slow the real estate market was in April 2020 in the early days of COVID?
This April was slower (relative to new listings).
#TORE
8
13
52
In a lot of markets, this is EXACTLY the way buyers should be acting.
Get your terms.
Buyers are being very cautious. Just this week had 2 offers on 2 of my listings, sellers both made the a counter offer, both buyers walked after the first counter.
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3
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52
Monday months of
#TORE
housing inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 2.47 (⬆️0.15 or 6.62%)
TO Condo: 4.25 (⬆️0.28 or 7.20%)
Durham: 2.08 (⬆️0.04 or 2.06%)
York: 3.39 (⬆️0.31 or 10.34%)
Peel: 3.13 (⬆️0.16 or 5.34%)
Halton: 2.54 (⬆️0.16 or 6.93%)
1/6
5
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52
Today is CREA stats day, so you're hearing a lot about May numbers.
Bottom line, May numbers are not what you should be paying attention to if you're making a decision about real estate NOW.
Here is what is going on with weekly sales and listings in the GTA. 👇👇
#TORE
1/4
4
10
50
Is this the end of the
#ToRE
Spring price bump?
Based on the weekly median sale price of a freehold resale property, there are some signs that we have peaked when looking at the market as a whole.
1/3
3
6
50
I bought new golf clubs seven years ago. The deal was too good to pass up. I sold my old clubs a week later.
I hate my new clubs, but I bought them because I could afford them. Now I'm stuck with them.
Now imagine this with a house instead of golf clubs.
13
0
48
GTA WEEKLY HOME SALE PRICES 🧵
You got a sneak peak of this in my latest YouTube video, but here are the charts!
Starting with freehold properties. The median price trend is following the weekly sales trend downwards. Prices and sales peaked 5-7 weeks ago.
1/5
3
6
48
Looking to target motivated home sellers in the GTA?
There are currently 215 freehold properties and 179 condos with the word "motivated" in the Brokerage Remarks across Toronto, Durham, York, Peel and Halton.
#TORE
10
10
48
Rates have been cut three times in 2024.
Here is how new listings across the GTA responded the day after each rate cut.
#TORE
7
5
49
Since June 1, 2024, there have been:
7,955 home sales reported in the GTA
10,723 listings terminated in the GTA
#TORE
6
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