I am on bsky at https://t.co/lnaBtNlCGH The site is still developing but it's already proven to be quite useful and a lot less of the weird/terrifying content on there

Such a great paper! Francis, David C., and @rmkubinec. 2025. ‘Beyond Political Connections: A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-Level Political Influence in 41 Countries’. @PSRMJournal

If you want to follow along with my future writing/reporting, subscribe to my Substack! https://t.co/ligdreuofj

Honored to have been awarded "Best Impact by a New Journalist" by the @ACJRnetwork. Here are a few of my favorite stories I've written during an eventful year and a half at @Blockworks_:

Excited to contribute to this symposium on the Politics of Time in MENA! #MENA #ArabSpring Find full piece here: https://t.co/62aTbY16J8 #APSAMENA 🧵

We have a new Ph.D. candidate in the house! Congratulations to Greg Nelson, who successfully defended his dissertation proposal this week! His work on women's rights policies in authoritarian regimes is 🔥

Hot off the presses! The new issue of American Politics Research features an article by Dr. Jessica Schoenherr and @MilesArmaly! Curious about how judicial friendship affects people's perceptions of the Supreme Court? Keep reading! (it's open access!) https://t.co/RijpfWaXEe

As Syria ponders a democratic future: 5 lessons from the Arab Spring

As Syria ponders a democratic future: 5 lessons from the Arab Spring

https://t.co/LkWRwYgoP5

Not much happening here, but head over to the other place for ideas on WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES Link👇

Hot off the presses from Professor @rmkubinec!

who's gonna tell him how inflation works

Or, in other words, knowing Elon was *enthusiastic* shouldn't change our prior opinion about whether the salute was in fact a Nazi salute. It's mainly a red herring to confuse the listener.

It comes down to Pr(Salute = Nazi), and if it looks like a Nazi salute, then even if he was enthusiastic, that doesn't take away from the evidentiary grounds on which to say it was a Nazi salute. BECAUSE, if he was going to give a Nazi salute, he would be enthusiastic as well.

1) Pr(Salute = Nazi) - VERY HIGH - the Germans say it was a Nazi salute 2) Pr(Enthusiasm | Salute = Nazi) - VERY HIGH - yep if he was going to do a Nazi salute, he'd be enthusiastic 🙄 3) Pr(Enthusiasm) - Sure, in general people are enthusiastic at inaugurations. SO...

Ok sure let's do some Bayesian Hitman logic as to whether Elon made a Nazi salute given his "enthusiasm": Pr(Salute = Nazi | Enthusiasm) = [ Pr(Salute = Nazi) * Pr(Enthusiasm | Salute = Nazi) ] / Pr(Enthusiasm) THEN we estimate the terms: 👇 #science #rstats

Link:

My latest in @ConversationUS: What lessons does political science have for rebuilding Syria? I draw 5 lessons from a diverse scholarship on Islamists, corruption, democracy, militaries, and bureaucracies. And NO mention of Trump in the article 😁. (link below)👇

🚨 Deadline Extended! 🚨 The Political Science Graduate Symposium at USC has extended the submission deadline for American Politics, Public Policy/Admin, and Theory to January 15, 2025! Submit your abstract now:  https://t.co/ZHGTLwEaA3 Let’s make this an event to remember!

those effects ain't random, bro