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Rachel Ziemba Profile
Rachel Ziemba

@reziemba

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Macro geopol esp EM @horizonengage @cnasdc teaching @nyucga. Obsessed by energy, sanctions, sovereign wealth, debt, trade 🇨🇦 🇺🇸🍷 econ

NYC/YVR
Joined January 2009
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
3 days
👇
@gbrew24
Gregory Brew
3 days
It's a boring explanation but China might simply be taking advantage of low prices, building out and filling inventories with crude in order to provide a larger cushion if/when prices spike back up.
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
3 days
Latest example of US incremental, decentralized sovereign investment run by different govt departments. Here a preference for -converting debt to equity or instruments that convert to equity. - projects that produce in US not just reduce China
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
3 days
Reposting with correct details. More USG equity investment in minerals, this time a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals and up to 7.5% potential further stake via warrants. Another Canadian headquartered co with mining interests in US- Alaska this time. https://t.co/V8YxPdkTtA
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finance.yahoo.com
In an announcement Monday, President Donald Trump said the White House is reversing a Biden-era decision to reject Ambler Road, a project to help access vast critical mineral deposits in Alaska’s...
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
3 days
Latest example of US incremental, decentralized sovereign investment run by different govt departments. Here a preference for -converting debt to equity or instruments that convert to equity. - projects that produce in US not just reduce China nodes.
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
3 days
Challenge with saying that full impact of trump tariffs will hit next year is that it depends how they change next year also.
@FirstSquawk
First Squawk
3 days
WTO SAYS ‘FULL IMPACT’ OF TRUMP TARIFFS MAY HIT NEXT YEAR
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
3 days
Good point on LNG fundamentals and tankers
@ira_joseph
Ira Joseph
4 days
The number of LNG tankers on the water may be up this year, but the amount of LNG in them is lagging considerably. Plenty of capacity out there waiting for new LNG trains to produce, which is keeping the lid on day rates at relatively low levels. @ColumbiaUEnergy #ONGT
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
3 days
Gold’s surge has impact on mining revenues, and external balances. Here Australian revenue in focus, but Canadian earnings also up even if oil and gas still larger.
@SStapczynski
Stephen Stapczynski
3 days
Gold becomes more valuable to Australia than LNG 🇦🇺❤️🥇 📈 Revenues from gold will jump to A$60 billion in 2025-26 amid a record-breaking surge in prices 📉 LNG prices, meanwhile, have softened from the highs of the energy crisis in 2022. Australia is a top LNG exporter
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
3 days
Tracking current and historical commodity trade and infrastructure on the Rhone, including wind power using the mistral at top of Rhone hills, large hydro and reminder of historic copper wealth- these used in wine industry. Watch for more wine econ stack commentary soon
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
4 days
Good questions from @Brad_Setser about Argentina bailout and signals from Bessent there may be more, connects to broader q about how USG will support friendly countries abroad, which are relatively new ones. Are Americans comfy with such deals?
@Brad_Setser
Brad Setser
6 days
A couple of problems with "similar terms"? a) Who else would get "unconditional support" b) Where would the ESF get the money? It only has $22b in liquid dollars, and $20b seem pledged to Argentina ... 2/3 https://t.co/Kazr5MBYVH
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
8 days
Its notable the administration is now looking for deals with industries/companies. Perhaps they think its easier than trade deals and they have more direct leverage? Tho other policies including tariffs may complicate. Either way expect more such swaps
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reuters.com
Eli Lilly was asked to produce more insulin; Pfizer to produce more of its top-selling cancer drug Ibrance and its cholesterol drug Lipitor; and London-based AstraZeneca to consider a new headquart...
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
8 days
There has already been a lot of adjustment of container ships calling at US ports ahead of these fees (and in adjustment to tariff distortions). Larger maritime groups even with some China group have more flexibility to swap ships. Many energy related exemptions still
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
8 days
China adjusting maritime regulations in ways that could involve mirroring of soon to be implemented US port fees. While US does not build many vessels, more being being flagged in US or non-China to mitigate fees. More fragmentation of shipping ahead?
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freightwaves.com
China sets new port fees, could bar U.S. ships in retaliation for charges on Chinese shipping set to take effect in October.
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@GulfIntlForum
Gulf Int'l Forum
9 days
Join us on Oct. 14 for our Seventh Annual Conference for our panel "Innovation at the Core: Tech and Investments Shaping GCC Futures Amid Regional Transformations," organized with @ME_Council. Featuring H.H. Princess Noura bint Turki Al Saud, @TarikYousef, @ProfessorKaren, and
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
9 days
New US sanctions on Iran, the first post snapback, focuses on ballistic missile program and other military procurement but does include actors based in Germany and Portugal and several in China. No broad economy or oil market links evident. https://t.co/3GBeQprRej
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home.treasury.gov
Today’s Action Follows the September 27, 2025, Snapback of Previously Lifted United Nations Security Council Resolutions on IranWASHINGTON — Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of...
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
9 days
I was wondering when Russia would start to import oil products, it seems that time is now.
@delfoo
Stanimir Dobrev
9 days
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak proposed to eliminate the import duties on gasoline from China, South Korea and Singapore. This will mean certain state oil companies will be able to import gasoline through the Russian Far East. https://t.co/QZQ178Bilw
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
9 days
USG strategic stockpile demand for antimony.
@AndreaHotter
Andrea Hotter
10 days
US Antimony Corp gets its 1st delivery order as part of its Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity sole-source contract with the US Defense Logistics Agency, it says. Order is @$10 million purchase of 315,000 lbs of #antimony metal ingots for the National Defense Stockpile
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
9 days
GM already is major investor in Thacker Pass given interest in US based lithium supply chain. This is also first new USG direct financial support for lithium post the wind-down of IRA related support for EVs.
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
9 days
Preference for equity is generally pushing for conversion of loans to equity (and that new capital is equity) which likely brings more operational influence and more potential upside. Raises q about how much new capital, and what exits could look like.
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@reziemba
Rachel Ziemba
9 days
USG -via DOE takes stake in vancouver listed Lithium Americas to support iThacker Pass Lithium project in Nevada (plus direct stake in TP project). Shows USG preference for equity vs debt/loan exposure, plus push for GM to commit offtake agreement https://t.co/LiUbbzB3ok
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reuters.com
The U.S. Department of Energy has taken a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and a separate 5% stake in the company's Thacker Pass joint venture with General Motors that is set to be the largest lithium...
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