Most tariff levels similar to those from April 2 or a little lower, but there are now references to trans-shipment even if neither local content rules or the tariff level are defined. Plus 232 tariffs and goods with exemptions for future potential tariffs mean compliance complex.

A few quick thoughts on today’s tariff letters which are still dribbling out. Such bullying letters not a great way to do policy, little progress seems to be made and the fact all tariffs subject to change up or down doesnt bring much clarity, .

Would be very odd if Myanmar, a country on which US still has extensive sanctions following the 2021 coup would be compelled to buy military equipment. Another example of policy objectives not lining up.

Overall if implemented in a few weeks, this would significantly increase tariffs US buyers pay, and raise the question if suppliers will absorb the cost. So far foreign sellers have been passing costs on.

Also notable in the letter is a pledge to expedite approvals for US production, which has not always been the case. USG push to produce in the US to avoid tariffs continues to be stymied by: need to move entire supply chain, the lack of tariff consistency, and labor issues.

Useful comparative running list of the latest overall national tariffs being “announced” today. Notably pretty close to those on April 2 list, if modestly lower. there is a still undefined transhipment level (was 40 for those via Vietnam). Dont forget 232 tariffs and exemptions.

Would seem this LNG demand would be price dependent.

If we thought announcing tariffs via a sign and handout in the rose garden was odd way to communicate, announcing new taxes americans will pay one by one on social media seems even odder, . tariff on cambodia+ laos is identical to the transshipment one for Vietnam.

Interesting thread on greater BRICS investment in renewable energy -definitely a lot more capacity added tho some BRICS countries among those adding coal consumption.

Liquor exports held up better- somewhat puzzlingly stable, with value of exports holding up glohally and recovering from 2024 drops (response to glut). Unlike beer and wine, hard liquor exports from US to Canada are relatively stable. Will have to look into why.

Beer exports are also down but it seems like mostly a decline following some front-loading of trade, perhaps to Europe and Asia, and values are not out of range. US imports of beer, which predominately come from Mexico increased as producers navigated new rules.

India continies to follow dual track of negotiating trade/economic agreement with US and lodging complaints at WTO especially for auto tariffs.

US wine exports remain at epicentre of trade war. Exports are down over 30% y/y in value for Feb-May 2025, mostly due to Canada effective import ban which dropped sales by close to 90%: But sales to Chinese, Japanese and EZ rose in May, most at highest value in 2 yrs.

These designations of tankers are likely another shot across the bow and trying to send message to both Iran and Iraqi officials. This smuggling trade has been alleged for some time but volumes have been murky. Hard to see this enforcement having much impact on volumes delivered

More sanctions on Iran energy -this time on an alleged smuggling network linked to Iraq, where Iranian oil is reportedly shipped out as Iraqi oil. This has been talked about for some time as a possible target. A singapore service provider also targeted.

👇.

A bunch of new Qs on tariffs including whether tariffs would impact well drilling- result was ambiguous though small firms even more worried. This tracks given lower economies of scale.

The great Dallas Fed survey highlights why drill baby drill isnt happening. Activity fell, esp output for oil +gas, outlook uncertainty way up (4ppts), input costs up for oil services (tho eased for E&P). Even with a drifting higher oil price expectation.

Overall, this just means more macro volatility, a lot of challenges complying, and continued foggy conditions as underlying demand hard to measure.

china is offering Cognac producers lower tariffs if they cooperate in investigations and set a minimum price- and implicitly if European leaders adjust EV tariffs. Cognac sales to china are down 40% y/y following tariffs, more than China demand decline.