Rafehyll Capital
@rafeterminal
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Ex-Global Macro & Strategic Positioning PM | Turned Crypto Private Fund Manager
Boston, MA
Joined March 2024
MMFs “Rotation Narrative” - Commentary The $7.3T “wall of cash” narrative flow to risk-asset, doesn’t quite hold up when pared to actual mechanics & historical precedence. MMF outflows lag cuts by ~12 months typically, and even then they rotate into IG credit + duration—not into
⚡️ RESEARCH: After the Fed’s September rate cut, $7T parked in U.S. money-market funds is poised to flow into risk assets. Historical patterns show preemptive easing often fuels crypto and equities.
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BREAKING: President Trump has officially signed a bill ending the US government shutdown. The record setting 43-day government shutdown is over.
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U.S. TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENT TO START FLIGHT CUTS AT 4% FRIDAY, RISING TO 10% NEXT WEEK - SOURCES What media outlet commentaries missed; 2018-2019 Context: Flight Delays, Forcing Deal resolving Government Shutdown in 3-Days [1/25/19] Day 35 of govern. shutdown - Days
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U.S. TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENT TO START FLIGHT CUTS AT 4% FRIDAY, RISING TO 10% NEXT WEEK - SOURCES What media outlet commentaries missed; 2018-2019 Context: Flight Delays, Forcing Deal resolving Government Shutdown in 3-Days [1/25/19] Day 35 of govern. shutdown - Days
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@grok this picture is of all the possible words used in Bitcoin wallet seed phrases—how difficult would it be to guess 12 & 24 word wallet seed phrases from this?
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Currently, U.S. Gold Reserves represent only 2% of the $40 trillion national debt—the lowest ratio in 90 years. This compares to 40% during WWII and 17% in the 1970s.
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Gold-Dollar -> Petrodollar -> Hash-Dollar Hash Dollar will be the natural successor to Bretton Woods (gold-backed) and the petrodollar (oil-backed). In better terms. The Hash Dollar is an energy-standard dollar collateralized by verified compute power, Bitcoin reserves, and
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1st chart: $GLD vs. $SPY since 2004 2nd chart: Gold’s recent run vs. historical rally’s (namely 1970s euphoria) Gold euphoria far from overstretched yet.
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The Hash-Dollar is inevitable as there’s no reserve dominance w/out energy dominance. For now, Gold is the repricing of the risk-free curve vs credit-collateralized reserve dominance. It’s the “time hedge” for this equation. $BTC $MARA
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Gold’s repricing the risk-free rate—the mkt choosing collateral over credit (bc confidence in debt repayment has vanished)
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Gold-Dollar -> Petrodollar -> Hash-Dollar Hash Dollar will be the natural successor to Bretton Woods (gold-backed) and the petrodollar (oil-backed). In better terms. The Hash Dollar is an energy-standard dollar collateralized by verified compute power, Bitcoin reserves, and
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1st chart: $GLD vs. $SPY since 2004 2nd chart: Gold’s recent run vs. historical rally’s (namely 1970s euphoria) Gold euphoria far from overstretched yet.
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Regional banks are back in the spotlight and not for the right reasons. Fraud, private credit, and hidden risks are starting to surface. Read my full FREE article on this here:
thestockmarket.news
Fraud, leverage, and private credit risks are starting to collide and markets are finally paying attention.
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France’s EDF is the largest nuclear generator on Earth. By acquiring Exaion, MARA plugs into that atomic energy base, giving the U.S. proxy access to zero carbon, baseload power in Europe. This is digital barrels in foreign territory. MARA just slipped a Trojan Horse into the
$MARA is acquiring a majority stake in Exaion which is an EDF subsidiary Once the deal is completed, MARA and Exaion will likely have access to monetizing some of EDF's MASSIVE Nuclear power capacity Unfortunately MARA has no stock analysts who are evaluating this potential 🤷♂️
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MMFs “Rotation Narrative” - Commentary The $7.3T “wall of cash” narrative flow to risk-asset, doesn’t quite hold up when pared to actual mechanics & historical precedence. MMF outflows lag cuts by ~12 months typically, and even then they rotate into IG credit + duration—not into
⚡️ RESEARCH: After the Fed’s September rate cut, $7T parked in U.S. money-market funds is poised to flow into risk assets. Historical patterns show preemptive easing often fuels crypto and equities.
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Trump will have the Treasury, the Fed, and the Mint publish a continuous, cryptographically-signed inventory of all gold bars (serials, weight, assay results) and all sovereign BTC holdings, with hashes posted to a public ledger. This will be the FIRST government-verified,
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Assassinations. Riots. Debt and corruption hollowing institutions. It feels like America is entering its Fourth Turning—where the old order collapses and something new is born. Here’s what history + Bitcoin tell us about what comes next 🧵👇
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#BTC Seasonality August & September have historically been weaker months for Bitcoin. October through December has been the strongest quarter, over past 15 years. Gold’s break out and Fed cuts signaled w/ near certainty to close Eo’25–sets a strong 3-month positive trajectory
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