🚨 Buckle up. This week could rewrite the 2025 market script. Housing, jobs, oil, Fed minutes, earnings and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, the Super Bowl of central banking. Here’s the roadmap you can’t afford to miss. (a thread)

Also, I missed this but have a 30 year TIPS and 20 year bond auction this week as well!.

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RT @_Investinq: 🚨 Buckle up. This week could rewrite the 2025 market script. Housing, jobs, oil, Fed minutes, earnings and Powell’s Jackso….

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Bottom line: This week isn’t just data. It’s data + Fed minutes + Jackson Hole + earnings. The outcomes could steer Q3 and maybe the rest of 2025. Buckle up.

Earnings This Week. Mon: Palo Alto (PANW), BHP, XP.Tue: Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), XPeng (XPEV), Opera (OPRA).Wed: Target (TGT), Estee Lauder (EL), TJX, Baidu (BIDU), Analog Devices (ADI).Thu: Walmart (WMT), Zoom (ZM), Workday (WDAY), Intuit (INTU), Ross (ROST), Bilibili

Why it matters: Powell’s Jackson Hole speeches have reset market expectations before. If he stresses slowing growth → dovish → cuts priced in, yields fall, growth stocks rip. If he warns of sticky inflation → hawkish → yields rise, cyclicals win.

Friday: Jackson Hole Symposium. The Kansas City Fed’s annual gathering of central bankers, often called the “Super Bowl of central banking.”. Powell speaks 10AM ET with a keynote + press conference.

Thursday also: Existing Home Sales. Tracks closed deals on existing homes. A slower read than starts, but key for real estate, wealth, and spending. Low supply can hold prices up even as volumes drop → affordability squeeze.

If Services & Composite stay strong → hawkish tilt, “higher-for-longer” rates, yields up, USD firm. If both cool → growth scare, dovish tilt, bonds rally, USD weakens.

July recap:. • Manufacturing: 49.8 (contraction, weakest this year).• Services: 55.7 (7-month high).• Composite: 55.1 (fastest growth of 2025). Factories weak, but services are carrying the economy.

Thursday also: S&P PMIs (9:45 ET). PMIs are surveys where >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction. • Manufacturing = factories, supply chains.• Services = finance, retail, transport.• Composite = both combined.

If claims rise → labor weakening, layoffs building → bonds rally, USD softens, Fed cut bias grows. If claims stay low → labor strong, yields firm, USD strengthens, Fed patience stretches.

Thursday: Jobless Claims (8:30 ET). Initial claims = new unemployment applications. Continued claims = people still on benefits. This is the fastest real-time read on the labor market.

Powell’s press conference after was vague. Minutes will show how split the Fed is. • Dovish → stocks up, yields fall, USD weaker. • Hawkish → yields up, growth pressured.

Wednesday’s main event: FOMC Minutes (2:00 ET). Think of minutes as the “transcript” of July’s meeting. Fed held at 4.25–4.50%. Vote was 9–2, with 2 governors pushing for cuts, the first dual dissent since 1993.

Why it matters: Oil flows straight into inflation. Higher crude = “stickier” inflation → bonds pressured, Fed more hawkish. Lower crude = easing inflation → dovish tilt, easier path for cuts.

Wednesday: EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 ET). This measures weekly U.S. commercial crude stockpiles. • Bigger build (supply ↑) → oil prices drop.• Bigger draw (supply ↓) → oil prices rise. Energy stocks follow crude closely.

Market impact:. If strong → homebuilders, materials, retail pop, USD firms, bond yields rise (cuts delayed). If weak → equities wobble, bonds rally (yields fall), USD softens, and rate-cut bets build.

June recap:. • Total starts: +4.6% → 1.321M.• Single-family: –4.6% → 883k (lowest since Jul ’24).• Multi-family: +30.6% → 414k.• Permits (future pipeline) barely up, SF permits –3.7%. Translation → SF weakness is still dragging the market.

Tuesday: Housing Starts (8:30 ET). This tracks new residential builds (seasonally adjusted annual rate). • Single-family = houses (core demand signal).• Multi-family = apartments/condos (volatile). Housing is a key driver of jobs and growth.